How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[chrispmartha]

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Good, a great example of a European company adding value to the british industry and the british consumer, will that and should that change? No, that’s my point.

Me thinks you dont get it at all.

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

[anonymous-user]

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

[Crackie]

Ghibli said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How would that be democratic?

You are asking only the people who voted leave to vote again.

Which questions would you have Ghibli?

[alabbasi]

Are people still wondering how this negotiation will go?

[bobbo89]

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

I'm a pretty staunch Brexiteer but I do tend to agree with Crispy on this one and I really don't think it'll affect much when it comes to the purchasing decisions of the masses. People will continue to buy EU manufactured cars in huge numbers so long as that's what the masses want.

Also, let's be fair, the majority of people don't give a toss about the country of origin of a product and simply buy based on brand/label and cost.

[JagLover]

braddo said:

A little reminder:

A Canada deal doesn't include services. The UK's economy is 80% services.

Anyone worried about the UK's trade deficits? Well, something is helping to reduce them but which is fundamentally
threatened by Brexit:

"A surplus of £28 billion on trade in services"

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBr...

What might happen to that surplus if there is no deal?

More than 2.5 years after the Brexit referendum and this thread still likes to ignore facts. Heaven forbid that facts might be the product of.... .... experts....

May's withdrawal agreement, as it stands, does nothing to protect services exports to the EU either and, by making FTA impossible with the rest of the world, means we cannot expand these exports to the ROTW as much as we could have done.

[JagLover]

Murph7355 said:

A little reminder - people who have been touting the idea have been saying "Canada+".

I imagine they have ideas on the '+' bit of that which may include a wider deal on services

and a united country would have likely been able to negotiate such a deal. As it is, if we are to leave now, the exit route will likely need to be suboptimal in economic terms and, if agreed with the EU, skewed in their favour.

[JagLover]

Apparently they've threatened Bercow with not getting a peerage after he steps down.

[anonymous-user]

Crackie said:

Ghibli said:

anonymous said:

[redacted]

How would that be democratic?

You are asking only the people who voted leave to vote again.

Which questions would you have Ghibli?

I have already answered that question.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Ghibli said:

I have already answered that question.

Remind us?

[anonymous-user]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Remind us?

Now that Mays deal has been rejected it's easier to work out.

[frisbee]

dasigty said:

Elysium said:

You begin by confirming that the single market works. There is a lot of trade with the EU because it is easy.

So why leave it? What makes you think the unknown is better than something that demonstrably works for us?

How about you carry that train of thought to its logical conclusion ?.

Its just as easy for the EU, who just happen to sell approx twice as much to us, they do not have another market to sell into the goods we buy, so why ps off a BIG customer who can go elsewhere leaving you holding nothing but your d*ck.

The EU has badly judged the situation by thinking the British public are the same spineless breed as many of our bought and paid for politicians, there is a fast growing anti EU sentiment in this country that will effect what people buy in the future.

How about you do some basic maths?

There are 27 countries. They'll each suffer a little bit but nowhere near as much as the UK. They'll each see massive opportunities to step in and replace the UK. Why do you think they all agreed to the withdrawal agreement in half an hour?

The rest of the world won't magically open up for the UK if we leave, however the UK will split open like a rotten corpse for EU countries to rip into.

Great job Brexiters!

[PurpleMoonlight]

Ghibli said:

Now that Mays deal has been rejected it's easier to work out.

Again, remind us?

[anonymous-user]

Ghibli said:

Benbay001 said:

Maybe you would be so good as to type it again.

Now we have had the vote we are left with no deal.

Options no deal or remain.

The result is implemented the following day. The people have the final say now they know what they are voting for.

Perhaps if someone can take a note of the page number for the next person who asks.

I make it page 159

[PurpleMoonlight]

Ghibli said:

Now we have had the vote we are left with no deal.

Options no deal or remain.

The result is implemented the following day. The people have the final say now they know what they are voting for.

Ta.

Seems fair enough to me.

I doubt the next day would be possible though as it would likely require legislation.

[anonymous-user]

SeeFive said:

Roman Rhodes said:

SeeFive said:

Roman Rhodes said:

So you believe the ball is in the EU's court?

Yes. They closed negotiations. All we should do is inform them that their deal has not been accepted.

Other than something that has already been accepted or rejected by the UK what do you expect their proposal to be?

The thread has moved on, but I will answer this again.

I am not expecting a proposal from them. Nor should they be from us.

What I would expect is that we tell them formally that the negotiated deal has been rejected by the uk parliament. If we are aware of the reasons why, we can advise on them. We also tell them that the default position, given that they said no further negotiation was possible is currently a no deal unruly exit.

They then can do what they want. But before we do anything if they ask us to open up with talks, we need to understand their driver for the sudden change in their no further negotiation position, I suspect it would be because they fear and unruly exit as much as some Brits do, but that should be confirmed before we go forward and remembered throughout negotiations.

Do you take them telling the press that we need to tell them what we want as re-opening negotiations? I don’t. Negotiations should be opened directly between the involved parties, not some media circus.

Your interpretation of what has happened seems to have left you mighty confused - probably the reason you spent pages arguing against Ghibli only to finalise admit he is correct. The ball isn’t in the EU court. It isn’t the EU deal it is THE deal that the U.K. negotiators agreed to. The fact that Parliament has rejected it means the ball is firmly in our court. I take the EU saying ‘tell us what you want’ to mean precisely that. Brinkmanship isn’t negotiation despite what some middle-management self-help book tells you. The EU can simply sit and wait for the U.K. to get its act together (or not). The ball is with us.

Oh, and : “driver for the sudden change”

[JNW1]

crankedup said:

JNW1 said:

Rovinghawk said:

chrispmartha said:

Rovinghawk said:

Trade. Trade is what enables us all to prosper.

True, Maybe we should have an agreement with the rest f the Eu members then, you know an agreement where there are no tariffs or non-tariff barriers to trade between members?

It could be called a Customs Union or something.

I could support that- how can we do it without any of the EU political bullst?

Norway Plus? Certainly not ideal for hardline Brexiters but if we want to respect the result of the 2016 referendum then to me something like this is looking more and more like the only show in town....

http://betterbrexit.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019...

Thanks for link, one of the first notes that I read was that this group state that a majority of people of the U.K. wanted and supported a European Market. That’s a lie so I haven’t bothered to read anymore. A lie on page one does not auger well for me to support this idea/group.

Which bit do you think is a lie? In the introduction the gist of their argument is most in the UK supported the initial idea of a Common Market but became anti-EU when all the political bits started to get added. Obviously no two people think exactly the same but as a Leave voter that would pretty much sum-up my feelings on the EU and hence something which preserves frictionless trade whilst taking us away from the notion of an ever greater political union works for me.

The compromise with Norway Plus is you don't get rid of freedom of movement but again speaking personally that wasn't really one of my motives for voting Leave so that wouldn't bother me too much. It's also often forgotten that in terms of Freedom of Movement our own UK government helped to create the perceived problem by failing to apply restrictions which it was always within their remit to apply; to that extent the EU gets blamed for something (mass immigration from Eastern Europe) which wasn't entirely their fault!

In terms of the wider debate, Theresa May's deal has been rejected overwhelmingly and it appears the only thing which pretty much unites the House of Commons is a desire to reject no-deal (so rightly or wrongly that option is effectively off the table). Therefore, our practical alternatives are to either find an agreement which broadly satisfies and respects the result of the 2016 referendum or forget Brexit altogether and remain in the EU. As someone who voted Leave I obviously favour the former and the only type of deal I can now see getting a consensus in Parliament is something like Norway Plus; if there are other realistic alternatives I'd be happy to consider them but I'm not seeing many (any?) being suggested at the moment....

[chrispmartha]

jsf said:

chrispmartha said:

Don’t get what? Enlighten me?

The poster above said that spending habits would change because of anti EU sentiment, im just questioning that as I think in reality it won’t

Mine already have.

The most likely fallout will be on major purchase decisions. German car sales would plummet.

They won’t plummit at all, you really are being a bit hyperbolic about how much people are anti EU to the degree that they will stop buying a VW Golf if that’s the car they want, don’t judge everyone by your level of hatred.

Maybe sales of Minis with Union Flag rear lights will go up eh? You know people buying british and all that ;-)

Edited by chrispmartha on Friday 18th January 08:09

[Helicopter123]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Ghibli said:

Now we have had the vote we are left with no deal.

Options no deal or remain.

The result is implemented the following day. The people have the final say now they know what they are voting for.

Ta.

Seems fair enough to me.

I doubt the next day would be possible though as it would likely require legislation.

You could make this one binding with exit within a defined timeframe. This should be much easier and at least leave voters would know what they are voting for this time.

[Dr Jekyll]

JNW1 said:

Theresa May's deal has been rejected overwhelmingly and it appears the only thing which pretty much unites the House of Commons is a desire to reject no-deal (so rightly or wrongly that option is effectively off the table). Therefore, our practical alternatives are to either find an agreement which broadly satisfies and respects the result of the 2016 referendum or forget Brexit altogether and remain in the EU. As someone who voted Leave I obviously favour the former and the only type of deal I can now see getting a consensus in Parliament is something like Norway Plus; if there are other realistic alternatives I'd be happy to consider them but I'm not seeing many (any?) being suggested at the moment....

If no deal is off the table, if we are committed to accepting any deal no matter how bad, the EU will be as bad as they can make it. We've already seen this once.