How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[gooner1]

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

What's stopping either side trading with each other after we've left?

[gooner1]

braddo said:

YOU DON'T SAY!

"The negative effect of distance on trade has been evident for decades"

"The standard analysis for goods is that each doubling of distance with a trading partner halves trade between them."

"The International Monetary Fund found that the effect of distances on services trade was even higher than for goods."

Full article from the FT is here if the cheapskate Brexit experts on this thread can be bothered.
https://www.ft.com/content/964afa06-8f0b-11e6-8df8...

You get your FT free at work don't you.

[Tuna]

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

You do understand that trade happens despite governments, not because of them?

Leaving the single market does not stop trade dead - and that's even in the extraordinarily unlikely event that a WTO Brexit is not followed by a trade agreement.

As to why leave it - well if you haven't grasped that a large number of people did not have economic convenience with the EU as their number one priority, there's no hope for you. I can't speak for them, but it appears your concerns are not shared across the country.

[The Dangerous Elk]

they STILL don't get it do they

[davepoth]

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

A much wiser man than me once said "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

There will be losers as well as winners, but the decision wasn't all about the economy.

[Elysium]

Tuna said:

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

You do understand that trade happens despite governments, not because of them?

Leaving the single market does not stop trade dead - and that's even in the extraordinarily unlikely event that a WTO Brexit is not followed by a trade agreement.

As to why leave it - well if you haven't grasped that a large number of people did not have economic convenience with the EU as their number one priority, there's no hope for you. I can't speak for them, but it appears your concerns are not shared across the country.

I did not say it would stop trade.

My question was clear - if you think the single market works because it makes cross border trade simple, why sacrifice that simplicity to pursue unknown opportunities that you know will be more complex.

I know there are other political reasons why people voted leave. My question does not deny that.

[davepoth]

braddo said:

davepoth said:

Are you sure about that?

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/cet...

Chapters 9 and 13 are the relevant ones.

Do they cover the services the UK provides to the EU today? Please do make it easy for everyone who is reading this thread to understand. Do chapters 9 and 13 cover our £28 billion services trade surplus with the EU?

Because as far as I know, a Canadian bank can only serve its EU clients properly from a location inside the EU. But do please clarify.

I can only deal with the points you make.

braddo said:

A little reminder:

A Canada deal doesn't include services.

That was your point, and it was untrue.

It's true that CETA does not completely and fully replicate the EU's financial services framework. However, an EU-UK trade deal with similar provisions on services to CETA would cover at least some of the UK's trade surplus in services with the EU. How much I do not know.

[dasigty]

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

How about you carry that train of thought to its logical conclusion ?.

Its just as easy for the EU, who just happen to sell approx twice as much to us, they do not have another market to sell into the goods we buy, so why ps off a BIG customer who can go elsewhere leaving you holding nothing but your d*ck.

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

[Vanden Saab]

braddo said:

Do they cover the services the UK provides to the EU today? Please do make it easy for everyone who is reading this thread to understand. Do chapters 9 and 13 cover our £28 billion services trade surplus with the EU?

Because as far as I know, a Canadian bank can only serve its EU clients properly from a location inside the EU. But do please clarify.

You might want to read this... http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-6851_en...

Then you will know...

[The Dangerous Elk]

dasigty said:

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

.............and how they will vote if forced again.

[chrispmartha]

dasigty said:

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes ya ou think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

How about you carry that train of thought to its logical conclusion ?.

Its just as easy for the EU, who just happen to sell approx twice as much to us, they do not have another market to sell into the goods we buy, so why ps off a BIG customer who can go elsewhere leaving you holding nothing but your d*ck.

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

What are you planning on not buying to hurt the EU?
I would suggest you arr in the minority that have that much hatred towards the EU that it will have an effect in their buying habbits,

Aldi and Lidl seem to be the upcoming supermarkets in this Country, despite your supposed anti European stance.

[dasigty]

chrispmartha said:

What are you planning on not buying to hurt the EU?
I would suggest you arr in the minority that have that much hatred towards the EU that it will have an effect in their buying habbits,

Aldi and Lidl seem to be the upcoming supermarkets in this Country, despite your supposed anti European stance.

Perhaps you should go back and READ what is being said rather than trying to put in an interpretation that is not there.

I am in the majority and will hate the EU as much as I like thank you very much.

[chrispmartha]

dasigty said:

chrispmartha said:

What are you planning on not buying to hurt the EU?
I would suggest you arr in the minority that have that much hatred towards the EU that it will have an effect in their buying habbits,

Aldi and Lidl seem to be the upcoming supermarkets in this Country, despite your supposed anti European stance.

Perhaps you should go back and READ what is being said rather than trying to put in an interpretation that is not there.

I am in the majority and will hate the EU as much as I like thank you very much.

What European stuff do you think people are going to stop buying because of their ‘hatred’ to the EU?

[dasigty]

chrispmartha said:

What European stuff do you think people are going to stop buying because of their ‘hatred’ to the EU?

If I was a car dealer I would be looking at franchises for Lexus, Jaguar, Toyota, Range rover, If I was you I would invest in a dictionary, because you clearly have difficulty understanding that Anti-EU sentiment and Hatred to the EU are not the same thing.

[anonymous-user]

chrispmartha said:

What European stuff do you think people are going to stop buying because of their ‘hatred’ to the EU?

Irish beef is currently off my shopping list.

[B'stard Child]

Vaud said:

mattmurdock said:

Sway said:

Thank you.

I mentioned Merkel and Macron in response to Ghibli's assertion we had nothing to offer the EU. Their decision to talk about re-opening negotiations shows they believe we have something to offer/something they want - and Macron's statements appear to show he at least is thinking about the "red line" of the backstop.

Whether that means the renewed negotiations will result in something favourable to us is completely indeterminable at the moment, hence why I've repeatedly said I'm not ascribing anything either positive or negative to it yet. The fact they seem to want to reopen something that previously it would be impossible to discuss seems to show it could be positive.

That's the only thing I've said today that's been "playing devil's advocate". In part, as I've been laid up in bed ill, and decided I'd respond to Ghibli's posts emulating his own posting style. I noted he got exasperated less than an hour in... Not my usual source of amusement, however he's had months of debating that way so figured a taste might be fun for him.

In all the debate we've had directly today, regarding customs options and potential outcomes (as well as the things the EU, RoI and UK have said they will or won't do irrespective of a deal) I've played an absolutely straight bat.

I enjoy a good and developed debate - hence why I've responded fully to every point you've raised with me. Whilst I understand you've had a bad day, please do read what I've actually put, before reiterating it as a counterargument!

Hope you've got a glass of your desired tipple, I'll bow out for today, enjoy your evening.

Thanks for your graciousness. Hope you feel better soon.

I don't mean any ill intent to any of the posters here, and I'm sure I'd enjoy a robust conversation over drinks with both remainers and leavers alike.

Sometimes I'm a bit forthright over topics where I believe ideology is trumping reason, or where people seem to not want to abide by their obligations. As I stated before, despite being of the remain persuasion I honestly want us to abide by the referendum result, and I honestly think the deal on the table is the only way we do that whilst not screwing our economy or ignoring the history of Ireland.

I look forward to continuing the debating tomorrow, enjoy your evening.

Thank you to both posters for showing such maturity in NP&E.

^ WHS with bells on

[anonymous-user]

chrispmartha said:

What are you planning on not buying to hurt the EU?
I would suggest you arr in the minority that have that much hatred towards the EU that it will have an effect in their buying habbits,

Aldi and Lidl seem to be the upcoming supermarkets in this Country, despite your supposed anti European stance.

A large quantity of food in aldi is uk produced. https://www.aldi.co.uk/about-aldi/corporate-respon...

[B'stard Child]

dasigty said:

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

It's influenced all my purchases since 2016 although I did buy a Skoda last week and that did go against the grain - I just couldn't force myself to by a Kia or Hyundai

[chrispmartha]

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

What are you planning on not buying to hurt the EU?
I would suggest you arr in the minority that have that much hatred towards the EU that it will have an effect in their buying habbits,

Aldi and Lidl seem to be the upcoming supermarkets in this Country, despite your supposed anti European stance.

A large quantity of food in aldi is uk produced. https://www.aldi.co.uk/about-aldi/corporate-respon...

Good, a great example of a European company adding value to the british industry and the british consumer, will that and should that changed because of brexit? No, that’s my point, and if it does that’s pretty sad!

[anonymous-user]

chrispmartha said:

Good, a great example of a European company adding value to the british industry and the british consumer, will that and should that change? No, that’s my point.

Me thinks you dont get it at all.