How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
ash73 said:
And what do you think of Corbyn's alternative proposal?
I believe Corbyn to favour Brexit as it will allow him to pursue his ruinous Nationalisation dream. But he doesn't actually have to say anything at the moment though and if he does, it risks exposing the divisions within his own party. I'm no Corbynista but I believe he is playing a blinder here by not getting involved. The tories are damaging themselves much better than Jeremy, Dianne or John could ever do. Interesting times.
SpeckledJim said:
PositronicRay said:
PurpleMoonlight said:
PositronicRay said:
How does voting for "SOMTHING else" help. Sounds a bit Father Ted to me.
Because WTO is the default of where we now, if they do nothing it will happen. They need to do something else to stop that.Don't you understand that?
It doesn't have to happen, but for it to not happen, parliament has to actively make SOMETHING else happen. There are a variety of somethings still available, but time is reducing their number.
To say there's no appetite in Parliament for No Deal might be true in one sense, but it's also true that parliament voted in a plan, just six months ago, to make No Deal happen, so it's a muddled situation
Inaction and shoulder shrug of "delivering the will of the people" won't do. The fanatics would make an effort, be interesting how many others would.
The Dangerous Elk said:
Coolbanana said:
Yes, Murph, please clarify 
I cannot see Britons en masse taking to the streets in riotous fashion over Brexit. Even those who decide to march peacefully will struggle to match the Remainer numbers.
Why? Simply because no Remainers will have any issue with it - so that's 48%. Abstainers won't, so that's the majority of the population and most Leavers won't, simply because most just won't be all that fussed enough to be activists when their lives are not going to be materially negatively affected enough to warrant it.
That leaves only a relatively small number of actual Brexit Activists - and even among those, many are just hot air and angry typists - and those can be managed no probs.
Not as big a deal as some anarchist Brexiters would like to believe.
There will be big riots, but they will come on the days ahead when future votes are made, the pen will do this work by both its use and it being discarded as pointless. MP's have managed to turn Politicians/Parliament into a Ratner's.I cannot see Britons en masse taking to the streets in riotous fashion over Brexit. Even those who decide to march peacefully will struggle to match the Remainer numbers.
Why? Simply because no Remainers will have any issue with it - so that's 48%. Abstainers won't, so that's the majority of the population and most Leavers won't, simply because most just won't be all that fussed enough to be activists when their lives are not going to be materially negatively affected enough to warrant it.
That leaves only a relatively small number of actual Brexit Activists - and even among those, many are just hot air and angry typists - and those can be managed no probs.
Not as big a deal as some anarchist Brexiters would like to believe.
When a Parliament can disregard the expressed and asked for wish of the British voters then remember (whatever side you are on) they will DO IT TO YOUR Vote one day.
Lots of interviews in Brussels and lots of people letting slip somewhat their thoughts on "Britain". The Green German MP was just so entrenched in the EU Dogma she was unable to even contemplate understanding the point that the EU cannot expect to dictate anything in the UK once we leave and the backstop was an open ended part of the agreement. We cannot negotiate when the EU have views that they cannot even consider discussing and yes I know we may be accused of similar but EU negotiations always need to be taken to the cliff edge to see what lies below before sanity prevails and this is were we now need to take them.
WelshChris said:
May be something awry with my thinking, but...
I keep reading that the EU definitely don't want the 'no deal' scenario, so why is it that May has to go cap in hand to Brussells begging for concessions and changes to the bad deal she already has on the table? - Why can't we simply turn the tables and tell the EU that we're leaving with no deal if they don't come to the party? - They surely will even if it's at the eleventh hour.
With all the machinations and to-ing and fro-ing that's taking place at the moment, this is the one point I'm not clear on. (Actually there are probably others but my head has gone completely where this is concerned - I think it's called 'brexit fatigue' )
I think because although the EU don't want no-deal, we want it even less.I keep reading that the EU definitely don't want the 'no deal' scenario, so why is it that May has to go cap in hand to Brussells begging for concessions and changes to the bad deal she already has on the table? - Why can't we simply turn the tables and tell the EU that we're leaving with no deal if they don't come to the party? - They surely will even if it's at the eleventh hour.
With all the machinations and to-ing and fro-ing that's taking place at the moment, this is the one point I'm not clear on. (Actually there are probably others but my head has gone completely where this is concerned - I think it's called 'brexit fatigue'
)WelshChris said:
p1stonhead said:
Because we don’t want to appear brain dead.
Brain dead? - My post wasn't casting judgement on the rights or wrongs of the decision to leave. I was simply wondering why we can't take a more aggressive stance when it comes to negotiations. Being a tougher negiator doesn't make you brain dead.don'tbesilly said:
It's just me suggesting May is being untruthful is it?
May wouldn't allow her deal to go ahead on Tuesday, May said in the HoC it would be defeated, her words.
The deal May has now worked hard to make more acceptable to those who would have voted against it on the Tuesday is now worse than the one she had on Monday according to sources who know far more than you or I.
It is a guess yes, but based on May's own words on Monday in the HoC it is a fairly sound guess with some form of credibility.
But you can carry on.
We don’t know the result of the vote because it hasn’t happened yet.May wouldn't allow her deal to go ahead on Tuesday, May said in the HoC it would be defeated, her words.
The deal May has now worked hard to make more acceptable to those who would have voted against it on the Tuesday is now worse than the one she had on Monday according to sources who know far more than you or I.
It is a guess yes, but based on May's own words on Monday in the HoC it is a fairly sound guess with some form of credibility.
But you can carry on.
You believe may when she says there won’t be another referendum yet you don’t believe other things she says.
As things evolve things change just like her saying there wouldn’t be a general election.
You and PH team leaves predictions have been wrong so far, TM is still PM.
and brexit is a joke.
otis criblecoblis said:
The cross party campaign group that was Leave could have wrote a million words on what they wanted, but a bit pointless when it was down to the government to interpret, just as they have done. Leave and Remain both campaigned on the same basic parts, and that was to fully leave, you leave the SM and CU.
Caroline Lucas is another Remain ultra who voted to hold the referendum, that she then immediately campaigned on saying how it would destroy the country. So she was either happy to take that risk, or may have been bulls
tting with the doom and gloom stuff. You pick which.
Like so many other Remain backing MPs, they overwhelmingly voted to hold a referendum that they sought to overturn the very second the result was announced. I guess they do at least reflect some of the more loon Remain voices on PH who's tantrums started immediately on the result.
The story of the referendum is one of total arrogance from Remain MPs who assumed a Remain vote was a given.
So you are claiming that a coherent Leave strategy presenting a united clear goal would have been pointless?Caroline Lucas is another Remain ultra who voted to hold the referendum, that she then immediately campaigned on saying how it would destroy the country. So she was either happy to take that risk, or may have been bulls
tting with the doom and gloom stuff. You pick which.Like so many other Remain backing MPs, they overwhelmingly voted to hold a referendum that they sought to overturn the very second the result was announced. I guess they do at least reflect some of the more loon Remain voices on PH who's tantrums started immediately on the result.
The story of the referendum is one of total arrogance from Remain MPs who assumed a Remain vote was a given.
At the moment I struggle to see how the current government can proceed with Brexit. There appears no overwhelming support for any of the Leave options that are on the table, no new clear and coherent plan presented by Team Leave. The largest voice appears to support a Peoples Vote.
David Davis seemed genuinely taken aback by Caroline's comments on QT and offered little response.
paulrockliffe said:
cookie118 said:
I think because although the EU don't want no-deal, we want it even less.
I think it's closer to the truth to say that our political class want it even less.paulrockliffe said:
cookie118 said:
I think because although the EU don't want no-deal, we want it even less.
I think it's closer to the truth to say that our political class want it even less.I can’t believe that people actually think that we spent 2 years negotiating and ending up with the backstop (best solution apparently) and that we would also at the same time consider no deal which would mean throwing everything out and not even worrying about Ireland which is the whole reason it took two years.
Absolutely mental.
The next interesting bit is going to be the EU ‘no deal’ planning news on Wednesday.
I presume this will be worded to put more pressure on the UK parliament by saying how bad it will be .......for us.
They will be screw turning to push for us staying in basically, never mind signing the current deal, which would be ok for them though, as they hold all the cards for the trade negotiations on that too due to the backstop.
Because of our lack of no deal planning we are painted into a corner now, and they are exploiting it, as they would.
The EU know labour (and SNP) are just going to vote against anything the tories do, even if the EU said ‘ok then, we will remove the backstop and pay you £39 billion and give you a instant free trade deal’, labour would still vote against it any say we need a general election so they could get a better deal for hard working families.
We’ve just made it too easy for them by our petty party politics. It’s pathetic and embarrassing really and quite frankly will hardly fill any other states with fear when/if we need to negotiate trade deals with others going forward.
Having said that, an interesting point was made earlier about the EU. We could have a bit of weekend fun with it.
Based on the current state of the EU, with all its issues, if we were outside now, and we’re having a referendum to join, how do you think that would go?
Join the EU
Not join the EU
I presume this will be worded to put more pressure on the UK parliament by saying how bad it will be .......for us.
They will be screw turning to push for us staying in basically, never mind signing the current deal, which would be ok for them though, as they hold all the cards for the trade negotiations on that too due to the backstop.
Because of our lack of no deal planning we are painted into a corner now, and they are exploiting it, as they would.
The EU know labour (and SNP) are just going to vote against anything the tories do, even if the EU said ‘ok then, we will remove the backstop and pay you £39 billion and give you a instant free trade deal’, labour would still vote against it any say we need a general election so they could get a better deal for hard working families.
We’ve just made it too easy for them by our petty party politics. It’s pathetic and embarrassing really and quite frankly will hardly fill any other states with fear when/if we need to negotiate trade deals with others going forward.
Having said that, an interesting point was made earlier about the EU. We could have a bit of weekend fun with it.
Based on the current state of the EU, with all its issues, if we were outside now, and we’re having a referendum to join, how do you think that would go?
Join the EU
Not join the EU
Reciprocating mass said:
What we do no is that brexit is a joke because Teresa the appeaser has totally fked it up
The plot was lost as soon as she called the previous general election and the result minimised her power.ked it up From that point onwards its all been about partisan childish game playing from MPs - who instead of representing their electorate chose to represent themselves.
But having said that May has shown determination and vigour to an extent....but its always been the case that she would never "look good" due to all her opposition.
So I'm not going to blame May(entirely) for the magnitude of the current mess, the problem has always been that MPs didn't unite for the national interest after the referendum, instead they decided to play vested interest and childish party politics at the cost of the national interest.
I do blame her for extremely misjudging the call for the previous general election - that is where it all went wrong.
Piha said:
Britain's politics and politicians are an utter embarrassment at the moment but it is deliciously entertaining to watch the tories & Brexit in such tormented disarray.
Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?
On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?
I did it was rather good but not unexpected, The Brexit Bulldog is not the sharpest tool in the box.Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?
On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?
A chap in the audience well and truly debagged him as well. DD had no comeback.
Piha said:
Britain's politics and politicians are an utter embarrassment at the moment but it is deliciously entertaining to watch the tories & Brexit in such tormented disarray. ALL Politicians, this is not a PP-thing
Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?
On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?
did she, all I saw was a green woman squawking a lot
Do we think that if the Leave campaign had produced a clear and coherent Brexit strategy during the referendum all of this mess could have been avoided?
On a separate note, did anyone see the wonderful Caroline Lucas put David Davis firmly back in his "fantasy" box on Question Time last night?
did she, all I saw was a green woman squawking a lot
Piha said:
So you are claiming that a coherent Leave strategy presenting a united clear goal would have been pointless?
It would have been largely pointless because none of the Leave campaign groups were a government or a government in waiting. Who exactly would have developed such a plan and what would stop another group from putting a totally different plan forward?
Cameron offered the choice, and in my opinion should have had at least an outline for what leaving would look like beforehand. However Cameron expected to win and presumably thought that almost any viable plan to do so would only decrease his chances of doing so.
That people chose an ill considered leap in tbe dark over the status quo enthusiastically endorsed by the government and the opposition really is a measure of how unpopular the EU is.
Piha said:
otis criblecoblis said:
The cross party campaign group that was Leave could have wrote a million words on what they wanted, but a bit pointless when it was down to the government to interpret, just as they have done. Leave and Remain both campaigned on the same basic parts, and that was to fully leave, you leave the SM and CU.
Caroline Lucas is another Remain ultra who voted to hold the referendum, that she then immediately campaigned on saying how it would destroy the country. So she was either happy to take that risk, or may have been bullstting with the doom and gloom stuff. You pick which.
Like so many other Remain backing MPs, they overwhelmingly voted to hold a referendum that they sought to overturn the very second the result was announced. I guess they do at least reflect some of the more loon Remain voices on PH who's tantrums started immediately on the result.
The story of the referendum is one of total arrogance from Remain MPs who assumed a Remain vote was a given.
So you are claiming that a coherent Leave strategy presenting a united clear goal would have been pointless?Caroline Lucas is another Remain ultra who voted to hold the referendum, that she then immediately campaigned on saying how it would destroy the country. So she was either happy to take that risk, or may have been bulls
tting with the doom and gloom stuff. You pick which.Like so many other Remain backing MPs, they overwhelmingly voted to hold a referendum that they sought to overturn the very second the result was announced. I guess they do at least reflect some of the more loon Remain voices on PH who's tantrums started immediately on the result.
The story of the referendum is one of total arrogance from Remain MPs who assumed a Remain vote was a given.
At the moment I struggle to see how the current government can proceed with Brexit. There appears no overwhelming support for any of the Leave options that are on the table, no new clear and coherent plan presented by Team Leave. The largest voice appears to support a Peoples Vote.
David Davis seemed genuinely taken aback by Caroline's comments on QT and offered little response.
The Lancaster House speech seemed to cover most of what the campaign was about, which was why it was broadly accepted.
I didn't see QT last night, but found it interesting you call her wonderful, when she is exactly the MP type who got you into what you see as a total mess. Perhaps you not touching on that point says quite a bit.
paulrockliffe said:
Will read the Ivan Rogers thing properly later, I presume it's broadly what he was saying last time he made a speech. I had a quick skim and thought it interesting that he mentioned FCA being a load of nonsense that van't fly vs the current situation that the Civil Service are recruiting people to implement FCA.
It will need two or three reads to do it justice and critique properly.Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff