How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[Slagathore]

JagLover said:

Google the seasonal agricultural workers scheme and I imagine that will be almost exactly what the government would use, should we ever leave.

Had a quick look. Seems like it should be fairly easy to implement.

[Digga]

SpeckledJim said:

jsf said:

SpeckledJim said:

Can anyone wheel out an expert who can explain why employment booms when a depression with a known start date looms?

Sounds like a Nobel-winning piece of research, so surely someone's hard at it?

Wage growth and employment numbers always lags economy growth, in a cycle based system, which is what we live in, you will always see wages rising faster and more people on the payroll when the downturn hits because of this. It's pure lag factors in the system.

Granted, but this is, apparently, a very obvious depression with a defined start date of 30th March. Most depressions don't call ahead to make an appointment. Who on earth is still taking people on whilst that precious information is available to them!?

(yes, a bit facetious )

Dunno, but it is interesting to note that total pay (i.e. including bonuses etc.) growth was 3.4%, the highest since May to July 2008. And we know what happened after that...

[anonymous-user]

SpeckledJim said:

Granted, but this is, apparently, a very obvious depression with a defined start date of 30th March. Most depressions don't call ahead to make an appointment. Who on earth is still taking people on whilst that precious information is available to them!?

(yes, a bit facetious )

Oh sorry, i thought you wanted a serious answer, I'm not interested in debating bullst.

[MDMetal]

tumble dryer said:

Interesting position on a hard border, if No Deal - Irish Independent.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/its-pre...

So if we leave with no deal and the UK says no border and Ireland says it will refuse to put a border up... What happens? Does Ireland just get a telling off every so often from the EU? is that possibly a better outcome? A pointless knuckle wrapping

[amusingduck]

MDMetal said:

So if we leave with no deal and the UK says no border and Ireland says it will refuse to put a border up... What happens? Does Ireland just get a telling off every so often from the EU? is that possibly a better outcome? A pointless knuckle wrapping

[MDMetal]

amusingduck said:

MDMetal said:

So if we leave with no deal and the UK says no border and Ireland says it will refuse to put a border up... What happens? Does Ireland just get a telling off every so often from the EU? is that possibly a better outcome? A pointless knuckle wrapping

but not on day 1, how long would it take them to march over? and would they really do that when the border isn't wanted by either country? I think tbh the reality would be finding a solution to the actual issues that arose instead of the ones imagined.

[amusingduck]

MDMetal said:

but not on day 1, how long would it take them to march over? and would they really do that when the border isn't wanted by either country? I think tbh the reality would be finding a solution to the actual issues that arose instead of the ones imagined.

I imagine a more realistic course of action might be to tell Ireland they can shove their desired no-deal €10bn subsidies up their arse unless they play ball.

[Balmoral]

As nobody says they will build a border. I reckon it will be a border in name only, and classified as a no, or low, enforcement priority in practical terms. I doubt there will be any migrant issues as Ireland's not part of Schengen either, they can't easily get there anymore than here.

[paulrockliffe]

amusingduck said:

I imagine a more realistic course of action might be to tell Ireland they can shove their desired no-deal €10bn subsidies up their arse unless they play ball.

That won't work as it'll cost more than the £10bn just to build the wall, unless they get the Mexicans to pay for it.

It'll get treated the same as the French budget deficit I'm sure.

[Dr Jekyll]

amusingduck said:

I imagine a more realistic course of action might be to tell Ireland they can shove their desired no-deal €10bn subsidies up their arse unless they play ball.

They wouldn't risk the Irish telling them to FO. The EU is only interested in the border as a pretext for the backstop. If we leave without a deal they'll forget all about it.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dr Jekyll said:

They wouldn't risk the Irish telling them to FO. The EU is only interested in the border as a pretext for the backstop. If we leave without a deal they'll forget all about it.

Or perhaps not.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6619073/N...

[MDMetal]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Dr Jekyll said:

They wouldn't risk the Irish telling them to FO. The EU is only interested in the border as a pretext for the backstop. If we leave without a deal they'll forget all about it.

Or perhaps not.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6619073/N...

That's the point the EU says that but the countries either side of that border say no thanks.

[Murph7355]

Balmoral said:

As nobody says they will build a border. I reckon it will be a border in name only, and classified as a no, or low, enforcement priority in practical terms. I doubt there will be any migrant issues as Ireland's not part of Schengen either, they can't easily get there anymore than here.

The BBC ran a piece on this (and they're not exactly known as pro-Brexit).

It would mean some complications for Ireland/EU but they are prepared for them it seems.

So the whole issue of the Irish Border is not an issue. Least ways not one that can't and won't be handled like grown ups even in the event of "no deal". It's bks and always has been.

[Amateurish]

Sway said:

How could she have emailed all her constituents, as presented in that link?

Probably it was conservative party members in the constituency.

[Amateurish]

Murph7355 said:

It would mean some complications for Ireland/EU but they are prepared for them it seems.

So the whole issue of the Irish Border is not an issue. Least ways not one that can't and won't be handled like grown ups even in the event of "no deal". It's bks and always has been.

They are not prepared for them. All they are saying is that there won't be a hard border, but they don't know how this will be achieved.

"the Government in Dublin has said it “will not accept a hard border on this island and therefore we are not planning for one”.

“This will be more difficult to achieve without the Withdrawal Agreement and would require very difficult discussions with our EU partners,” a Government spokesperson said in a statement to The Irish Times.

“Working out suitable customs and trade arrangements compatible with our EU membership will require detailed discussion with the commission, while the UK will also need to live up to its responsibilities.”"

[Balmoral]

Amateurish said:

Sway said:

How could she have emailed all her constituents, as presented in that link?

Probably it was conservative party members in the constituency.

Well that's more than I've ever got from my MP at least. I've written thrice and only ever got a reply once, that was from the constituency office wanting to confirm that I was both a constituent and party member. I've never had as much as an update round robin, other than to sell raffle tickets. Not impressed tbh, particularly as I'm onside with her in most respects. Office staff are nice though, very chatty if a little indiscreet.

[SpeckledJim]

Amateurish said:

Sway said:

How could she have emailed all her constituents, as presented in that link?

Probably it was conservative party members in the constituency.

So, what, a couple of thousand people? There's no way I can think of that she could email the electorate as a whole.

[Amateurish]

Balmoral said:

Well that's more than I've ever got from my MP at least. I've written thrice and only ever got a reply once, that was from the constituency office wanting to confirm that I was both a constituent and party member. I've never had as much as an update round robin, other than to sell raffle tickets. Not impressed tbh, particularly as I'm onside with her in most respects. Office staff are nice though, very chatty if a little indiscreet.

It probably depends on how safe their seat is!

[Amateurish]

SpeckledJim said:

So, what, a couple of thousand people? There's no way I can think of that she could email the electorate as a whole.

More like a couple of hundred, if that.

[Balmoral]

Amateurish said:

It probably depends on how safe their seat is!

Safe. Her office walls are papered with Rospa certificates.