Theresa May (Vol.2)
Discussion
EddieSteadyGo said:
SNIP
So in the scenario May's deal is defeated, an amendment could be tabled which said crudely, "the government must extend A50 and negotiate again with the EU". And it could even vote on specific ammendments as to what part of the deal should be 'improved' - and that won't mean making it a harder brexit.
So if you follow the legislative timetable, the parlimetary numbers and the obligations on the government, you can see why 'no deal' doesn't happen.
So Parliament sends the homework back and the government takes its time negotiating and either time runs out or the amendments are unpalatable. And bear in mind that Government runs the Parliamentary timetable. So in the scenario May's deal is defeated, an amendment could be tabled which said crudely, "the government must extend A50 and negotiate again with the EU". And it could even vote on specific ammendments as to what part of the deal should be 'improved' - and that won't mean making it a harder brexit.
So if you follow the legislative timetable, the parlimetary numbers and the obligations on the government, you can see why 'no deal' doesn't happen.
What then?
davepoth said:
EddieSteadyGo said:
It's also a little frustrating to keep reading about 'no deal' being the default option when in fact, due to the voting schedule, this would also need to be agreed by MPs, and the majority in Parliament are against this happening.
I'm confused by this - can you explain a little further? My understanding was that the 29th of March is baked into the legislation already, so absent any positive action by parliament to alter that the UK will be leaving on that date, deal or no deal. What further legislation or votes need to be completed to enable no deal, in your opinion?Which means Parliament has a legal right to a vote and can take any action they wish, including tabling any amendment they would like. And I set out my view of the parliamentary numbers which suggests the majority will not support 'no deal'. Plus you have the weight of the senior civil service against 'no deal'.
So in theory, 'no deal' is possible. But in reality, it won't happen.
andymadmak said:
For a start, there is the Schengen issue. So just being an EU citizen does not mean that your suicide bomber can stroll into Eire, or even into the UK mainland for that matter. He will have to show his passport (or similar) to get to either place and if he is an identified risk he will (hopefully ) be stopped by either the Garda or British police.
You do not need a passport to enter the UK from NI. The ferry company requires ID but not photo ID a utility bill will do.psi310398 said:
So Parliament sends the homework back and the government takes its time negotiating and either time runs out or the amendments are unpalatable. And bear in mind that Government runs the Parliamentary timetable.
What then?
Bearing in mind the government has decided to go for May's deal, which means so have the civil service (and of course in reality they were the ones who negotiated it in the first place).What then?
There are a variety of possible scenarios when/if May's deal is defeated. My own view is that they end up with an extension to A50 at a cost of circa £10bn, and a second referendum.
BlackLabel said:
May's plan to get her deal through parliament seems to be to threaten pro leave MPs with 'it's my deal or no Brexit at all' while at the same time insinuating to pro remain MPs 'it's my deal or WTO Brexit'. If it works she really is a genius.
As the old adage goes, "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king".EddieSteadyGo said:
Bearing in mind the government has decided to go for May's deal, which means so have the civil service (and of course in reality they were the ones who negotiated it in the first place).
There are a variety of possible scenarios when/if May's deal is defeated. My own view is that they end up with an extension to A50 at a cost of circa £10bn, and a second referendum.
The EU don't want an extension to A50.There are a variety of possible scenarios when/if May's deal is defeated. My own view is that they end up with an extension to A50 at a cost of circa £10bn, and a second referendum.
It would bring the UK into the 2019 EU elections.
EddieSteadyGo said:
Bearing in mind the government has decided to go for May's deal, which means so have the civil service (and of course in reality they were the ones who negotiated it in the first place).
There are a variety of possible scenarios when/if May's deal is defeated. My own view is that they end up with an extension to A50 at a cost of circa £10bn, and a second referendum.
But if May's deal goes down, and if the DUP demand her head as price for continuing to support the Conservative government on anything, the Tories will chuck her overboard because they fear an election tomorrow more than in 2022, no? There are a variety of possible scenarios when/if May's deal is defeated. My own view is that they end up with an extension to A50 at a cost of circa £10bn, and a second referendum.
Or do you think the Morgans and Rudds of this world will cross the House and defect to Labour? Can't see that playing very well in well-heeled Cheshire or amongst Tories in highly marginal Hastings...it would take fewer than 350 Tory supporters in Hastings to stay in bed or vote for someone else and she's gone.
psi310398 said:
But if May's deal goes down, and if the DUP demand her head as price for continuing to support the Conservative government on anything, the Tories will chuck her overboard because they fear an election tomorrow more than in 2022, no?
Or do you think the Morgans and Rudds of this world will cross the House and defect to Labour? Can't see that playing very well in well-heeled Cheshire or amongst Tories in highly marginal Hastings...it would take fewer than 350 Tory supporters in Hastings to stay in bed or vote for someone else and she's gone.
I don't think the deal with the DUP has much life left in it whatever happens. They have spent most of the £1bn I believe already. And there isn't a version of a harder brexit deal which can pass through parliament anyway. Or do you think the Morgans and Rudds of this world will cross the House and defect to Labour? Can't see that playing very well in well-heeled Cheshire or amongst Tories in highly marginal Hastings...it would take fewer than 350 Tory supporters in Hastings to stay in bed or vote for someone else and she's gone.
EddieSteadyGo said:
I don't think the deal with the DUP has much life left in it whatever happens. They have spent most of the £1bn I believe already. And there isn't a version of a harder brexit deal which can pass through parliament anyway.
£570m as of last week. And you haven't yet answered what needs to pass the house for no deal to happen...?Mrr T said:
andymadmak said:
For a start, there is the Schengen issue. So just being an EU citizen does not mean that your suicide bomber can stroll into Eire, or even into the UK mainland for that matter. He will have to show his passport (or similar) to get to either place and if he is an identified risk he will (hopefully ) be stopped by either the Garda or British police.
You do not need a passport to enter the UK from NI. The ferry company requires ID but not photo ID a utility bill will do.The U.K./ROI external borders are policed jointly .. the CTA allows movement freely between ROI/UK for Nationals of both nations and Aliens that have passed entry requirements to the CTA
NI and Mainland UK are the same country
Earthdweller said:
Of course you don’t .. youre in the same country!
The U.K./ROI external borders are policed jointly .. the CTA allows movement freely between ROI/UK for Nationals of both nations and Aliens that have passed entry requirements to the CTA
NI and Mainland UK are the same country
Just different centuriesThe U.K./ROI external borders are policed jointly .. the CTA allows movement freely between ROI/UK for Nationals of both nations and Aliens that have passed entry requirements to the CTA
NI and Mainland UK are the same country
!Mrr T said:
andymadmak said:
For a start, there is the Schengen issue. So just being an EU citizen does not mean that your suicide bomber can stroll into Eire, or even into the UK mainland for that matter. He will have to show his passport (or similar) to get to either place and if he is an identified risk he will (hopefully ) be stopped by either the Garda or British police.
You do not need a passport to enter the UK from NI. The ferry company requires ID but not photo ID a utility bill will do.All others, EU or not, need a passport.
“Ireland/Britain Routes
Irish Ferries recommend all passengers bring a passport with them. Irish and British citizens do not strictly require a passport to travel between the two countries - some form of identification is however required. Please note that all nationalities except Irish or British require passports. Non-EU nationals should check with the British or Irish embassy before travelling as they may also need a visa. Passengers who turn up at our ports without valid documentation may not be allowed to enter either Ireland or Britain.”
Helicopter123 said:
Looks like May has seen off JRM and the self styled ERG.
Will they now fall in line behind the deal?
Anyone who wants Brexit has a simply choice - support May's deal or risk a second election and probable 2nd referendum. Will they now fall in line behind the deal?
But this is quite a diatribe leaked from Nadine Dorris to the ERG on their WhatsApp group.
Worth reading in full, but the main point for me is when she says "We either change the PM or face an election".
Looks like she realises 'no deal' isn't going to happen, even though I've no doubt that would be her preference.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/21/nadine-dorries-...
EddieSteadyGo said:
Anyone who wants Brexit has a simply choice - support May's deal or risk a second election and probable 2nd referendum.
But this is quite a diatribe leaked from Nadine Dorris to the ERG on their WhatsApp group.
Worth reading in full, but the main point for me is when she says "We either change the PM or face an election".
Looks like she realises 'no deal' isn't going to happen, even though I've no doubt that would be her preference.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/21/nadine-dorries-...
Well, I doff my hat to the lady. Well said!But this is quite a diatribe leaked from Nadine Dorris to the ERG on their WhatsApp group.
Worth reading in full, but the main point for me is when she says "We either change the PM or face an election".
Looks like she realises 'no deal' isn't going to happen, even though I've no doubt that would be her preference.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/21/nadine-dorries-...
EddieSteadyGo said:
Helicopter123 said:
Looks like May has seen off JRM and the self styled ERG.
Will they now fall in line behind the deal?
Anyone who wants Brexit has a simply choice - support May's deal or risk a second election and probable 2nd referendum. Will they now fall in line behind the deal?
But this is quite a diatribe leaked from Nadine Dorris to the ERG on their WhatsApp group.
Worth reading in full, but the main point for me is when she says "We either change the PM or face an election".
Looks like she realises 'no deal' isn't going to happen, even though I've no doubt that would be her preference.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/21/nadine-dorries-...
The deal will be as good as it gets for Brexit supporters. I've been saying this for some time. I'm not sure anyone left holding out for "unicorns"
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