How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
Ghibli said:
amusingduck said:
No answer then? 
I didn't think so.
No idea what your french militants diversion is about.
Perhaps you should read Seefive's post. I didn't think so.No idea what your french militants diversion is about.
Are you trying to say that his post is trolling? How does that meet your definition?
Ghibli said:
SeeFive said:
... and went of to say other stuff, which is what I chose to respond to.
The problem is that dedicated both sides of this discussion seem to feel they can take any example of someone doing something positive to be secure given their individual circumstances, and use that to back up some ethereal argument that they are having somewhere else against “the cause”.
Thank goodness for Tony that he is in a position to take control to secure his future when larger organisations take risks against their own rules and make massive fools of themselves as they create a massive mess of their project.
Ok. I will ask a straight question. The problem is that dedicated both sides of this discussion seem to feel they can take any example of someone doing something positive to be secure given their individual circumstances, and use that to back up some ethereal argument that they are having somewhere else against “the cause”.
Thank goodness for Tony that he is in a position to take control to secure his future when larger organisations take risks against their own rules and make massive fools of themselves as they create a massive mess of their project.
Why are businesses making provisions for Brexit if it is project fear?
Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
Tony427 said:
For the hard of thinking, I will try to put the thought processes of every sensible importer / business man into simple terms.
Think of it like insurance. Thanks to the Remainer types , as has been demonstrated amply on these pages, many people are panicing re Brexit. I am not one. However as a businessman I realise that I must respond to these concerns, which may well be fantasy but which are pressing on the thought processes of my customers.
By putting arrangements to ameliorate any concerns my customers may have, well in advance, I do two things.
One, I insure against the very worst even though I have no doubt that it will not happen as it costs veritable peanuts to do so. ( I have a Cobra parked in my garage that I insure even though its not on the road and the only real way its going to get written off in my garage is if a plane trying to land at Birmingham Airport pancakes onto my house. Same thought process)
Secondly when my customers, who are being wound up by Remainer piffle in the media, ask me if I am prepared I can say
" Why yes", and detail all the arangements I have in place.
Result is that I can sleep at night and my customers think I am totally in control. Which breeds confidence. Which hopefully will lead to more business in the future.
Hopefully, although I doubt it 'cos they are not daft, my competitors asked the same question will either say " Oh my god we havent' got a clue what do you think ? " or " it'll be alright on the day, nowt will happen" . Neither are what a customer wants to hear, although I think the latter will be closer to the truth.
As regards Y2K an IT mate of mine spent new Years Eve 2000 sitting in a portacabin on an airfield in the USA surounded by planes being paid nigh on £10k for the privilege.
Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
Cheers,
Tony.
Sounds like you know what you are doing. Measured risk at minimal cost. Nice one.Think of it like insurance. Thanks to the Remainer types , as has been demonstrated amply on these pages, many people are panicing re Brexit. I am not one. However as a businessman I realise that I must respond to these concerns, which may well be fantasy but which are pressing on the thought processes of my customers.
By putting arrangements to ameliorate any concerns my customers may have, well in advance, I do two things.
One, I insure against the very worst even though I have no doubt that it will not happen as it costs veritable peanuts to do so. ( I have a Cobra parked in my garage that I insure even though its not on the road and the only real way its going to get written off in my garage is if a plane trying to land at Birmingham Airport pancakes onto my house. Same thought process)
Secondly when my customers, who are being wound up by Remainer piffle in the media, ask me if I am prepared I can say
" Why yes", and detail all the arangements I have in place.
Result is that I can sleep at night and my customers think I am totally in control. Which breeds confidence. Which hopefully will lead to more business in the future.
Hopefully, although I doubt it 'cos they are not daft, my competitors asked the same question will either say " Oh my god we havent' got a clue what do you think ? " or " it'll be alright on the day, nowt will happen" . Neither are what a customer wants to hear, although I think the latter will be closer to the truth.
As regards Y2K an IT mate of mine spent new Years Eve 2000 sitting in a portacabin on an airfield in the USA surounded by planes being paid nigh on £10k for the privilege.
Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
Cheers,
Tony.
SeeFive said:
I have already explained. Personal risk profile. Business choice. Ability to do so governed by no other entity with an alternative motive for their project.
Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
The uncertainty isn't project fear and businesses are making provisions. We both seem to agree on that.Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
Tony427 said:
As regards Y2K an IT mate of mine spent new Years Eve 2000 sitting in a portacabin on an airfield in the USA surounded by planes being paid nigh on £10k for the privilege.
Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
I'm not surprised that he laughs. He was a year late Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
Tony427 said:
As regards Y2K an IT mate of mine spent new Years Eve 2000 sitting in a portacabin on an airfield in the USA surounded by planes being paid nigh on £10k for the privilege.
I earned £2K for sitting on my arse watching TV whilst everyone else i knew got ripped off getting into the pub for the night.The work was done on the 2 years leading up to that night, but you know how people like to panic, so £2K in my pocket for doing sweet FA was a nice bonus to put their minds at rest.
Ghibli said:
SeeFive said:
I have already explained. Personal risk profile. Business choice. Ability to do so governed by no other entity with an alternative motive for their project.
Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
The uncertainty isn't project fear and businesses are making provisions. We both seem to agree on that.Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
Assumption is the mother of all failures. Tony is not only wise not to assume, he is wise to connect that action to business advantage, despite his (as I read it) stated reticence to believe project fear in its entirety.
plasticpig said:
That is a very good approach. However that is not my experience in dealing with SME's. My company is involved in financial software/ERP solutions. We have had very few queries with regards to how to prepare for a no deal brexit. Now to be fair companies who already export outside of Europe need to do very little as they will just replicate what they do for the rest of the world to the EU countries they export to.
We have some clients who only export to the EU however so there are quite a few changes to the process flow of how they use the software. The number of approaches we have had about what this would entail from these companies is zero.
There are additional complications for some companies which I won't go into but basically it would entail either them committing a very large quantity of time manually making changes (weeks not days for some clients) or paying us to automate the changes for them.
So as a company we could make a quite a nice profit out of a no deal brexit. The issue is we will not develop software to automate the changes without being paid. The clients will not want to pay us to develop software that may never be needed. We need to know a minimum of six weeks before the 29th of March if a client want's an automated swap over (8 weeks would be nice).
I see it as highly unlikely that the brexit issue will be resolved either way in the next 4 weeks.
Have you been proactive and contacted your clients to offer the service?We have some clients who only export to the EU however so there are quite a few changes to the process flow of how they use the software. The number of approaches we have had about what this would entail from these companies is zero.
There are additional complications for some companies which I won't go into but basically it would entail either them committing a very large quantity of time manually making changes (weeks not days for some clients) or paying us to automate the changes for them.
So as a company we could make a quite a nice profit out of a no deal brexit. The issue is we will not develop software to automate the changes without being paid. The clients will not want to pay us to develop software that may never be needed. We need to know a minimum of six weeks before the 29th of March if a client want's an automated swap over (8 weeks would be nice).
I see it as highly unlikely that the brexit issue will be resolved either way in the next 4 weeks.
If you have, what did they say to you?
amusingduck said:
Ghibli said:
amusingduck said:
No answer then? I didn't think so.
No idea what your french militants diversion is about.
Perhaps you should read Seefive's post. I didn't think so.No idea what your french militants diversion is about.
Are you trying to say that his post is trolling? How does that meet your definition?
SeeFive said:
Based on your first part of your first sentence, what Tony has posted on associated business advantage for minimal cost against something which isn’t 100% sure either way (his views are stated), and what I think about project fear, I can assure you that I and possibly Tony don’t agree with you - not for me to speak on behalf of Tony just in case I misread his post.
Assumption is the mother of all failures. Tony is not only wise not to assume, he is wise to connect that action to business advantage, despite his (as I read it) stated reticence to believe project fear in its entirety.
What do you think I am actually saying?Assumption is the mother of all failures. Tony is not only wise not to assume, he is wise to connect that action to business advantage, despite his (as I read it) stated reticence to believe project fear in its entirety.
Listening to the radio and reading the papers here in the ROI today and over the last few days
I was struck by a very different tone from the commentators
Firstly Coveney is now talking cross party and cross border which a sign of reality and positive
The view it seems, is a worry about just how hard Ireland will be affected, and the concern that Ireland has pushed too hard on the backstop issue
One commentator said it’s not infeasable that the EU might cut the ROI adrift if it looks like the backstop is going to put 3/4 million German workers out of jobs
Reference was made to the sheer amount of trade the ROI does with the UK and the very small amount it does with the rest of the EU
It was pointed out that the ROI wanted to join the common market through the 60’s but couldn’t until the UK decided to in the 70’s as it would have crippled the ROI to join without the UK being in
I got the tone from the various sources that the mood is changing and it is felt that the need to be good neighbours with your best friend and business partner is greater than cosying up to distant acquaintances who you have little in common with and don’t trade with. One said a well kept fence is a key to good neighbourly relations
Interesting times
I was struck by a very different tone from the commentators
Firstly Coveney is now talking cross party and cross border which a sign of reality and positive
The view it seems, is a worry about just how hard Ireland will be affected, and the concern that Ireland has pushed too hard on the backstop issue
One commentator said it’s not infeasable that the EU might cut the ROI adrift if it looks like the backstop is going to put 3/4 million German workers out of jobs
Reference was made to the sheer amount of trade the ROI does with the UK and the very small amount it does with the rest of the EU
It was pointed out that the ROI wanted to join the common market through the 60’s but couldn’t until the UK decided to in the 70’s as it would have crippled the ROI to join without the UK being in
I got the tone from the various sources that the mood is changing and it is felt that the need to be good neighbours with your best friend and business partner is greater than cosying up to distant acquaintances who you have little in common with and don’t trade with. One said a well kept fence is a key to good neighbourly relations
Interesting times
Ghibli said:
SeeFive said:
Based on your first part of your first sentence, what Tony has posted on associated business advantage for minimal cost against something which isn’t 100% sure either way (his views are stated), and what I think about project fear, I can assure you that I and possibly Tony don’t agree with you - not for me to speak on behalf of Tony just in case I misread his post.
Assumption is the mother of all failures. Tony is not only wise not to assume, he is wise to connect that action to business advantage, despite his (as I read it) stated reticence to believe project fear in its entirety.
What do you think I am actually saying?Assumption is the mother of all failures. Tony is not only wise not to assume, he is wise to connect that action to business advantage, despite his (as I read it) stated reticence to believe project fear in its entirety.
Mr forgetful said:
The uncertainty isn't project fear and businesses are making provisions. We both seem to agree on that.
Seems pretty clear to me. Linking two things to presume agreement on both. One clearly I agree with, one it should be clear I don’t.I am even having to explain you to you now FFS. I am going to spend some time with my missus now, she is,prettier than this keyboard.
Ghibli said:
SeeFive said:
I have already explained. Personal risk profile. Business choice. Ability to do so governed by no other entity with an alternative motive for their project.
Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
The uncertainty isn't project fear and businesses are making provisions. We both seem to agree on that.Maybe they are remainers and believe project fear and prepare. Maybe those that don’t take precautions are hard Brexiteers who believe in unicorns.
It isn’t rocket science.
Wherever there is uncertainty there is a margin to be had.
I would be somewhat surprised if there is not already an options market on cross channel ferries or chunnel freight places. I go long on Newhaven Dieppe and Short on Dover Calais.
Keep the hysteria up re channel port lorry queues and there could be lots of money to be made.
Cheers,
Tony
SeeFive said:
Introduced to the troll argument unnecessarily. Look it up on google. The French militants are in fact the French Government to make it easier for you to find among the other project fear guff.
They threaten to blockade Calais if we don’t pay 39bn, which could be a consequence of a no deal exit.
Basically f
k all to do with your argument about trolls (on a brexit thread by the way).
Would a blockade of Calais be a home goal when all the food in European trucks heading for the UK spoils and the EU companies has tonnes of worthless food sat at Calais docks?They threaten to blockade Calais if we don’t pay 39bn, which could be a consequence of a no deal exit.
Basically f
k all to do with your argument about trolls (on a brexit thread by the way).Edited by steve_k on Sunday 20th January 19:14
Tony427 said:
Not totally correct as the uncertainty definitely is project fea r and businesses are indeed making provisions, and some should actually be aiming to gain competitive advantage from that uncertainty. I know I hope to.
Wherever there is uncertainty there is a margin to be had.
I would be somewhat surprised if there is not already an options market on cross channel ferries or chunnel freight places. I go long on Newhaven Dieppe and Short on Dover Calais.
Keep the hysteria up re channel port lorry queues and there could be lots of money to be made.
Cheers,
Tony
So you are making provisions for project fear which isn't going to happen to give yourself a competitive edge when nothing happens.Wherever there is uncertainty there is a margin to be had.
I would be somewhat surprised if there is not already an options market on cross channel ferries or chunnel freight places. I go long on Newhaven Dieppe and Short on Dover Calais.
Keep the hysteria up re channel port lorry queues and there could be lots of money to be made.
Cheers,
Tony
pingu393 said:
Tony427 said:
As regards Y2K an IT mate of mine spent new Years Eve 2000 sitting in a portacabin on an airfield in the USA surounded by planes being paid nigh on £10k for the privilege.
Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
I'm not surprised that he laughs. He was a year late Suddenly nothing happened.
He still laughs like a drain when I mention it.
Effing battery lasted for many a year. I may try to find it in the loft.
Ghibli said:
Tony427 said:
Not totally correct as the uncertainty definitely is project fea r and businesses are indeed making provisions, and some should actually be aiming to gain competitive advantage from that uncertainty. I know I hope to.
Wherever there is uncertainty there is a margin to be had.
I would be somewhat surprised if there is not already an options market on cross channel ferries or chunnel freight places. I go long on Newhaven Dieppe and Short on Dover Calais.
Keep the hysteria up re channel port lorry queues and there could be lots of money to be made.
Cheers,
Tony
So you are making provisions for project fear which isn't going to happen to give yourself a competitive edge when nothing happens.Wherever there is uncertainty there is a margin to be had.
I would be somewhat surprised if there is not already an options market on cross channel ferries or chunnel freight places. I go long on Newhaven Dieppe and Short on Dover Calais.
Keep the hysteria up re channel port lorry queues and there could be lots of money to be made.
Cheers,
Tony
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
As an aside, I'm less and less impressed by Grieve's "well meaning lawyer" act.
OK, I get that he absolutely wants to Remain, but has decided to tread a line where whatever he's currently up to is "in the nation's interest". That's fair enough, and I'm sure some people will swallow it whole.
What's more concerning is that the unintended consequences of his actions - by trying to force parliamentary procedure, by any means he can grab hold of, he's only succeeding in making more of a mess of the whole process. These aren't the actions of a smart person who means well, these are the actions of someone who will lie to your face whilst punching holes in the boat you're both in.
The subtle difference here is between people who want to debate and make a case for 'their kind of brexit' and those who have no intention of respecting anyone's views but their own. It's nice that he puts on a suit and talks quietly, but he's reckless and desperate, and that's not something you want to be standing next to, whichever side you're on.
OK, I get that he absolutely wants to Remain, but has decided to tread a line where whatever he's currently up to is "in the nation's interest". That's fair enough, and I'm sure some people will swallow it whole.
What's more concerning is that the unintended consequences of his actions - by trying to force parliamentary procedure, by any means he can grab hold of, he's only succeeding in making more of a mess of the whole process. These aren't the actions of a smart person who means well, these are the actions of someone who will lie to your face whilst punching holes in the boat you're both in.
The subtle difference here is between people who want to debate and make a case for 'their kind of brexit' and those who have no intention of respecting anyone's views but their own. It's nice that he puts on a suit and talks quietly, but he's reckless and desperate, and that's not something you want to be standing next to, whichever side you're on.
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