How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

[Helicopter123]

Garvin said:

Ghibli said:

Garvin said:

It’s always a possibility. However, how long will it take to sort out just what will be on the ballot paper to ensure a fair referendum? As far as I can see, any probable result, no matter the questions asked, will not really take the issue forward and will probably result in pretty much the same position we are at currently i.e. whoever loses will kick up stink on the basis that experience tells them that so doing will get them what they want!

If the HoC vote on Mays deal or no deal the result will then be the definition of what Brexit is. We would then have a leave or remain vote. People will know exactly what they are voting for.

Please enlighten me on what remain will mean in terms of, you know, currency, shengen, vetos, rebates, EU army etc., etc. Please also enlighten me on what would happen in the political arena if the vote is very close either way?

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

[The Dangerous Elk]

Helicopter123 said:

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

And there _you know_ you are telling fantasy stories.

[wc98]

p1stonhead said:

Not gonna happen as the past two years have shown. So what realistic things do you want?

wto it is then.

[davepoth]

The Dangerous Elk said:

Helicopter123 said:

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

And there _you know_ you are telling fantasy stories.

No, he's right. The CJEU has confirmed as such.

However, there will be significant pressure if we stay to be "good citizens" and give everything up.

[Randy Winkman]

Russian Troll Bot said:

Ghibli said:

Garvin said:

Please enlighten me on what remain will mean in terms of, you know, currency, shengen, vetos, rebates, EU army etc., etc. Please also enlighten me on what would happen in the political arena if the vote is very close either way?

Remain will be remaining a member of the EU. It won't be a mystic meg version.

So Remain didn't really know what they were voting for?

Is this a philosophy exam? If it is, I guess none of us knows anything about what will happen at any point in the future. And perhaps our memories of the past are equally unknown.

On the other hand. I voted remain and felt I did know what I voted for. I voted not to do something. i.e. leave the EU. The same way I know that I've decided not to go Christmas shopping this morning. It's not complicated, I'm just not going.

[Garvin]

bhstewie said:

Garvin said:

Yes. There are some criteria underpinning the ECJ judgement.

What are they please?

Everything I've read says that we can revoke and don't need permissions of member states and the terms would be the same as those we were on.

Simples. A democratic decision by UK is needed to revoke A50 and it has to be notified formally to the EU before the A50 expires and we leave. This could be via a parliamentary vote or a referendum. As we are talking here about another referendum there is no time to run one properly before the time limit. This means that the EU will have to agree to extend the time limit. Therefore, it is not solely in the hands of the UK to just revoke A50. I am not aware that the time limit has been extended.

[anonymous-user]

wc98 said:

wto it is then.

What about the special close relationship and bespoke trade deal that you voted for.

Have you changed your mind.

[bitchstewie]

Garvin said:

Simples. A democratic decision by UK is needed to revoke A50 and it has to be notified formally to the EU before the A50 expires and we leave. This could be via a parliamentary vote or a referendum. As we are talking here about another referendum there is no time to run one properly before the time limit. This means that the EU will have to agree to extend the time limit. Therefore, it is not solely in the hands of the UK to just revoke A50. I am not aware that the time limit has been extended.

Respectfully I think what you're outlining there is what you believe the process should look like.

I believe the legal process as ruled on by the ECJ is simply that the UK informs the EU that they're revoking A50.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Randy Winkman said:

Is this a philosophy exam? If it is, I guess none of us knows anything about what will happen at any point in the future. And perhaps our memories of the past are equally unknown.

On the other hand. I voted remain and felt I did know what I voted for. I voted not to do something. i.e. leave the EU. The same way I know that I've decided not to go Christmas shopping this morning. It's not complicated, I'm just not going.

But the people who want to go shopping have decided you will go shopping regardless.

That's how shopping works.

[Garvin]

bhstewie said:

Garvin said:

Simples. A democratic decision by UK is needed to revoke A50 and it has to be notified formally to the EU before the A50 expires and we leave. This could be via a parliamentary vote or a referendum. As we are talking here about another referendum there is no time to run one properly before the time limit. This means that the EU will have to agree to extend the time limit. Therefore, it is not solely in the hands of the UK to just revoke A50. I am not aware that the time limit has been extended.

Respectfully I think what you're outlining there is what you believe the process should look like.

I believe the legal process as ruled on by the ECJ is simply that the UK informs the EU that they're revoking A50.

In which case I need to renew my reading glasses.

[The Dangerous Elk]

davepoth said:

The Dangerous Elk said:

Helicopter123 said:

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

And there _you know_ you are telling fantasy stories.

No, he's right. The CJEU has confirmed as such.

However, there will be significant pressure if we stay to be "good citizens" and give everything up.

As said, Status Quo is a big LIE

[loafer123]

Helicopter123 said:

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

The rebates are being phased out, so our net contribution is due to rise rapidly.

[The Dangerous Elk]

And the Federal project moves on towards full take-over

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-defense-...

[Robertj21a]

loafer123 said:

Helicopter123 said:

Remain means unilateral revoke A50 = nothing changes from the deal we already have, the one negotiated by Thatcher and May with the rebate and opt outs.

The rebates are being phased out, so our net contribution is due to rise rapidly.

Do we also have to pay more for this new EU Army ? - and whatever money is needed to allow Albania, Turkey or Outer mongolia to join the existing 27/28 ? - and how could we ever afford all that alcohol that Juncker gets through ?

[PurpleMoonlight]

The Dangerous Elk said:

And the Federal project moves on towards full take-over

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-defense-...

Is a majority not democratic now?

[_Sorted_]

Robertj21a said:

It will be a pity if we now leave without any deal but at least many of us have had a bit of time to plan for it - and only 3 months to wait.

This^^^. Treating what has been trialled as all options leading to potential disasters as opportunity. Spent three months this year analysing and changing business. New website etc. Business was historically focused on one area and 80% UK. Now diversified and currently approx 20% EU, 35% US and balance UK. Now have a WWW shop etc and so on.

Not bad for a one man band with a budget, discounting considerable time, of less than 5K.

Three months to go take action if not done so already. Not all negative.

[don'tbesilly]

Garvin said:

frisbee said:

Garvin said:

I’m struggling with the precise definition of remaining here. Are you assuming that remain will be on exactly the same terms as we ‘enjoyed’ as members? If so, has such a definition been agreed by all other 27 EU member state or is it an absolute fact that A50 can just be revoked and nothing will have changed?

That was the judgement of the ECJ...

Not quite. It requires a democratic decision to be made and for that to be done via another referendum which, due to the timescale required, will require the EU to agree to an extension of A50 past 29th March. If and when that is done and the EU issue an unequivocal statement on the issue I’ll begin to believe it.

The EU could of course attach conditions to them extending A50 if and when the UK requests such, as even if the calling for a 2nd referendum was made by TM tomorrow, the referendum couldn't possibly be held in time between now and the 29th March 2019, which is the extent of the A50 time period set out by A50 itself.

The UK is at the mercy of the EU in granting permission for an extension to A50, they could well agree to extend A50 from the date A50 would have lapsed (29th March), and as such the conditions as ruled by the ECJ would have no relevance as the UK would have left on the 29th March anyway.

It will be interesting to see just how and in what way the EU will react when the request from the UK to extend A50 is received, they will have been busy since the ECJ ruling was made, and it won't be as straightforward as many are currently predicting.

Meanwhile some Senior Tory members are busy campaigning with Labour for a Labour Government, as when their plans for a 2nd referendum do come about the inevitable Tory collapse of their vote in the next GE will have reached it's full Momentum

[CrutyRammers]

Garvin said:

Simples. A democratic decision by UK is needed to revoke A50 and it has to be notified formally to the EU before the A50 expires and we leave. This could be via a parliamentary vote or a referendum. As we are talking here about another referendum there is no time to run one properly before the time limit. This means that the EU will have to agree to extend the time limit. Therefore, it is not solely in the hands of the UK to just revoke A50. I am not aware that the time limit has been extended.

i believe that the wording is "constitutional" rather than "democratic".

[Tankrizzo]

The Dangerous Elk said:

And the Federal project moves on towards full take-over

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-defense-...

I'm actually quite surprised it wasn't that way already. Asking 27 countries to all agree on something before you do it, in times of urgency, seems fairly bonkers. I suppose they will have to be careful not to let the stronger countries steamroller the others to a majority now, a bit like the Whips can apply pressure to key MPs to secure a vote.

[The Dangerous Elk]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Is a majority not democratic now?

Nice try but no fly. Apples and Oranges at a national level. How about majority Votes at the United Nations? Is that not your kind of democracy ??