How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
In no deal, we can strike trade deals with non-EU that incentivises those countries to trade with us on attractive terms. We are an enormous market in terms of profit for EU manufacturers and they cannot afford to be excluded from or impeded in their trade with us.
The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in s
t street and that is what they're really afraid of.
The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in s
t street and that is what they're really afraid of. Garvin said:
Please enlighten me on what remain will mean in terms of, you know, currency, shengen, vetos, rebates, EU army etc., etc. Please also enlighten me on what would happen in the political arena if the vote is very close either way?
Another 2 year plus st sandwich from a bunch of 3rd rate tossers who can't see beyond their donors and their short term job prospects???Ghibli said:
Garvin said:
Please enlighten me on what remain will mean in terms of, you know, currency, shengen, vetos, rebates, EU army etc., etc. Please also enlighten me on what would happen in the political arena if the vote is very close either way?
Remain will be remaining a member of the EU. It won't be a mystic meg version.Garvin said:
I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?
That was the judgement of the ECJ...bhstewie said:
hstewie said:Garvin said:
Please enlighten me on what remain will mean in terms of, you know, currency, shengen, vetos, rebates, EU army etc., etc. Please also enlighten me on what would happen in the political arena if the vote is very close either way?
I tend to think shengen, the Euro, EU army is used just as much as "Project Fear" was during the previous campaign.Let's pretend there hadn't been a referendum.
How much closer are we now towards any of those things?
Be that as it may please define in unambiguous terms what will be the terms of our membership of the EU if a remain vote wins the day.
Garvin said:
I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?
Did the ECJ judgement mention anything about having to renegotiate our terms of membership if we did revoke A50?Garvin said:
Perhaps I am mistaken but the EU has moved towards a common army against UK’s expressed wishes.
Be that as it may please define in unambiguous terms what will be the terms of our membership of the EU if a remain vote wins the day.
I've seen some EU funding logos on armoured vehicles in Paris but don't know of anything else.Be that as it may please define in unambiguous terms what will be the terms of our membership of the EU if a remain vote wins the day.
Membership would be on the terms we were on as the ECJ ruled we have the right to unilaterally revoke Article 50.
Again, my understanding, not claiming to have any special insight on either.
janesmith1950 said:
In no deal, we can strike trade deals with non-EU that incentivises those countries to trade with us on attractive terms. We are an enormous market in terms of profit for EU manufacturers and they cannot afford to be excluded from or impeded in their trade with us.
The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in st street and that is what they're really afraid of.
Oh christ you will set all the nay sayers and doom merchants off again !!! We are too small , we don't make anything anymore , food shortages nurses leaving the NHS, links guardian and BBC puff pieces about how bad a no deal is etc ..The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in s
t street and that is what they're really afraid of. 
Garvin said:
I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?
Have you been keeping up with events recently?JuanCarlosFandango said:
They can't even agree what to ask.
If they have the No Deal bogeyman on the ballot paper there's no guarantee that it won't be voted for.
If they have remain on the ballot paper many leavers will never see it as anything but a fix.
If they end up with this deal through second preference no-one is happy.
If they end up with remain on a much reduced turn out then it has no legitimacy.
.
Well yesIf they have the No Deal bogeyman on the ballot paper there's no guarantee that it won't be voted for.
If they have remain on the ballot paper many leavers will never see it as anything but a fix.
If they end up with this deal through second preference no-one is happy.
If they end up with remain on a much reduced turn out then it has no legitimacy.
.
The question has to be asked what is the second referendum for?. It is to provide political cover to abandoning the first referendum. Those MPs who want a referendum want to remain, they are not seeking guidance, they are seeking cover. If however leavers are just as pissed off by a gerrymandered second referendum then it has accomplished nothing.
If May's deal is dead, which it should be, then the Tories are left searching desperately for some means of ignoring the referendum result without scr*wing the party for a generation and there isn't one. The sooner they face that fact the sooner they can stop treading water and decide on a course of action.
janesmith1950 said:
In no deal, we can strike trade deals with non-EU that incentivises those countries to trade with us on attractive terms. We are an enormous market in terms of profit for EU manufacturers and they cannot afford to be excluded from or impeded in their trade with us.
The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in st street and that is what they're really afraid of.
That's the situation in a nutshell and it amazes me why so many people deny the truth and insist we must stay in the EU club or perish.The EU is not in a healthy financial state and by attaching ourselves to them, they are the sack of bricks around our ankle as we jump in the canal.
If Germany and France are left to fund Eastern and Southern Europe alone, they are in s
t street and that is what they're really afraid of. 44% of our trade in 2017 was with the EU and that's with a free trade area and effectively no customs barriers. So we must manage 56% outside of the EU despite having less favourable trading conditions. Why wouldn't you want to make the largest part of your export market easier to trade with ?
And for those wishing for Ref#2, what are you going to do when the vote is to Leave for the second time ? Vote LibDem ?
frisbee said:
Garvin said:
I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?
That was the judgement of the ECJ...Piha said:
Garvin said:
I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?
Have you been keeping up with events recently?
Piha said:
If there is another vote will the Brexiteers have an agreed single detailed plan on what they want? And will that plan be realistic and achievable?
same as the last one. leave sm, cu,no jurisdiction over uk law for ecj and no money to eu for anything other than collaborative projects.It's really not surprising that we're not getting anywhere when a group on PH can't seem to agree on anything at all. By now, I reckon there's at least half a dozen options for a possible way forward and then another half a dozen options for questions to be raised about how we would then next go forward.
A democratic vote indicated that we wanted to leave the EU.
No if's or but's, but Leave.
It will be a pity if we now leave without any deal but at least many of us have had a bit of time to plan for it - and only 3 months to wait.
A democratic vote indicated that we wanted to leave the EU.
No if's or but's, but Leave.
It will be a pity if we now leave without any deal but at least many of us have had a bit of time to plan for it - and only 3 months to wait.
wc98 said:
Piha said:
If there is another vote will the Brexiteers have an agreed single detailed plan on what they want? And will that plan be realistic and achievable?
same as the last one. leave sm, cu,no jurisdiction over uk law for ecj and no money to eu for anything other than collaborative projects.JagLover said:
Well it wouldn't just be to leave.
To have any democratic legitimacy "no deal" would have to be on the ballot, whether that be a straight choice with something or by a transferable vote.
Tory remainers would much rather a stich up than risk no deal, hence why a second referendum has not gained that much support among them.
If you add in that logistically a second referendum requires A50 extension there are major issues. It is not as if it suddenly solves the Tory parties internal issues either. After the mishandling of the negotiations, and the way that almost immediately after the GE result Tory Remainers starting stating they wouldn't follow the manifesto on which they had been elected, a significant proportion of leave voters would not be reconciled to a remain victory or with the Tory party.
agreed, i was humouring budgie. there will be no second referendum.To have any democratic legitimacy "no deal" would have to be on the ballot, whether that be a straight choice with something or by a transferable vote.
Tory remainers would much rather a stich up than risk no deal, hence why a second referendum has not gained that much support among them.
If you add in that logistically a second referendum requires A50 extension there are major issues. It is not as if it suddenly solves the Tory parties internal issues either. After the mishandling of the negotiations, and the way that almost immediately after the GE result Tory Remainers starting stating they wouldn't follow the manifesto on which they had been elected, a significant proportion of leave voters would not be reconciled to a remain victory or with the Tory party.
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