Theresa May (Vol.2)

[alfie2244]

kurt535 said:

alfie2244 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

Interesting stat today on radio: 1m leave voters have left the planet in the last 2 years and 1m younger generation are now eligible to vote

I can see why brexit voters always get angry and fundamentally scared at May calling a 2nd referendum.

Also, why do brexit voters always threaten violence if the vote is overturned???

The examples of such are where?

Ive heard it a few times on tv and radio now, including this morning; this one was sent to me by a Brit pal in norway watching events. there is another more recent one in the last few days but Im short of time to hunt his email link out at the moment.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1031831/Brexit-n...

Common occurrence Kurt, ask for a citation none forthcoming, see "Big Pharma company in Surrey".

Good post.

You couple of doddery mugs! He sent me two links.....one was added.

[bitchstewie]

p1stonhead said:

I think one thing is clear - everyone hates referendums now.

Quite.

I find it comically tragic that this thing has consumed British politics to the extent where our home grown issues simply aren't being sorted out.

Honestly, if you lined people up prior to the referendum and asked them "What's the single biggest issue fking your life up today?" I doubt you'd get many saying "The EU".

Yet somehow it's become the centre of our political universe to the detriment of so many other issues.

[Polite M135 driver]

bhstewie said:

I'm sure there will be some, but I'd expect there to be some trouble from some extremes whatever happens.

Main thing is people protest within the law and if not it's nipped in the bud.

it's ok though, the hard leavers are mostly 70+ so the police will just have to wait until they need the toilet again for it all to calm down.

Smash up the bingo halls and all those polish corner shops, symbols of EU oppression.

Edited by Polite M135 driver on Monday 17th December 14:46

[mattmurdock]

p1stonhead said:

I think one thing is clear - everyone hates referendums now.

Yup, the whole idea of referendums in a parliamentary democracy is lunacy. The entire point of that system is that our personal sovereignty is passed to parliament via our vote, and then they make the important decisions, which is after all their job to do. If they don't make decisions we like, we then vote for someone else next time.

As we are seeing now, even the people whose job it is to make these decisions have underestimated the complexity of Brexit, so what hope had the general public?

[Durzel]

Is the assumption that 51.9% of the Leave votes were for "no deal" ? I mean, the question was - simply - as has been said already to leave the European Union. That seems unambiguously "no deal" to me.

TM's deal doesn't deliver that, as far as I can see. It appears to be a third option that no one voted for. Neither Remain nor Leave.

Am I being simple or is it not the case that the "desired" outcome for 51.9% of the population is to leave with no deal, which is the default when Article 50 was triggered?

I wanted Remain but at this point I'm pretty sick of all the posturing and duplicity involved. I just want it to be over with. I have zero confidence that our current government or TM can deliver a pizza let alone Brexit in any shape or form.

Lord knows what Corbyn is up to, it seems he is just content to stand on the sidelines - not committing to anything for fear of alienating some voters whilst looking weak and indecisive to pretty much everyone.

[p1stonhead]

bhstewie said:

p1stonhead said:

I think one thing is clear - everyone hates referendums now.

Quite.

I find it comically tragic that this thing has consumed British politics to the extent where our home grown issues simply aren't being sorted out.

Honestly, if you lined people up prior to the referendum and asked them "What's the single biggest issue fking your life up today?" I doubt you'd get many saying "The EU".

Yet somehow it's become the centre of our political universe to the detriment of so many other issues.

I was thinking this the other day. Is anyone actually doing anything else? Education, Health, Infrastucture?

Brexit is all consuming.

Even if we come out of this dancing, we may have fked ourselves by ignoring everything else for 5 years.

[SpeckledJim]

JagLover said:

SpeckledJim said:

With the skew towards Leave amongst older people, and their recognised habit of dying, I'd guess at the following:

560k dead per year
200k didn't vote
140k of them voted Remain
220k of them voted Leave.

So in the three years since the vote, that's 660k off the Leave vote, and 420k off the Remain vote, a nett difference of 240,000.

So, not a lot.

Adopting similar but opposite figures for the incoming youth (which is generous, because they can't be arsed to vote) and you've a swing to Remain of 480,000. So nowhere near enough to change the result in isolation.

But...

Over those three years every single person who voted (but didn't die) has moved three years further out of the Remain 'heartland' and three years closer to the Leave 'heartland'. How many of those tens of millions of people have crossed their own personal dotted line during those three years?

A: Some.

Unless of course dying is a judgement from the Lord for voting to leave the divine EU

More seriously I have seen this statistic trotted out a lot over the past few weeks, but with no real statistical analysis behind it. Many of those who have died would have been in care homes in June 2016 where they are unlikely to have a particularly high turnout.

Quite so. The turnout amongst pensioners in general was the highest of any age group, I believe, but the community of people who have died in the last three years will include a larger than average number of the disabled / bed-bound / infirm / etc who may be less likely to vote.

Even so, the popular debating angle that everyone over fifty voted Leave is a nonsense. It was something like 62:38 or something. Literally millions of pensioners voted Remain.

[Durzel]

SpeckledJim said:

With the skew towards Leave amongst older people, and their recognised habit of dying, I'd guess at the following:

560k dead per year
200k didn't vote
140k of them voted Remain
220k of them voted Leave.

So in the three years since the vote, that's 660k off the Leave vote, and 420k off the Remain vote, a nett difference of 240,000.

So, not a lot.

Adopting similar but opposite figures for the incoming youth (which is generous, because they can't be arsed to vote) and you've a swing to Remain of 480,000. So nowhere near enough to change the result in isolation.

But...

Over those three years every single person who voted (but didn't die) has moved three years further out of the Remain 'heartland' and three years closer to the Leave 'heartland'. How many of those tens of millions of people have crossed their own personal dotted line during those three years?

A: Some.

There is also the factor that it is posited that a lot of people didn't vote because they assumed Remain was a sure thing. After all, one choice in the referendum was for "no change".

[saaby93]

Dont those stats confirm that death is skewed towards older people?

[saaby93]

Durzel said:

Is the assumption that 51.9% of the Leave votes were for "no deal" ? I mean, the question was - simply - as has been said already to leave the European Union. That seems unambiguously "no deal" to me.

No the referendum was about leave or remain
It's unambiguous 51.9% were for leave
There was always going to be a deal of some sort but that wasnt dealt with by the referendum

For the current carborundum
'No deal' just means we'll sort out some deals later
'Deal' means we'll go for the border/EUtrade deal on the table and sort out the rest of the deals later

So no the referendum was nothing about deal or no deal
Maybe its the name of a tv programme

[Camoradi]

p1stonhead said:

I was thinking this the other day. Is anyone actually doing anything else? Education, Health, Infrastucture?

Brexit is all consuming.

Even if we come out of this dancing, we may have fked ourselves by ignoring everything else for 5 years.

I too look forward to the day when Brexit is settled and our politicians are able to focus all their attention on making a complete fk up of other important issues

[SpeckledJim]

Durzel said:

There is also the factor that it is posited that a lot of people didn't vote because they assumed Remain was a sure thing. After all, one choice in the referendum was for "no change".

There are Remainers who didn't vote because they didn't think they could lose, and Leavers who didn't vote because they didn't think they could win.

They're known in psephology circles as a useless bunch of divheads.

[SpeckledJim]

saaby93 said:

Dont those stats confirm that death is skewed towards older people?

People always die at their oldest point.

It's in the rules.

[don'tbesilly]

alfie2244 said:

kurt535 said:

alfie2244 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

don'tbesilly said:

kurt535 said:

Interesting stat today on radio: 1m leave voters have left the planet in the last 2 years and 1m younger generation are now eligible to vote

I can see why brexit voters always get angry and fundamentally scared at May calling a 2nd referendum.

Also, why do brexit voters always threaten violence if the vote is overturned???

The examples of such are where?

Ive heard it a few times on tv and radio now, including this morning; this one was sent to me by a Brit pal in norway watching events. there is another more recent one in the last few days but Im short of time to hunt his email link out at the moment.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1031831/Brexit-n...

Common occurrence Kurt, ask for a citation none forthcoming, see "Big Pharma company in Surrey".

Good post.

You couple of doddery mugs! He sent me two links.....one was added.

Kurt didn't have time at 13.50 to find the email link from his Brit pal in Norway so he could post it up, but found the time 50 odd mins later to come back and throw the insults around.

[amusingduck]

bhstewie said:

p1stonhead said:

I think one thing is clear - everyone hates referendums now.

Quite.

I find it comically tragic that this thing has consumed British politics to the extent where our home grown issues simply aren't being sorted out.

Honestly, if you lined people up prior to the referendum and asked them "What's the single biggest issue fking your life up today?" I doubt you'd get many saying "The EU".

Yet somehow it's become the centre of our political universe to the detriment of so many other issues.

Aren't you in favour of a second referendum?

Do you not think that the wrangling for a second referendum is playing a massive role in keeping it at the centre of our political universe?

[Mario149]

bhstewie said:

p1stonhead said:

I think one thing is clear - everyone hates referendums now.

Quite.

I find it comically tragic that this thing has consumed British politics to the extent where our home grown issues simply aren't being sorted out.

Honestly, if you lined people up prior to the referendum and asked them "What's the single biggest issue fking your life up today?" I doubt you'd get many saying "The EU".

Yet somehow it's become the centre of our political universe to the detriment of so many other issues.

This^^ a lot. The referendum was an answer to a question that didn't need asking, unless of course you happened to be the parliamentary Tory party. The population as a whole didn't care enough to want asking about it. It's been said time and time again: the EU barely made the top 5 most important issues in 2015 and sometimes didn't. Which makes it all the more bizarre to me personally that so many people can claim to want to leave despite an economic hit.

And as a general point, the claim that WTO is fine and dandy for our trade with Europe while claiming a big bonus of leaving is you can try and strike trade deals with other economies we are currently WTO with is cognitive dissonance at its best. To quote Ivan Rogers:

"If WTO terms or existing EU preferential deals are not good enough for the UK in major third country markets, they can’t be good enough for trade with our largest market."

[saaby93]

Thank goodness PH isnt in government

[ellroy]

Anyone have a clue what JC's thinking with the personal no confidence vote rather than one aimed at HMG?

DUP have said they'll support, Tory could appoint new leader if it got through. Seems muddled thinking, to me, and several others such as Owen Smith.

[amusingduck]

Mario149 said:

This^^ a lot. The referendum was an answer to a question that didn't need asking, unless of course you happened to be the parliamentary Tory party. The population as a whole didn't care enough to want asking about it. It's been said time and time again: the EU barely made the top 5 most important issues in 2015 and sometimes didn't. Which makes it all the more bizarre to me personally that so many people can claim to want to leave despite an economic hit.

I can't understand this viewpoint.

It was the largest turnout since 1992, and the result was for change. How do you get from that to "the question didn't need asking"?. Ditto "so many people can claim to want to leave"?

It's precisely that concept of "the question doesn't need asking" that led to Brexit. If the questions had been asked early, and as often as needed, I am convinced we wouldn't be leaving.

[JagLover]

Mario149 said:

To quote Ivan Rogers:

"If WTO terms or existing EU preferential deals are not good enough for the UK in major third country markets, they can’t be good enough for trade with our largest market."

The two aren't actually comparable.

The price of a FTA with the EU, as we have seen, will be massive.

If you negotiate a trade deal with the USA, Japan, South Korea etc, they are concerned with facilitating trade and investment. They aren't going to start demanding financial contributions, access to our fishing grounds, or free movement for their citizens.

It is also the case that FTA with the rest of the world become more important as the EU declines as a share of our trade.