How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[turbobloke]

Sway said:

Toaster said:

Guys just think if Cameron had thought this through A) We many never had a referendum in the first place and B) There would have been a clear plan both to Leave and Remain, instead of that we have a clusterfk of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction.

Cameron actively prevented the civil service either planning for a leave result, and blocked them responding to any requests from the leave campaign.

That was a politicisation of the civil service learnt from the SNP.

With extra tuition from Blair.

[Crackie]

Helicopter123 said:

Ghibli said:

OK, let's say we leave with no deal on wto.

Then what?

We wait for the demographics to change a little more then look to rejoin. Sadly I doubt we will get as good a deal as the one we have now, the one negotiated by Thatcher and Major with the rebate, Veto and opt outs from the Euro and Schengen.

You would just wait . Wait for the oldies to die off to be replaced by youthful remainers. You would make no attempt to heal the political rift in the country which lead to the original leave vote. That is hardly surprising based on your posting history but I think you'll be waiting for a very very long time indeed.


75% of the regions of the UK voted to leave...……… sitting on your hands and just waiting isn't going to change anything.

[don'tbesilly]

p1stonhead said:

don'tbesilly said:

p1stonhead said:

wisbech said:

Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch

The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week

Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.

Given that one stabbed the other in the back in the Tory leadership challenge prior to May becoming PM it's no surprise really.

Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.

They were a united front at vote leave. And in reality don't actually agree at all on what Brexit should look like.

That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.

The HoC was a united front when it voted for the electorate to have a referendum on staying in or leaving the EU
The HoC was a united front when it voted for A50 to be enacted which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
The HoC was a united front when it voted for the Withdrawal Bill which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
Both Labour & Tory MP's stood on manifestos that supported respecting and enacting the result of the 2016 referendum.

317 Tory MP's stood on a manifesto that stated that the UK would leave the SM & CU and no longer come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

If the likes of Grieve/Soubry/Boles et al didn't like what the manifesto stated they should have had the courtesy to say so and stand down.

The Tory party manifesto is what many Leavers voted for, May's deal does not respect the manifesto, if it did it might make her deal more palatable to many Tory MP's who don't support her deal, and voted it down.

[Sway]

p1stonhead said:

Sway said:

p1stonhead said:

They were a united front at vote leave. And in reality don't actually agree at all on what Brexit should look like.

That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.

Gove isn't a good exemplar - he voted last week for everything he campaigned against during both ref and GE.

He's driven solely by ego and ambition. As soon as he realised May was safe, he jumped back on and does whatever she wants to ensure he doesn't end up back on the back benches.

I don’t disagree but times those kinds of complications and the multiple reasons people by millions of voters and you see the problem with determining what leave want right now.

What's difficult to understand about 80% of votes during the last GE voting for parties who campaigned to leave the single market and customs union?

Have you ever questioned whether a party delivering a manifesto pledge is really doing what the voters want before?

[p1stonhead]

Sway said:

p1stonhead said:

Sway said:

p1stonhead said:

They were a united front at vote leave. And in reality don't actually agree at all on what Brexit should look like.

That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.

Gove isn't a good exemplar - he voted last week for everything he campaigned against during both ref and GE.

He's driven solely by ego and ambition. As soon as he realised May was safe, he jumped back on and does whatever she wants to ensure he doesn't end up back on the back benches.

I don’t disagree but times those kinds of complications and the multiple reasons people by millions of voters and you see the problem with determining what leave want right now.

What's difficult to understand about 80% of votes during the last GE voting for parties who campaigned to leave the single market and customs union?

Have you ever questioned whether a party delivering a manifesto pledge is really doing what the voters want before?

I never question that. I know they don’t really care as long as they can protect their careers.

[plasticpig]

Toaster said:

Guys just think if Cameron had thought this through A) We many never had a referendum in the first place and B) There would have been a clear plan both to Leave and Remain, instead of that we have a clusterfk of chaos, the government has lost years of governing the country and given it proper direction.

I voted remain mainly on the basis that there was not clear plan of what Brexit would look like. The Flexcit plan looked pretty good and if the referendum had been based on remain or leave based on Flexcit I think I would have voted leave.

I though leave would be very messy without a plan but I certainly didn't expect the clusterfk it's turned out to be. Despite the Con-Lib coalition the Parliamentary culture remains extremely adversarial and can appear to more like a school playground than a serious debating chamber. If May had adopted a more collegial approach from the outset we may have had a better result. But this very much against the ingrained culture. Parliament really needs to grow up a bit.

[Ridgemont]

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Don’t forget trade wars and the trump effect.
And the impact of AI.
And the likely implosion of the Eurozone if global growth does slow down.
And the IMF’s proven track record in falling into barrels of tits and still come out sucking it’s thumb.

[amusingduck]

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

They've got a pretty poor track record. If the IMF get it so badly wrong, probably not worth worrying (or cheering) about

[Roboraver]

Jeeze after 3 years of asking still no solution to the N.I border issue, before the vote I said it would be the major issue to resolve and brexit would happen if a acceptable solution found and how I was laughed at !! But now ? Oh dear

[SpeckledJim]

amusingduck said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

They've got a pretty poor track record. If the IMF get it so badly wrong, probably not worth worrying (or cheering) about

I was just about to go looking for that graph.

In the interests of fairness to our Remainer colleagues, it should be mentioned that the time to really worry is when the IMF says things are looking-up.

I'm much more concerned by the IMF predicting we'll be ok, than by the article saying Dover traffic will fall by 80% or whatever.

[fatboy18]

I do find it interesting that most of the remainers here seem to be looking at this purley from a Business perspective.

I looked a the bigger picture of the UK being able to make its own way around the world and not be dictated to by Brussels.

There is no doubt that there will be some business disruption in the short term but long term I think we will be better off. I said this a couple of years ago.

[Digga]

Well UK Borrowing , year to date is £13.1 billion less than previous period and the lowest year-to-date since 2002. BoE has been 'off' QE for a long while, and base rates are not at zero (let alone negative) so whatever follows, we're far better placed to weather it than most of the rest of Europe.

[Vaud]

fatboy18 said:

I do find it interesting that most of the remainers here seem to be looking at this purley from a Business perspective.

I looked a the bigger picture of the UK being able to make its own way around the world and not be dictated to by Brussels.

There is no doubt that there will be some business disruption in the short term but long term I think we will be better off. I said this a couple of years ago.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

It's a disaster!!!

[SeeFive]

Vaud said:

fatboy18 said:

I do find it interesting that most of the remainers here seem to be looking at this purley from a Business perspective.

I looked a the bigger picture of the UK being able to make its own way around the world and not be dictated to by Brussels.

There is no doubt that there will be some business disruption in the short term but long term I think we will be better off. I said this a couple of years ago.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

It's a disaster!!!

Well let’s be honest, the FUD from the remain campaign “experts” did say it would be. Oh hang on a sec.

[Vaud]

SeeFive said:

Well let’s be honest, the FUD from the remain campaign “experts” did say it would be. Oh hang on a sec.

I think the biggest risk is probably wage inflation in the next 24 months driven by loss of FOM (though I am sure visas for skilled workers will be allowed) and a move to near full "employment"

[crankedup]

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Indeed, the wider growing political discontentment with main stream political Parties should concern everybody. Worryingly the EU Parliament appear to be relaxed merely suggesting that Member States internal political problems are just that.The Parliament does not recognise it as the basis of that discontent arising from the thier own policies.

[plasticpig]

Vaud said:

I think the biggest risk is probably wage inflation in the next 24 months driven by loss of FOM (though I am sure visas for skilled workers will be allowed) and a move to near full "employment"

Skilled workers isn't the problem. Who is going to pick the fruit and veg is more of a concern.

[SpeckledJim]

Vaud said:

SeeFive said:

Well let’s be honest, the FUD from the remain campaign “experts” did say it would be. Oh hang on a sec.

I think the biggest risk is probably wage inflation in the next 24 months driven by loss of FOM (though I am sure visas for skilled workers will be allowed) and a move to near full "employment"

Sounds awful.

Osborne, eh? What a visionary. Saw all this horrible 'full employment' coming. We can't say we weren't warned.

[SpeckledJim]

plasticpig said:

Vaud said:

I think the biggest risk is probably wage inflation in the next 24 months driven by loss of FOM (though I am sure visas for skilled workers will be allowed) and a move to near full "employment"

Skilled workers isn't the problem. Who is going to pick the fruit and veg is more of a concern.

Well, if we've got a load of temporary jobs going, and just over there is half a continent on its arse with loads of energetic young people who'd love a temporary job at UK minimum wage, then I reckon I've got a plan...

[MDMetal]

crankedup said:

Digga said:

bhstewie said:

Robertj21a said:

Good to read in The Times today that the IMF thinks Britain will grow at least as fast as its biggest Eurozone neighbours over the next two years.

Presumably, the Remainers will put that down to Fake News.

Why would I do that? It's good news if it happens.

They also think a no-deal Brexit and the China slowdown are the biggest risks to global growth, so it's not an entirely rosy picture is it?

I disagree, but only very slightly; I'd add to those concerns, the yellow vest protests and rising anti-EU sentiment in Europe. I think this is more significant than many realise and part of a wider discontent with inequality.

Indeed, the wider growing political discontentment with main stream political Parties should concern everybody. Worryingly the EU Parliament appear to be relaxed merely suggesting that Member States internal political problems are just that.The Parliament does not recognise it as the basis of that discontent arising from the thier own policies.

Well apart from the times they feel they need to wade in and really stick the boot in. You'd think that some constant gentle nudging was far healthier, they also seem useless at extolling their virtues, they should have had a voice in the referendum and stood for themselves. One of the reasons I switched from remain to leave was down to the fact that the EU just can't sort itself out even when it has to. It's remarkable they seem to have more cohesion on making sure we get a full united broadside from them in the negotiations vs sorting out Greece/Italy/migrants etc, sort of shows you where their priorities are. They've said more to use since we triggered than A50 than during the referendum. Slyly suggesting constantly we could just stay even though they know now exactly why we voted out and why most of their member states have this Anti EU voices in them.

The more I hear MP's arguing to rule out no deal the more I realise what a bunch of idiots they all are, I'm not Pro-no deal but May is 100% clear you leave with no deal, a deal or you don't leave those are the only outcomes and only one of them is the legal default. None of the opposition or remainers seems to have proposed a solution to any problem that isn't just an attempt not to leave fully.

Internally I wonder if they've calculated that leaving with no deal will cause some short term pain but long term we'll end up with much better deals once they get rushed through than a bad deal now that we'll never be able to row back from.