How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
gooner1 said:
Ghibli said:
Leavers now want to trade under WTO rules instead of arranging our own deals.
Apparently its what they voted for.
Some may well have done. Apparently its what they voted for.
Whatever they voted for, it wasn't for a 2nd referendum, so it's nice to see
dear Theresa has booted that firmly out of the equation.
Do you require a safe space while you digest that information, can't guarantee
faux suede seating therein I'm afraid.
Are you wanting to be like your bum chum?
Trading under WTO rules doesn't give us any power in the negotiations. The WTO will not resolve the border problem.
gooner1 said:
Some may well have done.
Whatever they voted for, it wasn't for a 2nd referendum, so it's nice to see
dear Theresa has booted that firmly out of the equation.
Do you require a safe space while you digest that information, can't guarantee
faux suede seating therein I'm afraid.
1. It may not be Theresa's call in the end. Whatever they voted for, it wasn't for a 2nd referendum, so it's nice to see
dear Theresa has booted that firmly out of the equation.
Do you require a safe space while you digest that information, can't guarantee
faux suede seating therein I'm afraid.
2. You still believe what Theresa says as Gospel and that she doesn't change her mind at the last minute?
Ghibli said:
Why are you talking about a 2nd referendum and faux suede seating? Why not start asking who I voted for in the GE.
Are you wanting to be like your bum chum?
Trading under WTO rules doesn't give us any power in the negotiations. The WTO will not resolve the border problem.
Oh dear, you appear awfully tetchy this fine winters day. Are you wanting to be like your bum chum?
Trading under WTO rules doesn't give us any power in the negotiations. The WTO will not resolve the border problem.
I couldn't give a big rats arse who you voted for in any GE past or future.
What's a bum chum, chum?
There is no border problem as will become apparent when we leave with no deal and
no hard border is constructed.
p1stonhead said:
So we just have a totally open border to the EU then?
Why not? What are we actually worried about?Ireland isn't a land of cheap fags and booze set to poach our tax base, nor is it ain impoverished failed state brimming with would be illegal migrants. They have the right to move freely anyway according to treaties which pre-date the EU, which prevented Ireland and the UK from joining Schengen.
While it may open up a back door route for Romanian cigarettes or European migrants from elsewhere most enforcement can be done in country (as it is anyway, when we can be bothered). Anyway if I was a would be booze smuggling illegal immigrant with my heart set on living in England I would think I'd more likely enter on a tourist visa at Calais or some convenient airport rather than clowning around on ferries for a week to get to Stranraer.
The whole thing smacks of May and her advisers thinking people want border controls without thinking where or why they want border controls and without bothering to ask. On this faulty premise they have tied themselves in knots over a problem that doesn't exist.
Coolbanana said:
1. It may not be Theresa's call in the end.
2. You still believe what Theresa says as Gospel and that she doesn't change her mind at the last minute?
1. Correct , it may not be, but if it is my point still stand2. You still believe what Theresa says as Gospel and that she doesn't change her mind at the last minute?
2. I have no more faith in what Theresa says than in anything any MP says, or the
content of any of your posts.
No offence.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Vanden Saab said:
Spot on, The only solution now is to leave on WTO terms and then go to the EU and get a sensible FTA. This is what Leavers have been saying all along, anything else will be a clusterf
k....
Leavers haven't been saying that all along.k.... The EU offered a Canady style FTA from day one. It was the UK CIVIL SERVICE that has f
ked everything up by wanting something unique, not the EU.JuanCarlosFandango said:
p1stonhead said:
So we just have a totally open border to the EU then?
Why not? What are we actually worried about?Ireland isn't a land of cheap fags and booze set to poach our tax base, nor is it ain impoverished failed state brimming with would be illegal migrants. They have the right to move freely anyway according to treaties which pre-date the EU, which prevented Ireland and the UK from joining Schengen.
While it may open up a back door route for Romanian cigarettes or European migrants from elsewhere most enforcement can be done in country (as it is anyway, when we can be bothered). Anyway if I was a would be booze smuggling illegal immigrant with my heart set on living in England I would think I'd more likely enter on a tourist visa at Calais or some convenient airport rather than clowning around on ferries for a week to get to Stranraer.
The whole thing smacks of May and her advisers thinking people want border controls without thinking where or why they want border controls and without bothering to ask. On this faulty premise they have tied themselves in knots over a problem that doesn't exist.
Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
Vanden Saab said:
There is no Irish problem, both the UK and the EU have said a technological solution for goods is acceptable and as long as we agree to a timetable to implement it the WTO are happy. There is a long history of this happening all over the world. Once the FTA is agreed it becomes a non-issue anyway... From a people perspective the UK and Ireland have always worked together to prevent those they do not want in their countries from getting in and this will not change...
I'm not sure you are entirely correct but I'm happy to be proved wrong.As explained to me recently, in the event of a No Deal Brexit the Irish border problem isn't for the WTO to raise objections. It would be one of the WTO member states to object and then the WTO would adjudicate on the negations. So, if Spain wanted to object because on their claims over Gibraltar, they could raise the NorIron border set up as a legitimate problem with the WTO. Also think Argentina with their claims over the Falkland Islands. Whether any 3rd country would bring a complaint I'm have no idea.
p1stonhead said:
Only thing to question is where the checks will take place of course. Because currently you don’t always need ID to cross on say a ferry (been many times and never asked) and the DUP won’t accept a border down the sea.
Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
Is it a case of you don't need ID, or that you wasn't asked to present it?Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
And where was the ferry coming from?
gooner1 said:
Coolbanana said:
1. It may not be Theresa's call in the end.
2. You still believe what Theresa says as Gospel and that she doesn't change her mind at the last minute?
1. Correct , it may not be, but if it is my point still stand2. You still believe what Theresa says as Gospel and that she doesn't change her mind at the last minute?
2. I have no more faith in what Theresa says than in anything any MP says, or the
content of any of your posts.
No offence.
We are all here expressing opinions and calling it as we see it - none of us can state we know the eventual outcome for an absolute fact, we can only interpret what we see and hear and take a stance that we believe to be most likely. Even that is a moving feast. TM is all about her Deal. She is 100% committed to it and does not want any distraction from it. She will not entertain any option other than her Deal. She will, therefore, shut down talk of any other option. It is her Legacy. Her moment of fame - or infamy, depending upon your view, and secures her place in History.
However, if her Deal fails and she has to very reluctantly accept defeat on that score, she will have to betray one of her red lines. She will have no choice. Unless she is willing to stand down - and we know she is a tenacious woman who will not do so given she sees herself as the solution provider to Brexit, come what may.
In betraying a red line, she will either soften her Brexit stance and accept FOM - so Norway+ Customs - or perhaps accept a Canada-type Deal or, indeed, concede to a 2nd Referendum which is gaining popularity all the time. All of those depend upon what she believes will win a majority vote in Parliament, hence all are on the table should it come to the defeat of her preferred Brexit. What she will not believe is on the table, is a WTO option.
gooner1 said:
p1stonhead said:
Only thing to question is where the checks will take place of course. Because currently you don’t always need ID to cross on say a ferry (been many times and never asked) and the DUP won’t accept a border down the sea.
Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
Is it a case of you don't need ID, or that you wasn't asked to present it?Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
And where was the ferry coming from?
Been about 5 years since last trip over on the ferry though but I doubt it’s changed. Can fly with a drivers licence too I’ve done it when I forgot my passport but that is still a form of ID at least.
Main point applies to say Belfast Liverpool as there are no checks. It’s simply crossing a bit of water in the same country so why would there be. And the DUP have said they won’t accept there being any change to this. It would be like needing a passport crossing the Thames in London.
Edited by p1stonhead on Thursday 13th December 08:50
Coolbanana said:
In betraying a red line, she will either soften her Brexit stance and accept FOM - so Norway+ Customs - or perhaps accept a Canada-type Deal or, indeed, concede to a 2nd Referendum which is gaining popularity all the time. All of those depend upon what she believes will win a majority vote in Parliament, hence all are on the table should it come to the defeat of her preferred Brexit. What she will not believe is on the table, is a WTO option.
The trouble is the first of those are less of a Brexit, the last with no transition messes up trade and border from day one.Thinking about it overnight, she's really going to the limit pulling it out of the bag
At the moment it looks like the EU arent going to go much further - not enough for the DUP at least
which means the deal is dead
Parliament isnt going to go for no deal as it's biased to Remain
so it looks like it's heading to eventually repealing artice 50 and back to square one
Whether the voters will be pleased with that is another issue
p1stonhead said:
Only thing to question is where the checks will take place of course. Because currently you don’t always need ID to cross on say a ferry (been many times and never asked) and the DUP won’t accept a border down the sea.
Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
There's really no need. The checks can take place when you get a job, rent a house, claim benefits, register with a GP etc. We do this anyway.Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
There's no reason to think significant numbers of Poles, Bulgarians or anyone else will engage in mass law breaking or that they would use such a circuitous route to do it when any sensible British government (I know that seems fanciful right now) would give a visa waiver/visa on arrival and fairly flexible work and residency visas to the citizens of those countries.
gooner1 said:
toppstuff said:
As you have the key to solving brexit with such sage knowledge and wisdom, why are you here on a car forum and not earning the big bucks as an international trade lawyer advising the gubbernment ?
Your country needs you.
Surely there is only room for one globetrotting, all knowing, been there, done everything, Your country needs you.
Livonian speaking, international lawyer, so maybe Vanden doesn't want to wilt in your
all encompassing shadow.
Or maybe his views are just as valid as yours.
alfie2244 said:
gooner1 said:
toppstuff said:
As you have the key to solving brexit with such sage knowledge and wisdom, why are you here on a car forum and not earning the big bucks as an international trade lawyer advising the gubbernment ?
Your country needs you.
Surely there is only room for one globetrotting, all knowing, been there, done everything, Your country needs you.
Livonian speaking, international lawyer, so maybe Vanden doesn't want to wilt in your
all encompassing shadow.
Or maybe his views are just as valid as yours.
gooner1 said:
p1stonhead said:
Only thing to question is where the checks will take place of course. Because currently you don’t always need ID to cross on say a ferry (been many times and never asked) and the DUP won’t accept a border down the sea.
Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
Is it a case of you don't need ID, or that you wasn't asked to present it?Therefore anyone from the EU can come into the UK unchecked unless at least a few things change.
And where was the ferry coming from?
Ghibli said:
Dr Jekyll said:
Trading under WTO allows us to arrange our own deals, it's the same thing.
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