How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
Irish politicians have a problem if they wish to remain in the EU/conform fully to what they are being told to do....
Rather than draw the imaginary line down the Irish Sea, Barnier could of course suggest drawing it around Eire. In terms of trade and other details that would probably work far better than what he's suggested thus far. But that doesn't help the project and Leo probably wouldn't like it one bit.
Why should Barnier suggest anything?Rather than draw the imaginary line down the Irish Sea, Barnier could of course suggest drawing it around Eire. In terms of trade and other details that would probably work far better than what he's suggested thus far. But that doesn't help the project and Leo probably wouldn't like it one bit.
It’s the Tories problem, let them sort it out.
Very entertaining
alfie2244 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Lord Wolfson is also the CEO of Next that well known fashion retailer that also sells furniture, which includes the Bernie range of dining room and office chairs available in both leather and for the less well off, faux leather.
I mentioned the range Bernie) as rather bizarrely the range featured quite heavily in a Brexit thread.
I mentioned the range Bernie) as rather bizarrely the range featured quite heavily in a Brexit thread.
Jimboka said:
Why should Barnier suggest anything?
It’s the Tories problem, let them sort it out.
Very entertaining
Quite. Barnier has no skin in the game. The only people who do, where that border is concerned, are the UK and Eire.It’s the Tories problem, let them sort it out.
Very entertaining
Though I can think of 40bn reasons why Barnier and his paymasters might think a bit harder about it.
loafer123 said:
slow_poke said:
Leo's job is safe enough.
This whole NI business is a complete red herring and is only stalling the negotiations of a properly decent Brexit.
May should tell the DUP to swallow the border and smile about it because that'll enable a better brexit deal for GB. Their alternative is another GE and the possibility of Shinner running dog Comrade Corbyn becoming PM, and what would that leave to?
Someone's got to take one for the Brexit team, it might as well be the DUPpers.
You've never been to NI, have you?This whole NI business is a complete red herring and is only stalling the negotiations of a properly decent Brexit.
May should tell the DUP to swallow the border and smile about it because that'll enable a better brexit deal for GB. Their alternative is another GE and the possibility of Shinner running dog Comrade Corbyn becoming PM, and what would that leave to?
Someone's got to take one for the Brexit team, it might as well be the DUPpers.
He pointed out that the DUP wouldn’t likely vote in a move that would allow labour anywhere near gov but they’d revisit the confidence and supply agreement and propose to strip out certain elements.
It’s an interesting variant scenario: keep propping up the gov as a corpse till brexit day without allowing the gov to lose a meaningful vote.
Slowpoke: I think you are overestimating the fragility of the Westminster situation. The most likely scenarios are not that somehow the DUP folds or is told to do one. Much more likely is that the DUP continues to work with the tories, and negotiation stalls. May might lose the confidence of her party, but I’m guessing that that is why she is rowing back. If she was to try and move on chequers again she will probably face a leadership challenge. A likely replacement would have to tack towards a FTA option. The EU won’t bite, but the point is that while the tories and DUP are aligned then no confidence is almost impossible, and time drifts us towards March. 5 months.. tick tock Leo...
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Murph7355 said:
Quite. Barnier has no skin in the game. The only people who do, where that border is concerned, are the UK and Eire.
Though I can think of 40bn reasons why Barnier and his paymasters might think a bit harder about it.
My understanding was that the Irish government has asked for, and received, support from the rest of the EU on their position Though I can think of 40bn reasons why Barnier and his paymasters might think a bit harder about it.
The US was heavily involved in the GFA, so precedent for third parties to have skin in the game
Worth reading why the DUP are not going to shift:
https://capx.co/dont-bet-on-the-dup-blinking-first...
https://capx.co/dont-bet-on-the-dup-blinking-first...
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Leonard Stanley said:
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
The EU insisted on open/ transparent talks from the start, (ISTR that the UK wanted closed door talks), because of the increased difficulty (on the EU side) of communication of so many interested parties. It’s been a rule/ checklist based process by the EU side, vs an internal political bunfight on the UK side
If the EU was similarly riven, I would have expected much more politics on their side. But I get the feeling the EU 27 have mostly shrugged their shoulders, and are focusing much more on other issues (Hungary, Italy)
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Is it that much different really?For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Change your EU room for Chequers and you get the same result.
The only difference is we have more interest in what is going on (public and press) and more internal squabbling. The EU seem united.
gooner1 said:
alfie2244 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Lord Wolfson is also the CEO of Next that well known fashion retailer that also sells furniture, which includes the Bernie range of dining room and office chairs available in both leather and for the less well off, faux leather.
I mentioned the range Bernie) as rather bizarrely the range featured quite heavily in a Brexit thread.
I mentioned the range Bernie) as rather bizarrely the range featured quite heavily in a Brexit thread.
Leonard Stanley said:
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Transparent and democratic=strong and stable
Leonard Stanley said:
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
It occurred to me yesterday, with pretty much all the talk being around the Irish border, the place of NI within the UK, with the sideshow of Ms Sturgeon suggesting that perhaps Scotland would also like some "special treatment", that there was a little irony in the fact that our leaving the larger Union was being used by politicians of (most of) the constituent parts of our smaller Union to gain advantage if possible.... When do Wales show their hand?
frisbee said:
Leonard Stanley said:
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Transparent and democratic=strong and stable
frisbee said:
Leonard Stanley said:
Ridgemont said:
One further comment, and I’ve alluded to it before, but it’s worth repeating.
For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Excellent post.For all the noise around how awful the political situation at Westminster, and the general UK system, is, I have to say I’m encouraged.
The reality of the referendum was that it was 52/48. It was a close run thing. The process has been through judicial review, it’s going via permutations through Parliament. It’s painful and seemingly never ending.
But it’s transparent and democratic.
Meanwhile every couple of months heads of gov file into a room with Barnier, do a round of hands and let him carry on.
We may all feel at sea and discombobulated right now but there is something inevervating about democracy red in tooth and claw and something to be proud of. Eventually.
Transparent and democratic=strong and stable
In the UK, the question is 'will Parliament vote for that, will the people destroy the Tories for that?" In the EU, it's "Do Merkel and macron approve?"
Which I think was the fundamental point being made.
Roboraver said:
Jeeze
Nissan, Ford, AstraZeneca, Airbus, Siemens, Toyota, BMW, etc, etc,
The list gets longer and longer every day and still the Brexit lemmings want to jump over the cliff and take everyone with them.
If only Mars was habitable....
The list has not changed since the referendum. *sigh Nissan, Ford, AstraZeneca, Airbus, Siemens, Toyota, BMW, etc, etc,
The list gets longer and longer every day and still the Brexit lemmings want to jump over the cliff and take everyone with them.
If only Mars was habitable....
Roboraver said:
Jeeze
Nissan, Ford, AstraZeneca, Airbus, Siemens, Toyota, BMW, etc, etc,
The list gets longer and longer every day and still the Brexit lemmings want to jump over the cliff and take everyone with them.
If only Mars was habitable....
They arent going anywhere. It takes decades to build the infastructure and expertise of these huge companies listed. you cant just move the factory to eastern europe. Nissan, Ford, AstraZeneca, Airbus, Siemens, Toyota, BMW, etc, etc,
The list gets longer and longer every day and still the Brexit lemmings want to jump over the cliff and take everyone with them.
If only Mars was habitable....
Thats a list of companies that will still be here after brexit. Infact its a list of companies who will be dictating the brexit trade deal. business has far more power in these negotiatons than we think.
wisbech said:
My understanding was that the Irish government has asked for, and received, support from the rest of the EU on their position
The US was heavily involved in the GFA, so precedent for third parties to have skin in the game
From where did you get that understanding? Is there an official document or some such? I'm genuinely interested as my view is that the Irish border position is a mere pawn in a game generated by the EU (rather than the Irish). The US was heavily involved in the GFA, so precedent for third parties to have skin in the game
The EU has played it brilliantly (though when you're playing against May, it's doubtful that you have to be that good at anything). If LeoV generated the idea, possibly thinking it would cause us to cave and thus protecting their trade with the UK, that strikes me as a very risky game for him to play (perhaps Olly Robbins is advising him too?).
As for the US and the GFA...that's a totally incomparable situation. Almost the inverse.
wisbech said:
...
If the EU was similarly riven, I would have expected much more politics on their side. But I get the feeling the EU 27 have mostly shrugged their shoulders, and are focusing much more on other issues (Hungary, Italy)
We are unaware of what the EU is sharing amongst member states thus far. Their approach seems to be banking on our capitulation on key matters so that they do not have to deal with the thornier problems our leaving will cause.If the EU was similarly riven, I would have expected much more politics on their side. But I get the feeling the EU 27 have mostly shrugged their shoulders, and are focusing much more on other issues (Hungary, Italy)
As an example, the only bit of reporting I've seen on the budget gap suggests that they will most definitely be similarly riven.
If our contributions disappear (as they will, to a greater extent...though the EU are endeavouring to avoid this), my reading from a while back was that the EU does not want to trim its budget, and none of the other 27 want their contributions to increase/benefits diminished. Whilst fully accepting it is none of our business, it will be interesting to see how united they are on that one particular front once reality dawns.
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