How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)
Discussion
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hstewie said:
hstewie said:amusingduck said:
That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?
e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
Perhaps I should have said "We're all guessing" as it's probably closer.e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
There's next to no data to draw conclusions from, it's also (in my view) a mistake to base a choice purely on "known" economic outcomes. The vote was a good chance to look to the future and have a large debate, instead everyone looked at the short term and threw mud. What a shame
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:SpeckledJim said:
What about Osborne's mixed basket of doom? Surely you can now safely write that off as Project Fear?
You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?
It was Project Fear and with hindsight were dishonest, I think that's universally acknowledged, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?
It worries me that there's a tendency to take anything negative now and immediately decry it as "Project Fear, remember Osborne!!" regardless of source.
You see it with the IMF stuff, "Brilliant news, the economies growing" followed by "No-deal will cause issues, you can't listen to the IMF".
It may be fine, I hope it is, but equally we know how the Boy who Cried Wolf ended.
The reason is that 'the experts' have been caught out as either liars or incompetents, and so they've blown their hard-earned credibility. It was their choice to do that, and they're reaping the consequences.
For three years, the man on the street has done a better job of economic forecasting than all the millionaire professional economic forecasters.
It may be that one of the lying/incompetent experts is today absolutely bob-on with their appraisal of the situation, but if we don't believe them, the responsibility for that lies with them. Fool (some of us) once...
It'll be reet.
plasticpig said:
amusingduck said:
That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?
e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
If you believe all of the most pessimistic predictions you won't be disappointed.e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:amusingduck said:
That's the middle ground fallacy, isn't it?
e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
Perhaps I should have said "We're all guessing" as it's probably closer.e.g. if one person says the sky is blue and the other yellow, the middle ground fallacy is to conclude that the sky is green.
The most pessimistic remain predictions are more pessimistic than the optimistic leave predictions are optimistic, I would say.
Taking the port of Calais situation as an example, we have analysts and remain focussed politicians / media making statements of a range of scenarios including the worst possible outcome (it is suggested) as what will actually happen whilst paying no attention to the people who run the ports saying all will be ok.
Now while I (maybe stupidly) put more trust in the people making plans to make it work rather than those with an agenda pontificating from spreadsheets, it seems others are ignoring one side of the evidence and simply jumping on the worst possible outcome as what we will get. So when I see that, I point to the counter position, given the track record of expert predictions over Brexit, such as Osborne and Co.
So this is where I see the potential for project fear kicking in again. The remain camp seem to be a little sensationalist in their presentation of today’s predicted doom ignoring other potentially reliable information. It smacks of desperation, or attempted brain washing.
toppstuff said:
The Dangerous Elk said:
Greening...."the house cannot decide so the people must."
Yes...WE ALREADY DID Justine !
She delivered brexit. Her deal means we leave. You got what you wanted. Just because it’s not the right flavour isn’t her problem, it’s yours. Yes...WE ALREADY DID Justine !
Your wishes as expressed in the referendum are fulfilled. Job done.
If you don’t like the flavour of brexit you should have made it clear what flavour you wanted. So we will probably have to ask again, if you want strawberry , vanilla or pickled onion flavoured brexit.
Leave = EU/Mays deal
Leave = No Deal
Job done
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week 
Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.
That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
The HoC was a united front when it voted for A50 to be enacted which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
The HoC was a united front when it voted for the Withdrawal Bill which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
Both Labour & Tory MP's stood on manifestos that supported respecting and enacting the result of the 2016 referendum.
317 Tory MP's stood on a manifesto that stated that the UK would leave the SM & CU and no longer come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
If the likes of Grieve/Soubry/Boles et al didn't like what the manifesto stated they should have had the courtesy to say so and stand down.
The Tory party manifesto is what many Leavers voted for, May's deal does not respect the manifesto, if it did it might make her deal more palatable to many Tory MP's who don't support her deal, and voted it down.
Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
Helicopter123 said:
You are mistaken re the Tory MPs.
Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
Only a right royal pain in the neck would need every post to include"a few exceptions" added to allow them to understand.Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
UK employment total hits record high
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
Helicopter123 said:
UK employment total hits record high
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
Fair play, that's pretty funny. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
Is it the experts being wrong or the reporting of the experts?
Most will cover a range of scenarios not all of which are going to be dramatic. The MSM picks the one that fits the agenda it is pushing. As most people don't understand or care they skim the headlines and regurgitate that the IMF or whoever is saying it will be fine/a disaster depending on their views.
Most will cover a range of scenarios not all of which are going to be dramatic. The MSM picks the one that fits the agenda it is pushing. As most people don't understand or care they skim the headlines and regurgitate that the IMF or whoever is saying it will be fine/a disaster depending on their views.
toppstuff said:
Sway said:
toppstuff said:
She delivered brexit. Her deal means we leave. You got what you wanted. Just because it’s not the right flavour isn’t her problem, it’s yours.
Your wishes as expressed in the referendum are fulfilled. Job done.
If you don’t like the flavour of brexit you should have made it clear what flavour you wanted. So we will probably have to ask again, if you want strawberry , vanilla or pickled onion flavoured brexit.
Not according to the manifesto she stood under... Your wishes as expressed in the referendum are fulfilled. Job done.
If you don’t like the flavour of brexit you should have made it clear what flavour you wanted. So we will probably have to ask again, if you want strawberry , vanilla or pickled onion flavoured brexit.
If I put a Kylie Minogue name badge on you, and you pop a bit of lipstick on, it doesn't make you Kylie Minogue and I'm not going to be thrilled about spending the night with you.
(Don't tell me. Kylie Minogue is one of the people you've been chatting to across Europe on your recent travels, you know how she feels about Brexit, she's distraught the UK are leaving and there was nothing you could do to explain the collective UK psyche that led to all this...).
Helicopter123 said:
UK employment total hits record high
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
I am sure your sentiment is echoed by Spain, and Italy, and...https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
This is fantastic news and highlights the benefit of EU membership.
Long may it continue.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said: Perhaps, but I'm struggling how the IMF can be listened to when they predict decent growth but it's Project Fear when they say a no-deal is an economic risk.
Seems a little bit cake and eat it.
Obviously they cannot. Seems a little bit cake and eat it.
I strongly suspect people are posting such things with not a little mirth, bearing in mind how often these things have been posted in support of "the other side" (take your pick).
The Dangerous Elk said:
Helicopter123 said:
You are mistaken re the Tory MPs.
Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
Only a right royal pain in the neck would need every post to include"a few exceptions" added to allow them to understand.Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
To therefore blast them as being somehow 'traitors' is lazy and wrong.
Their constituents knew where they stood and voted accordingly.
bhstewie said:
hstewie said:SpeckledJim said:
What about Osborne's mixed basket of doom? Surely you can now safely write that off as Project Fear?
You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?
It was Project Fear and with hindsight were dishonest, I think that's universally acknowledged, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.You don't still think they were honest predictions, do you? What about the emergency budget?
It worries me that there's a tendency to take anything negative now and immediately decry it as "Project Fear, remember Osborne!!" regardless of source.
You see it with the IMF stuff, "Brilliant news, the economies growing" followed by "No-deal will cause issues, you can't listen to the IMF".
It may be fine, I hope it is, but equally we know how the Boy who Cried Wolf ended.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf was brought on by the Remain camp. Worse - it continues unabated. Hindsight wasn't required, just common sense. Do you think EU trade will be knocked by 80%? What about a 10% knock to GDP?
You might be sensible/pragmatic enough to treat these with a pinch of salt (subject to full transparency on the factors considered), but it's evident from the way some of the more challenged Remain supporters on here post that you don't appear to be a majority.
Things will not change if the methods employed do not change.
Murph7355 said:
It's not even close to universally accepted IMO. Brushed under the carpet by ardent Remainers is closer. The ONLY lies ever told were by Leave etc.
The Boy Who Cried Wolf was brought on by the Remain camp. Worse - it continues unabated. Hindsight wasn't required, just common sense. Do you think EU trade will be knocked by 80%? What about a 10% knock to GDP?
You might be sensible/pragmatic enough to treat these with a pinch of salt (subject to full transparency on the factors considered), but it's evident from the way some of the more challenged Remain supporters on here post that you don't appear to be a majority.
Things will not change if the methods employed do not change.
The main problem now for all economists is that they are the boy who cried wolf. It will take years for them to recover the damage to their reputation caused by their blatant lying. The Boy Who Cried Wolf was brought on by the Remain camp. Worse - it continues unabated. Hindsight wasn't required, just common sense. Do you think EU trade will be knocked by 80%? What about a 10% knock to GDP?
You might be sensible/pragmatic enough to treat these with a pinch of salt (subject to full transparency on the factors considered), but it's evident from the way some of the more challenged Remain supporters on here post that you don't appear to be a majority.
Things will not change if the methods employed do not change.
For the next 5 years for sure their opinion on most topics will be readily ignored by the majority of the electorate.
Helicopter123 said:
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
don'tbesilly said:
p1stonhead said:
wisbech said:
Jeez - whatever your position on EU, the last few years have been embarrassing to watch
The two main guys from Vote Leave (Gove and Johnson) voted in complete opposite ways last week Pretty much sums up how shambolic the whole process has been and in terms of knowing what anyone wants. After 3 years we have still have zero consensus.
Still history and facts, always an irrelevance to some.
That is exactly why no leavers can agree what our actual target is. No one knows exactly what anyone else voted for in terms of how we would leave.
The HoC was a united front when it voted for A50 to be enacted which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
The HoC was a united front when it voted for the Withdrawal Bill which by it's very definition meant/means leaving the EU.
Both Labour & Tory MP's stood on manifestos that supported respecting and enacting the result of the 2016 referendum.
317 Tory MP's stood on a manifesto that stated that the UK would leave the SM & CU and no longer come under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
If the likes of Grieve/Soubry/Boles et al didn't like what the manifesto stated they should have had the courtesy to say so and stand down.
The Tory party manifesto is what many Leavers voted for, May's deal does not respect the manifesto, if it did it might make her deal more palatable to many Tory MP's who don't support her deal, and voted it down.
Anna Soubry made her position very clear pre the 2017 election.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/not-a...
https://twitter.com/DVATW/status/10869339297545420...
Soubry: A vote for me is a vote for May & Brexit
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