How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

[Bill]

gooner1 said:

Good old TM, no chance of a 2nd Referendum. Sorry Remoaners, but you KNEW this
would be the outcome.

So No Deal it is. .

And now she's right all of a sudden?

[wst]

braddo said:

However, deferral requires consent of the 27 EU countries, doesn't it?

Surely if that was the case, we could just unilaterally revoke it (as the ECJ ruled the other day) and then, when we've considered getting a competent Government, just trigger A50 again if the public still want it?

[toppstuff]

gooner1 said:

Good old TM, no chance of a 2nd Referendum. Sorry Remoaners, but you KNEW this
would be the outcome.

So No Deal it is. .

Dream on. Never going to happen for obvious reasons. Have you been on holiday ?

[gooner1]

Bill said:

gooner1 said:

Good old TM, no chance of a 2nd Referendum. Sorry Remoaners, but you KNEW this
would be the outcome.

So No Deal it is. .

And now she's right all of a sudden?

Do you never use the right tool for the job in hand, or even improvise?

[Laplace]

wst said:

urely if that was the case, we could just unilaterally revoke it (as the ECJ ruled the other day) and then, when we've considered getting a competent Government, just trigger A50 again if the public still want it?

I'm pretty sure I read that if we revoke it then that's it, we can't trigger A50 again, we're in for good.

[ExVantagemech..]

toppstuff said:

gooner1 said:

Good old TM, no chance of a 2nd Referendum. Sorry Remoaners, but you KNEW this
would be the outcome.

So No Deal it is. .

Dream on. Never going to happen for obvious reasons. Have you been on holiday ?

So much for no deal off the table....

https://twitter.com/StandUp4Brexit/status/10700975...

[Jonesy23]

toppstuff said:

Have you been on holiday ?

Guess you must be right now; stats for this thread show you've made 1 in every 8 posts. Hundreds in a week.

[frisbee]

wormus said:

Yet she’s still PM and can carry on without challenge for another 12m, by which time we will be out of the EU. By tomorrow everyone will have forgotten and it will be back to business as usual.

Reluctantly everyone will accept the half arsed deal is the only one available and it will go through, albeit with a few reassurances on the backstop.

Talks of second referendums and cancelling Brexit will be forgotten by all but a few tearful, angry remainers.

Anyone who thinks May's deal is leaving the EU is a moron. So take a bow!

[davepoth]

wst said:

braddo said:

However, deferral requires consent of the 27 EU countries, doesn't it?

Surely if that was the case, we could just unilaterally revoke it (as the ECJ ruled the other day) and then, when we've considered getting a competent Government, just trigger A50 again if the public still want it?

Not quite.

the ruling said:

(...)the revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw must, first, be submitted in writing to the European Council and, secondly, be unequivocal and unconditional, that is to say that the purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the withdrawal procedure to an end.

http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf;jsessionid=30070EAD3C16AB345376A71509ACC49D?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1

The unequivocal and unconditional part is important. If our reason for revoking is to regroup, hold a referendum, work out an actual plan and then send the letter back in a few years later, the revocation would not be accepted.

[Elysium]

pgh said:

toppstuff said:

pgh said:

braddo said:

Parliament will prevent a no deal,

How? What mechanism can be used?

There is a large enough parliamentary majority to vote to defer art 50 and to get another vote. They would vote for either of these before allowing a default to no deal.

Who would put that option before the house?

If parliament votes against the May deal, the Govt is required to respond within 21 days with a statement setting out how it intends to proceed.

This statement will be a 'motion' which will be debated by parliament who can put forward amendments.

This would create an opportunity for someone to propose an extension of article 50 or a second referendum, which could then be approved by a vote.

That vote would not be binding on the Govt, but it's hard to imagine that they would allow us to tick down to a no-deal exit if a significant majority of MP's have voted to do something else:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/w...

See also the Plan B amendment here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meaningful_vote#Re-t...

[The Dangerous Elk]

Laplace said:

wst said:

urely if that was the case, we could just unilaterally revoke it (as the ECJ ruled the other day) and then, when we've considered getting a competent Government, just trigger A50 again if the public still want it?

I'm pretty sure I read that if we revoke it then that's it, we can't trigger A50 again, we're in for good.

and then the Eu tentacles will fully close and assimilation will start in earnest.

[Variomatic]

The Dangerous Elk said:

and then the Eu tentacles will fully close and assimilation will start in earnest.

And, if that's true, it will be at the feet of the idiots who kicked off the whole abortive process in the first place. Which would be an amusing irony.

[wst]

frisbee said:

Anyone who thinks May's deal is leaving the EU is a moron. So take a bow!

It objectively is though. "European Union" is a very well defined legal entity, and May's deal removes us from that legal entity. You can put your fingers in your ears and go "la la la", but this is what you voted for, own it.

Laplace said:

wst said:

urely if that was the case, we could just unilaterally revoke it (as the ECJ ruled the other day) and then, when we've considered getting a competent Government, just trigger A50 again if the public still want it?

I'm pretty sure I read that if we revoke it then that's it, we can't trigger A50 again, we're in for good.

That would put an interesting spanner in the works.

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

pgh said:

toppstuff said:

pgh said:

braddo said:

Parliament will prevent a no deal,

How? What mechanism can be used?

There is a large enough parliamentary majority to vote to defer art 50 and to get another vote. They would vote for either of these before allowing a default to no deal.

Who would put that option before the house?

If parliament votes against the May deal, the Govt is required to respond within 21 days with a statement setting out how it intends to proceed.

This statement will be a 'motion' which will be debated by parliament who can put forward amendments.

This would create an opportunity for someone to propose an extension of article 50 or a second referendum, which could then be approved by a vote.

That vote would not be binding on the Govt, but it's hard to imagine that they would allow us to tick down to a no-deal exit if a significant majority of MP's have voted to do something else:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/w...

See also the Plan B amendment here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meaningful_vote#Re-t...

Bit in bold not true I am afraid

[The Dangerous Elk]

Variomatic said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

and then the Eu tentacles will fully close and assimilation will start in earnest.

And, if that's true, it will be at the feet of the idiots who kicked off the whole abortive process in the first place. Which would be an amusing irony.

Not at all, assimilation had started day one of membership. The time scale will just shorten.

You are the project, the project is you, the project is truth.

[frisbee]

Variomatic said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

and then the Eu tentacles will fully close and assimilation will start in earnest.

And, if that's true, it will be at the feet of the idiots who kicked off the whole abortive process in the first place. Which would be an amusing irony.

So basically the most likely options at this point are:

1. May's deal which is a slave state under EU control
2. Cancel A50 and accept tighter integration with the EU

Oh well!

[Variomatic]

frisbee said:

So basically the most likely options at this point are:

1. May's deal which is a slave state under EU control
2. Cancel A50 and accept tighter integration with the EU

Oh well!

Out of fairness, you should include

3. Crash out with no deal then discover that no-one outside the ranks of hard Brexiteers give a st about our Glorious Empire Past and the rest of the world will trade with us but only on terms that they dictate because we need it far more than they do.


eta: Of course, the "tighter integration" bit is a scare tactic because the decision by the ECJ says that membership would continue as before (and the rest of the EU couldn't change that). Which means we'd still retain all those special terms and vetoes that we enjoyed unless / until we agreed to give them up voluntarily.

Edited by Variomatic on Wednesday 12th December 22:40

[The Dangerous Elk]

Variomatic said:

frisbee said:

So basically the most likely options at this point are:

1. May's deal which is a slave state under EU control
2. Cancel A50 and accept tighter integration with the EU

Oh well!

Out of fairness, you should include

3. Crash out with no deal then discover that no-one outside the ranks of hard Brexiteers give a st about our Glorious Empire Past and the rest of the world will trade with us but only on terms that they dictate because we need it far more than they do.

DIngDong.....Eu safe Space required Isle 4 !

[gooner1]

toppstuff said:

gooner1 said:

Good old TM, no chance of a 2nd Referendum. Sorry Remoaners, but you KNEW this
would be the outcome.

So No Deal it is. .

Dream on. Never going to happen for obvious reasons. Have you been on holiday ?

The "obvious reasons" you omitted to post.

[Variomatic]

The Dangerous Elk said:

DIngDong.....Eu safe Space required Isle 4 !

Not at all. In or out, I'll be fine whatever happens,

But I'll take enormous pleasure in watching the idiots' worlds slowly crumble as the painful truth dawns on them.