How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
p1stonhead said:
Even as a firm remainer, people complaining about a £7 charge every 36 months are taking things to the extreme levels of remoaning I must say.
I just spent ten times that on a tank of petrol which will last me about the next 3 days. Perspective people.
I'm with you there. Bit of a first world problem albeit another self-inflicted one.I just spent ten times that on a tank of petrol which will last me about the next 3 days. Perspective people.
p1stonhead said:
Even as a firm remainer, people complaining about a £7 charge every 36 months are taking things to the extreme levels of remoaning I must say.
I just spent ten times that on a tank of petrol which will last me about the next 3 days. Perspective people.
I am not complaining, just trying to get to the bottom of it.I just spent ten times that on a tank of petrol which will last me about the next 3 days. Perspective people.
The 7 quid is neither here nor there.
The admin is a minor irritation for most, a hurdle for some.
If you need health cover then that's a problem for many
If you have a criminal record it's an issue
On the positive UK and US have agreed a protocol to enable reinsurers to keep working together should no deal be done to keep the current EU protocols in place for a transition. So that's many millions secured going forward.
Edited by anonymous-user on Friday 14th December 18:47
Some other vaguely positive news - Switzerland has agreed (and agreed a text) to roll over its trade deal with the EU for the UK - I believe this is the first one that's been completed (South Africa have agreed in principle and there may be others).
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-swis...
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-swis...
Ghibli said:
Bill said:
Very true. The pound's devaluation is already costing many, many times that.
You need to think of the trade deals we will be getting. 
We have no detail on them yet but I suspect Rees Mogg will have a range of designer clothing out before long.
Quite the mess...
We are stuck with a few scenarios and none are particularly rosy:
1- The deal somehow passes Parliament and we need to take it as is, not a real independence but maybe the economy won't suffer as much;
2- The deal fails to pass Parliament: a no deal hard brexit will be on the cards, along with Tory party leadership and call for general elections. Labour will easily win. This then is followed by SNP going for referendum and I am sure EU will "assure them they can join EU" this will break the Union and it will be start of the end for the United Kingdom. NI, Wales will follow I am sure.
Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?
I just don't see how this will ever work. Almost 2 years ago when Theresa May took the lead why didn't all political parties put personal differences aside and worked constructively to get a good Brexit deal. She had basically no teeth to fight EU because of the minimum support from her own party and the Parliament. The Parliament should work towards the result of the referendum. It is a sad state of affairs and in my view it is a defeat of UK as we know it without going into a war. UK economy no doubt will shrink substantially and years of adaptation to a reality that we will be a second tier country in the world stage.
I know just pessimistic but please show me the light, I can't see any...
We are stuck with a few scenarios and none are particularly rosy:
1- The deal somehow passes Parliament and we need to take it as is, not a real independence but maybe the economy won't suffer as much;
2- The deal fails to pass Parliament: a no deal hard brexit will be on the cards, along with Tory party leadership and call for general elections. Labour will easily win. This then is followed by SNP going for referendum and I am sure EU will "assure them they can join EU" this will break the Union and it will be start of the end for the United Kingdom. NI, Wales will follow I am sure.
Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?
I just don't see how this will ever work. Almost 2 years ago when Theresa May took the lead why didn't all political parties put personal differences aside and worked constructively to get a good Brexit deal. She had basically no teeth to fight EU because of the minimum support from her own party and the Parliament. The Parliament should work towards the result of the referendum. It is a sad state of affairs and in my view it is a defeat of UK as we know it without going into a war. UK economy no doubt will shrink substantially and years of adaptation to a reality that we will be a second tier country in the world stage.
I know just pessimistic but please show me the light, I can't see any...
So what does everyone currently think is going to be the end result of all this? Not what you want to happen but what you think will happen.
It seems to me there are currently three possibilities, although who knows if things may change, and with numerous different ways as to how we might reach them (Some more plausible than others):
1) Remain
2) Leave with no deal
3) Leave with May's deal or something close to it
Completely different deals (Norway plus or Norway minus or whatever) don't seem possible at the moment given the EU's current refusal to reopen negotiations and the clock running down to end of March.
I am beginning to think that May's deal, possibly with some minor extra, largely meaningless, weasel words added by the EU at the last minute will be what we end up with because as time runs down so does the time to go any other route and that ultimately Parliament will be left with enough time only to choose between May's deal and No Deal.
It seems to me there are currently three possibilities, although who knows if things may change, and with numerous different ways as to how we might reach them (Some more plausible than others):
1) Remain
2) Leave with no deal
3) Leave with May's deal or something close to it
Completely different deals (Norway plus or Norway minus or whatever) don't seem possible at the moment given the EU's current refusal to reopen negotiations and the clock running down to end of March.
I am beginning to think that May's deal, possibly with some minor extra, largely meaningless, weasel words added by the EU at the last minute will be what we end up with because as time runs down so does the time to go any other route and that ultimately Parliament will be left with enough time only to choose between May's deal and No Deal.
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
MX5Biologist said:
Fullook said:
I have no knowledge of international law and should therefore probably disqualify myself from answering this question.
But our credibility as a counterparty that honours its commitments, particularly its legal commitments, would be immeasurably and very publicly damaged if we 'ripped up' an agreement that was entered into in good faith.
Why would anybody enter into any other agreement with us in the future, whether a trading agreement or anything else if we have form for backing out of commitments when it later suits us to do so?
I remember being slightly perplexed as to why the UK honoured its commitment to hand back Hong Kong when its lease expired, when it was clearly against our immediate economic benefit to do so. I guess that the risk of seriously pissing off China was one very good reason, but actually it would have been unthinkable (and politically and economically suicidal) for the UK to brand itself as untrustworthy by doing anything other than honouring the agreement.
I believe the same principle applies here - albeit the specifics are very different.
Technically, only the New Territories were leased. But strategically, Hong Kong island was indefensible without that.But our credibility as a counterparty that honours its commitments, particularly its legal commitments, would be immeasurably and very publicly damaged if we 'ripped up' an agreement that was entered into in good faith.
Why would anybody enter into any other agreement with us in the future, whether a trading agreement or anything else if we have form for backing out of commitments when it later suits us to do so?
I remember being slightly perplexed as to why the UK honoured its commitment to hand back Hong Kong when its lease expired, when it was clearly against our immediate economic benefit to do so. I guess that the risk of seriously pissing off China was one very good reason, but actually it would have been unthinkable (and politically and economically suicidal) for the UK to brand itself as untrustworthy by doing anything other than honouring the agreement.
I believe the same principle applies here - albeit the specifics are very different.
Edited by Fullook on Friday 14th December 15:16
As for rendering the UK untrustworthy; I don't think so, because these would be unrelated agreements. And if we were to do it, its probably in a situation where relations with the EU have soured so much, we would likely not trus the EU at that point.
Examples are:
US Anti-Apartheid Act; Congress instructed the Secretary of State to terminate an Air Services Agreement with South Africa.
US terminating Treaty of Friendship, Commerce, and Navigation with Nicaragua
US terminating mutual defence pact with Taiwan
US terminating Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty
South Africa terminating bilateral investment treaties with he United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Spain, The Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg (with no notification).
Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela terminating participatiomn in the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes
Indonesia terminating investment treaty with the Netherlands, ustralia, China, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.
India terminating BITs with 58 states
Finland unilaterally canceled the Paris Peace Treaty (effectively the final event of WW2) to alow its military to expand in 1990; Finland was considered as an Axis Power.
Danish unilateral termination of tax treaties with France and Spain
etc
One MP was thinking about this:
https://www.edwardleigh.org.uk/news/full-stop-back...
So unilaterally terminating an agreement or treaty (some interpretations would say the WA is less than a treaty, and just a political agreement) in itself would not make the UK a pariah state. I suspect no party would hold it particularly against us if we chose to exit an agreement in this way; the conditions for us to do so would have a partular rancour. The EU might not be particularly happy, but, as I said, if it were the case we were doing this, I suspect relations with the EU would be non-existant.
jtremlett said:
So what does everyone currently think is going to be the end result of all this? Not what you want to happen but what you think will happen.
It seems to me there are currently three possibilities, although who knows if things may change, and with numerous different ways as to how we might reach them (Some more plausible than others):
1) Remain
2) Leave with no deal
3) Leave with May's deal or something close to it
Completely different deals (Norway plus or Norway minus or whatever) don't seem possible at the moment given the EU's current refusal to reopen negotiations and the clock running down to end of March.
I am beginning to think that May's deal, possibly with some minor extra, largely meaningless, weasel words added by the EU at the last minute will be what we end up with because as time runs down so does the time to go any other route and that ultimately Parliament will be left with enough time only to choose between May's deal and No Deal.
Well I'm hoping its what I voted for in 2016 , Which is despite remnant bullsIt seems to me there are currently three possibilities, although who knows if things may change, and with numerous different ways as to how we might reach them (Some more plausible than others):
1) Remain
2) Leave with no deal
3) Leave with May's deal or something close to it
Completely different deals (Norway plus or Norway minus or whatever) don't seem possible at the moment given the EU's current refusal to reopen negotiations and the clock running down to end of March.
I am beginning to think that May's deal, possibly with some minor extra, largely meaningless, weasel words added by the EU at the last minute will be what we end up with because as time runs down so does the time to go any other route and that ultimately Parliament will be left with enough time only to choose between May's deal and No Deal.
t and lies .. ta da WTO clear leave so we can be a big grown up sovereign nation ... Mind the st we have representing us in westminster maybe we should sack the whole self serving shower and ask the EU to declare Marshall law once they have the EU army up and running as it looks like Corbyn will soon be governing us ...Its no good looking to the MSM for any real information, common sense should tell you most of what they are printing is a mixture of speculation mixed with drivel.
If you wanted the real facts you would have looked them up yourself by now, if you have gone that far then you are a leaver, because nobody in there right mind, knowing the true picture of what the EU is, could possible contemplate being in bed with this parasite.
If you are still a remainer then I urge you to do a little research into the articles of the EU and how they have been/ are being used to ride roughshod over member states, its a story of blackmail and corruption.
It is NOT an issue where the British economy is in danger, where you will have to pay through the nose to travel, with six month delays at ports and shortage of medications, there is NOTHING that can not be bought and delivered from elsewhere in the world or made here.
The politicians are liars, trying desperately to safeguard their cushy little plans to stay on the public tit within the EU organisation when we kick them out of office here.
If you wanted the real facts you would have looked them up yourself by now, if you have gone that far then you are a leaver, because nobody in there right mind, knowing the true picture of what the EU is, could possible contemplate being in bed with this parasite.
If you are still a remainer then I urge you to do a little research into the articles of the EU and how they have been/ are being used to ride roughshod over member states, its a story of blackmail and corruption.
It is NOT an issue where the British economy is in danger, where you will have to pay through the nose to travel, with six month delays at ports and shortage of medications, there is NOTHING that can not be bought and delivered from elsewhere in the world or made here.
The politicians are liars, trying desperately to safeguard their cushy little plans to stay on the public tit within the EU organisation when we kick them out of office here.
jtremlett said:
I am beginning to think that May's deal, possibly with some minor extra, largely meaningless, weasel words added by the EU at the last minute will be what we end up with because as time runs down so does the time to go any other route and that ultimately Parliament will be left with enough time only to choose between May's deal and No Deal.
Up until last week, possibly. But with the Wightman ruling there is now the tantalising possibility for remainers that if they can grab the levers of power by 10:59.59pm on the 29th of March they can still cancel Brexit. With the way parliament is split there are as many people for that (possibly more) than there are for May's deal. With the chance of cancelling it that close and the numbers in the commons the way they are, there's an incentive to bring the government down rather than vote with it.
dasigty said:
Its no good looking to the MSM for any real information, common sense should tell you most of what they are printing is a mixture of speculation mixed with drivel.
If you wanted the real facts you would have looked them up yourself by now, if you have gone that far then you are a leaver, because nobody in there right mind, knowing the true picture of what the EU is, could possible contemplate being in bed with this parasite.
If you are still a remainer then I urge you to do a little research into the articles of the EU and how they have been/ are being used to ride roughshod over member states, its a story of blackmail and corruption.
It is NOT an issue where the British economy is in danger, where you will have to pay through the nose to travel, with six month delays at ports and shortage of medications, there is NOTHING that can not be bought and delivered from elsewhere in the world or made here.
The politicians are liars, trying desperately to safeguard their cushy little plans to stay on the public tit within the EU organisation when we kick them out of office here.
You need to put some links up to the information.If you wanted the real facts you would have looked them up yourself by now, if you have gone that far then you are a leaver, because nobody in there right mind, knowing the true picture of what the EU is, could possible contemplate being in bed with this parasite.
If you are still a remainer then I urge you to do a little research into the articles of the EU and how they have been/ are being used to ride roughshod over member states, its a story of blackmail and corruption.
It is NOT an issue where the British economy is in danger, where you will have to pay through the nose to travel, with six month delays at ports and shortage of medications, there is NOTHING that can not be bought and delivered from elsewhere in the world or made here.
The politicians are liars, trying desperately to safeguard their cushy little plans to stay on the public tit within the EU organisation when we kick them out of office here.
Helicopter123 said:
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
davepoth said:
Some other vaguely positive news - Switzerland has agreed (and agreed a text) to roll over its trade deal with the EU for the UK - I believe this is the first one that's been completed (South Africa have agreed in principle and there may be others).
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-swis...
I suppose we should be grateful it's not a worse deal than the one we already have...https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-swis...
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