Europe heading into recession
Discussion
Digga said:
As an anecdotal aside, I will be extremely interested to see the UK 2019 q4 figures once they are released. My intuitive guess is that:
Furthermore, only #2 of the above has any definitive point of resolution and, even then, unless it is a clear Tory win, is by no means the end of that uncertainty.
I don't see how the weather can be held up as an excuse, really. OK there have been a few floods - but isn't that every year.- Weather
- Election
- Continued Brexit uncertainty
Furthermore, only #2 of the above has any definitive point of resolution and, even then, unless it is a clear Tory win, is by no means the end of that uncertainty.
It's going to be bouncing off recession - but we don't quite have the Financial Stability issues the Eurozone has - their situation is more more complex. EC has again issued a warning to most of the block as their 2020 spending plans are at risk of "non-compliance". All bar Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Austria and Greece are at risk of non-compliance.
I think its representative of a broader problem; that reliance on MP has run it's course and we need more fiscal intervention into economies. If you are going to borrow to do that - it MUST be incumbent on governments to cut all possible wastage. On that score we are all largely in the same boat.
stongle said:
I don't see how the weather can be held up as an excuse, really. OK there have been a few floods - but isn't that every year.
The floods came on the back of a pretty wet year in general. Underground lakes and aquifers were full and the ground became saturated fast. Many areas in the Midlands have had anything from 100% to 200% of rainfall in October, followed by as much already in November. One farmer in Lincolnshire reckoned it was two months since his tractors had turned a wheel.Huge areas are either under water or too wet to work for construction or agriculture. It's going to have significant effect.
ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
Edited by Digga on Wednesday 20th November 12:15
Digga said:
The floods came on the back of a pretty wet year in general. Underground lakes and aquifers were full and the ground became saturated fast. Many areas in the Midlands have had anything from 100% to 200% of rainfall in October, followed by as much already in November. One farmer in Lincolnshire reckoned it was two months since his tractors had turned a wheel.
ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
Consider me schooled.ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
stongle said:
Digga said:
The floods came on the back of a pretty wet year in general. Underground lakes and aquifers were full and the ground became saturated fast. Many areas in the Midlands have had anything from 100% to 200% of rainfall in October, followed by as much already in November. One farmer in Lincolnshire reckoned it was two months since his tractors had turned a wheel.
ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
Consider me schooled.ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
If you live in a city, or especially one in any of the lighter coloured areas of the maps (so definitely not Worcester!), you might be forgiven for not knowing. Everywhere else, it's wellies on and up periscopes!
Digga said:
stongle said:
Digga said:
The floods came on the back of a pretty wet year in general. Underground lakes and aquifers were full and the ground became saturated fast. Many areas in the Midlands have had anything from 100% to 200% of rainfall in October, followed by as much already in November. One farmer in Lincolnshire reckoned it was two months since his tractors had turned a wheel.
ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
Consider me schooled.ETA apparently retail is on its arse. I have 101 better things to do than to go shopping for the sake of it - as a 'thing' in and of itself - but apparently, those who do, do not like the rain.
If you live in a city, or especially one in any of the lighter coloured areas of the maps (so definitely not Worcester!), you might be forgiven for not knowing. Everywhere else, it's wellies on and up periscopes!
Digga said:
Digga said:
The geology is fascinating,
If you look at the way rain sweeps in (predominantly) from the Atlantic, that has a pattern too, but I can assure you actual rainfall figures in many areas are anything from 125 to 200% of the norm.
Sorry, that’s of course correct. Just the pic shows the storage, so it makes sense that is linked to geology as some will be able to absorb a lot more water than some other rocks. But then you have topography (lots of mountains have little difference in storage as it’lll just run off no matter the amount - although that is also partly geology driven) plus where the rain has actually fallen having a big impact too. If you look at the way rain sweeps in (predominantly) from the Atlantic, that has a pattern too, but I can assure you actual rainfall figures in many areas are anything from 125 to 200% of the norm.
But I guess this is way off topic,
NRS said:
Digga said:
The geology is fascinating,
If you look at the way rain sweeps in (predominantly) from the Atlantic, that has a pattern too, but I can assure you actual rainfall figures in many areas are anything from 125 to 200% of the norm.
Sorry, that’s of course correct. Just the pic shows the storage, so it makes sense that is linked to geology as some will be able to absorb a lot more water than some other rocks. But then you have topography (lots of mountains have little difference in storage as it’lll just run off no matter the amount - although that is also partly geology driven) plus where the rain has actually fallen having a big impact too. If you look at the way rain sweeps in (predominantly) from the Atlantic, that has a pattern too, but I can assure you actual rainfall figures in many areas are anything from 125 to 200% of the norm.
But I guess this is way off topic,
andy_s said:
Andrew Neil
@afneil
The latest UK GDP figures in context. Growth between Q4 2018 and Q4 2019:
US +2.3%
Canada +1.7% (Q3)
Japan +1.7% (Q3)
UK +1.1%
Eurozone +1%
France +0.8%
Germany 0.5% (Q3)
Italy 0.0%
So we grew 1.1% while the danger of a Corbyn government around with more dithering on Brexit was loaming over the country and still beat all of the eurozone combined impressive. And people say the uk is finished the next few quarters will be extremely interesting@afneil
The latest UK GDP figures in context. Growth between Q4 2018 and Q4 2019:
US +2.3%
Canada +1.7% (Q3)
Japan +1.7% (Q3)
UK +1.1%
Eurozone +1%
France +0.8%
Germany 0.5% (Q3)
Italy 0.0%
MG CHRIS said:
So we grew 1.1% while the danger of a Corbyn government around with more dithering on Brexit was loaming over the country and still beat all of the eurozone combined impressive. And people say the uk is finished the next few quarters will be extremely interesting
Corbyn had zero impact on business investment. Should we zone the UK to see which areas create the growth and pillory the residents of the areas that fall behind. We will know then the areas we should abandon, as we have already set a precedent in this regard.
Nickgnome said:
Corbyn had zero impact on business investment.
Should we zone the UK to see which areas create the growth and pillory the residents of the areas that fall behind. We will know then the areas we should abandon, as we have already set a precedent in this regard.
Eh? which is the opposite of the current government policy or in BJ speak called "level-up".Should we zone the UK to see which areas create the growth and pillory the residents of the areas that fall behind. We will know then the areas we should abandon, as we have already set a precedent in this regard.
You are posting years out of date.
gizlaroc said:
Nickgnome said:
Corbyn had zero impact on business investment.
That is absolute BS. I sit on a commercial forum of a professional body and we dedicated a whole meeting about the biggest business risk to our sector about 9 months ago. The Bank of England and many large companies attended.
The risk was Corbyn. Brexit came second by a country mile.
stongle said:
Nickgnome said:
Corbyn had zero impact on business investment.
Should we zone the UK to see which areas create the growth and pillory the residents of the areas that fall behind. We will know then the areas we should abandon, as we have already set a precedent in this regard.
Eh? which is the opposite of the current government policy or in BJ speak called "level-up".Should we zone the UK to see which areas create the growth and pillory the residents of the areas that fall behind. We will know then the areas we should abandon, as we have already set a precedent in this regard.
You are posting years out of date.
Did any sensible Board consider there was realistic chance of a Corbyn government?
I suppose we could be on the revisionist history that companies that delayed investment was nothing to with Brexit but the risk of a Corbyn government.
I think you should have twigged the second para just may have been a bit tongue in cheek.
I made no mention of BJ but am actually quite pleased with some of his stated plans.
Nickgnome said:
You are making no sense.
Did any sensible Board consider there was realistic chance of a Corbyn government?
I can assure you that the Chief Execs of many major companies in your own old industry spent some considerable time considering the dangers of Mr Corbyn, and that many developments and business decisions were delayed as a result.Did any sensible Board consider there was realistic chance of a Corbyn government?
loafer123 said:
gizlaroc said:
Nickgnome said:
Corbyn had zero impact on business investment.
That is absolute BS. I sit on a commercial forum of a professional body and we dedicated a whole meeting about the biggest business risk to our sector about 9 months ago. The Bank of England and many large companies attended.
The risk was Corbyn. Brexit came second by a country mile.
How exactly does one sit on a forum?
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