How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 7)

[Murph7355]

citizensm1th said:

Brown tomato is just wrong

Brown tomatoes are wrong in any context.

Green, red, yellow or orange please (maybe purple at a push).

[Piha]

bodhi said:

Piha said:

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

I find it beyond parody that a trade union can't see the problem with taking "No Deal" off the table. Imagine they were negotiating for better pay/conditions, and took strike action off the table.

How successful would they be then?

Well I guess that the present tory government having shown themselves to be such good negotiators, that everyone should just let them get on with it then, I mean what could possibly go wrong...?

And didn't the PM ask the Unions into No10 to plead for help?

[ATG]

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

[Murph7355]

toppstuff said:

You assert that powerful people have historically achieved things by using the dissatisfaction of the population. I think I can also add that another component of this has been to create something for people to be rallied against - a bogeyman or group of people; something to focus the anger of the dissatisfied.

You do realise that as a brexiter, you a participant in exactly the same process ?

You don’t see it now but it’s pretty clear to the rest of the world that there is a nexus that links populism with brexit with trump with MAGA with trade wars and with increased anger. I refuse to be a part of that nexus. How about you ?

You're just part of the other nexus that's being sucked the other way.

"Grouping" has nowt to do with Brexit. We all belong to different oft overlapping groups. It's what people as a species do.

"You don't see it now..." ought to be on the very front page of a book on how to be supremely condescending and arrogant. How do you know he doesn't see it? What is there to see? Are you aware of what you're not seeing?

[amusingduck]

ATG said:

amusingduck said:

You know what they expected, because "the Leave campaign was clear this would be the easiest deal ever".

What Liam Fox Actually Said said:

If you think about it, the free trade agreement that we will have to come to with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history. We're already beginning with zero tarrifs, and we're already beginning at the point of maximum regulatory equivalence, as its called. In other words our rules and laws are exactly the same. The only reason that we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics.

Oh dear. It's not what you've claimed at all. How silly you look

Fox is such a plum. Like Leadsom, you have to wonder if he's a fair bit thicker than most of his colleagues. He really didn't seem to grasp that the challenge is to agree how to KEEP the "rules and laws" aligned IN THE FUTURE and enforced consistently after you've removed yourself from the mechanisms that currently do all of that. It's like saying "it'll be easy to keep flying once I jump out of this plane because I'm currently in the plane and it's flying!".

Isn't that exactly what he's alluding to in the bold section?

[SpeckledJim]

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

[chrispmartha]

SpeckledJim said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

Big if in your last sentence, however I agree with your sentiment, so does the EU it seems, would be kind of Ironic if they secure a good trade deal and we don't

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-austr...

[Helicopter123]

SpeckledJim said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

How many Visas do you think Australian, China, India, Canada and so on will demand in exchange for any Free Trade Deal?

[bodhi]

Piha said:

bodhi said:

Piha said:

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

I find it beyond parody that a trade union can't see the problem with taking "No Deal" off the table. Imagine they were negotiating for better pay/conditions, and took strike action off the table.

How successful would they be then?

Well I guess that the present tory government having shown themselves to be such good negotiators, that everyone should just let them get on with it then, I mean what could possibly go wrong...?

And didn't the PM ask the Unions into No10 to plead for help?

Kind of shows what a daft suggestion it is - even the most incompetent negotiation team in the history of politics can see how much that would shoot us in the foot and haven't gone there.

[CaptainSlow]

I'd be happy with a FMOL deal with Australia and Canada.

[Tankrizzo]

Piha said:

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

Yeah, that Len McCluskey has certainly told everyone to rule out no deal.

Oh, wait.....

[Russian Troll Bot]

People's Vote MPs hold a press conference confirming they will not be tabling an amendment for a second vote, which wasn't even sanctioned by the People's Vote.

https://order-order.com/2019/01/24/peoples-vote-pr...


But whilst they can't seem to agree on what day it is, they definitely know what's best for the country.

[SpeckledJim]

CaptainSlow said:

I'd be happy with a FMOL deal with Australia and Canada.

So would I. I'd think it would be, approximately, in balance.

[SpeckledJim]

chrispmartha said:

SpeckledJim said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

Big if in your last sentence, however I agree with your sentiment, so does the EU it seems, would be kind of Ironic if they secure a good trade deal and we don't

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-austr...

It would, but I can't think why they might want a deal with the UK via the EU, but not want one directly between us?

So I think your IF is bigger than mine?

[SpeckledJim]

Helicopter123 said:

SpeckledJim said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

How many Visas do you think Australian, China, India, Canada and so on will demand in exchange for any Free Trade Deal?

I don't know either, and it's not part of the point I was making about, very specifically, Australia.

I think in your excitement to counter any and every point you may have mistaken me for a racist. Sorry about that.

[SeeFive]

bodhi said:

Piha said:

bodhi said:

Piha said:

I find it utterly beyond parody that even Union leaders are telling a tory PM to stop dicking about and start thinking about business and jobs. Well said Frances, well said indeed.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46981834

I find it beyond parody that a trade union can't see the problem with taking "No Deal" off the table. Imagine they were negotiating for better pay/conditions, and took strike action off the table.

How successful would they be then?

Well I guess that the present tory government having shown themselves to be such good negotiators, that everyone should just let them get on with it then, I mean what could possibly go wrong...?

And didn't the PM ask the Unions into No10 to plead for help?

Kind of shows what a daft suggestion it is - even the most incompetent negotiation team in the history of politics can see how much that would shoot us in the foot and haven't gone there.

Sounds to me that the PM believes from the vote and subsequent discussions with those that are willing to be part of them that the main thing stopping the deal getting through Parliament is the backstop - maybe specifically the lack of a time limit on it.

So she seems to be going frontal with the EU on that, hoping that in fullness of time the usual EU brinkmanship will deliver a result in her favour IF they fear a no deal scenario would be worse.

Well that is the only way I can see the current position being supported by any sort of good or bad negotiation logic. Obviously being too far away from the actual conversations makes it quite difficult to pass judgement on that strategy...

[bodhi]

SeeFive said:

Sounds to me that the PM believes from the vote and subsequent discussions with those that are willing to be part of them that the main thing stopping the deal getting through Parliament is the backstop - maybe specifically the lack of a time limit on it.

So she seems to be going frontal with the EU on that, hoping that in fullness of time the usual EU brinkmanship will deliver a result in her favour IF they fear a no deal scenario would be worse.

Well that is the only way I can see the current position being supported by any sort of good or bad negotiation logic. Obviously being too far away from the actual conversations makes it quite difficult to pass judgement on that strategy...

I can definitely see the oppoisition to the backstop - the EU don't seem to be able to make up their mind if Ireland needs a hard border or not (today it does, probably in France, tomorrow - who knows) which wouldn't entirely cause me to trust them that the backstop will ever end.

[don'tbesilly]

Russian Troll Bot said:

People's Vote MPs hold a press conference confirming they will not be tabling an amendment for a second vote, which wasn't even sanctioned by the People's Vote.

https://order-order.com/2019/01/24/peoples-vote-pr...


But whilst they can't seem to agree on what day it is, they definitely know what's best for the country.

All is not well between the Judean People’s Vote and the People’s Vote of Judea…

[deadslow]

Russian Troll Bot said:

But whilst they can't seem to agree on what day it is, they definitely know what's best for the country.

the cornerstone of Tory government policy-making

[chrispmartha]

SpeckledJim said:

chrispmartha said:

SpeckledJim said:

ATG said:

Digga said:

ATG said:

EU membership doesn't hinder you from trading internationally.

They aren't stopped, but they are hindered to the extend that the UK can only deal with anywhere in the RoW under trade deals negotiated by the EU.

And the extent of that hindrance is ... ? I know, why don't we ask UK manufacturers? Oh, they've already answered that one over and over and over again.

The absence of an EU - Australia trade deal DOES hinder our trade. Anything over about £500 gets clobbered for import duties and reduces the amount the Aussies spend with us.

Outside the EU, if we can do a deal with Australia, then that will certainly be a help to our international trade. Just an example from my experience.

Big if in your last sentence, however I agree with your sentiment, so does the EU it seems, would be kind of Ironic if they secure a good trade deal and we don't

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/eu-austr...

It would, but I can't think why they might want a deal with the UK via the EU, but not want one directly between us?

So I think your IF is bigger than mine?

Maybe, but I didn't say they wouldn't want to deal with us I said if we didn't get as good deal as the EU, and if (that's an none existent if) we were staying in the EU the negations for a trade deal would be already underway for us.