How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[ben5575]

don'tbesilly said:

bhstewie said:

Anyone watching Marr?

I do find Kier Starmer sounds very sensible and reasoned.

Makes you think a little about what would happen if you put aside the red and blue rosettes.

If you voted Remain in 2016 & now think thwarting or even stopping Brexit is the way forward I'd agree with you.
It's a shame Starmer wouldn't commit to just what Labours manifesto would support at any election, he wouldn't commit to a similar one as 2017, nor did he have the courage to say it would support remaining in the EU, which based on what he was saying throughout the interview it would have to do.

What did you think of Fox?
Did you think the portrayal many give on here of Fox and where future trade deals currently lie is either balanced or true, if Fox was as believable as you think Starmer was?

I'm not sure it was a lack of courage on Starmer's behalf, rather a reflection on the situation everybody finds themselves in today, Sunday 20th Janaury 2019.

Today isn't a day for black and white answers (despite Marr's ham fisted attempts to garner them). The message from all sides was one of compromise. It may not be on the same points, but there has been a very definite shift in tone. For the first time in a long time, there actually seemed to be adults in the room, having adult conversations. With the exception of Raab that is, who appears to have totally missed this shift and is in the middle of making a Boris-esque error in judgment of where to position himself.

As was said on the show, hard brexiteers have woken up to the fact it ain't happening (see JRM article for example) and likewise remainers are realising that remaining ain't an option either. Ref2 remains as an outside chance as a fallback (Backstop?! ), but even Soubry gave the impression that she'd fall on her sword for the sake of a deal.

Ball now back in May's court or as is being reported, Parliament will take the decision off her hands. The irony of course being that she's actually won or at least she can claim that if she choses too. Her out for compromising her red lines is that whilst it may not be her original deal, it'll be a variation of it. More importantly it will be a deal and not hard brexit or remain.

[Sway]

Vaud said:

Tuna said:

Helicopter123 said:

We must all remain vigilant and resist any real or tacit threats of violence from so called 'yellow vest' types who seek to intimidate our elected representatives. That is one thing I'm sure we can all agree upon.

Also

Helicopter123 said:

One mans terrorist is another’s freedom fighter after all.

The words just come out of your mouth without the intervention of a single brain cell, don't they?

And with abuse like that, it is no surprise that NP&E is avoided by so many.

When someone has clearly contradicted themselves within 24 hours on a matter of principle, what exactly is it about the post you've quoted that is "abuse"?

[steve_k]

Tuna said:

Helicopter123 said:

We must all remain vigilant and resist any real or tacit threats of violence from so called 'yellow vest' types who seek to intimidate our elected representatives. That is one thing I'm sure we can all agree upon.

Also

Helicopter123 said:

One mans terrorist is another’s freedom fighter after all.

The words just come out of your mouth without the intervention of a single brain cell, don't they?

Classic

[plasticpig]

Tony427 said:

I think that most sensible SME's are prepared for any type of Brexit. Its incumbent on a business to plan for whatever is coming down the track, be it competitors, market changes, economic changes or as in this case political changes.

Soon as the refreendum was over I contacted my suppliers, 90% EU based, and made arrangements so that i would in no way be inconvenienced. Plans put into place for whatever outcome of the Leave negotiations, in plenty of time. Any good management would be doing the same. If ythe business is now claiming that it will be unable to cope it only has its management to blame.

My customers in turn have been informed about the Brexit planning and are happy with what we have put into place.

There has been no drama. I would like to bet that the vast majority of companies have done the same.

All talk of Armageddon is just that, talk. Project fear V2.1.

That is a very good approach. However that is not my experience in dealing with SME's. My company is involved in financial software/ERP solutions. We have had very few queries with regards to how to prepare for a no deal brexit. Now to be fair companies who already export outside of Europe need to do very little as they will just replicate what they do for the rest of the world to the EU countries they export to.

We have some clients who only export to the EU however so there are quite a few changes to the process flow of how they use the software. The number of approaches we have had about what this would entail from these companies is zero.

There are additional complications for some companies which I won't go into but basically it would entail either them committing a very large quantity of time manually making changes (weeks not days for some clients) or paying us to automate the changes for them.

So as a company we could make a quite a nice profit out of a no deal brexit. The issue is we will not develop software to automate the changes without being paid. The clients will not want to pay us to develop software that may never be needed. We need to know a minimum of six weeks before the 29th of March if a client want's an automated swap over (8 weeks would be nice).

I see it as highly unlikely that the brexit issue will be resolved either way in the next 4 weeks.

[FiF]

Sway said:

Vaud said:

Tuna said:

Helicopter123 said:

We must all remain vigilant and resist any real or tacit threats of violence from so called 'yellow vest' types who seek to intimidate our elected representatives. That is one thing I'm sure we can all agree upon.

Also

Helicopter123 said:

One mans terrorist is another’s freedom fighter after all.

The words just come out of your mouth without the intervention of a single brain cell, don't they?

And with abuse like that, it is no surprise that NP&E is avoided by so many.

When someone has clearly contradicted themselves within 24 hours on a matter of principle, what exactly is it about the post you've quoted that is "abuse"?

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

[wc98]

amusingduck said:

A friend of my missus was mugged a few months ago. Police were utterly useless, didn't bother attempting to apprehend the culprits despite a live "find my iPhone" feed. "Best I can do is to interview you tomorrow" was effectively the outcome.

Why should they receive preferential treatment with the services they've gutted?

Apply the same response to MP's, let's see how fking quickly that st gets sorted out. If we must have people suffering as a result of those cuts, who deserves it more than the people responsible for implementing them?

i tend to agree with you but given the situation around brexit ,mp's ending up in hospital or worse really isn't going to be conducive to bringing it to a conclusion or keeping a lid on potential further problems between the more extreme elements of both sides of the debate.

[Tony427]

frisbee said:

Tony427 said:

I think that most sensible SME's are prepared for any type of Brexit. Its incumbent on a business to plan for whatever is coming down the track, be it competitors, market changes, economic changes or as in this case political changes.

Soon as the refreendum was over I contacted my suppliers, 90% EU based, and made arrangements so that i would in no way be inconvenienced. Plans put into place for whatever outcome of the Leave negotiations, in plenty of time. Any good management would be doing the same. If ythe business is now claiming that it will be unable to cope it only has its management to blame.

My customers in turn have been informed about the Brexit planning and are happy with what we have put into place.

There has been no drama. I would like to bet that the vast majority of companies have done the same.

All talk of Armageddon is just that, talk. Project fear V2.1.

So your suppliers magically bypass all customs and typical forms of transportation such as ferries? That's impressive.

Project head in the sand V1.0.

Yes. I thought to myself just in case of ferry disruption I had better hold some stock in the UK. We normally simply ship from supplier to customer without soiling our hands with actual product. The Italian,the Belgian and the German companies that supply me all thought it a useful idea so they have put stock in my warehouse on consignment to make sure that there will be absolutely no risk to continued supply. Cost to me zero in stock holding. Some small additional cost to be incurred in reshipment. Currently standing at 0.4% of order value.

No, I actually made a "profit" because I had to make room for the stock so sold a load of old scrap jet washes we were hoarding, for the scrap value. A "good drink" was obtained. And the place is a lot tidier. Result. Of course I now think "Why do we keep so much crap?"

As regards the outrageous tariff barrier of 1.5%, yes 1.5% , our suppliers are paying it as they really do not want to lose my custom. I have suggested to them that they have a chat with their govt's to ensure free trade but I don't know how successful they have been. I have Polish and Russian companies also trying to woo me ( there is significant oversupply in the car care marketplace so there's always alternatives) so 1.5 % means buggar all in the scheme of things.

So here am I, stock in warehouse, tariffs paid( if required) and potential exchange rate movements covered.

I would be absolutely amazed if no one else has done this in the time available since June 2016. If they haven't they deserve to go under.

Its not rocket science ffs. I am a Sales and Marketing guy not a logistics guy. Proper Logistics guys must do this sort of stuff standing on their heads.

Cheers,

Tony

[anonymous-user]

Tony427 said:

Yes. I thought to myself just in case of ferry disruption I had better hold some stock in the UK. We normally simply ship from supplier to customer without soiling our hands with actual product. The Italian,the Belgian and the German companies that supply me all thought it a useful idea so they have put stock in my warehouse on consignment to make sure that there will be absolutely no risk to continued supply. Cost to me zero in stock holding. Some small additional cost to be incurred in reshipment. Currently standing at 0.4% of order value.

No, I actually made a "profit" because I had to make room for the stock so sold a load of old scrap jet washes we were hoarding, for the scrap value. A "good drink" was obtained. And the place is a lot tidier. Result. Of course I now think "Why do we keep so much crap?"

As regards the outrageous tariff barrier of 1.5%, yes 1.5% , our suppliers are paying it as they really do not want to lose my custom. I have suggested to them that they have a chat with their govt's to ensure free trade but I don't know how successful they have been. I have Polish and Russian companies also trying to woo me ( there is significant oversupply in the car care marketplace so there's always alternatives) so 1.5 % means buggar all in the scheme of things.

So here am I, stock in warehouse, tariffs paid( if required) and potential exchange rate movements covered.

I would be absolutely amazed if no one else has done this in the time available since June 2016. If they haven't they deserve to go under.

Its not rocket science ffs. I am a Sales and Marketing guy not a logistics guy. Proper Logistics guys must do this sort of stuff standing on their heads.

Cheers,

Tony

How would this work for a bigger concern. You had an area where you we storing junk and made space. Would other larger companies have warehouses sitting around empty ready to use as storage when they stockpile. Who would end up paying the additional cost if they had to rent extra space.

[JagLover]

ben5575 said:

I'm not sure it was a lack of courage on Starmer's behalf, rather a reflection on the situation everybody finds themselves in today, Sunday 20th Janaury 2019.

Today isn't a day for black and white answers (despite Marr's ham fisted attempts to garner them). The message from all sides was one of compromise. It may not be on the same points, but there has been a very definite shift in tone. For the first time in a long time, there actually seemed to be adults in the room, having adult conversations. With the exception of Raab that is, who appears to have totally missed this shift and is in the middle of making a Boris-esque error in judgment of where to position himself.

As was said on the show, hard brexiteers have woken up to the fact it ain't happening (see JRM article for example) and likewise remainers are realising that remaining ain't an option either. Ref2 remains as an outside chance as a fallback (Backstop?! ), but even Soubry gave the impression that she'd fall on her sword for the sake of a deal.

Ball now back in May's court or as is being reported, Parliament will take the decision off her hands. The irony of course being that she's actually won or at least she can claim that if she choses too. Her out for compromising her red lines is that whilst it may not be her original deal, it'll be a variation of it. More importantly it will be a deal and not hard brexit or remain.

Seems more process over substance to me. Just to take this one element

ben said:

With the exception of Raab that is, who appears to have totally missed this shift and is in the middle of making a Boris-esque error in judgment of where to position himself.

The backstop is either an acceptable future relationship or it is not. If it isn't, which a growing number of people believe, then those politicians who refuse to ever back it will not only be acting in accordance with the consciences they will also be well placed for the future.

You think it matters who ends up on top of a Conservative party that could easily be destroyed by these events. Do you think it is over if May's deal gets through?

Edited by JagLover on Sunday 20th January 16:43

[amusingduck]

Ghibli said:

How would this work for a bigger concern. You had an area where you we storing junk and made space. Would other larger companies have warehouses sitting around empty ready to use as storage when they stockpile. Who would end up paying the additional cost if they had to rent extra space.

Why would they need an empty warehouse? Are their current warehouses at 100% utilisation? That's not a brexit problem, that's a logistics problem. What happens when the french go on strike?

[Vaud]

FiF said:

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

Calling people out is fine. “Single brain cell” is uncalled for.

[frisbee]

steve_k said:

frisbee said:

Tony427 said:

I think that most sensible SME's are prepared for any type of Brexit. Its incumbent on a business to plan for whatever is coming down the track, be it competitors, market changes, economic changes or as in this case political changes.

Soon as the refreendum was over I contacted my suppliers, 90% EU based, and made arrangements so that i would in no way be inconvenienced. Plans put into place for whatever outcome of the Leave negotiations, in plenty of time. Any good management would be doing the same. If ythe business is now claiming that it will be unable to cope it only has its management to blame.

My customers in turn have been informed about the Brexit planning and are happy with what we have put into place.

There has been no drama. I would like to bet that the vast majority of companies have done the same.

All talk of Armageddon is just that, talk. Project fear V2.1.

So your suppliers magically bypass all customs and typical forms of transportation such as ferries? That's impressive.

Project head in the sand V1.0.

These customs and typical forms you talk of are they new forms or just the same forms the EU members and UK already use for trade with the rest of the world outside the EU protectionist bubble?

Project making up bks forms version1.0

These would be the ferries to rest of the world? Or the trans-Atlantic tunnel perhaps?

And good luck getting trucks out of France when they are all stuck in the UK waiting to clear French customs!

[pingu393]

Tony427 said:

So here am I, stock in warehouse, tariffs paid( if required) and potential exchange rate movements covered.

I would be absolutely amazed if no one else has done this in the time available since June 2016. If they haven't they deserve to go under.

Its not rocket science ffs. I am a Sales and Marketing guy not a logistics guy. Proper Logistics guys must do this sort of stuff standing on their heads.

This highlights what is wrong with Brexit. Politicians assume that businessmen as nonreactive as they are. They assume that businessmen would rather fight fog than JFDI.

[Robertj21a]

Vaud said:

FiF said:

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

Calling people out is fine. “Single brain cell” is uncalled for.

Even if accurate ?

[anonymous-user]

Robertj21a said:

Vaud said:

FiF said:

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

Calling people out is fine. “Single brain cell” is uncalled for.

Even if accurate ?

And how accurate would it be for someone to have a single brain cell.

[alfie2244]

Robertj21a said:

Even if accurate ?

To be fair to Giblets Tuna does have a habit of exaggerating sometimes.

[anonymous-user]

pingu393 said:

Tony427 said:

So here am I, stock in warehouse, tariffs paid( if required) and potential exchange rate movements covered.

I would be absolutely amazed if no one else has done this in the time available since June 2016. If they haven't they deserve to go under.

Its not rocket science ffs. I am a Sales and Marketing guy not a logistics guy. Proper Logistics guys must do this sort of stuff standing on their heads.

This highlights what is wrong with Brexit. Politicians assume that businessmen as nonreactive as they are. They assume that businessmen would rather fight fog than JFDI.

What it highlights is that people who say project fear is a lie made up by the Goverment are preparing for what they say is a lie.

[SeeFive]

frisbee said:

steve_k said:

frisbee said:

Tony427 said:

I think that most sensible SME's are prepared for any type of Brexit. Its incumbent on a business to plan for whatever is coming down the track, be it competitors, market changes, economic changes or as in this case political changes.

Soon as the refreendum was over I contacted my suppliers, 90% EU based, and made arrangements so that i would in no way be inconvenienced. Plans put into place for whatever outcome of the Leave negotiations, in plenty of time. Any good management would be doing the same. If ythe business is now claiming that it will be unable to cope it only has its management to blame.

My customers in turn have been informed about the Brexit planning and are happy with what we have put into place.

There has been no drama. I would like to bet that the vast majority of companies have done the same.

All talk of Armageddon is just that, talk. Project fear V2.1.

So your suppliers magically bypass all customs and typical forms of transportation such as ferries? That's impressive.

Project head in the sand V1.0.

These customs and typical forms you talk of are they new forms or just the same forms the EU members and UK already use for trade with the rest of the world outside the EU protectionist bubble?

Project making up bks forms version1.0

These would be the ferries to rest of the world? Or the trans-Atlantic tunnel perhaps?

And good luck getting trucks out of France when they are all stuck in the UK waiting to clear French customs!

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1069280/Brexit-news-no-deal-Theresa-May-port-delays-BBC-Today-Calais-Dover-EU

Project fear.

[FiF]

Ghibli said:

Robertj21a said:

Vaud said:

FiF said:

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

Calling people out is fine. “Single brain cell” is uncalled for.

Even if accurate ?

And how accurate would it be for someone to have a single brain cell.

Did he accuse the poster of only possessing a single brain cell. No he didn't. The accusation regarded the application of brain cells, essentially that there had been little or no thought involved.

Not abuse, not even close to abuse, not even a bit rude.

Sorry. Back on ignore.

[Troubleatmill]

Ghibli said:

Robertj21a said:

Vaud said:

FiF said:

Precisely, it's simply a case of, as some would say, calling an individual out over a clear inconsistency.

Calling people out is fine. “Single brain cell” is uncalled for.

Even if accurate ?

And how accurate would it be for someone to have a single brain cell.

Read exactly what was said.