How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
Helicopter123 said:
Ghibli said:
OK, let's say we leave with no deal on wto.
Then what?
We wait for the demographics to change a little more then look to rejoin. Sadly I doubt we will get as good a deal as the one we have now, the one negotiated by Thatcher and Major with the rebate, Veto and opt outs from the Euro and Schengen.Then what?
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week 
Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Helicopter123 said:
Ghibli said:
OK, let's say we leave with no deal on wto.
Then what?
We wait for the demographics to change a little more then look to rejoin. Sadly I doubt we will get as good a deal as the one we have now, the one negotiated by Thatcher and Major with the rebate, Veto and opt outs from the Euro and Schengen.Then what?
You've got a lot of waiting to do and you are relying on the EU staying as it is today, when it's already changed since the last vote in 2016, and it's journey to where it wants to go will only accelerate.
Elysium said:
There are clearly some MP's who would like to prevent Brexit. However, I suspect this is in reality very few. I don't see that people like Grieve and Boles are among them. I think they are genuinely trying to protect the country from harm.
At this point, there is a new dichotomy, it is not choice between leave / remain any more:
On one side, we have people who want Brexit to be done properly in a way that protects our economy and jobs.
On the other we have a new version of Project Fear, but this time, the fear is that any delay or clarification is a risk to Brexit. These people want to get on with it, regardless of the details or future arrangements, because each day that goes by weakens the possibility of it happening. So if they see anyone doing anything other than driving forward Brexit, they interpret it as a threat.
The problem is, Grieves and Boles have shown no appearance of supporting any form of brexit as defined by their own manifesto. Everything they have done is to retain the single market and customs union. At this point, there is a new dichotomy, it is not choice between leave / remain any more:
On one side, we have people who want Brexit to be done properly in a way that protects our economy and jobs.
On the other we have a new version of Project Fear, but this time, the fear is that any delay or clarification is a risk to Brexit. These people want to get on with it, regardless of the details or future arrangements, because each day that goes by weakens the possibility of it happening. So if they see anyone doing anything other than driving forward Brexit, they interpret it as a threat.
That can be presented as "protecting the economy and jobs" - but that is the economy and jobs as it currently stands, and the medium to long term have significant European and global headwinds against that being wise.
Others, are proposing creation of the conditions that permit us to be one of the first Western nations to realise the gravity model isn't applicable anymore, and want the freedom to adapt gradually to a more distributed and diversified economy and employment structure.
At present, we can differ on thier desired aims, but it is very difficult to claim honesty, when it's clear they haven't changed their thinking since the GE where they campaigned for something very different from what they are now openly saying.
Robertj21a said:
Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.
Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?
p1stonhead said:
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.
Robertj21a said:
Helicopter123 said:
If I’m honest that doesn’t sound great.
Presumably mx5nut thinks much the same...
Otherwise I suggest we stick to the petty name calling and passive aggressive and "snowflake/remoaner" debate that NP&E is famous.
Elysium said:
At this point, there is a new dichotomy, it is not a choice between leave / remain any more.
My prediction is that if we leave, then things will carry on relatively unchanged, albeit with some aspects of project fear coming to pass, but we'll manage.Remain at the time of the referendum would obviously have resulted in little/no change, but remain now? Then I think we'll be looking at change on a seismic level that we haven't seen before, that might make Brexit and some of those worst case scenarios of project fear pale into insignificance.
The end of two party politics for one thing, with maybe four or five partys, each with just under 20% of the vote, along with the current also rans. I'm not saying all of the leave vote will abandon their usual voting patterns, but it only needs 10% or 15% to do so, and it may be significantly more than that.
It's going to be coalition governments as the new norm from then on.
Edited by Balmoral on Tuesday 22 January 10:11
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.
That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.
Guys just think if Cameron had thought this through A) We many never had a referendum in the first place and B) There would have been a clear plan both to Leave and Remain, instead of that we have a clusterf
k of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction.
k of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction. bhstewie said:
hstewie said:Robertj21a said:
Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.
Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?
Helicopter123 said:
wc98 said:
Ghibli said:
OK, let's say we leave with no deal on wto.
Then what?
Then what?
been plenty articles linked from the experts recently. 30 mile tail backs to channel ports, an 87% drop in cross channel trade, shouldn't really be a problem due to the fact we have no trade deals and we will all be eating chlorinated chicken. p1stonhead said:
They were a united front at vote leave. And in reality don't actually agree at all on what Brexit should look like.
That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
Gove isn't a good exemplar - he voted last week for everything he campaigned against during both ref and GE. That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
He's driven solely by ego and ambition. As soon as he realised May was safe, he jumped back on and does whatever she wants to ensure he doesn't end up back on the back benches.
Toaster said:
Guys just think if Cameron had thought this through A) We many never had a referendum in the first place and B) There would have been a clear plan both to Leave and Remain, instead of that we have a clusterfk of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction.
Cameron actively prevented the civil service either planning for a leave result, and blocked them responding to any requests from the leave campaign. k of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction. That was a politicisation of the civil service learnt from the SNP.
Robertj21a said:
Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.
Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
Only a prediction by so called experts who, if they were any good, would be making millions for themselvesPresumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.
Sway said:
p1stonhead said:
They were a united front at vote leave. And in reality don't actually agree at all on what Brexit should look like.
That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
Gove isn't a good exemplar - he voted last week for everything he campaigned against during both ref and GE. That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
He's driven solely by ego and ambition. As soon as he realised May was safe, he jumped back on and does whatever she wants to ensure he doesn't end up back on the back benches.
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