How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!

It entirely reflects my experience in a lot of the EU. I admit I’ve little experience of Greece but certainly the ango Saxon and Gaelic bits seem broadly happy with their lot. Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts. Loads of Brits trying to get in.

[Jonesy23]

toppstuff said:

Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts.

That worked out well last time. Hope they learnt a few lessons.

[toppstuff]

Jonesy23 said:

That worked out well last time. Hope they learnt a few lessons.

Yes they have. The Irish resurgence is not driven by dodgy mortgages this time around. It’s just solid economic growth.

It’s a lot more Dublin focused than before however. Dublin is getting very expensive. The rest of the country is still affordable.

Meantime, Ireland has thousands of British professionals trying to get access to their market. For example, the Irish Law Society is inundated with applications from Brits wanting to practise in Ireland.

Even the taxi drivers are cheerful.

[SpeckledJim]

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!

It entirely reflects my experience in a lot of the EU. I admit I’ve little experience of Greece but certainly the ango Saxon and Gaelic bits seem broadly happy with their lot. Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts. Loads of Brits trying to get in.

Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.

[biggles330d]

alfie2244 said:

Ah the " they were too stupid to know what they were voting for" and now with the added bonus of "and now too embarrassed to admit they were wrong"...is that a fair assessment Biggles?

No, that's not what I said. But is there anyone in the country who voted in 2016 for Brexit and is sitting here now thinking "well, this is exactly how I hoped it would turn out"? Brexit appears to cover the full spectrum from a light touch in name only partial separation to full exit and WTO rules. That's the point. What 'leaving the EU' actually meant in 2016 was never defined and cannot be agreed on now by any party it seems.

People claim they knew what they were voting for and that's probably true - any one of those positions in that spectrum that aligned with their individual view.

I vaguely recall chat about Gibralter being difficult in 2016 but nothing from Gove, Farage, Johnston etc that Northern Island would be an intractable problem. Lots of motherhood and apple pie about huge sums washing back into the NHS, controlling immigration, being able to do the easiest deal in history with the EU because it's in our mutual interest. All of it has proven to be piss and wind.

I conceded that perhaps there are opportunities out of the EU and being in or out is a personal viewpoint both that have merits but what we have is a complete self-imposed mess.

Someone above said that the EU genie is out of the bottle and will be a constant theme going forward. Ok, that's fine, but we've been in for 45 years so what's so wrong with taking an election round and properly thinking it through as to what Brexit should mean next time if it came to it? in 2016 most of the political elite and business world were totally caught out with the yes vote. We've bungled through this with no agreement or clarity between ourselves on what it meant and what we want. We're in a mess and are 95% unprepared if the wheels properly fall off and we crash out in March. Nobody wants that, but nobody can agree as what we want as an alternative either and the cliff is fast approaching while we bicker.

It does amuse me when members of the public are asked and give answers like "we voted out, just get on with it". Have they missed the part about this being an enormously complicated and multifaced thing to do interweaved with long-standing legal and cultural ties that need to be properly unpicked to avoid chaos? The 'just get on with it"defense to me just shouts that the person really hasn't a clue on what they were voting to do and hasn't anyone's interests in their mind beyond their own.

Edited by biggles330d on Friday 7th December 10:03

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.

Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.

Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.

[SpeckledJim]

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.

Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.

Seems very very odd that all the EU's many problems aren't affecting its popularity. Indeed, the reverse. 20 years ago the EU didn't have most of the above problems. Yet apparently it was less popular then than it is today.

[Tuna]

StevieBee said:

I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.

I can never understand how that works - the EU has been very clear that it is not responsible for the structural problems of Greece, Italy etc. Joining requires that you increase your responsibilities, not hand them over to some magic central brain that solves all problems.

It's almost as if joining is seen as an easy way to get access to slush funds and vanity projects

The repeated fallacy is that a remote, faceless authority is commonly seen to be far more 'trustworthy' than the people you see directly, warts and all.

[The Dangerous Elk]

And where did Macron come from other than a last desperate attempt to stem the rise of Anti EU/Dissatisfaction with the Status Quo ?, not going well in France is it.

Just because you live in a Pro-Eu friends/work bubble does not make you correct.

[Vanden Saab]

SpeckledJim said:

"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!

Am I the only one who read the last line wrong....

[kayc]

toppstuff said:

Yes they have. The Irish resurgence is not driven by dodgy mortgages this time around. It’s just solid economic growth.

It’s a lot more Dublin focused than before however. Dublin is getting very expensive. The rest of the country is still affordable.

Meantime, Ireland has thousands of British professionals trying to get access to their market. For example, the Irish Law Society is inundated with applications from Brits wanting to practise in Ireland.

Even the taxi drivers are cheerful.

Whats the magic formula then that they have discovered that we haven't?Super low corporation tax that the Eu is trying to stop us having when we leave the Eu?

[toppstuff]

The Dangerous Elk said:

And where did Macron come from other than a last desperate attempt to stem the rise of Anti EU/Dissatisfaction with the Status Quo ?, not going well in France is it.

Just because you live in a Pro-Eu friends/work bubble does not make you correct.

And just because you live in an anti-EU
-raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.

I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. People don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.

Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.

[gooner1]

biggles330d said:

No, that's not what I said. But is there anyone in the country who voted in 2016 for Brexit and is sitting here now thinking "well, this is exactly how I hoped it would turn out"? Brexit appears to cover the full spectrum from a light touch in name only partial separation to full exit and WTO rules. That's the point. What 'leaving the EU' actually meant in 2016 was never defined and cannot be agreed on now by any party it seems.

People claim they knew what they were voting for and that's probably true - any one of those positions in that spectrum that aligned with their individual view.

I vaguely recall chat about Gibralter being difficult in 2016 but nothing from Gove, Farage, Johnston etc that Northern Island would be an intractable problem. Lots of motherhood and apple pie about huge sums washing back into the NHS, controlling immigration, being able to do the easiest deal in history with the EU because it's in our mutual interest. All of it has proven to be piss and wind.

I conceded that perhaps there are opportunities out of the EU and being in or out is a personal viewpoint both that have merits but what we have is a complete self-imposed mess.

Someone above said that the EU genie is out of the bottle and will be a constant theme going forward. Ok, that's fine, but we've been in for 45 years so what's so wrong with taking an election round and properly thinking it through as to what Brexit should mean next time if it came to it? in 2016 most of the political elite and business world were totally caught out with the yes vote. We've bungled through this with no agreement or clarity between ourselves on what it meant and what we want. We're in a mess and are 95% unprepared if the wheels properly fall off and we crash out in March. Nobody want's that, but nobody can agree as what we want as an alternative either and the cliff is fast approaching while we bicker.

Why do some posters and MP's insist that the UK has been a member of the EU for 45 years.
There was no EU until 1993. What we have now is not an Economic Commumity, if it were it is miserably failing several of it's members seemingly for the advancement of others.


1993
The European Economic Community (EEC) was a regional organisation which aimed to bring about economic integration among its member states. It was created by the Treaty of Rome of 1957. Upon the formation of the European Union (EU) in 1993, the EEC was incorporated and renamed as the European Community (EC).
European Economic Community - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Europea...

[toppstuff]

kayc said:

hats the magic formula then that they have discovered that we haven't?Super low corporation tax that the Eu is trying to stop us having when we leave the Eu?

Huh ??? Ireland is IN the EU and has super low corporation tax. This simply confirms that EU states can set their own tax rules. Duh...

Note that Ireland has a special approach to taxes. Corporation Taxes are very low to attract jobs - but personal taxes are very high. So they have pretty much FULL employment in Ireland because companies like going there and creating jobs, but personal income tax is higher than UK.

[Tuna]

toppstuff said:

Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.

I would suggest that most of them feel safe and stable and don't ascribe that feeling to membership of a distant political construct.

Are they any better at knowing their MEP's names than we are? Do they wave EU flags at parties? Or are they just getting on with their lives as most people do and not looking much further than their commute to work and holidays with their families?

[kayc]

toppstuff said:

And just because you live in an anti-EU
-raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.

I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. People don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.

Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.

Unfortunately that ambivalence and 'whatever' attitude didn't work out well historically did it?This stty little Island that you seem to believe us to be stood up then too..makes me sick the lack of pride and confidence people like you have with this country..i seriously don't understand that if its so st here you and others with your opinions don't just leave..its not compulsory to live here.

[JNW1]

toppstuff said:

Your You're still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

But the "facts" to which you refer is actually a poll commissioned by an institution of the EU (so hardly independent!). Moreover, it suggests the UK is pro-EU when it's quite clearly not; therefore, why should anyone believe anything else that's in there?

[toppstuff]

Tuna said:

I would suggest that most of them feel safe and stable and don't ascribe that feeling to membership of a distant political construct.

Are they any better at knowing their MEP's names than we are? Do they wave EU flags at parties? Or are they just getting on with their lives as most people do and not looking much further than their commute to work and holidays with their families?

No I would say you are wrong there.

Most of them at some high level “ get” the big picture plan of the EU. They are all acutely aware of their history as occupied lands that were razed in the war. They know the EU was created out of the ashes of this to provide sustainable peace. They get that. And it’s important. So I think you’re wrong. The “political construct “ is important.

It doesn’t stop Dutch people taking the mickey out of Belgians or Germans insulting the French. But they all seem to be laughing at the Brits with alarm. Like an old uncle who starts banging his head against the wall and won’t stop. It’s a mix of mocking laughter and concern.

[The Dangerous Elk]

toppstuff said:

And just because you live in an anti-EU
-raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.

I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. The people I mix with don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.

Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.

Nationalistic or Patriotism, simplistic lawyer trick words there chum.

Brexit is basically a Patriotic reaction to the federal dogma propagandised by the Eu. (with a sprinkle of nutter in the same way as pro Eu)