How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)

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Discussion

loafer123

7,492 posts

151 months

StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.


I think this is a very interesting point.

From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.

By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.

This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.

PurpleMoonlight

13,602 posts

93 months

loafer123 said:
I think this is a very interesting point.

From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.

By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.

This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Or you could say we are control freaks and don't partner well with others.


loafer123

7,492 posts

151 months

PurpleMoonlight said:
loafer123 said:
I think this is a very interesting point.

From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.

By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.

This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Or you could say we are control freaks and don't partner well with others.
It’s now how I would put it, but I don’t disagree with you.

biggles330d

119 posts

86 months

Perhaps we should have another election. Lib Dems could go on a 'st or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether.

They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.

They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.

I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.

Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of st that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about.
A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.

So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.

JNW1

4,029 posts

130 months

loafer123 said:
StevieBee said:
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.


I think this is a very interesting point.

From the U.K. perspective, as a substantial nation, a cradle of democracy and a big economy, we find it hard to delegate to the EU, an organisation dominated by Germany and France, and where we are unlikely to ever be given a policy leading role unless we join the Euro.

By contrast countries with weaker economies and weaker democratic histories are glad to have grown ups, even with faults, protecting their interests.

This, fundamentally, gets to the core of why we are not suited to be a member of the EU itself.
Interesting points both!

Probably serves to illustrate why trying to put diverging countries and economies together in one union isn't easy and doesn't always work well....
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silentbrown

4,061 posts

52 months

biggles330d said:
So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
Only in your (and my) dreams, I'm afraid. The two-party system is too deeply embedded in this country for the LD's to make such an impact. They pretty much took this position in 2017 and went from just 8 to 12 seats, despite having 57 in 2010. And with Cable's departure "once Brexit is resolved" their future leadership is pretty unclear.

Also they can't even get all 12 MPs on-side to vote against May's deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46470414




Russian Troll Bot

19,288 posts

163 months

biggles330d said:
Perhaps we should have another election. Lib Dems could go on a 'st or bust' strategy of single issue cancel Brexit altogether.

They've nothing to loose. A well established party and not some newcomer nut job. Some relatively recent experience of being in power, albeit in a coalition, a smattering of respected brains and pretty much no electorate support after the last election, whereas both Labour and Conservatives have both camps of brexiteers and remainers to keep onside.

They'd probably get a good slug of the SNP supporters for this one election, half the labour ones and half the conservative ones, the DUP ones, plus most of their own. They might emerge with a whopping majority. No need for a second referendum as a regular election would have very much given a mandate to knock it on the head.

I'm not a Lib Dem voter naturally, but for the sake of one parliamentary term, I'd vote for them on this single platform issue. How much damage could they do in one term??? Not as much as in my view Brexit will do over the same period. Following election, it would be staggaring for any party to propose resurecting a referrendum.

Any other outcome in an election won't resolve the issues at all. Conservatives are stuck and re-electing them won't change anything. Labour think they can magic another deal by taking a diffrent approach. Well, the EU has already said this deal or nothing so that's pure fantasy - they'll quickly find they are holding the steaming pile of st that is Brexit with no ability to do anything about it either. We'll have the joy of Corbyn then also in control of the country. It doesn't bear thinking about.
A second referendum would be devisive, no matter how much I'd welcome one.

So, my hope is that if the vote doesn't get through parliament, May is forced to resign and an election is called, Lib Dems take a very singluar and clear line and takes a vast parliamentary majority as they sweep up the 48%+.
They tried running the anti-Brexit manifesto in the last election, it failed completely and they are more irrelevant than ever. Also have to love the irony of a party with Democrats in their name staking everything on cancelling a democratic vote.

SpeckledJim

16,115 posts

189 months

toppstuff said:
kayc said:
ouldn't it be nice if our European friends had a vote too to see if your statement is true.
Several countries have had votes that gave people the chance to express concerns. A few months ago people were predicting the Dutch would want a leave vote. Never happened. And they don’t want it. They aren’t alone.

Quick google for EU support levels found this.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/...

Bottom line is your wishful thinking that anti -EU thinking is a consensus is utter bobbins.

Edited by toppstuff on Friday 7th December 08:08
"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!

biggles330d

119 posts

86 months

silentbrown said:
Only in your (and my) dreams, I'm afraid. The two-party system is too deeply embedded in this country for the LD's to make such an impact. They pretty much took this position in 2017 and went from just 8 to 12 seats, despite having 57 in 2010. And with Cable's departure "once Brexit is resolved" their future leadership is pretty unclear.

Also they can't even get all 12 MPs on-side to vote against May's deal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46470414
Maybe, but look how much traction UKIP managed get from a starting point of being a personality-led fringe party campainging on a single issue. I think if the case was made and not muddied with mixed messages - i.e. "if you want Brexit of any type, there are several other parties who you can vote for".

I think a surprising amount of people would see this for what it is, an opportunity to wash your hands of this mess and if necessary, return to your party affiliations in 5 year's time. I can't believe people are so entrenched as to vote for their 'colour' when there is something so much more vastly important at stake and currently an unresolved (unresolvable) festering mess.

What might happen if this occurred? The country might well remain split on the EU but there would be no denying that through the nation had an election and a very clear mandate was secured. Currently, we voted on an undefined yes/no question and its evident that even this non-partisan question has descended into a farce as the parties squabble amongst themselves rather than collaborating.

If they got in, the markets would suddenly have the security and forward confidence they crave. The £ would rise and investments that have been held back, diverted and put on ice might suddenly start flowing again quickly. I think there would be a collective sigh of relief in the nation. I'm sure there are many who argued strongly for Brexit in 2016 and feel they should stick to that line rather than being thought of as changing their mind or being seen as voting one way without really understanding what it meant in the detail.

FiF

33,699 posts

187 months

The problem that Remain, and by default the rest of us face, is that essentially the Brexit genie is out of the bottle. There is no magic lever or button that can be pulled and Brexit can be stopped, in the long term. Please note that emphasis.

The impending very British coup will ultimately unleash a completely unstoppable political realignment. Leavers have been naive, you win the referendum, the Govt enacts the decision. Remainers have been equally naive, failing to understand that the 2016 EURef cannot be undone, they have no plan to stop the consequent political realignment. It will, in the minds of many, now be us versus them. Plus the EU question will haunt every election until a bubble bursts. The Commons will no longer be seen as worthy of representing the common people. No longer trusted with the idea of leaving the EU, an idea that cannot be uninvented.


alfie2244

8,222 posts

124 months

biggles330d said:
I'm sure there are many who argued strongly for Brexit in 2016 and feel they should stick to that line rather than being thought of as changing their mind or being seen as voting one way without really understanding what it meant in the detail.
Ah the " they were too stupid to know what they were voting for" and now with the added bonus of "and now too embarrassed to admit they were wrong"...is that a fair assessment Biggles?

ITP

863 posts

133 months

StevieBee said:
JNW1 said:
toppstuff said:
The majority of people in the EU are quite strongly pro EU.
I wonder if that's true though? I'm sure a majority of people in the EU are pro-European and I actually think that applies to a majority of the people in the UK as well. However, that's quite different from being strongly pro the institutions and vision of the EU; there certainly isn't a majority for that in the UK - not even close IMO - and I'm not so sure people elsewhere in Europe are quite as wedded to the EU ideal as you suggest.

Most haven't been asked recently in a referendum and even if a majority voted to stay I suspect many would be doing so more because they could see it being difficult to leave rather than because they really want to be in. Personally I'm just not convinced the politician vision of ever closer union in a federal United States of Europe has strong support across the people of the EU; probably more chance of finding people who embrace the idea on continental Europe than in the UK but still not sure it would constitute a majority....
I have a lot of business interests, colleagues and friends in Europe, particularly towards the eastern fringes. In those countries, the populations would fall over themselves to hand all power to the EU on account of the ineffective governance of their own countries by their own governments. For similar reasons, you have countries like Bosnia and Albania desperate to join.
Hardly a surprise countries like Bosnia and Albania want to join is it. They wouldn’t be net contributors would they.

toppstuff

12,157 posts

183 months

SpeckledJim said:
"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!
It entirely reflects my experience in a lot of the EU. I admit I’ve little experience of Greece but certainly the ango Saxon and Gaelic bits seem broadly happy with their lot. Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts. Loads of Brits trying to get in.

Jonesy23

3,780 posts

72 months

toppstuff said:
Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts.
That worked out well last time. Hope they learnt a few lessons.

toppstuff

12,157 posts

183 months

Jonesy23 said:
That worked out well last time. Hope they learnt a few lessons.
Yes they have. The Irish resurgence is not driven by dodgy mortgages this time around. It’s just solid economic growth.

It’s a lot more Dublin focused than before however. Dublin is getting very expensive. The rest of the country is still affordable.

Meantime, Ireland has thousands of British professionals trying to get access to their market. For example, the Irish Law Society is inundated with applications from Brits wanting to practise in Ireland.

Even the taxi drivers are cheerful.

SpeckledJim

16,115 posts

189 months

toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
"The Eurobarometer survey commissioned by the European Parliament..."

Brilliant. I've also held a poll in our house, and it turns out I'm the best dad in the world, and the missus is the best cook!
It entirely reflects my experience in a lot of the EU. I admit I’ve little experience of Greece but certainly the ango Saxon and Gaelic bits seem broadly happy with their lot. Ireland is pumping right now - economy going nuts. Loads of Brits trying to get in.
Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.


biggles330d

119 posts

86 months

alfie2244 said:
Ah the " they were too stupid to know what they were voting for" and now with the added bonus of "and now too embarrassed to admit they were wrong"...is that a fair assessment Biggles?
No, that's not what I said. But is there anyone in the country who voted in 2016 for Brexit and is sitting here now thinking "well, this is exactly how I hoped it would turn out"? Brexit appears to cover the full spectrum from a light touch in name only partial separation to full exit and WTO rules. That's the point. What 'leaving the EU' actually meant in 2016 was never defined and cannot be agreed on now by any party it seems.

People claim they knew what they were voting for and that's probably true - any one of those positions in that spectrum that aligned with their individual view.

I vaguely recall chat about Gibralter being difficult in 2016 but nothing from Gove, Farage, Johnston etc that Northern Island would be an intractable problem. Lots of motherhood and apple pie about huge sums washing back into the NHS, controlling immigration, being able to do the easiest deal in history with the EU because it's in our mutual interest. All of it has proven to be piss and wind.

I conceded that perhaps there are opportunities out of the EU and being in or out is a personal viewpoint both that have merits but what we have is a complete self-imposed mess.

Someone above said that the EU genie is out of the bottle and will be a constant theme going forward. Ok, that's fine, but we've been in for 45 years so what's so wrong with taking an election round and properly thinking it through as to what Brexit should mean next time if it came to it? in 2016 most of the political elite and business world were totally caught out with the yes vote. We've bungled through this with no agreement or clarity between ourselves on what it meant and what we want. We're in a mess and are 95% unprepared if the wheels properly fall off and we crash out in March. Nobody wants that, but nobody can agree as what we want as an alternative either and the cliff is fast approaching while we bicker.

It does amuse me when members of the public are asked and give answers like "we voted out, just get on with it". Have they missed the part about this being an enormously complicated and multifaced thing to do interweaved with long-standing legal and cultural ties that need to be properly unpicked to avoid chaos? The 'just get on with it"defense to me just shouts that the person really hasn't a clue on what they were voting to do and hasn't anyone's interests in their mind beyond their own.



Edited by biggles330d on Friday 7th December 10:03

toppstuff

12,157 posts

183 months

SpeckledJim said:
Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.
Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.

toppstuff

12,157 posts

183 months

SpeckledJim said:
Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.
Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.

SpeckledJim

16,115 posts

189 months

toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
Seems a bit odd to me that, right now is the moment that the EU has never been more popular.

Rise of the right and 'populism'

5Star
Marine Le Pen
Geert Wilders
Merkel drowning
Macron drowning
Migrant crisis
Debt crisis
Visegrad group doing whatever it's doing.
Everyone in Southern Europe just sitting under a tree talking bks with their mates
Brexit

But no. Right now. Literally NOW is the moment in history that the EU reached peak popularity. In a poll commissioned by... the EU.

Ok.
Your still adapting the facts to fit your beliefs rather than interpret them to test and check your beliefs.
Wise up.

The fact remains that populism in the EU is on the rise. I accept that. But it remains a minority and considerably outnumbered by coalitions of centrist politicians. In Netherlands for example the populist movement is, if anything, retreating. It seeems to have peaked there at about 14% but these days Gert Wilders has lost a lot political currency.
Seems very very odd that all the EU's many problems aren't affecting its popularity. Indeed, the reverse. 20 years ago the EU didn't have most of the above problems. Yet apparently it was less popular then than it is today.