Europe heading into recession

[stongle]

Trump is currently doing his conkers on twitter right now. He's laid into Powell on limp wristed Fed response and ordering US firms to look atvalternatives to China for goods. More later today he promises.

Stocks tank, Treasuries rally.

Not specific to Europe, but when China and US sneeze we might catch the flu.

[loafer123]

Art0ir said:

Please do, very interested to see if you can see any red flags. They say exports are up by 10% and the IT sector grew by a whopping 21%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth-annual

Shows current annual level of 6.3%.

[Art0ir]

loafer123 said:

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/gdp-growth-an...

Shows current annual level of 6.3%.

Figures before revision perhaps? If you look at the source listed on the graph it's from the same CSO Ireland.

Even at the old figure, Ireland has managed to outperform the rest of the Eurozone every year since 2014.

GDP per capita also approaching double that of the UK and just behind Norway and Switzerland (World Bank figures)

Edited by Art0ir on Friday 23 August 18:28

[stongle]

Art0ir said:

Figures before revision perhaps? If you look at the source listed on the graph it's from the same CSO Ireland.

Even at the old figure, Ireland has managed to outperform the rest of the Eurozone every year since 2014.

GDP per capita also approaching double that of the UK and just behind Norway and Switzerland (World Bank figures)

Edited by Art0ir on Friday 23 August 18:28

I'm intriques, not doubting the numbers - but its suspiciously tax haven like. I'd expect Netherlands in there next year.

[Earthdweller]

Art0ir said:

Ireland managed 8.2% for 2018 and and 2.4% for Q1 2019 - up 6.3% compared with Q1 2018.

Things are booming down there honestly. I was on a course in Dublin at the beginning of the week and it's like the Celtic Tiger all over again only they've managed to really birth a strong and healthy IT services industry. Corp tax rate is obviously the driver but they're actually building something of substance this time instead of the property bubble that led the way at the turn of the millenium.

I was talking to someone in the building game in Dublin this week.

He said he’s never seen as many cranes and once they come down they won’t be going back up

Property prices are falling and there isn’t the people buying all the stuff being built ... his words were that what is coming will make 2008 seem like a dream

He contracts machines to builders and he said all the signs are the same as before the last crash .. not getting paid .. people saying they are good for the money but not producing it etc

[skwdenyer]

Earthdweller said:

I was talking to someone in the building game in Dublin this week.

He said he’s never seen as many cranes and once they come down they won’t be going back up

Property prices are falling and there isn’t the people buying all the stuff being built ... his words were that what is coming will make 2008 seem like a dream

He contracts machines to builders and he said all the signs are the same as before the last crash .. not getting paid .. people saying they are good for the money but not producing it etc

The great thing about Ireland is the seeming ability of the Irish to up sticks and move on - often to the USA.

When I was in Dublin 15 years ago, 2/3 of the population were under 30. Why? Because in the previous downturn so many had left the country believing prosperity would never return.

That happened again after the GFC. It has happened before. It will happen again.

The trick seems to be to buy Irish assets during the inevitable crash and just wait for the next youthful boom

[Earthdweller]

skwdenyer said:

The great thing about Ireland is the seeming ability of the Irish to up sticks and move on - often to the USA.

When I was in Dublin 15 years ago, 2/3 of the population were under 30. Why? Because in the previous downturn so many had left the country believing prosperity would never return.

That happened again after the GFC. It has happened before. It will happen again.

The trick seems to be to buy Irish assets during the inevitable crash and just wait for the next youthful boom

Absolutely, there are some very astute people who have made an absolute killing out of the last crash

The Comer brothers from Galway being an example
https://connachttribune.ie/comer-brothers-flip-dub...

[Murph7355]

stongle said:

I'm intriques, not doubting the numbers - but its suspiciously tax haven like. I'd expect Netherlands in there next year.

Let's see what happens to it once the EU start getting narky about Irish taxation

[skwdenyer]

egomeister said:

stongle said:

No one is banning cash. Ever. In fact, the number of $100 bills in circulation passed $1 bills in 2018 or the first time. Most of these are being held outside the US.

Its almost certain that negative rates are coming on bank deposits. They already exist in Denmark on HNWI, and in Switzerland; anyone with 500k is paying 0.6% to depot their cash. Anyone with a pension fund is also indirectly supporting negative rates - the $16.5trillion of <0 yield debt haws to go somewhere.

We've run into a system where Monetary Policy and tighter financial regulation (resiliance and less fraud etc), and paradoxical and working against each other. Maybe the Greeks did have it right with their barter based economy (outside Athens), they should just never have (been allowed) joined the Euro.

I don't think cash will be banned any time soon, but the governments of the world have the power to make it sufficiently awkward and expensive to use that it might as well be. Deep negative rates depend on it!

I think cash *should* be banned, however. Because the cat is firmly out of the bag as to quite how easy it is to avoid taxation on it.

[YankeePorker]

skwdenyer said:

I think cash *should* be banned, however. Because the cat is firmly out of the bag as to quite how easy it is to avoid taxation on it.

That’s where the French state is too. Like all good socialists it upsets them greatly that their high taxes are being body swerved by a black, cash economy. So they make laws to try to limit its usefulness - car dealers can’t take more than 2000€ in cash on vehicle transactions, ID needed if you exchange more than 1000€ at a bureau de change, etc. Deposit too much cash in your bank and the banker is obliged to tell “le fisc” who will come and investigate you.

Whereas the Germans allow much more freedom. They are the ones that pushed for the minting of the 500€ note and cash is still king in vehicle sales. When you try to use a 500€ note in France they look at you like you’re some kind of bad citizen.

Moving to the USA from France was an eye opener. It seems that the Fed accept that the cash economy is essential to allow the little service people to survive, and don’t worry about it too much because they know that they’ll get it back when the $$$ get spent, so no real paranoia about controlling it. I think this attitude works better myself.

[s2art]

YankeePorker said:

skwdenyer said:

I think cash *should* be banned, however. Because the cat is firmly out of the bag as to quite how easy it is to avoid taxation on it.

That’s where the French state is too. Like all good socialists it upsets them greatly that their high taxes are being body swerved by a black, cash economy. So they make laws to try to limit its usefulness - car dealers can’t take more than 2000€ in cash on vehicle transactions, ID needed if you exchange more than 1000€ at a bureau de change, etc. Deposit too much cash in your bank and the banker is obliged to tell “le fisc” who will come and investigate you.

.

Do the French not just change their buying pattern to avoid much of that i.e go buy the car in Germany or Belgium?

[gizlaroc]

Friends of ours moved over to France, they were down new Bergerac, they bought an old Barn and did a conversion.
Obviously there was lots of constant outgoings with builders, decorators, buying everything needed for a new 4 bed home when starting from scratch.

They got pulled into the bank, had a 3 hour interview with 4 people sat the other side of the bank and the outcome was they were limited to €500 a day spend.
This delayed the build terribly, by months, but there was nothing they could do.

Another mate who lives in Beaune, but works in Switzerland, said when he decided to work more from home and set up a French bank account he applied for a credit card. This caused the bank to hold a meeting and he had to have an interview to see why a credit card was needed.
All very strange.

[skwdenyer]

YankeePorker said:

skwdenyer said:

I think cash *should* be banned, however. Because the cat is firmly out of the bag as to quite how easy it is to avoid taxation on it.

That’s where the French state is too. Like all good socialists it upsets them greatly that their high taxes are being body swerved by a black, cash economy. So they make laws to try to limit its usefulness - car dealers can’t take more than 2000€ in cash on vehicle transactions, ID needed if you exchange more than 1000€ at a bureau de change, etc. Deposit too much cash in your bank and the banker is obliged to tell “le fisc” who will come and investigate you.

Whereas the Germans allow much more freedom. They are the ones that pushed for the minting of the 500€ note and cash is still king in vehicle sales. When you try to use a 500€ note in France they look at you like you’re some kind of bad citizen.

Moving to the USA from France was an eye opener. It seems that the Fed accept that the cash economy is essential to allow the little service people to survive, and don’t worry about it too much because they know that they’ll get it back when the $$$ get spent, so no real paranoia about controlling it. I think this attitude works better myself.

But these are “road to Dublin” problems - we are starting from “here” and not “there.” We can’t swap our population for the Germans, so we have to work with what we’ve got.

And what we’ve got is a vast amount of tax evasion.

We also have a lack of hope - if people give up in the idea if buying a house, say, it is in their interests to minimise their income...

[egomeister]

skwdenyer said:

egomeister said:

stongle said:

No one is banning cash. Ever. In fact, the number of $100 bills in circulation passed $1 bills in 2018 or the first time. Most of these are being held outside the US.

Its almost certain that negative rates are coming on bank deposits. They already exist in Denmark on HNWI, and in Switzerland; anyone with 500k is paying 0.6% to depot their cash. Anyone with a pension fund is also indirectly supporting negative rates - the $16.5trillion of <0 yield debt haws to go somewhere.

We've run into a system where Monetary Policy and tighter financial regulation (resiliance and less fraud etc), and paradoxical and working against each other. Maybe the Greeks did have it right with their barter based economy (outside Athens), they should just never have (been allowed) joined the Euro.

I don't think cash will be banned any time soon, but the governments of the world have the power to make it sufficiently awkward and expensive to use that it might as well be. Deep negative rates depend on it!

I think cash *should* be banned, however. Because the cat is firmly out of the bag as to quite how easy it is to avoid taxation on it.

I don't want to live in a world where there is an audit trail for every single transaction a person makes. If some tax evasion is the price of that, so be it.

[YankeePorker]

egomeister said:

I don't want to live in a world where there is an audit trail for every single transaction a person makes. If some tax evasion is the price of that, so be it.

Agree with you. As I said before, I use cash as much as possible to help it “live”.

My one regret is that I wish that retailers would openly give discounts for cash payments, as they avoid the Amex/Visa/MC charges. No doubt they would be sanctioned by the card companies if they did, a cartel defending its interests.

[s2art]

YankeePorker said:

My one regret is that I wish that retailers would openly give discounts for cash payments, as they avoid the Amex/Visa/MC charges. No doubt they would be sanctioned by the card companies if they did, a cartel defending its interests.

I think (not sure) that since the law changed on credit card surcharges, that would be illegal as it could be interpreted as a surcharge on the card.

[skwdenyer]

YankeePorker said:

egomeister said:

I don't want to live in a world where there is an audit trail for every single transaction a person makes. If some tax evasion is the price of that, so be it.

Agree with you. As I said before, I use cash as much as possible to help it “live”.

My one regret is that I wish that retailers would openly give discounts for cash payments, as they avoid the Amex/Visa/MC charges. No doubt they would be sanctioned by the card companies if they did, a cartel defending its interests.

(1) it is illegal to charge more for a card payment, ergo it is illegal to charge less for cash

(2) any legitimate business spends at least as much as the card fee in cash handling

[Gecko1978]

the state does need funds to run but when the state sees your money as it's own then we have a problem. We live to better our own lives as individuals which as a dividend makes the world better I.e. we choose to be economically active spend money on a wide range of things we want allowing business to flourish an wealth to be created.

The state has no such desire only to control and while in some aspects thst is great (education by controlling what a GCSE is etc, licencing doctors and defence) in other cases it gets it wrong. Promotion of multi cultural ideas and pc values (not letting people just be kind to every one they meet etc), global warming alarmism, yes we should use all resources more efficiently but when it's driven by tax an banning things an not subsidising better options (public transport is not that option).

There is a balance to be had but when it comes to money you earn then really the state should look to extract the minimum at source an make tax more consumption based.

[YankeePorker]

skwdenyer said:

(2) any legitimate business spends at least as much as the card fee in cash handling

Fair comment, I suppose the emphasis has to be on the “legitimate” bit! I know a few cafes here in Miami that operate their businesses on a cash only basis - if dealing in cash cost them the same as paying 5% to Amex on each transaction surely they would taking card payments? Anyway, this is a thread digression.

[anonymous-user]

It's very common when visiting the nurburgring to eat and drink at places that only accept cash, some hotels only take cash too.