How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
CrgT16 said:
Quite the mess...
We are stuck with a few scenarios and none are particularly rosy:
1- The deal somehow passes Parliament and we need to take it as is, not a real independence but maybe the economy won't suffer as much;
2- The deal fails to pass Parliament: a no deal hard brexit will be on the cards, along with Tory party leadership and call for general elections. Labour will easily win. This then is followed by SNP going for referendum and I am sure EU will "assure them they can join EU" this will break the Union and it will be start of the end for the United Kingdom. NI, Wales will follow I am sure.
Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?
I just don't see how this will ever work. Almost 2 years ago when Theresa May took the lead why didn't all political parties put personal differences aside and worked constructively to get a good Brexit deal. She had basically no teeth to fight EU because of the minimum support from her own party and the Parliament. The Parliament should work towards the result of the referendum. It is a sad state of affairs and in my view it is a defeat of UK as we know it without going into a war. UK economy no doubt will shrink substantially and years of adaptation to a reality that we will be a second tier country in the world stage.
I know just pessimistic but please show me the light, I can't see any...
Two years ago they didn't put their differences aside because they didn't like the democratic result and went in to a big sulk. You may have noticed that their sulk continues to this day.We are stuck with a few scenarios and none are particularly rosy:
1- The deal somehow passes Parliament and we need to take it as is, not a real independence but maybe the economy won't suffer as much;
2- The deal fails to pass Parliament: a no deal hard brexit will be on the cards, along with Tory party leadership and call for general elections. Labour will easily win. This then is followed by SNP going for referendum and I am sure EU will "assure them they can join EU" this will break the Union and it will be start of the end for the United Kingdom. NI, Wales will follow I am sure.
Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?
I just don't see how this will ever work. Almost 2 years ago when Theresa May took the lead why didn't all political parties put personal differences aside and worked constructively to get a good Brexit deal. She had basically no teeth to fight EU because of the minimum support from her own party and the Parliament. The Parliament should work towards the result of the referendum. It is a sad state of affairs and in my view it is a defeat of UK as we know it without going into a war. UK economy no doubt will shrink substantially and years of adaptation to a reality that we will be a second tier country in the world stage.
I know just pessimistic but please show me the light, I can't see any...
davepoth said:
Up until last week, possibly.
But with the Wightman ruling there is now the tantalising possibility for remainers that if they can grab the levers of power by 10:59.59pm on the 29th of March they can still cancel Brexit. With the way parliament is split there are as many people for that (possibly more) than there are for May's deal. With the chance of cancelling it that close and the numbers in the commons the way they are, there's an incentive to bring the government down rather than vote with it.
I cannot see Parliament unilaterally revoking Article 50. It would surely be political suicide when both main parties committed to respecting the referendum result in their manifestos (and beforehand). The Conservatives would not have a majority of their own MPs to do it and so would need Labour support and I cannot see why Labour would do it since they want a Conservative mess that helps them to win the next election. Therefore, my own view is that rescinding Article 50 is the least likely of any of the possible happenings before end of March (which probably means it will be announced tomorrow...).But with the Wightman ruling there is now the tantalising possibility for remainers that if they can grab the levers of power by 10:59.59pm on the 29th of March they can still cancel Brexit. With the way parliament is split there are as many people for that (possibly more) than there are for May's deal. With the chance of cancelling it that close and the numbers in the commons the way they are, there's an incentive to bring the government down rather than vote with it.
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
Helicopter123 said:
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
Helicopter123 said:
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
tumble dryer said:
Helicopter123 said:
gadgetmac said:
desolate said:
don'tbesilly said:
It's 7 Euros for 3 years pre-travel authorisation.
So at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
It's a busy thread and I tried to ask these questions beforeSo at today's rates £2.10 per year.
Under 18's are free.
I'd cancel my vote to Leave on the back of that Brexit bombshell!
Do you know if they will exclude people with a criminal record and if there is a requirement for travel/health insurance?
Presumably if you spend more than 90 days you'll need a resident Visa?
If you pass the initial questions, its £7 and you have your waiver.
If not, perhaps because of minor criminal conviction, you will need to apply for a VISA, so possibly an interview at an EU embassy and a delay before you can travel to the EU.
Those guilty of more serious crimes may well lose access to the continent.
I'm told 'security' a priority so expect exchange of criminal records to remain.
don'tbesilly said:
Sciatica my arse..............Drunken fool.CrgT16 said:
2- The deal fails to pass Parliament: a no deal hard brexit will be on the cards, along with Tory party leadership and call for general elections. Labour will easily win. This then is followed by SNP going for referendum and I am sure EU will "assure them they can join EU" this will break the Union and it will be start of the end for the United Kingdom. NI, Wales will follow I am sure.
Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?.
There is a huge gap in your thinking.Now, I am sure I am being negative but can someone with more political insight assure me that a hard brexit is not the begining of the end?.
No deal is unlikely to flow into a GE, given the one thing that unites the Tories and the DUP is a fear of Corbyn, and the fixed term Parliament Act makes it very difficult to trigger.
alfie2244 said:
Not even started on negotiating our share of the assets that we significantly contributed to.
The UK is taking on the role of the Male in the divorce proceedings so will by default get kicked out of the house he bought and paid for and have to pay the ex spouse to live there while she lords it up with the new bloke that was the reason the divorce happened in the first place.Problem is we failed to hide the nice car and bit of cash we had squirreled away.
Getragdogleg said:
alfie2244 said:
Not even started on negotiating our share of the assets that we significantly contributed to.
The UK is taking on the role of the Male in the divorce proceedings so will by default get kicked out of the house he bought and paid for and have to pay the ex spouse to live there while she lords it up with the new bloke that was the reason the divorce happened in the first place.Problem is we failed to hide the nice car and bit of cash we had squirreled away.
Getragdogleg said:
alfie2244 said:
Not even started on negotiating our share of the assets that we significantly contributed to.
The UK is taking on the role of the Male in the divorce proceedings so will by default get kicked out of the house he bought and paid for and have to pay the ex spouse to live there while she lords it up with the new bloke that was the reason the divorce happened in the first place.Problem is we failed to hide the nice car and bit of cash we had squirreled away.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
We elect MPs to represent our views and our interests.
We elected them to hold a referendum on EU membership on the basis they would implement the result, held the referendum and then elected MPs who promised to implement it.
Yes they would be legally entitled to revoke Article 50 but as I said in doing so they would be reneging on two general elections and the largest vote for anything in British political history. I don't consider that their duty, I consider it a complete betrayal of their duty, and one which the electorate will punish them for.
I mostly agree with you, but how would the electorate punish them?We elected them to hold a referendum on EU membership on the basis they would implement the result, held the referendum and then elected MPs who promised to implement it.
Yes they would be legally entitled to revoke Article 50 but as I said in doing so they would be reneging on two general elections and the largest vote for anything in British political history. I don't consider that their duty, I consider it a complete betrayal of their duty, and one which the electorate will punish them for.
Let’s say it’s a safe Tory seat, will thousands of voters now vote for a pro-EU Lib Dem candidate?
And in a safe Labour seat?
I guess UKIP might gain votes, but as in 2015, they’ll struggle to actually win any seats.
Getragdogleg said:
The UK is taking on the role of the Male in the divorce proceedings so will by default get kicked out of the house he bought and paid for and have to pay the ex spouse to live there while she lords it up with the new bloke that was the reason the divorce happened in the first place.
Problem is we failed to hide the nice car and bit of cash we had squirreled away.
In the event of no deal, crashing out, yada yada, and reverting to WTO, when it comes to the required negotiations thereafter (flights, banking, medicine etc), what does our post Brexit hand look like? Problem is we failed to hide the nice car and bit of cash we had squirreled away.
OK, I’ll rephrase that (given the negotiation shambles so far on our part), what have we got to play with?
jtremlett said:
cannot see Parliament unilaterally revoking Article 50. It would surely be political suicide when both main parties committed to respecting the referendum result in their manifestos (and beforehand). The Conservatives would not have a majority of their own MPs to do it and so would need Labour support and I cannot see why Labour would do it since they want a Conservative mess that helps them to win the next election. Therefore, my own view is that rescinding Article 50 is the least likely of any of the possible happenings before end of March (which probably means it will be announced tomorrow...).
If you work on the assumption that neither party has any policy that will make it through the commons, then trying to find a non-partisan majority is the only way through - that way you'd have individual MPs voting against the whip, so it's not a party issue. A lot of them would have some explaining to do at the next election, but if they genuinely feel the country got it wrong then you would assume they'd be willing to face those consequences.
We are going to see some weird parliamentary s
t in the next few months, so it can't be entirely discounted. tumble dryer said:
In the event of no deal, crashing out, yada yada, and reverting to WTO, when it comes to the required negotiations thereafter (flights, banking, medicine etc), what does our post Brexit hand look like?
OK, I’ll rephrase that (given the negotiation shambles so far on our part), what have we got to play with?
Business will take the lead in that, stop being a wimp.OK, I’ll rephrase that (given the negotiation shambles so far on our part), what have we got to play with?
don'tbesilly said:
gadgetmac said:
Jimboka said:
gadgetmac said:
So its £7 and we have to get preauthorisation to travel to the EU.
Another Brexiteer promise broken.
The same price as a coffee at the airport, bargain !Another Brexiteer promise broken.
Have you applied for a UK passport online? It couldn't be easier.
Have you booked flight tickets online?
Are you genuinely concerned about it?
If so I'm sure a 16yr old on work experience in a Post Office will help you out.
I can understand your point that it’s inexpensive and it’s quick. But right now the cost is ZERO and the effort is ZERO.
It’s a consequence of Brexit, face it. Surely you’re not that much in fear of Brexit collapsing that you’re trying to suggest this ESTA-ish thing is actually a good thing?
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