How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

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SeeFive

6,746 posts

172 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
It's going well, already threatened resignations from Labour MP's and Labour MP's saying they won't support it, and would vote against it.

Looks like Labour are just as riven as the Tories, and the amendment will probably die a death just like Corbyn's motion of no confidence did recently.
He is happy to make suggestions towards amendments all of a sudden when no deal is still on the table? So he could have had a chat with May and the others a couple of days ago then after all.

Toad!

jsf

12,547 posts

175 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Roboraver said:
No Deal Brexit: Cross Channel trade could be hit significantly

Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.

Still Project fear eh !


https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
I guess we won't need those extra ferries then. Another project fear issue debunct.

The Dangerous Elk

4,642 posts

16 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
jsf said:
Roboraver said:
No Deal Brexit: Cross Channel trade could be hit significantly

Potential for trade to suffer 75-87% drop.

Still Project fear eh !


https://news.sky.com/story/cross-channel-freight-t...
I guess we won't need those extra ferries then. Another project fear issue debunct.
Will we get a 3 minute warning ?.....Cambellesk in its level of scare mongering.

Helicopter123

5,255 posts

95 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?

Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
Labour have proposed remaining in the CU. Seems such an obvious solution and could command commons support?

B'stard Child

17,111 posts

185 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Sway said:
ash73 said:
Sway said:
It's suggesting that even in the absolute worst case, up to a quarter of goods can still cross the channel.
You think that's good? eek It's catastrophic!
I think, for a government department absolute worst case scenario, it's pretty bloody staggering.

Remember, nothing like a prediction of what will occur. A prediction on what the absolute worst possible imaginable outcome could be.

And still a quarter of goods get through. Despite the whole of the south east being a lorry park, customs being paralysed, and the tunnel being blocked through bottlenecks.
I think their model is fked - it should have predicted 5% but they left a multiplication step out again (Model goes - take your worst senario and multiply it by your worst factor and then multiply that by your next factor etc etc)

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don'tbesilly

7,168 posts

102 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Helicopter123 said:
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?

Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
Labour have proposed remaining in the CU. Seems such an obvious solution and could command commons support?
So to all intents and purposes not leaving the EU, it would work well in the House of Commons less so for those who voted Labour based on their manifesto pledge to respect what many voted labour for, which in case you missed it was to honour the result of the referendum, which perhaps less importantly to you, as did the majority of MP's in the HoC.

True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.

gothatway

1,795 posts

109 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
wormus said:
What does "Harder Brexit" mean ?
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).

Helicopter123

5,255 posts

95 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
Helicopter123 said:
barryrs said:
Helicopter123 said:
A very encouraging amendment put down by the Labour Parry tonight.
Could you expand?

Seems the options tabled are to stay in the SM which I can’t imagine the EU will be very open too; or another referendum on the deal which may not include a remain option.
Labour have proposed remaining in the CU. Seems such an obvious solution and could command commons support?
So to all intents and purposes not leaving the EU, it would work well in the House of Commons less so for those who voted Labour based on their manifesto pledge to respect what many voted labour for, which in case you missed it was to honour the result of the referendum, which perhaps less importantly to you, as did the majority of MP's in the HoC.

True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
We would still be leaving the political institutions of the EU (thus delivering on the result of the referendum). I think this is a decent compromise.

Jimboka

7,561 posts

143 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
don'tbesilly said:
So to all intents and purposes not leaving the EU, it would work well in the House of Commons less so for those who voted Labour based on their manifesto pledge to respect what many voted labour for, which in case you missed it was to honour the result of the referendum, which perhaps less importantly to you, as did the majority of MP's in the HoC.

True patriots - sell out the electorate that pay their salaries, and try and rip off the electorate by scamming their expenses, but you fully support true patriots.
smile
Hope it gets through, one of many

Ridgemont

1,673 posts

70 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Well the fix is on.

Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...

The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite originally having the backing of only 71 labour mps:

article said:
fronted by Labour MPs David Lammy and Bridget Phillipson with Liberal Democrat deputy leader Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas, the Green party leader in Westminster.
Well that’s me fking sold on that idea.

jester

Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up

shoot



Edited by Ridgemont on Monday 21st January 23:19

B'stard Child

17,111 posts

185 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
gothatway said:
wormus said:
What does "Harder Brexit" mean ?
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).
It's funny while you wrote that I had seen it and was thinking the same thing so I knocked up my best guesses at percentage and dropped it into a table

Choice Percentage
Other/Don't Know 14
Stick with deal 8
Snap Election 11
Soft Brexit 13
Replace PM 14
Harder Brexit 18
Extend Article 50 20
Second Referendum 24
No deal 27
Total 149


Weird

don'tbesilly

7,168 posts

102 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
Well the fix is on.

Labour 2nd vote amendment- now down to the procedural equivalent of Russian Roulette that is that tiny little man Bercow;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/21/l...

The REALLY good news is that a large chunk of tomorrow’s media enema evacuation will be focussed on a press conference which will no doubt be front and centre despite having the backing of only 71 labour mps:

article said:
fronted by Labour MPs David Lammy and Bridget Phillipson with Liberal Democrat deputy leader Jo Swinson and Caroline Lucas, the Green party leader in Westminster.
Well that’s me fking sold on that idea.

jester

Awaits Budgies inevitable ‘true patriots all’ follow up

shoot
This was the amendment that was mentioned on ITV news.

Labour MP's were already threatening to resign over it, and vote against Corbyn's plan/s, strangely those points were not mentioned in the Guardian article.

No doubt Budgie will be along shortly with a copy & paste from Lammy's Twitter feed.

SeeFive

6,746 posts

172 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
gothatway said:
wormus said:
What does "Harder Brexit" mean ?
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).
It's funny while you wrote that I had seen it and was thinking the same thing so I knocked up my best guesses at percentage and dropped it into a table

Choice Percentage
Other/Don't Know 14
Stick with deal 8
Snap Election 11
Soft Brexit 13
Replace PM 14
Harder Brexit 18
Extend Article 50 20
Second Referendum 24
No deal 27
Total 149


Weird
Nobody has asked if it was written on a bus yet?

B'stard Child

17,111 posts

185 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
SeeFive said:
Nobody has asked if it was written on a bus yet?
Nope bus was mentioned a couple of pages back

It's a cyclical thread - round and round it goes where it stops nobody knows

Balmoral

31,466 posts

187 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
SeeFive said:
Nobody has asked if it was written on a bus yet?
Nope bus was mentioned a couple of pages back

It's a cyclical thread - round and round it goes where it stops nobody knows
All together now...

The numbers on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round, the numbers on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round, all day long...

SeeFive

6,746 posts

172 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Balmoral said:
B'stard Child said:
SeeFive said:
Nobody has asked if it was written on a bus yet?
Nope bus was mentioned a couple of pages back

It's a cyclical thread - round and round it goes where it stops nobody knows
All together now...

The numbers on the bus go round and round, round and round, the numbers on the bus go round and round, round and round, all day long...
I am sure you know that the post was ever so slightly relevant to that and many other bus mentions on here by certain posters. smile

Are you saying that leave now have a Circle Line tube to post 20 foot high slogans on? smile

Ridgemont

1,673 posts

70 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
B'stard Child said:
gothatway said:
wormus said:
What does "Harder Brexit" mean ?
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).
It's funny while you wrote that I had seen it and was thinking the same thing so I knocked up my best guesses at percentage and dropped it into a table

Choice Percentage
Other/Don't Know 14
Stick with deal 8
Snap Election 11
Soft Brexit 13
Replace PM 14
Harder Brexit 18
Extend Article 50 20
Second Referendum 24
No deal 27
Total 149


Weird
The original question might help explain. It appears to have been a multiple choice:

Q2. On Tuesday evening the House of Commons voted overwhelmingly against Theresa May's Brexit deal. Which of the following steps, if any, do you think the Prime Minister should now take?
Base: All respondents (Excl. Don't know)

B'stard Child

17,111 posts

185 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
The original question might help explain. It appears to have been a multiple choice:

Q2. On Tuesday evening the House of Commons voted overwhelmingly against Theresa May's Brexit deal. Which of the following steps, if any, do you think the Prime Minister should now take?
Base: All respondents (Excl. Don't know)
I did one of them there poll things on here once and accidently allowed the participants to pick multiple options

From memory 10 choices - 150 odd participants and 1500 votes - it was a proper clusterfk!!!

ash73

15,584 posts

160 months

Monday 21st January
quotequote all
I'm sick to death of remainer MPs hiding behind the proxy of a second vote, they should have the courage to say they want to revoke article 50 and cancel Brexit.

Plus they might not get the result they want, then how stupid would they look!

Vanden Saab

1,853 posts

13 months

Tuesday 22nd January
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
B'stard Child said:
gothatway said:
wormus said:
What does "Harder Brexit" mean ?
Anyone have any idea how this poll can have been carried out ? The choices are far from exclusive, which is presumably why the total appears to be well over 100% (about 150% from the look of it).
It's funny while you wrote that I had seen it and was thinking the same thing so I knocked up my best guesses at percentage and dropped it into a table

Choice Percentage
Other/Don't Know 14
Stick with deal 8
Snap Election 11
Soft Brexit 13
Replace PM 14
Harder Brexit 18
Extend Article 50 20
Second Referendum 24
No deal 27
Total 149


Weird
The original question might help explain. It appears to have been a multiple choice:

Q2. On Tuesday evening the House of Commons voted overwhelmingly against Theresa May's Brexit deal. Which of the following steps, if any, do you think the Prime Minister should now take?
Base: All respondents (Excl. Don't know)
So with 2046 people and 3096 responses either half the people voted twice or a third voted 3 times or or or what an utterly pointless poll. Oh and the harder and softer answers are in relation to renegotiating with Brussels...

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