How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
saaby93 said:
Summary here - is it enough to win over cross party MPs?
That seems fair enough to me.EU said:
Text of EU summit conclusions on Brexit
UK withdrawal deal 'not open for renegotiation'
1. The European Council reconfirms its conclusions of 25 November 2018, in which it endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement and approved the Political Declaration. The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as soon as possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It is the Union’s firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by 31 December 2020 alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered.
4. The European Council also underlines that, if the backstop were nevertheless to be triggered, it would apply temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement that ensures that a hard border is avoided. In such a case, the Union would use its best endeavours to negotiate and conclude expeditiously a subsequent agreement that would replace the backstop, and would expect the same of the United Kingdom, so that the backstop would only be in place for as long as strictly necessary.
5. The European Council calls for work on preparedness at all levels for the consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal to be intensified, taking into account all possible outcomes.
UK withdrawal deal 'not open for renegotiation'
1. The European Council reconfirms its conclusions of 25 November 2018, in which it endorsed the Withdrawal Agreement and approved the Political Declaration. The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.
2. The European Council reiterates that it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership with the United Kingdom in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately after signature of the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure that negotiations can start as soon as possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
3. The European Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market. It is the Union’s firm determination to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by 31 December 2020 alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not need to be triggered.
4. The European Council also underlines that, if the backstop were nevertheless to be triggered, it would apply temporarily, unless and until it is superseded by a subsequent agreement that ensures that a hard border is avoided. In such a case, the Union would use its best endeavours to negotiate and conclude expeditiously a subsequent agreement that would replace the backstop, and would expect the same of the United Kingdom, so that the backstop would only be in place for as long as strictly necessary.
5. The European Council calls for work on preparedness at all levels for the consequences of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal to be intensified, taking into account all possible outcomes.
It trust a bad word in the new brexit utopia?
braddo said:
JuanCarlosFandango said:
We elect MPs to represent our views and our interests.
Representative democracy means that MPs use their judgement to make decisions which they judge to be in the best interests of their constituents.Edmund Burke - "Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion."
JuanCarlosFandango said:
We elected them to hold a referendum on EU membership ....
Don't try to pretend you're referring to anything more than UKIP voters and a minority of Tory voters when you say that. In no way was Brexit anywhere near a national debate when Cameron called the referendum.Of course politicians need to use their judgement but to outright defy such a clear mandate would surely lead to huge resentment and I imagine electoral consequences. Whether Edmund Burke would approve or not.
Nickgnome said:
silentbrown said:
NI results were very localised. Of 18 constituencies, 7 voted leave.
Leave won resoundingly in one, but were absolutely hammered in eight. The remaining results were close.
3 of 10 DUP UK Parliamenary constituencies voted Remain, the rest Leave - so every NI Leave-voting constituency has a DUP MP.
Arlene Foster's not an MP, but her NIA constituency voted overwhelmingly to remain. Shame she's not listening to them!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-366...
Yes it is. Leave won resoundingly in one, but were absolutely hammered in eight. The remaining results were close.
3 of 10 DUP UK Parliamenary constituencies voted Remain, the rest Leave - so every NI Leave-voting constituency has a DUP MP.
Arlene Foster's not an MP, but her NIA constituency voted overwhelmingly to remain. Shame she's not listening to them!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-366...
However I believe MPs should vote for what they believe. We are a representative democracy.
The logical conclusion is that if their electorate do not like them they can be de-selected and the local party select another candidate.
Unfortunatyely the electorate now seem to believe they should dictate how and MP thinks which in the long term will be very ,very bad for our democracy.
What is even worse is the majority of the electorate are not even members of political party and then moan when their MP does not live up to their expectations.
Let’s be honest, if the Labour and Tory MPs who would like us to remain had stood for parties who agree with that policy, then they wouldn’t have won their seats at all.
To have stood for Conservative or Labour in 2017, won the job, and then to try to reverse Brexit is an act of deceit. This is by far the biggest issue of the day, not a minor point of disagreement over some trifle on Page 11 of the manifesto.
SpeckledJim said:
You’d be nuts to be persuaded by this, but not by the first version. It’s the same.
not quite,i believe the paragraph signaling the temporary nature of the back stop and good faith not to invoke it with the intention of it lasting in perpetuity has been removed 
anyone signing up to it now is a true lunatic.the timing of every single thing may and the tory party have done in relation to brexit has been terrible. in fact i am close to getting my tinfoil hat on given every single thing they have done appears to have weakened our position. the level of incompetence is literally beyond belief.
if absolutely nothing else changes in the near future there has to be a campaign for none of the above on the ballot paper. the last two years have shown that the career politicians (including those that had a twenty year career in the glad handing sector of financial services off the back of a second class degree in geography) we currently endure are incapable when it comes to the difficult stuff,incompetence and back stabbing to further their own careers when they should be focused on issues outside personal and party interest is about their level.
there still seems to be a few people hell bent on using the term "representative democracy" in relation to brexit.when mp's abrogate their responsibility by handing over the decision making to the public ,representative democracy no longer applies.
many of the same people have been struggling with the definition of leaving the eu.leaving the eu entails stopping payments beyond our current responsibilities to the organisation. no more ecj jurisdiction ,out of single market and customs union and no more free movement of labour. various politicians have stated all of the above so i am not making it up to suit a narrative. now the first and last point have various ways of meeting their definitions but the other three are unequivocal .
many of the same people have been struggling with the definition of leaving the eu.leaving the eu entails stopping payments beyond our current responsibilities to the organisation. no more ecj jurisdiction ,out of single market and customs union and no more free movement of labour. various politicians have stated all of the above so i am not making it up to suit a narrative. now the first and last point have various ways of meeting their definitions but the other three are unequivocal .
popeyewhite said:
Ghibli said:
popeyewhite said:
Nope - I thought 'leave' meant to go away from, exit, quit, pull out etc - as do most others. That's what the word means. May's deal doesn't do that.
How do you know what most others think?I'm still not sure how you know what most others think.
Fittster said:
Leicester Loyal said:
Derek Smith said:
If the elected MPs decided to pull A50 and so have the UK remain in the EU it would be them complying with their duty if they felt that was in the best interests of the UK. We live in a democracy and not a dictatorship. We vote in MPs to make our decisions for us. There is a majority of MPs who think it is best for the UK to remain.
You might not like it, and the tone of your posts hints that you don't, but it is what we've got.
No, we vote in MPs to represent us, not to decide what's best for us. You might not like it, and the tone of your posts hints that you don't, but it is what we've got.
"Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays instead of serving you if he sacrifices it to your opinion."
Our representatives overwhelmingly judged that the public should decide. Funny how often that gets forgotten about. Rather undermines the whole Burke quote, dontcha think
Well then. The EU are united and firm - all 27.
So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
wisbech said:
Interesting, sobering and a glimpse of reality that more people should be aware of, too late though!Coolbanana said:
Well then. The EU are united and firm - all 27.
So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
A few more heads exploded today.So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
When either a GE or people vote is announced it will be endex to brexit.
Edited by Roboraver on Friday 14th December 07:35
Roboraver said:
A few more heads exploded today.
When either a GE or people vote is announced it will be endex to brexit.
May has said there will be no second referendum, she has also said that if her deal isn't accepted there will be no Brexit.When either a GE or people vote is announced it will be endex to brexit.
Edited by Roboraver on Friday 14th December 07:35
We are just waiting for Brexit supporters to start demanding a second referendum so that they can achieve the no deal Brexit that they desire.
Coolbanana said:
Well then. The EU are united and firm - all 27.
So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
I certainly wouldn't be voting in it. Might get out of bed to protest. So, May may have to resort to betraying a red line or two...another U-turn.
If it leads to the much-debated 2nd Referendum, many Leavers on here have oft-declared it would, by their own personal incorrect view of Democracy, be a travesty of their original vote and so why should they bother voting again etc etc.
So...ya'll gonna stay in bed on Brexit Ref. 2 Day then? May as well, if you don't think it is democratic. Go on, be rebels.
If your "extra" democracy wins a Remain vote with anything less than the 17.4 million who voted leave in 2016 it will be all the more obvious a sham. I suspect it would manage even less than Remain got in 2016.
sherbertdip said:
wisbech said:
Interesting, sobering and a glimpse of reality that more people should be aware of, too late though!SpeckledJim said:
Nickgnome said:
silentbrown said:
NI results were very localised. Of 18 constituencies, 7 voted leave.
Leave won resoundingly in one, but were absolutely hammered in eight. The remaining results were close.
3 of 10 DUP UK Parliamenary constituencies voted Remain, the rest Leave - so every NI Leave-voting constituency has a DUP MP.
Arlene Foster's not an MP, but her NIA constituency voted overwhelmingly to remain. Shame she's not listening to them!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-366...
Yes it is. Leave won resoundingly in one, but were absolutely hammered in eight. The remaining results were close.
3 of 10 DUP UK Parliamenary constituencies voted Remain, the rest Leave - so every NI Leave-voting constituency has a DUP MP.
Arlene Foster's not an MP, but her NIA constituency voted overwhelmingly to remain. Shame she's not listening to them!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-366...
However I believe MPs should vote for what they believe. We are a representative democracy.
The logical conclusion is that if their electorate do not like them they can be de-selected and the local party select another candidate.
Unfortunatyely the electorate now seem to believe they should dictate how and MP thinks which in the long term will be very ,very bad for our democracy.
What is even worse is the majority of the electorate are not even members of political party and then moan when their MP does not live up to their expectations.
Let’s be honest, if the Labour and Tory MPs who would like us to remain had stood for parties who agree with that policy, then they wouldn’t have won their seats at all.
To have stood for Conservative or Labour in 2017, won the job, and then to try to reverse Brexit is an act of deceit. This is by far the biggest issue of the day, not a minor point of disagreement over some trifle on Page 11 of the manifesto.
I would argue that is actually a healthy position as without some points of differerence parties would quickly descend into 'group think' and, in reality, I think you would struggle to find many MPs that wholeheartedly support every aspect of their parties manifesto's
Plus - events change and manifestos change in response. Every Govt in history has dropped manifesto commitments when they assuming power because some new information or external change requires it.
The future is uncertain and MP's / Policy need to adapt to that. Plus, as it stands, I don't see any concerted attempt to prevent Brexit.
Ghibli said:
Roboraver said:
A few more heads exploded today.
When either a GE or people vote is announced it will be endex to brexit.
May has said there will be no second referendum, she has also said that if her deal isn't accepted there will be no Brexit.When either a GE or people vote is announced it will be endex to brexit.
Edited by Roboraver on Friday 14th December 07:35
We are just waiting for Brexit supporters to start demanding a second referendum so that they can achieve the no deal Brexit that they desire.
Why would Brexit supporters demand a 2nd referendum?
PurpleMoonlight said:
That seems fair enough to me.
It trust a bad word in the new brexit utopia?
The legal text is all you can "trust". If they can be "trusted" write something meaningful in the legal text. There can be no downside if the intent is true. It trust a bad word in the new brexit utopia?
If not, just like "good will" it ultimately means nothing when push comes to shove.
And push will very much come to shove. Macron has already stated so on fishing. Spain already has on Gibraltar. And that's just 2/27.
Signing up to that deal, with those "trust" based declarations that add zip, will be a massive problem for the UK over the next decades. Worse, by some margin, than actually staying in the EU.
This is, of course, by design by the EU. They want us to stay. They do not want the cash cow to become more competitive (they have explicitly admitted as much) without them reaping a share of the rewards. That's fair enough, but it's not what the people of this country voted for in majority. (Those who could be arsed of course
). b
hstewie said:
hstewie said:sherbertdip said:
wisbech said:
Interesting, sobering and a glimpse of reality that more people should be aware of, too late though!My only disagreement is the opening premise that the decision is made and must be enacted come what may.
Rogers very clearly details the areas where both sides of the debate still have a fundamental lack of understanding of the situation, of the reasons why the EU are acting as they are and their unrealistic aspirations for a miracle solution.
I agree that it is time for a greater level of honesty about these issues and for that reason I am coming more and more to the conclusion that we need a second referendum. Parliament cannot see a way through this otherwise.
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