How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
PurpleMoonlight said:
powerstroke said:
Great article so what we Leavers have said all along a sensible trade deal would be the best option a WTO deal would hurt
EU members ,
Mind for the EU its never been about anything but maintaining power over its members ..
A no deal would be best for Britain... and as the article says very bad for the ROI ...
A sensible trade deal would have been, but thanks to the UK (via May) rubbishing that and wanting more we are where we are now.EU members ,
Mind for the EU its never been about anything but maintaining power over its members ..
A no deal would be best for Britain... and as the article says very bad for the ROI ...
k.... Coolbanana said:
powerstroke said:
Great article so what we Leavers have said all along a sensible trade deal would be the best option a WTO deal would hurt
EU members ,
Errr, duh! Both sides have been stating WTO would hurt each of them from day one! It isn't something 'you Leavers' made up. EU members ,
A sensible deal has been the goal for the last 2 years and TM got one.
You will not get better. The 27 European States have collectively offered their best deal. It is that or WTO. They are prepared to accept, albeit reluctantly, WTO.
They have factored in the cost of WTO into their collective decision. They have done extensive research. As they always do.
The UK, on the otherhand, has used WTO as a bluff. It will not call it. It does not want it. Why? Because it does not believe it is in its best interests and that the 27 can absorb the impact better than it can.
The EU have provided a decent Brexit deal in TM's Deal. Take it, or leave it. Naturally, WTO being dead now for the UK barring an unlikely 2nd Ref win, it will either take it or seek closer ties if it fails.
The endgame is close. Enjoy.
Coolbanana said:
Is it so hard for you to understand? Really?
Personally, I still don't think the long term prospects should be scary, I would be very surprised if the UK couldn't reach a similar level to what it enjoyed within the EU albeit I don't believe it will do better, nor will any of the perceived EU 'problems' go away, hence my preference for Remain and enjoy the benefits.
But...it is a gamble. Not everyone has such confidence and I, nor anyone else with confidence, can make any guarantees that the UK won't sttuggle and see a marked decrease in GDP and a rung down the ladder in terms of general standard of living.
Being optimistic and shouting 'tally ho, chaps' as you go over the wall is all very well but for many, the unknowns that cannot be proven are simply not worth the risk when it has been a cushy gig as part of the EU; and it has, 5th largest economy etc. etc.
Leaving on WTO is a risk. Regardless of what anyone says. Indeed, no-one can categorically state that all will be the same, slightly worse or better without being a liar.
Anyway, TM's Deal is the Leavers best option for the most Brexit they will get. Anything other than TM's Deal will be closer ties to the EU. WTO is dead.
Leavers need to cross their fingers she gets her concessions. Squeaky bum time for ya'll today!
Concessions? May is safe for a year. Now she can throw in some more concessions to the EU to sweeten the deal for them!Personally, I still don't think the long term prospects should be scary, I would be very surprised if the UK couldn't reach a similar level to what it enjoyed within the EU albeit I don't believe it will do better, nor will any of the perceived EU 'problems' go away, hence my preference for Remain and enjoy the benefits.
But...it is a gamble. Not everyone has such confidence and I, nor anyone else with confidence, can make any guarantees that the UK won't sttuggle and see a marked decrease in GDP and a rung down the ladder in terms of general standard of living.
Being optimistic and shouting 'tally ho, chaps' as you go over the wall is all very well but for many, the unknowns that cannot be proven are simply not worth the risk when it has been a cushy gig as part of the EU; and it has, 5th largest economy etc. etc.
Leaving on WTO is a risk. Regardless of what anyone says. Indeed, no-one can categorically state that all will be the same, slightly worse or better without being a liar.
Anyway, TM's Deal is the Leavers best option for the most Brexit they will get. Anything other than TM's Deal will be closer ties to the EU. WTO is dead.
Leavers need to cross their fingers she gets her concessions. Squeaky bum time for ya'll today!
Project Christmas is on.
Vanden Saab said:
Spot on, The only solution now is to leave on WTO terms and then go to the EU and get a sensible FTA. This is what Leavers have been saying all along, anything else will be a clusterfk....
As a leaver saying that we should trade under WTO, how will the Irish border problem resolve itself if we are trading under WTO?k.... That is a genuine question and not trolling.
Ghibli said:
As a leaver saying that we should trade under WTO, how will the Irish border problem resolve itself if we are trading under WTO?
That is a genuine question and not trolling.
What problem is that then?That is a genuine question and not trolling.
The EU have categorically stated there will be no hard border whatever happens.
As has Varadkar. Can't see the UK building one, and that includes NI.
Who's left to implement it?
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
As a leaver saying that we should trade under WTO, how will the Irish border problem resolve itself if we are trading under WTO?
That is a genuine question and not trolling.
What problem is that then?That is a genuine question and not trolling.
The EU have categorically stated there will be no hard border whatever happens.
As has Varadkar. Can't see the UK building one, and that includes NI.
Who's left to implement it?
Ghibli said:
Vanden Saab said:
Spot on, The only solution now is to leave on WTO terms and then go to the EU and get a sensible FTA. This is what Leavers have been saying all along, anything else will be a clusterfk....
As a leaver saying that we should trade under WTO, how will the Irish border problem resolve itself if we are trading under WTO?k.... That is a genuine question and not trolling.
Ghibli said:
As a leaver saying that we should trade under WTO, how will the Irish border problem resolve itself if we are trading under WTO?
That is a genuine question and not trolling.
There is no Irish problem, both the UK and the EU have said a technological solution for goods is acceptable and as long as we agree to a timetable to implement it the WTO are happy. There is a long history of this happening all over the world. Once the FTA is agreed it becomes a non-issue anyway... From a people perspective the UK and Ireland have always worked together to prevent those they do not want in their countries from getting in and this will not change... That is a genuine question and not trolling.
Vanden Saab said:
There is no Irish problem, both the UK and the EU have said a technological solution for goods is acceptable and as long as we agree to a timetable to implement it the WTO are happy. There is a long history of this happening all over the world. Once the FTA is agreed it becomes a non-issue anyway... From a people perspective the UK and Ireland have always worked together to prevent those they do not want in their countries from getting in and this will not change...
Just out of curiosity, do you know what is going on in the negotiations and where do you get your information from?That's another genuine question and not trolling.
Vanden Saab said:
Spot on, The only solution now is to leave on WTO terms and then go to the EU and get a sensible FTA. This is what Leavers have been saying all along, anything else will be a clusterfk....
Leavers haven't been saying that all along.k.... The EU offered a Canady style FTA from day one. It was the UK that has f
ked everything up by wanting something unique, not the EU.Vanden Saab said:
There is no Irish problem, both the UK and the EU have said a technological solution for goods is acceptable and as long as we agree to a timetable to implement it the WTO are happy. There is a long history of this happening all over the world. Once the FTA is agreed it becomes a non-issue anyway... From a people perspective the UK and Ireland have always worked together to prevent those they do not want in their countries from getting in and this will not change...
As you have the key to solving brexit with such sage knowledge and wisdom, why are you here on a car forum and not earning the big bucks as an international trade lawyer advising the gubbernment ?Your country needs you.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Leavers haven't been saying that all along.
The EU offered a Canady style FTA from day one. It was the UK that has fked everything up by wanting something unique, not the EU.
Leavers now want to trade under WTO rules instead of arranging our own deals.The EU offered a Canady style FTA from day one. It was the UK that has f
ked everything up by wanting something unique, not the EU.Apparently its what they voted for.
davepoth said:
Elysium said:
That just means that the revocation must be 'clear' and 'without conditions'. Neither of those things make it permanent.
Absolutely. There's nothing in the ruling that stops us from enacting and revoking Article 50 like a rubbish verse of the Hokey Cokey, other than that we need to mean it at the point of revocation.The issue is of course that if we revoked and then re-enacted it 18 months later with the aim of doing a better deal, the rest of the EU is unlikely to be particularly happy with us.
toppstuff said:
As you have the key to solving brexit with such sage knowledge and wisdom, why are you here on a car forum and not earning the big bucks as an international trade lawyer advising the gubbernment ?
Your country needs you.
Surely there is only room for one globetrotting, all knowing, been there, done everything, Your country needs you.
Livonian speaking, international lawyer, so maybe Vanden doesn't want to wilt in your
all encompassing shadow.
Or maybe his views are just as valid as yours.
Elysium said:
Vanden Saab said:
Elysium said:
pgh said:
toppstuff said:
pgh said:
braddo said:
Parliament will prevent a no deal,
How? What mechanism can be used?This statement will be a 'motion' which will be debated by parliament who can put forward amendments.
This would create an opportunity for someone to propose an extension of article 50 or a second referendum, which could then be approved by a vote.
That vote would not be binding on the Govt, but it's hard to imagine that they would allow us to tick down to a no-deal exit if a significant majority of MP's have voted to do something else:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/w...
See also the Plan B amendment here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meaningful_vote#Re-t...
gooner1 said:
toppstuff said:
As you have the key to solving brexit with such sage knowledge and wisdom, why are you here on a car forum and not earning the big bucks as an international trade lawyer advising the gubbernment ?
Your country needs you.
Surely there is only room for one globetrotting, all knowing, been there, done everything, Your country needs you.
Livonian speaking, international lawyer, so maybe Vanden doesn't want to wilt in your
all encompassing shadow.
Or maybe his views are just as valid as yours.
Given that the geo- politics in Europe right now seem to hinge on this issue and both sides seem to think it IS a big problem, it seems reasonable to test such claims. Doesn’t it?
Ghibli said:
Leavers now want to trade under WTO rules instead of arranging our own deals.
Apparently its what they voted for.
Some may well have done. Apparently its what they voted for.
Whatever they voted for, it wasn't for a 2nd referendum, so it's nice to see
dear Theresa has booted that firmly out of the equation.
Do you require a safe space while you digest that information, can't guarantee
faux suede seating therein I'm afraid.
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