How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 5)
Discussion
braddo said:
Vanden Saab said:
braddo said:
The UK does not have a net penny to its name. In fact it owes 200 Trillion pennies.
But we're in a really strong position to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. The one Brexit economist admits his no-deal Brexit dream means that manufacturing will die in the UK. Not sure what we're going to sell to the rest of the world then... Not a single country will wring concessions out of the UK in its desperation to conclude trade deals after it leaves the EU - because trade negotiation isn't hard headed self interested negotiation....
Why bother asking annoying questions like this. Brexit is simple, just get on with it!
Classic soundbite quoting.... 10/10...But we're in a really strong position to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. The one Brexit economist admits his no-deal Brexit dream means that manufacturing will die in the UK. Not sure what we're going to sell to the rest of the world then... Not a single country will wring concessions out of the UK in its desperation to conclude trade deals after it leaves the EU - because trade negotiation isn't hard headed self interested negotiation....
Why bother asking annoying questions like this. Brexit is simple, just get on with it!
It is like suggesting that we have an advantage because English is the language of international relations... True but totally irrelevant to any negotiation.
Einion Yrth said:
soupdragon1 said:
Einion Yrth said:
A cross party move to frustrate exit from the EU? Likely to have some consequences I'd have thought.
I didn't say that.loafer123 said:
Constructive replies only, please....
Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
The Political Declaration is not legally binding so it doesn't matter what you put in it.Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
loafer123 said:
Constructive replies only, please....
Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
Just picking up on point number 3. It may seem ludicrous that we cannot exit the backstop unilaterally, but the flip side to that is that neither can the EU. Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
Would you want to be in a situation where the EU could suddenly change their mind and remove the backstop/agreement at their will?
braddo said:
braddo said:
Sway said:
Excellent. How much "knuckling down" do they expect to have to do to unwind €2Trillion of off balance sheet, non repayable debt to them?
They have little to worry about compared to the UK's long term position.IMF: UK’s public finances among the weakest in the world
"The findings also revealed that the UK government has less than £3 trn in assets and £5 trn of liabilities, revealing a negative net worth of more than £2 trn."
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2018/10/imf-u...
But we're in a really strong position to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. The one Brexit economist admits his no-deal Brexit dream means that manufacturing will die in the UK. Not sure what we're going to sell to the rest of the world then... Not a single country will wring concessions out of the UK in its desperation to conclude trade deals after it leaves the EU - because trade negotiation isn't hard headed self interested negotiation....
Why bother asking annoying questions like this. Brexit is simple, just get on with it!
I assume you read the link you shared - how much of the issue is due to reclassifying high Street banks as public sector (with their attendant liabilities), and also how they 'hope to improve the accuracy of such estimates' in future assessments...
Further, what does this have to do with Target2 - the analysis done against the eurozone nations won't include Target2 imbalances, as they aren't considered debts.
Yet, they do represent fiscal transfers from one nation to another. No interest, no requirement for repayment - but an expectation that they'll all balance out in the end. They're not...
Then you go on to obfusticate by claiming that Minford expects UK manufacturing to die. He has never said that - what he has said is that he proposes to eliminate import tariffs, as they are subsidies for uncompetitive business - and that some industries have become so uncompetitive they are reliant on those protections.
Come on chap - whataboutism and false testimonies are poor form.
Dr Jekyll said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
jsf said:
In case you missed it, the major reason to leave the EU was to trade more freely with the rest of the world.
Not according to the post vote surveys it wasn't.You can't reinvent history to suit your own purposes.
But remember, it would be undemocratic to ask them why they voted and what they wanted to happen next.
cookie118 said:
Just picking up on point number 3. It may seem ludicrous that we cannot exit the backstop unilaterally, but the flip side to that is that neither can the EU.
Would you want to be in a situation where the EU could suddenly change their mind and remove the backstop/agreement at their will?
They're expecting a deal heavily biased in our favour because they were lied to that we held all the cards. Would you want to be in a situation where the EU could suddenly change their mind and remove the backstop/agreement at their will?
Anything else will be spun as us being "punished".
cookie118 said:
Just picking up on point number 3. It may seem ludicrous that we cannot exit the backstop unilaterally, but the flip side to that is that neither can the EU.
Would you want to be in a situation where the EU could suddenly change their mind and remove the backstop/agreement at their will?
A fair question.Would you want to be in a situation where the EU could suddenly change their mind and remove the backstop/agreement at their will?
There are very few Treaties which do not have a route to exit.
Certainly it shouldn’t be made easy, but if you don’t allow for it, one party can hold another to ransom.
That is a real risk here, as the ability to move on from the Backstop is subjective, based upon the EU having to agree that the permenant solution is acceptable.
mx5nut said:
Tony427 said:
It will be inconvenient, but everyone will cope. It is in fact how we trade with the rest of the world.
About 57% of our exports and 66% of our imports do not happen under WTO rules...loafer123 said:
Constructive replies only, please....
Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
I think point 1 was very much pushed for, but has been met with a brick wall from the EU. I can't see them moving on it.Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
Point 2 is possible perhaps
Point 3, another EU brick wall that won't move I think
Point 4 - due to Irish stance, and how that's received in Ireland, no matter how good the solution, I can't see any movement at all...the GFA card will continue to be played any time that gets mentioned
I think those cabinet members need to refresh themselves on the past 2 years of negotiations. They want to explore paths that have already been explored and won't lead to anything, except more time wasted and hard Brexit risk increases further. I honestly think T May has got as good as we'll get, so we just need to decide if we proceed with it, or take the other directions, no deal etc.
soupdragon1 said:
loafer123 said:
Constructive replies only, please....
Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
I think point 1 was very much pushed for, but has been met with a brick wall from the EU. I can't see them moving on it.Listening to Today this morning, 5 Cabinet Ministers are seeking to drive changes to make the agreement acceptable.
Notwithstanding resistance from the EU, what is everyone’s view on changes that would make it acceptable?
I would suggest;
1 Defining the maximum extension to the Transition Period (20XX)
2 Making the arbitration truly independent by reference to an internationally recognised body
3 Including a unilateral exit clause to the Backstop - it is ludicrous not to have one
4 Including the acceptance in the Political Declaration of technology as a solution to the Irish border issue, with reference to some international measures of success
5 Including, in the Political Declaration, the route by which we can ensure we are able to do our own trade deals
Views welcome...
Point 2 is possible perhaps
Point 3, another EU brick wall that won't move I think
Point 4 - due to Irish stance, and how that's received in Ireland, no matter how good the solution, I can't see any movement at all...the GFA card will continue to be played any time that gets mentioned
I think those cabinet members need to refresh themselves on the past 2 years of negotiations. They want to explore paths that have already been explored and won't lead to anything, except more time wasted and hard Brexit risk increases further. I honestly think T May has got as good as we'll get, so we just need to decide if we proceed with it, or take the other directions, no deal etc.
Basically, nothing can ever change in Ireland from now and that’s the exact reason we are where we are.
Oh and the DUP won’t accept the border in the Irish Sea.
The other points are secondary;
It’s;
Border in Ireland. Nope
Border in the Sea. Nope.
Whole UK in C.U. Nope.
Or no Brexit. Nope.
Nothing will move until one of the above do.
soupdragon1 said:
I think point 1 was very much pushed for, but has been met with a brick wall from the EU. I can't see them moving on it.
Point 2 is possible perhaps
Point 3, another EU brick wall that won't move I think
Point 4 - due to Irish stance, and how that's received in Ireland, no matter how good the solution, I can't see any movement at all...the GFA card will continue to be played any time that gets mentioned
I think those cabinet members need to refresh themselves on the past 2 years of negotiations. They want to explore paths that have already been explored and won't lead to anything, except more time wasted and hard Brexit risk increases further. I honestly think T May has got as good as we'll get, so we just need to decide if we proceed with it, or take the other directions, no deal etc.
Thanks.Point 2 is possible perhaps
Point 3, another EU brick wall that won't move I think
Point 4 - due to Irish stance, and how that's received in Ireland, no matter how good the solution, I can't see any movement at all...the GFA card will continue to be played any time that gets mentioned
I think those cabinet members need to refresh themselves on the past 2 years of negotiations. They want to explore paths that have already been explored and won't lead to anything, except more time wasted and hard Brexit risk increases further. I honestly think T May has got as good as we'll get, so we just need to decide if we proceed with it, or take the other directions, no deal etc.
On point 1, I don’t understand your point...it has to be defined, as 20XX is clearly yet to be filled in and can’t be left in.
Your commentary on point 4 is exactly why point 3 is required. It is a reasonably held belief that the Political Declaration and ability to move on from the Backstop is a sham and that there is no intention to do so. Because acceptability is subjective, we can never agree to move on unless, in extremis, we can threaten to leave the agreement.
p1stonhead said:
The GFA will trump everything.
Basically, nothing can ever change in Ireland from now and that’s the exact reason we are where we are.
Oh and the DUP won’t accept the border in the Irish Sea.
The other points are secondary;
It’s;
Border in Ireland. Nope
Border in the Sea. Nope.
Whole UK in C.U. Nope.
Or no Brexit. Nope.
Nothing will move until one of the above do.
I would think that a bi-lateral local treaty would easily deal with the issues in real life. Basically, nothing can ever change in Ireland from now and that’s the exact reason we are where we are.
Oh and the DUP won’t accept the border in the Irish Sea.
The other points are secondary;
It’s;
Border in Ireland. Nope
Border in the Sea. Nope.
Whole UK in C.U. Nope.
Or no Brexit. Nope.
Nothing will move until one of the above do.
Every border around the world has its own local sensitivities - look at the Italians who are about to get Swiss dual nationality, for example and live on either side of that border.
To my mind, the issue should be dealt with locally, and shouldn’t create a much worse outcome for hundreds of millions of people.
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