How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
pgh said:
Murph7355 said:
(Just noticed I'll have to spend 7Euro PER FAMILY MEMBER to go to 'rife next!! CALL IT OFF. BREXIT HAS ALL BEEN A BAD DREAM. I NOW KNOW WHAT THE DOOM mongerS WERE TALKING ABOUT.)
I make that a saving of about £135 per person, per year 
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsec...More if you count those who don't travel to the EU
Vanden Saab said:
Piha said:
ash73 said:
Some interesting details here:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
Thanks for the link.https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
The article makes grim reading.
Sway said:
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
That would be the "court" that's currently unable to field a full roster?
We've had two years of negotiations - the outcome of which have a material impact on the needs regarding the goods border. So it's entirely understandable that we're in a position of needing to act quickly without a fully detailed plan.
Implementation periods are entirely normal for WTO, and the pace of the arbitration process is slow enough that it's entirely likely by the time of any judgement, the full solution would already be in place.
You may be "sure" - you also have limited experience of how international trade disputes are heard, and have spent two years misrepresenting normal WTO practice relating to border change and ignoring the rebuttals - waiting a few weeks to pop up again with exactly the same argument...
Just as you've completely ignored the responses pointing out you don't need the same level of "control" over every border, and every category of goods/CoO.
I have never used the word sure because I have limited knowledge of trade disputes, I suspect you are the same.We've had two years of negotiations - the outcome of which have a material impact on the needs regarding the goods border. So it's entirely understandable that we're in a position of needing to act quickly without a fully detailed plan.
Implementation periods are entirely normal for WTO, and the pace of the arbitration process is slow enough that it's entirely likely by the time of any judgement, the full solution would already be in place.
You may be "sure" - you also have limited experience of how international trade disputes are heard, and have spent two years misrepresenting normal WTO practice relating to border change and ignoring the rebuttals - waiting a few weeks to pop up again with exactly the same argument...
Just as you've completely ignored the responses pointing out you don't need the same level of "control" over every border, and every category of goods/CoO.
It does seem odd the UK government thinks there is a problem the Irish government thinks there is a problem, the EU thinks there is a problem, all the experts on trade think it’s a problem.
Whereas a couple of posters on a car forum know better.
Mrr T said:
So let’s see how this works.
Harwich goods entering from outside the EU. Have to have custom declaration. Which are matched to the goods and VAT and tariffs paid, the goods are then allowed to cross into the UK. Goods entering the UK from Ireland. No documentation, no controls no collection of VAT or tariffs. I am sure the WTO court will agree these are broadly similar.
We can certainly argue it’s a border change and change could not be implemented in time. Mind you we have 2 years and our only plans are a half page description of a technology solution. Again you might win but then again the court might think you are an idiot
I've highlighted in bold, then again your closing statement making it quite clear in your opinion anyone suggesting that a reasonable implementation period wouldn't be agreed and instead we'd be found in breach is an idiot. Harwich goods entering from outside the EU. Have to have custom declaration. Which are matched to the goods and VAT and tariffs paid, the goods are then allowed to cross into the UK. Goods entering the UK from Ireland. No documentation, no controls no collection of VAT or tariffs. I am sure the WTO court will agree these are broadly similar.
We can certainly argue it’s a border change and change could not be implemented in time. Mind you we have 2 years and our only plans are a half page description of a technology solution. Again you might win but then again the court might think you are an idiot
I have never considered the word might = sure but again my spelling something’s lets me down.
Sway said:
You seemed quite sure earlier today.
Amazingly, the Irish and British Governments aren't necessarily speaking with one mind.
Incomplete list of people suggesting there is no issue with a technology border:
Bertie Ahearn
David Davis
Jacob Rees Mogg
Michel Barnier
ERG
The nation of Norway
The nation of Sweden
WTO
Of course, I've not relied on argument by personality - I've presented why I don't believe there's any issue, and the processes that the WTO have to approach such a suggestion.
You resort to "but people are saying that doesn't work" - with no rationale for why.
We've done this loop several times - I'll just skip to your typical final statement, which is "yeah, but how much and how long" - which also shows you yourself know there's no issue legally...
I love your list of supporters of a technology border, a retired Irish PM with no expert knowledge, 3 brexit buffoons, the brexit buffoon club, Barnier who’s quote you use in a clearly misleading manner, two countries who are in the SM so the border is only a tariff border and the WTO who do not build borders.Amazingly, the Irish and British Governments aren't necessarily speaking with one mind.
Incomplete list of people suggesting there is no issue with a technology border:
Bertie Ahearn
David Davis
Jacob Rees Mogg
Michel Barnier
ERG
The nation of Norway
The nation of Sweden
WTO
Of course, I've not relied on argument by personality - I've presented why I don't believe there's any issue, and the processes that the WTO have to approach such a suggestion.
You resort to "but people are saying that doesn't work" - with no rationale for why.
We've done this loop several times - I'll just skip to your typical final statement, which is "yeah, but how much and how long" - which also shows you yourself know there's no issue legally...
If you can commit to build a technology border in a few months. Also you should explain how will you deal with SPS products. I might agree. Since the whole concept of the technology border is no more than a single side of paper at the moment. I suggest you are over stating your case.
I have gone through a week of "couldn't be arsed" with all this s
te.
I have just caught up and I understand we have the following options left:
1. May Deal - likely to be overturn in the HoC
2. No Deal - likely to happen if none of the plonkers in the HoC can agree
3. Go cap in hand to ECJ and EU and abort A50
4. Referendum - hope that the politicians will listen to the vote if the right questions ask - unlikely / no time
5. Extend A50 - unlikely [probably won't solve the disagreement in HoC] and the PH servers will have to be shored up for more magic roundabouts of discussion / crap
6. Mass riots / civil war - unlikely, handbags and umbrellas are fairly useless
Have I missed something?
te.I have just caught up and I understand we have the following options left:
1. May Deal - likely to be overturn in the HoC
2. No Deal - likely to happen if none of the plonkers in the HoC can agree
3. Go cap in hand to ECJ and EU and abort A50
4. Referendum - hope that the politicians will listen to the vote if the right questions ask - unlikely / no time
5. Extend A50 - unlikely [probably won't solve the disagreement in HoC] and the PH servers will have to be shored up for more magic roundabouts of discussion / crap
6. Mass riots / civil war - unlikely, handbags and umbrellas are fairly useless
Have I missed something?
Digga said:
Vanden Saab said:
Piha said:
ash73 said:
Some interesting details here:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
Thanks for the link.https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
The article makes grim reading.
pgh said:
Fullook said:
pgh said:
Murph7355 said:
(Just noticed I'll have to spend 7Euro PER FAMILY MEMBER to go to 'rife next!! CALL IT OFF. BREXIT HAS ALL BEEN A BAD DREAM. I NOW KNOW WHAT THE DOOM mongerS WERE TALKING ABOUT.)
I make that a saving of about £135 per person, per year https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsec...More if you count those who don't travel to the EU
I fully agree that It's very difficult indeed to calculate the exact liability arising from membership of a political union that is currently circling the plughole of economic doom.
wiggy001 said:
I completely agree with Murph7355 on this one but to answer your question, from my point of view the Tories would be better off implementing Brexit than not, for the simple reason that most of their natural supporters will be relatively unaffected regardless of the outcome of leaving the EU. Also, with the opposition completely unelectable for the foreseeable, they have nothing to lose IMHO.
Renege on Brexit and they will be punished at the polls but worse, the electorate will become even more disillusioned. I'd guess that in general the left are the more active/shouty types that would go to the polls to protest and any perceived injustice from Brexit. The right just wouldn't bother voting.
I may vote for them again if they renege on it.Renege on Brexit and they will be punished at the polls but worse, the electorate will become even more disillusioned. I'd guess that in general the left are the more active/shouty types that would go to the polls to protest and any perceived injustice from Brexit. The right just wouldn't bother voting.
Otherwise I intend to vote for anyone and anything that'll do most damage the Tories. I expect a large chunk of the 48% will do the same.
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
Mrr T said:
Sway said:
That would be the "court" that's currently unable to field a full roster?
We've had two years of negotiations - the outcome of which have a material impact on the needs regarding the goods border. So it's entirely understandable that we're in a position of needing to act quickly without a fully detailed plan.
Implementation periods are entirely normal for WTO, and the pace of the arbitration process is slow enough that it's entirely likely by the time of any judgement, the full solution would already be in place.
You may be "sure" - you also have limited experience of how international trade disputes are heard, and have spent two years misrepresenting normal WTO practice relating to border change and ignoring the rebuttals - waiting a few weeks to pop up again with exactly the same argument...
Just as you've completely ignored the responses pointing out you don't need the same level of "control" over every border, and every category of goods/CoO.
I have never used the word sure because I have limited knowledge of trade disputes, I suspect you are the same.We've had two years of negotiations - the outcome of which have a material impact on the needs regarding the goods border. So it's entirely understandable that we're in a position of needing to act quickly without a fully detailed plan.
Implementation periods are entirely normal for WTO, and the pace of the arbitration process is slow enough that it's entirely likely by the time of any judgement, the full solution would already be in place.
You may be "sure" - you also have limited experience of how international trade disputes are heard, and have spent two years misrepresenting normal WTO practice relating to border change and ignoring the rebuttals - waiting a few weeks to pop up again with exactly the same argument...
Just as you've completely ignored the responses pointing out you don't need the same level of "control" over every border, and every category of goods/CoO.
It does seem odd the UK government thinks there is a problem the Irish government thinks there is a problem, the EU thinks there is a problem, all the experts on trade think it’s a problem.
Whereas a couple of posters on a car forum know better.
Mrr T said:
So let’s see how this works.
Harwich goods entering from outside the EU. Have to have custom declaration. Which are matched to the goods and VAT and tariffs paid, the goods are then allowed to cross into the UK. Goods entering the UK from Ireland. No documentation, no controls no collection of VAT or tariffs. I am sure the WTO court will agree these are broadly similar.
We can certainly argue it’s a border change and change could not be implemented in time. Mind you we have 2 years and our only plans are a half page description of a technology solution. Again you might win but then again the court might think you are an idiot
I've highlighted in bold, then again your closing statement making it quite clear in your opinion anyone suggesting that a reasonable implementation period wouldn't be agreed and instead we'd be found in breach is an idiot. Harwich goods entering from outside the EU. Have to have custom declaration. Which are matched to the goods and VAT and tariffs paid, the goods are then allowed to cross into the UK. Goods entering the UK from Ireland. No documentation, no controls no collection of VAT or tariffs. I am sure the WTO court will agree these are broadly similar.
We can certainly argue it’s a border change and change could not be implemented in time. Mind you we have 2 years and our only plans are a half page description of a technology solution. Again you might win but then again the court might think you are an idiot
I have never considered the word might = sure but again my spelling something’s lets me down.
Sway said:
You seemed quite sure earlier today.
Amazingly, the Irish and British Governments aren't necessarily speaking with one mind.
Incomplete list of people suggesting there is no issue with a technology border:
Bertie Ahearn
David Davis
Jacob Rees Mogg
Michel Barnier
ERG
The nation of Norway
The nation of Sweden
WTO
Of course, I've not relied on argument by personality - I've presented why I don't believe there's any issue, and the processes that the WTO have to approach such a suggestion.
You resort to "but people are saying that doesn't work" - with no rationale for why.
We've done this loop several times - I'll just skip to your typical final statement, which is "yeah, but how much and how long" - which also shows you yourself know there's no issue legally...
I love your list of supporters of a technology border, a retired Irish PM with no expert knowledge, 3 brexit buffoons, the brexit buffoon club, Barnier who’s quote you use in a clearly misleading manner, two countries who are in the SM so the border is only a tariff border and the WTO who do not build borders.Amazingly, the Irish and British Governments aren't necessarily speaking with one mind.
Incomplete list of people suggesting there is no issue with a technology border:
Bertie Ahearn
David Davis
Jacob Rees Mogg
Michel Barnier
ERG
The nation of Norway
The nation of Sweden
WTO
Of course, I've not relied on argument by personality - I've presented why I don't believe there's any issue, and the processes that the WTO have to approach such a suggestion.
You resort to "but people are saying that doesn't work" - with no rationale for why.
We've done this loop several times - I'll just skip to your typical final statement, which is "yeah, but how much and how long" - which also shows you yourself know there's no issue legally...
If you can commit to build a technology border in a few months. Also you should explain how will you deal with SPS products. I might agree. Since the whole concept of the technology border is no more than a single side of paper at the moment. I suggest you are over stating your case.
Sweden and Norway implemented a WTO compliant border that was lauded for it's efficiency at the time. That border does deal with tariffs - for goods originally imported into Norway under FTA that the EU doesn't have. The external tariff is applied.
Barnier did indeed suggest a WTO compliant technology border.
The WTO don't build borders, but are the ones you're talking about having the court that decides what's OK.
I've never suggested a solution needs to be built in months - I've said the exact opposite dozens of times. To refresh your memory, here's why:
https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases...
A simple dispute over residential washers.
Four years to a decision, "reasonable period to implement findings" - 15 months.
Nothing needs doing "in a couple of months".
PositronicRay said:
Digga said:
Vanden Saab said:
Piha said:
ash73 said:
Some interesting details here:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
Thanks for the link.https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
The article makes grim reading.
There have been plans pushed through (i.e. there is no need for HMG to obtain planning permission in the first place) for additional vehicle parking at all cross channel ports. Measures like that, as just one example, would have been ongoing at the time of this report being complied.
PositronicRay said:
gadgetmac said:
So its £7 and we have to get preauthorisation to travel to the EU.
Another Brexiteer promise broken.
We could charge £200 per visit from an EU citizen to mitigate, and make them apply 3 months in advance. That'll show em. Another Brexiteer promise broken.
pistonheads2018 said:
Max_Torque said:
This is a similar task to trying to find a bunch of mathematicians to make 2 + 2 = 5.
Sure, a 'better" team could probably get a few minor advantages in the legal framework, but the simple fact is we are not 'bargaining from a position of strength" and never have been.......
We do undoubtedly have strengths to negotiate from, however May never tried to do so, even her desire was to Remain.Sure, a 'better" team could probably get a few minor advantages in the legal framework, but the simple fact is we are not 'bargaining from a position of strength" and never have been.......
gadgetmac said:
So its £7 and we have to get preauthorisation to travel to the EU.
Another Brexiteer promise broken.
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.Another Brexiteer promise broken.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
Digga said:
PositronicRay said:
Digga said:
Vanden Saab said:
Piha said:
ash73 said:
Some interesting details here:
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
Thanks for the link.https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/...
The article makes grim reading.
There have been plans pushed through (i.e. there is no need for HMG to obtain planning permission in the first place) for additional vehicle parking at all cross channel ports. Measures like that, as just one example, would have been ongoing at the time of this report being complied.
There are plans to extend operation stack on the M20 and M26, which do not need planning permission.
Not sure having to plans to park lorries for long periods of time while they wait to cross the channel because the crossing are blocked by vehicle awaiting customs clearance is ideal.
Helicopter123 said:
PositronicRay said:
gadgetmac said:
So its £7 and we have to get preauthorisation to travel to the EU.
Another Brexiteer promise broken.
We could charge £200 per visit from an EU citizen to mitigate, and make them apply 3 months in advance. That'll show em. Another Brexiteer promise broken.
Who will fill all the extra Gites and French Hotels/Camp Sites ?.
The Dangerous Elk said:
Helicopter123 said:
PositronicRay said:
gadgetmac said:
So its £7 and we have to get preauthorisation to travel to the EU.
Another Brexiteer promise broken.
We could charge £200 per visit from an EU citizen to mitigate, and make them apply 3 months in advance. That'll show em. Another Brexiteer promise broken.
Who will fill all the extra Gites and French Hotels/Camp Sites ?.
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