How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 6)
Discussion
The Dangerous Elk said:
Let me just reword that for you
The Eu will just plough on regardless with its project whist ignoring the devastation in its endless wake. The PROJECT is all important.
The EU exists for its members. It’s members come first. The Eu will just plough on regardless with its project whist ignoring the devastation in its endless wake. The PROJECT is all important.
We choose to leave. Why on earth should they look after us ? They will compete with us with more people resources capacity and productivity. That’s why the average European thinks we are mad.
BigMon said:
I'd love to meet these Europeans who think Brexit is a 'great idea'.
I play an online game and am in a clan with people from all over Europe. Eire, Croatia, Germany, Belgium, Holland, etc, etc. There is regularly about 20-30 of us online at any one time.
Now, whenever Brexit has been brought up (not that much, but we have discussed it) not one of them has said 'well done'. Equally there isn't massive hostility, more a sort of bemusement as to why we are shooting ourselves in the foot (as they see it).
Only a small sample admittedly, but you'd think out of 20-30 Europeans at least one of them would be saying 'well done' if the Brexit view in Europe is as it is presented on here.
This is my experience as well. I play an online game and am in a clan with people from all over Europe. Eire, Croatia, Germany, Belgium, Holland, etc, etc. There is regularly about 20-30 of us online at any one time.
Now, whenever Brexit has been brought up (not that much, but we have discussed it) not one of them has said 'well done'. Equally there isn't massive hostility, more a sort of bemusement as to why we are shooting ourselves in the foot (as they see it).
Only a small sample admittedly, but you'd think out of 20-30 Europeans at least one of them would be saying 'well done' if the Brexit view in Europe is as it is presented on here.
Tuna said:
The only thing that appears to have been achieved over the last two years is that we turned a question of 'how much' we wanted to be in the EU - and the possibility of a negotiated deal somewhere on that spectrum - into a stark binary choice between remaining and leaving with no deal.
As political gambles go, systematically destroying any sort of compromise could either turn out to be an act of genius or madness. Genius being 'something we got away with'.
This basicallyAs political gambles go, systematically destroying any sort of compromise could either turn out to be an act of genius or madness. Genius being 'something we got away with'.
But the question then becomes who was it who destroyed the possibility of compromise. Was it just the EU with their "backstop" and (no doubt) instructing to Norway that the UK couldn't be allowed to follow the "Norway" option either. Or was it our own politicians deliberately dragging out the negotiations to the point where the only choice was an unacceptable deal, or no deal, a few months before "no deal" was due to happen.
Most of the past year has been pantomime and the story off what really happened will be a fascinating one, if it ever fully emerges in the years to come.
Coolbanana said:
but the fact is, the Project is doing just fine and has been for decades.
It is not a fact though is it........its just an anecdote from you that wouldn't stand up to any from of scrutiny from a sane person.Coolbanana said:
those who hate it can lump it, because they, like Brexit, will continuously be shown to be wrong over time and it will still be going nicely long after they have become plant fertilizer.
Those thoughtful pragmatic pasts last month were ghost written by someone else weren't they...….Nickgnome said:
crankedup said:
toppstuff said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
And where did Macron come from other than a last desperate attempt to stem the rise of Anti EU/Dissatisfaction with the Status Quo ?, not going well in France is it.
Just because you live in a Pro-Eu friends/work bubble does not make you correct.
And just because you live in an anti-EU Just because you live in a Pro-Eu friends/work bubble does not make you correct.
-raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.
I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. People don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.
Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.
Also it sounds like you advocate sucking on the EU teat is somehow life’s true path. Your discription is indicative of little plebs being led by the collar. Sod that, I prefer the alternative route of building my own path.
Surprised this had to be explained in all honesty.
JagLover said:
This basically
But the question then becomes who was it who destroyed the possibility of compromise. Was it just the EU with their "backstop" and (no doubt) instructing to Norway that the UK couldn't be allowed to follow the "Norway" option either. Or was it our own politicians deliberately dragging out the negotiations to the point where the only choice was an unacceptable deal, or no deal, a few months before "no deal" was due to happen.
Most of the past year has been pantomime and the story off what really happened will be a fascinating one, if it ever fully emerges in the years to come.
None of the above.But the question then becomes who was it who destroyed the possibility of compromise. Was it just the EU with their "backstop" and (no doubt) instructing to Norway that the UK couldn't be allowed to follow the "Norway" option either. Or was it our own politicians deliberately dragging out the negotiations to the point where the only choice was an unacceptable deal, or no deal, a few months before "no deal" was due to happen.
Most of the past year has been pantomime and the story off what really happened will be a fascinating one, if it ever fully emerges in the years to come.
It was all the Governments fault.
The A50 letter demanded special treatment for the NI/Ireland border, and then May rubbished the Canada style trade deal demanding something special.
Well, to her credit, May got something special but there are a lot of unpalatable conditions attaching to it.
toppstuff said:
The EU exists for its members. It’s members come first.
We choose to leave. Why on earth should they look after us ? They will compete with us with more people resources capacity and productivity. That’s why the average European thinks we are mad.
No it does not. Its "members" are its people not its rich metropolitan source/political dogma.We choose to leave. Why on earth should they look after us ? They will compete with us with more people resources capacity and productivity. That’s why the average European thinks we are mad.
I have never asked for their help, I have never had any help from them. I am happy to compete with them like we do with 90% of the world.
I will add that I am very happy to be great friends, act together, defend each other and generally be a good egg.
I do not wish to follow their political/social construct as I feel very deeply that the end goal of a Eu Federal State not a path the Uk should travel.
I wish them well and hope they have a happy future.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Nickgnome said:
ECJ to rule on Morning morning whether to uphold the AG's advice.
The parliamentary vote on Tuesday which most consider will be lost.
Dominic Grieve's amendment comes into play.
SI drafted and implemented to extend Article 50 (Definition of Leave Date) subject to agreement with Eu.
Parliament takes control.
Or
The government forced to adopt the Fasttrack procedure to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally. (Highly unlikely)
The UK is stuck down a cul de sac with no consensus to turn around.The parliamentary vote on Tuesday which most consider will be lost.
Dominic Grieve's amendment comes into play.
SI drafted and implemented to extend Article 50 (Definition of Leave Date) subject to agreement with Eu.
Parliament takes control.
Or
The government forced to adopt the Fasttrack procedure to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally. (Highly unlikely)
Parliament does not want this deal.
Parliament does not want no deal.
Parliament does not want to extend A50.
Parliament does not want to cancel A50.
Parliament does not want a GE.
Parliament does not want a second referendum.
The EU does not want a different deal.
Where is the solution?
RalphyM said:
I dropped out of this as it descended into remainer vs leaver abuse.
However, the Grieve amendment doesn't work like that. Under the amendment, Parliament can pass a motion certainly. However, this is not legally binding in any form (Grieve himself acknowledges that).
Statuatory Instruments can only be introduced by the Government as indeed can Bills. (Not strictly true backbenchers can also introduce Bills but they are reliant on the Government giving Parliamentary time to debate). SIs cannot alter primary legislation (Withdrawal Act).
If you go back a few pages, we discussed the various options for Parliament and how the mechanics limits quite severely what can be done.
I did read some of them and found it very informative. Thank youHowever, the Grieve amendment doesn't work like that. Under the amendment, Parliament can pass a motion certainly. However, this is not legally binding in any form (Grieve himself acknowledges that).
Statuatory Instruments can only be introduced by the Government as indeed can Bills. (Not strictly true backbenchers can also introduce Bills but they are reliant on the Government giving Parliamentary time to debate). SIs cannot alter primary legislation (Withdrawal Act).
If you go back a few pages, we discussed the various options for Parliament and how the mechanics limits quite severely what can be done.
Edited by RalphyM on Friday 7th December 11:22
Yes, some posters do get a bit heated on here from time to time.
The question is, would the Government defy the will of Parliament? I would think it highly unlikely.
I was under the impression that an SI could be used to alter the definition of (Exit Day) as stated in EU withdrawal Act. I accept the Government would need to raise the SI.
Can fast-tracking legislation be used if necessary? I believe there is precedent.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Nickgnome said:
ECJ to rule on Morning morning whether to uphold the AG's advice.
The parliamentary vote on Tuesday which most consider will be lost.
Dominic Grieve's amendment comes into play.
SI drafted and implemented to extend Article 50 (Definition of Leave Date) subject to agreement with Eu.
Parliament takes control.
Or
The government forced to adopt the Fasttrack procedure to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally. (Highly unlikely)
The UK is stuck down a cul de sac with no consensus to turn around.The parliamentary vote on Tuesday which most consider will be lost.
Dominic Grieve's amendment comes into play.
SI drafted and implemented to extend Article 50 (Definition of Leave Date) subject to agreement with Eu.
Parliament takes control.
Or
The government forced to adopt the Fasttrack procedure to withdraw Article 50 unilaterally. (Highly unlikely)
Parliament does not want this deal.
Parliament does not want no deal.
Parliament does not want to extend A50.
Parliament does not want to cancel A50.
Parliament does not want a GE.
Parliament does not want a second referendum.
The EU does not want a different deal.
Where is the solution?
We're out in March next year, irrespective of what the various camps in Parliament want.
That'll sharpen minds to actually get their act sorted, there is no alternative.
At the moment, that looks very strongly like an orderly no deal, with the attendant transition agreement to enable that to occur.
Then, amazingly (and just as per CETA being a "take it or leave it" offer after years of negotiation) the EU shifts to a more pragmatic and less political fudge/solution...
crankedup said:
Certainly I am retired, this does not preclude me or any other retiree from ambition in an alternative work and/or social life!! As an example I started a vintage car chauffeur drive business that encapsulated both my business ambition and enjoyment/hobby life.
Surprised this had to be explained in all honesty.
So surely being in or out of the EU will not impact your business one way or the other. It does not seem like you employ many people or trade with the EU or further afield.Surprised this had to be explained in all honesty.
toppstuff said:
And just because you live in an anti-EU
-raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.
I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. People don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.
Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.
my wife is on her way home from a business trip to holland, i am looking forward to hearing how her colleagues have regaled her with tales of just how great the eu is and how popular the project is with the dutch. she will probably be a remain voter by the time she gets back -raging-at-the- Eurocrats bubble doesn’t make you right either.
I spend maybe 50% of my time in the countries I’ve mentioned. People don’t regard the EU as perfect - they get frustrated too - but they generally get on with their lives and being Dutch / Irish / German and enjoying their customs and identities. They don’t feel the need to express some nationalistic force. They are pragmatic and just get on with life.
Truly most of them think we are a strange bunch worrying about all the wrong things. Inside the EU they feel safe and stable. They are free to do what they want, get care when sick and educated well. The rest is up to them- they don’t need to be on some independence crusade to an unknown destination like the Brits do.
Sway said:
Fortunately, two years ago Parliament saw this 'cul de sac' coming, and recognised the danger to political engagement within the UK - so it enacted primary legislation to prevent it becoming a political issue.
We're out in March next year, irrespective of what the various camps in Parliament want.
That'll sharpen minds to actually get their act sorted, there is no alternative.
At the moment, that looks very strongly like an orderly no deal, with the attendant transition agreement to enable that to occur.
Then, amazingly (and just as per CETA being a "take it or leave it" offer after years of negotiation) the EU shifts to a more pragmatic and less political fudge/solution...
You are wrong. Parliament has the ability to stop it if they so vote.We're out in March next year, irrespective of what the various camps in Parliament want.
That'll sharpen minds to actually get their act sorted, there is no alternative.
At the moment, that looks very strongly like an orderly no deal, with the attendant transition agreement to enable that to occur.
Then, amazingly (and just as per CETA being a "take it or leave it" offer after years of negotiation) the EU shifts to a more pragmatic and less political fudge/solution...
toppstuff said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
If the UK had not been the only western country in Europe to not capitulate to Nazi Germany most of the citizens of Europe would now be fully paid up members of the Nazi party, That or dead, or slaves in what once was their own country. Europe owes its freedom now, to what the UK did, and what it made possible in 1939-45. Strange how quickly some seem to forget that?
The UK spent hundreds of thousands of its citizens lives, and billions of pounds, in helping to free Europe from the Nazi`s, and now it seems they want to punish the UK for wanting to leave the political construct known as the EU. My Belgian relatives have stated a completely different view to the one you seem to think exists there, and wished their countries leaders had the nerve to get out of the construct. For too many years the UK has been buying the EU a nice Ferrari for Christmas, and getting an electric toothbrush in return. Citizens only want to do that for so long in the hope that the EU will do the right thing by the country which is its second greatest net contributor of funds, and biggest single market for `Its' goods and services, but after decades, it seems they will not, nor ever will.
Errr. No, no and, well, No. The UK spent hundreds of thousands of its citizens lives, and billions of pounds, in helping to free Europe from the Nazi`s, and now it seems they want to punish the UK for wanting to leave the political construct known as the EU. My Belgian relatives have stated a completely different view to the one you seem to think exists there, and wished their countries leaders had the nerve to get out of the construct. For too many years the UK has been buying the EU a nice Ferrari for Christmas, and getting an electric toothbrush in return. Citizens only want to do that for so long in the hope that the EU will do the right thing by the country which is its second greatest net contributor of funds, and biggest single market for `Its' goods and services, but after decades, it seems they will not, nor ever will.
The EU is genuinely sad and baffled why we are leaving. They DO respect the sacrifices made to liberate them. If you have ever been to commemorations of D day for example you would see that.
The EU was created from the ruins of Europe to help prevent it happening again. They feel puzzled that the UK does not to be a part of that peaceful pact anymore. So you are seeing it upside down.
And they aren’t actively “punishing” us. They have to protect the project and the needs of the 27. That is more important than any single state.
The ruins of Europe was caused by Nazi Germany, Do you think the odd commemoration here and there is sufficient to pay back what the UK, let alone the US gave to help free Europe from the Nazis?
Perhaps the countries steering the EU should be graded in accordance of what they have put into the project, rather than what they have taken out, and that would put the UK in a very different position to the one it has held as an EU member. Why is Germany seen as the most influential member of the EU? Surely each countries vote should be either equal, or at commensurate to what they actually want to contribute to the project, only it currently clearly is not.
The peaceful pact Europe enjoys now is because of NATO, not the EU. Strangely a defence organization that the richest country in the EU (Germany), does not even pay its due subscription to help maintain.
How do you feel things would be in Europe now, if the UK and US had not given so much to free it from the Nazis? Some even maintain that Russia could have beaten the Nazis on their own, especially odd as Stalin signed a peace pact with Nazi Germany, and even supplied Nazi Germany with war materiel. Even if Russia could have beaten the Nazi`s on its own (which it could not) How do you think life in Europe would be under the USSR? You do know about the Berlin wall don't you?
Your own words have said it, A deal which might be good for the 27 countries of the EU is not good for the UK, and vice versa, proving that the UK being in the EU was never good for the UK, Good for the EU perhaps, but not for the UK. Which is why many in the UK realize this and want out of it.
wc98 said:
my wife is on her way home from a business trip to holland, i am looking forward to hearing how her colleagues have regaled her with tales of just how great the eu is and how popular the project is with the dutch. she will probably be a remain voter by the time she gets back
Knowing my luck as a rare remainer on PH, your wife probably worked on a project with fans of Gert Wilders ! toppstuff said:
My point is that the EU provides what you may call “‘macro big picture structure “ while their own Governments look after their daily lives. It works. They don’t feel the need to blow the whole thing to pieces and run away like we do.
Instead, they concentrate on their own lives and feel the EU isn’t holding them back from doing what the heck want to do - if anything free movement increases their ability to do whatever they feel like. Ironically you could say that freedom of movement actively allows them to “ build their own path “ to do what they want wherever they want.
A good example is a Bulgarian woman I work with , living in Antwerp and with a house also in Spain where her mother often goes to enjoy the warmer weather. She went to university in Italy. I think you can call that “building your own path “.
Thing is, the UK used to be like this. Before 2016, membership of the EU barely made the top 10 most important things people considered when voting. NHGS, law and order, taxes etc etc were all far more important. By and large we all just got on with our lives and everything was fine. Instead, they concentrate on their own lives and feel the EU isn’t holding them back from doing what the heck want to do - if anything free movement increases their ability to do whatever they feel like. Ironically you could say that freedom of movement actively allows them to “ build their own path “ to do what they want wherever they want.
A good example is a Bulgarian woman I work with , living in Antwerp and with a house also in Spain where her mother often goes to enjoy the warmer weather. She went to university in Italy. I think you can call that “building your own path “.
EU membership only became an issue as people were "forced" to vote on it by Cameron. And then as we know it became a proxy for lots of other things people liked/disliked. If it had genuinely been a make or break issue prior to that, we wouldn't be where we are now as there would be far more pro-Leave MPs in parliament due to the natural course of politics. People simply didn't care enough about it to pressure their local party/vote for a eurosceptic in the first place. Tory MPs being a prime example - they're mostly Remainers but the voters that put them in power are mostly Leavers. Clearly the voters considered their other policy positions (tax and spending policies etc) much more important than their lack of Euroscepticism. Those that did not voted UKIP.
This incidentally makes it all the more bizarre to me how many of these Conservative voters suddenly went from:
--> being not massively fussed about the EU (i.e. broadly happy, or at least not too unhappy, with the status quo) and more concerned about money issues and Labour potentially shafting business/the economy
...to...
--> we must exit the EU even if it does make us poorer, business will find it harder and the economy will take a hit
Pan Pan Pan said:
So are you contending that if the UK had fallen to the Nazis in 1939-40, the US would have, or even could have launched a D-Day from the other side of the Atlantic? It was only The UK`s non capitulation in 39-40 that made Europe`s freedom from Nazi Germany even a possibility. let alone the fact it is now.
The ruins of Europe was caused by Nazi Germany, Do you think the odd commemoration here and there is sufficient to pay back what the UK, let alone the US gave to help free Europe from the Nazis?
Perhaps the countries steering the EU should be graded in accordance of what they have put into the project, rather than what they have taken out, and that would put the UK in a very different position to the one it has held as an EU member. Why is Germany seen as the most influential member of the EU? Surely each countries vote should be either equal, or at commensurate to what they actually want to contribute to the project, only it currently clearly is not.
The peaceful pact Europe enjoys now is because of NATO, not the EU. Strangely a defence organization that the richest country in the EU (Germany), does not even pay its due subscription to help maintain.
How do you feel things would be in Europe now, if the UK and US had not given so much to free it from the Nazis? Some even maintain that Russia could have beaten the Nazis on their own, especially odd as Stalin signed a peace pact with Nazi Germany, and even supplied Nazi Germany with war materiel. Even if Russia could have beaten the Nazi`s on its own (which it could not) How do you think life in Europe would be under the USSR? You do know about the Berlin wall don't you?
Your own words have said it, A deal which might be good for the 27 countries of the EU is not good for the UK, and vice versa, proving that the UK being in the EU was never good for the UK, Good for the EU perhaps, but not for the UK. Which is why many in the UK realize this and want out of it.
I truly do not need an education in WW2 history. I could probably beat you in the subject in a pub quiz. The ruins of Europe was caused by Nazi Germany, Do you think the odd commemoration here and there is sufficient to pay back what the UK, let alone the US gave to help free Europe from the Nazis?
Perhaps the countries steering the EU should be graded in accordance of what they have put into the project, rather than what they have taken out, and that would put the UK in a very different position to the one it has held as an EU member. Why is Germany seen as the most influential member of the EU? Surely each countries vote should be either equal, or at commensurate to what they actually want to contribute to the project, only it currently clearly is not.
The peaceful pact Europe enjoys now is because of NATO, not the EU. Strangely a defence organization that the richest country in the EU (Germany), does not even pay its due subscription to help maintain.
How do you feel things would be in Europe now, if the UK and US had not given so much to free it from the Nazis? Some even maintain that Russia could have beaten the Nazis on their own, especially odd as Stalin signed a peace pact with Nazi Germany, and even supplied Nazi Germany with war materiel. Even if Russia could have beaten the Nazi`s on its own (which it could not) How do you think life in Europe would be under the USSR? You do know about the Berlin wall don't you?
Your own words have said it, A deal which might be good for the 27 countries of the EU is not good for the UK, and vice versa, proving that the UK being in the EU was never good for the UK, Good for the EU perhaps, but not for the UK. Which is why many in the UK realize this and want out of it.
My views on the subject and how we could / should interact with the EU are the complete opposite of yours.
s1962a said:
Do those outside London understand that the square mile contributes 11% of total UK tax take? If you took the whole of London the figure would be much higher. Given that Brexit threatens UK financial services, this tax take will most likely decrease. What are we going to replace that with?
https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-...
This is useful;https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/business/economic-...
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explaine...
6.5% of UK GDP comes from Financial Services.
Of that, approximately 25% is through trade with the EU, so around 1.6%.
If we lose 20% of that as a result of a No Deal Brexit, (20% is quite alot, given most FIs have already got local regulation working around the EU) that would be 0.32% of GDP.
Of course, as you rightly point out, tax take is disproportionate to GDP, so the loss in tax take might be substantially more than the proportion that implies.
PurpleMoonlight said:
Sway said:
At the moment, that looks very strongly like an orderly no deal, with the attendant transition agreement to enable that to occur.
I've not seen anyone mention that before. Is the EU willing?and telling event if they didn't.
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