How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
mx5nut said:
plasticpig said:
Catastrophic would be no goods getting across the channel. With 25% capacity a plan can be implemented to prioritize what goes across the channel to mitigate the impact.
Why would we need to mitigate the impact of our greatest triumph since the Battle of Britain? 
BoB was mostly fought over S/East England, the Falklands was thousands of miles away, so more of a logistical nightmare, both only lasted approx 3 months, so it's worth a few posts if nothing else.
Can we get your vote Mr Nut?
What makes that announcement project fear is that a journalist has taken one line out of a sensible planning document and quoted it without any context or explaination. Why? because a range of scenarios from zero impact to armageddon doesn't make good headlines.
As a day job I have to design IT platforms with multiple levels of redundancy and resilience. The chances of the multiple levels of failure needed to trigger them is extremely unlikely and frankly you'd have many more problems than a few bits of IT kit not working. We call it the smoking hole scenario.
Once we've covered the worst case we scale back to something sensible and cover likely scenarios.
Which is likely what that doc covered.
Other that getting retweets it achieves nothing, remainers get to shout about it being a terrible idea "look what a s
t idea brexit is" and leavers get to shout project fear and positions are entrenched.
Will no deal be without out problems? No, but it won't be the end of civilisation either.
As a day job I have to design IT platforms with multiple levels of redundancy and resilience. The chances of the multiple levels of failure needed to trigger them is extremely unlikely and frankly you'd have many more problems than a few bits of IT kit not working. We call it the smoking hole scenario.
Once we've covered the worst case we scale back to something sensible and cover likely scenarios.
Which is likely what that doc covered.
Other that getting retweets it achieves nothing, remainers get to shout about it being a terrible idea "look what a s
t idea brexit is" and leavers get to shout project fear and positions are entrenched.Will no deal be without out problems? No, but it won't be the end of civilisation either.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: I'd prefer to call it a reality vortex.
Mortgage
Bills
Food
Continued employment etc.
All trivial compared to sovereignty I'll give you that.
Sell your own basic principals not mine....but then again you are one of these type who thinks loosing a referendum is a win, so you don't really care.Mortgage
Bills
Food
Continued employment etc.
All trivial compared to sovereignty I'll give you that.
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
It's going well, already threatened resignations from Labour MP's and Labour MP's saying they won't support it, and would vote against it.Looks like Labour are just as riven as the Tories, and the amendment will probably die a death just like Corbyn's motion of no confidence did recently.
don'tbesilly said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
It's going well, already threatened resignations from Labour MP's and Labour MP's saying they won't support it, and would vote against it.Looks like Labour are just as riven as the Tories, and the amendment will probably die a death just like Corbyn's motion of no confidence did recently.
Toad!
Roboraver said:
No Deal Brexit: Cross Channel trade could be hit significantly
Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.
Still Project fear eh !
https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
I guess we won't need those extra ferries then. Another project fear issue debunct.Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.
Still Project fear eh !
https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
jsf said:
Roboraver said:
No Deal Brexit: Cross Channel trade could be hit significantly
Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.
Still Project fear eh !
https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
I guess we won't need those extra ferries then. Another project fear issue debunct.Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.
Still Project fear eh !
https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
Sway said:
ash73 said:
Sway said:
It's suggesting that even in the absolute worst case, up to a quarter of goods can still cross the channel.
You think that's good? 
It's catastrophic!Remember, nothing like a prediction of what will occur. A prediction on what the absolute worst possible imaginable outcome could be.
And still a quarter of goods get through. Despite the whole of the south east being a lorry park, customs being paralysed, and the tunnel being blocked through bottlenecks.
ked - it should have predicted 5% but they left a multiplication step out again (Model goes - take your worst senario and multiply it by your worst factor and then multiply that by your next factor etc etc) Helicopter123 said:
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
don'tbesilly said:
Helicopter123 said:
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
don'tbesilly said:
So to all intents and purposes not leaving the EU, it would work well in the House of Commons less so for those who voted Labour based on their manifesto pledge to respect what many voted labour for, which in case you missed it was to honour the result of the referendum, which perhaps less importantly to you, as did the majority of MP's in the HoC.
True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
Hope it gets through, one of many
Well the fix is on.
Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...
The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite originally having the backing of only 71 labour mps:
king sold on that idea.
Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up
Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...
The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite originally having the backing of only 71 labour mps:
article said:
fronted by Labour MPs David Lammy and Bridget Phillipson with Liberal Democrat deputy leader Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas, the Green party leader in Westminster.
Well that’s me fking sold on that idea.Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up
Edited by Ridgemont on Monday 21st January 23:19
gothatway said:
wormus said:
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).
| Choice | Percentage |
| Other/Don't Know | 14 |
| Stick with deal | 8 |
| Snap Election | 11 |
| Soft Brexit | 13 |
| Replace PM | 14 |
| Harder Brexit | 18 |
| Extend Article 50 | 20 |
| Second Referendum | 24 |
| No deal | 27 |
| Total | 149 |
Weird
Ridgemont said:
Well the fix is on.
Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...
The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite having the backing of only 71 labour mps:
king sold on that idea.
Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up
This was the amendment that was mentioned on ITV news.Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...
The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite having the backing of only 71 labour mps:
article said:
fronted by Labour MPs David Lammy and Bridget Phillipson with Liberal Democrat deputy leader Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas, the Green party leader in Westminster.
Well that’s me fking sold on that idea.Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up
Labour MP's were already threatening to resign over it, and vote against Corbyn's plan/s, strangely those points were not mentioned in the Guardian article.
No doubt Budgie will be along shortly with a copy & paste from Lammy's Twitter feed.
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