How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
paulrockliffe said:
The EU have been honest that they don't want us to stay in the backstop, but they can't explain why not in a way that convinces the British Public or our MPs.
The reason for that is that the EU does not want us in the backstop because May's deal commits us to a future relationship that builds on the provisions of the backstop. They don't want us in the backstop, they want us in something worse, the backstop + common fisheries and something on Gibraltar + whatever else is pilled on top.
The fundamental problem with May's deal, all the bleating about the backstop aside, is that it makes the Customs Union that has been ruled out time and time again inevitable. And with no exit clause.
100% that. I was unlucky enough to have to read all 585 pages of it, and I'm convinced you're right. The way the WA is worded means that we cannot possibly negotiate a looser arrangement than the backstop, so the only alternatives are either the backstop itself or an arrangement that ties the UK even more closely to the EU than the backstop. The reason for that is that the EU does not want us in the backstop because May's deal commits us to a future relationship that builds on the provisions of the backstop. They don't want us in the backstop, they want us in something worse, the backstop + common fisheries and something on Gibraltar + whatever else is pilled on top.
The fundamental problem with May's deal, all the bleating about the backstop aside, is that it makes the Customs Union that has been ruled out time and time again inevitable. And with no exit clause.
mx5nut said:
loafer123 said:
“Crashing out” is basically Y2K all over again.
Considerable effort and expense will be spent mitigating the worst of it and idiots will believe the work put in meant there was never a problem in the first place?Considerable effort and expense has been put in place mitigating the worst of it which means that leaving with no deal doesn’t cause any major problems.
HTH.
Pan Pan Pan said:
The UK is not crashing out of the EU, it is leaving the EU. What f*ckwit uses the term crashing out these days? A crash occurs when two things collide with each other, it is less likely when they are in fact moving apart, just as the UK is moving apart from the EU.
Sorry , and I will be careful not to use the other moronic saying "Cliff edge" ... 
powerstroke said:
This so called crashing out ?? is it like when the Berlin wall came down and east and west Germany reunited ..
we crash out of the EU and reunite with the rest of the world ???
Reunite with the rest of the world? What on earth are you on about? we crash out of the EU and reunite with the rest of the world ???
To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, there are going to be some very dissapointed people after the 29th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
Edited by chrispmartha on Saturday 12th January 23:17
Tuna said:
Indeed, I can absolutely agree with that - it was as much a job to deliver something Remain could be satisfied with, even if it wasn't actually Remaining. I hoped our government could at least offer a positive vision of "what comes next", which might have brought sides together.
As for what posters say - well, yes, some people talk s
t. I don't think you can ascribe anything said on here to majority opinion.
But the government could not deliver both Remain and Leave. The only thing they can implement with 100% of the country in mind is a deal that gives the country economic flexibility and control. Demanding a half-way house ends up with the sort of deal we're about to see attacked in parliament.
I agree 100%As for what posters say - well, yes, some people talk s
t. I don't think you can ascribe anything said on here to majority opinion.But the government could not deliver both Remain and Leave. The only thing they can implement with 100% of the country in mind is a deal that gives the country economic flexibility and control. Demanding a half-way house ends up with the sort of deal we're about to see attacked in parliament.
Personally I think the biggest mistake has been to try and do things too quickly. By trying to exit fully on a short timetable it has ended up in a situation where the government is simply running out of time which means we have a half and half deal.
If we want to exit fully to wto rules imo the best way is to take the so called flexcit route and withdraw steadily, disentangling ourselves in an orderly fashion over an extended period of time. Part of the issue with ‘no deal’ is not trading on wto rules in itself. It’s the transition between trading conditions on a very short timescale.
Now there are issues with flexcit (it would probably need to be implemented over several governments for a start!) but I think i would be much better than the current deal!
One of the frustrations here is that there is a lot of rhetoric from leave about leave being a forward looking decision, the EU economies falling and new economies rising etc, but then the demand seems to be to leave NOW. Not looking at a transition or playing any kind of long game.
I’m rambling now but final point-a lot is talked about the political consequences of ignoring the 17 million leave voters, but there are 16 million remain voters who can inflict nearly as much electoral damage as those who voted leave if they are ignored.
davepoth said:
100% that. I was unlucky enough to have to read all 585 pages of it, and I'm convinced you're right. The way the WA is worded means that we cannot possibly negotiate a looser arrangement than the backstop, so the only alternatives are either the backstop itself or an arrangement that ties the UK even more closely to the EU than the backstop.
This is a pretty serious allegation.Unfortunately it chimes in with the quotes going round of the 'whistle blower civil servant' who says:
“the Political Declaration replicates all the onerous ‘non-regression’ clauses of the backstop” as well as requiring “even more surrender of sovereignty” in numerous other areas including fishing, defence and agriculture.
It's hard to see where this is all going. If as claimed parliament is a majority remain house, why are they not backing this? (Obvious answer - it's a truly terrible deal) If it's voted down are we going to see piecemeal amendments attempting to appease the EU until they agree at the last minute? If so, I can't think of a worse way to negotiate - hand over your pocket money until the big boys leave you alone? What is May's 'Plan B' - surely she can't think her deal can possibly pass, so she must have something in mind following the vote - resign, extend A50, run down the clock and no deal? Who knows?
At some point the EU is likely to blink, but concessions from either side at this stage are only putting lipstick on the pig. Who's going to fall for that? (Obvious answer - all the people who've been claiming the sky is falling in for the last few years).
I cannot think of worse conditions to be committing to a binding deal right now.
chrispmartha said:
Reunite with the rest of the world? What on earth are you on about?
To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, tgere are going to be some vety dissapointed people after the 28th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
If their lives hadn’t been made worse, quite inexorably, over the years we’ve been in the EU, they wouldn’t have voted to leave. To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, tgere are going to be some vety dissapointed people after the 28th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
Tuna said:
It's going to get worse before it gets better.
it can't get much worse than this......... you included me in the list below 
Kurt535, mx5nut or Roboraver would work as alternatives. Tuna said:
I can understand that some posters will feel like they're an embattled minority (after all there's only toppstuff, MrGnome, Helocopter, Ghibli, frisbee, Mr T, Trolleys Thank You, chrispmartha, Crackie, bhstewie, Elysium, Derek Smith, Piha, saaby93 and a bunch of other regular posters arguing against Leave) - but assuming everyone on here is just frothing with excitement at the prospect of Leaving ends in a lot of pointless arguments.
/\ This 
A few days ago toppstuff said there was a Leave consensus in here 
and soon afterwards I think he suggested that 90% were in favour of leaving. I've no idea whether he, and others, believe their own rhetoric or whether they're just being disingenuous. As you say, it contributes to pointless arguments.Edited by Crackie on Sunday 13th January 09:20
cookie118 said:
Tuna said:
Indeed, I can absolutely agree with that - it was as much a job to deliver something Remain could be satisfied with, even if it wasn't actually Remaining. I hoped our government could at least offer a positive vision of "what comes next", which might have brought sides together.
As for what posters say - well, yes, some people talk st. I don't think you can ascribe anything said on here to majority opinion.
But the government could not deliver both Remain and Leave. The only thing they can implement with 100% of the country in mind is a deal that gives the country economic flexibility and control. Demanding a half-way house ends up with the sort of deal we're about to see attacked in parliament.
I agree 100%As for what posters say - well, yes, some people talk s
t. I don't think you can ascribe anything said on here to majority opinion.But the government could not deliver both Remain and Leave. The only thing they can implement with 100% of the country in mind is a deal that gives the country economic flexibility and control. Demanding a half-way house ends up with the sort of deal we're about to see attacked in parliament.
Personally I think the biggest mistake has been to try and do things too quickly. By trying to exit fully on a short timetable it has ended up in a situation where the government is simply running out of time which means we have a half and half deal.
If we want to exit fully to wto rules imo the best way is to take the so called flexcit route and withdraw steadily, disentangling ourselves in an orderly fashion over an extended period of time. Part of the issue with ‘no deal’ is not trading on wto rules in itself. It’s the transition between trading conditions on a very short timescale.
Now there are issues with flexcit (it would probably need to be implemented over several governments for a start!) but I think i would be much better than the current deal!
One of the frustrations here is that there is a lot of rhetoric from leave about leave being a forward looking decision, the EU economies falling and new economies rising etc, but then the demand seems to be to leave NOW. Not looking at a transition or playing any kind of long game.
I’m rambling now but final point-a lot is talked about the political consequences of ignoring the 17 million leave voters, but there are 16 million remain voters who can inflict nearly as much electoral damage as those who voted leave if they are ignored.
One mistake May has made imo is pinning so much on stopping Freedom of Movement. Just looking at the numbers should have told her the realities of the numbers there, as a previous Home Sec nobody should have a better grasp of the numbers and issues across the piece than her. Seemingly not.
REALIST123 said:
chrispmartha said:
Reunite with the rest of the world? What on earth are you on about?
To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, tgere are going to be some vety dissapointed people after the 28th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
If their lives hadn’t been made worse, quite inexorably, over the years we’ve been in the EU, they wouldn’t have voted to leave. To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, tgere are going to be some vety dissapointed people after the 28th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
And how are ‘their’ lives going to be better after the 29th march?
chrispmartha said:
To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, there are going to be some very dissapointed people after the 29th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
They'll blame the people who warned them against it for the negative outcome of their own actions.It’s worth considering that we’re now in a rolling situation from here until the end of March thus creating a heightened sense of crisis which will build with every single day. The ultimate game of Texas Hold em.
But it is possible to break it down a little:
Consider the various positions where all actors are now in hardball territory.
The gov are still holding a middle line attempting to beguile simultaneously brexiteers+duppers to support a deal none of them will accept, while hoping labour will blink. Lots of ‘no brexit’ briefings. Apparently 200 odd votes off from a majority. I wonder about that: due to summary below.
The ERG+duppers have given up on any other options and are happy to let the clock tick down. Probably 90 odd (80 ERG + 10 DUP)
Remain tories prepared to bale on Brexit in event of current or nondeal: 20 in last vote.
That gives the gov around 200 potential votes. Still well shy of a majority by 125 votes.
Non Tory votes:
Core Labour are doubling down on a confidence vote hoping that enough tories scared of no deal will flip. The leadership aren’t bothered by no deal. Their eyes are on a bigger prize: a labour gov unfettered by EU rules. 225?
The remain non Corbyn wing are desperate to avoid no deal and are playing cross party remain comms. Possibly 25.
A few odds and sods labour brexiteers. No more than 5..
Plus other parties - 50 odd.
No one but no one knows how this plays out, which as a history and politics nut makes it hugely exciting, but I willing to bet that no matter what config you put on it you cannot get a motion, ANY motion, through Parliament without core conservative and core labour working together. I’ve been playing with the numbers above and it can’t work out given the irreconcilables.
There are just too many splinter groups.
Which then comes down to 2 issues while the no deal scenario looms larger.
Which of the above is going to the first to break, as the no deal is the default scenario. Is it the Tory core to accept an extension, and likely no Brexit, or labour core to accept May’s deal and Brexit and no general election.
My bet, sadly as a leaver, is that core labour has currently no real interest in prioritising Brexit, or propping up a Tory gov and that no confidence will be triggered, and in all likelihood accepted, there will be a last minute diplomacy option that cobbles together a request to postpone A50, a time of extension for a second ref after a new government is in situ and no exit.
The second will be that it will ultimately a horrendous betrayal of democracy. A majority referendum result overturned by a parliament determined to stay in. That will have catastrophic implications for democracy going forward. If Cummings was able to tap into 3 million unengaged in the EU poll, imagine how many more will be inclined to give up on ‘democracy’ and go ‘off grid’ if this is the result. And the danger of just shutting down an awkward policy decision might seem insignificant re Europe, but all it takes is a populist with a message of anti democratic governance, with instructions ignored, and we are in a whole world of hurt.
But it is possible to break it down a little:
Consider the various positions where all actors are now in hardball territory.
The gov are still holding a middle line attempting to beguile simultaneously brexiteers+duppers to support a deal none of them will accept, while hoping labour will blink. Lots of ‘no brexit’ briefings. Apparently 200 odd votes off from a majority. I wonder about that: due to summary below.
The ERG+duppers have given up on any other options and are happy to let the clock tick down. Probably 90 odd (80 ERG + 10 DUP)
Remain tories prepared to bale on Brexit in event of current or nondeal: 20 in last vote.
That gives the gov around 200 potential votes. Still well shy of a majority by 125 votes.
Non Tory votes:
Core Labour are doubling down on a confidence vote hoping that enough tories scared of no deal will flip. The leadership aren’t bothered by no deal. Their eyes are on a bigger prize: a labour gov unfettered by EU rules. 225?
The remain non Corbyn wing are desperate to avoid no deal and are playing cross party remain comms. Possibly 25.
A few odds and sods labour brexiteers. No more than 5..
Plus other parties - 50 odd.
No one but no one knows how this plays out, which as a history and politics nut makes it hugely exciting, but I willing to bet that no matter what config you put on it you cannot get a motion, ANY motion, through Parliament without core conservative and core labour working together. I’ve been playing with the numbers above and it can’t work out given the irreconcilables.
There are just too many splinter groups.
Which then comes down to 2 issues while the no deal scenario looms larger.
Which of the above is going to the first to break, as the no deal is the default scenario. Is it the Tory core to accept an extension, and likely no Brexit, or labour core to accept May’s deal and Brexit and no general election.
My bet, sadly as a leaver, is that core labour has currently no real interest in prioritising Brexit, or propping up a Tory gov and that no confidence will be triggered, and in all likelihood accepted, there will be a last minute diplomacy option that cobbles together a request to postpone A50, a time of extension for a second ref after a new government is in situ and no exit.
The second will be that it will ultimately a horrendous betrayal of democracy. A majority referendum result overturned by a parliament determined to stay in. That will have catastrophic implications for democracy going forward. If Cummings was able to tap into 3 million unengaged in the EU poll, imagine how many more will be inclined to give up on ‘democracy’ and go ‘off grid’ if this is the result. And the danger of just shutting down an awkward policy decision might seem insignificant re Europe, but all it takes is a populist with a message of anti democratic governance, with instructions ignored, and we are in a whole world of hurt.
Edited by Ridgemont on Sunday 13th January 00:40
loafer123 said:
The issue is that, without an end to the backstop, we have no negotiation power. They can hold us to ransom until we agree to their terms.
Could the UK not simply make payment of some/most/all of the leaving bill contingent on having left completely ? Or does the EU really not need the money that desperately ?cookie118 said:
I agree 100%
Personally I think the biggest mistake has been to try and do things too quickly. By trying to exit fully on a short timetable it has ended up in a situation where the government is simply running out of time which means we have a half and half deal.
If we want to exit fully to wto rules imo the best way is to take the so called flexcit route and withdraw steadily, disentangling ourselves in an orderly fashion over an extended period of time. Part of the issue with ‘no deal’ is not trading on wto rules in itself. It’s the transition between trading conditions on a very short timescale.
Now there are issues with flexcit (it would probably need to be implemented over several governments for a start!) but I think i would be much better than the current deal!
One of the frustrations here is that there is a lot of rhetoric from leave about leave being a forward looking decision, the EU economies falling and new economies rising etc, but then the demand seems to be to leave NOW. Not looking at a transition or playing any kind of long game.
I’m rambling now but final point-a lot is talked about the political consequences of ignoring the 17 million leave voters, but there are 16 million remain voters who can inflict nearly as much electoral damage as those who voted leave if they are ignored.
Agree 100%.Personally I think the biggest mistake has been to try and do things too quickly. By trying to exit fully on a short timetable it has ended up in a situation where the government is simply running out of time which means we have a half and half deal.
If we want to exit fully to wto rules imo the best way is to take the so called flexcit route and withdraw steadily, disentangling ourselves in an orderly fashion over an extended period of time. Part of the issue with ‘no deal’ is not trading on wto rules in itself. It’s the transition between trading conditions on a very short timescale.
Now there are issues with flexcit (it would probably need to be implemented over several governments for a start!) but I think i would be much better than the current deal!
One of the frustrations here is that there is a lot of rhetoric from leave about leave being a forward looking decision, the EU economies falling and new economies rising etc, but then the demand seems to be to leave NOW. Not looking at a transition or playing any kind of long game.
I’m rambling now but final point-a lot is talked about the political consequences of ignoring the 17 million leave voters, but there are 16 million remain voters who can inflict nearly as much electoral damage as those who voted leave if they are ignored.
To flexit was never ideal but it worked.
Cake was never an option.
mx5nut said:
chrispmartha said:
To me this sums up the ridiculous nature of brexit, it seems quite a few people have some kind of victim mentality with the EU being the bad guy, there are going to be some very dissapointed people after the 29th March when their lives suddenly don’t become better.
They'll blame the people who warned them against it for the negative outcome of their own actions.I personally don’t agree with the federal dream of the EU parliament going forward, with more and more power leaving state governments, financial and legal, into the hands of Brussels. That is my view, so I think it’s best to leave and actually have a vote that counts. As whatever anyone says, even when in the EU as we are now the UK has little or no real influence. All this ‘we can reform from within’ talk is just nonsense.
It’s nothing to do with the people of the EU, or any far right flag waving, I have lived and worked in Europe and have friends and family there. It’s purely the political path of Brussels I disagree with. Remainers seem unconcerned about closer union and ultimately no financial and legal control. This will be set to suit only the eurozone/schengen members. We will just pay.
Luckily remain lost, but sadly I fear remain will ‘win’ in the end because of our remainer House of Parliament. If it ends that way the next GE here is going to be interesting to say the least!
Well, maybe it won’t, because no one will bother voting. Awesome.
Edited by ITP on Sunday 13th January 01:12
t1grm said:
Tony427 said:
That entirely depends on whether you think that the decimation of existing political parties and the rise of a far right alternative garnering votes from disenfranchised Labour and Conservative voters is a good or a bad thing.
If the political classes really want to see how much damage can be done to the UK political lanscape by over 17 million voters, who feel betrayed by those who they entrusted with their decision, they are going about it in exactly the correct way.
Every constituency that voted to leave that has a sitting MP that refuses to carry out that decision will be in play in the next election. These MP's seats will be targetted remorslessly as they will be easy prey. The only MP's that can feel safe will be those in Remain voting seats and perhaps Lib Dems.
Labour, thanks to fence sitting and a disgraceful attitude of political opportunism when the country really needed grown up concensus politics, will be hardest hit. And thats before Momentum start imposing their loony left candidates on the population.
Peak Corbyn has passed, the young have seen through the sham, and every day that goes by simply exposes the intellectual poverty of the Labour front bench.
We, the general public, had better buckle up for a bumpy ride and a sequence of short lasting coalition governments.
It will be like Italy but without the sunshine.
Cheers,
Tony
Good post. I'm going to quote this lock stock on a Facebook thread I'm having an argument on if you don't mind. If the political classes really want to see how much damage can be done to the UK political lanscape by over 17 million voters, who feel betrayed by those who they entrusted with their decision, they are going about it in exactly the correct way.
Every constituency that voted to leave that has a sitting MP that refuses to carry out that decision will be in play in the next election. These MP's seats will be targetted remorslessly as they will be easy prey. The only MP's that can feel safe will be those in Remain voting seats and perhaps Lib Dems.
Labour, thanks to fence sitting and a disgraceful attitude of political opportunism when the country really needed grown up concensus politics, will be hardest hit. And thats before Momentum start imposing their loony left candidates on the population.
Peak Corbyn has passed, the young have seen through the sham, and every day that goes by simply exposes the intellectual poverty of the Labour front bench.
We, the general public, had better buckle up for a bumpy ride and a sequence of short lasting coalition governments.
It will be like Italy but without the sunshine.
Cheers,
Tony
Edited by Tony427 on Sunday 13th January 01:17
ITP said:
Luckily remain lost, but sadly I fear remain will ‘win’ in the end because of our remainer House of Parliament.
You are aware that those MPs are elected, right? If we have a Remainer HOP, it was the will of the people and you should respect democracy.Of all the Leaver inconsistencies, the annoyance that our parliament might exercise the sovereignty they insisted they should have is probably the best.
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