Light aircraft disappears with two people on board...

Light aircraft disappears with two people on board...

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Discussion

XCP

16,939 posts

229 months

Thursday 24th January 2019
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Am I right in thinking survival time in the sea this time of year is measured in terms of minutes?

Pan Pan Pan

9,932 posts

112 months

Thursday 24th January 2019
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XCP said:
Am I right in thinking survival time in the sea this time of year is measured in terms of minutes?
You would be right and even this assumes that they somehow survived the impact with the surface.

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Thursday 24th January 2019
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XCP said:
Am I right in thinking survival time in the sea this time of year is measured in terms of minutes?
Yes, and even in the height of summer it's usually not that great in UK waters. I was told years ago that in summer you might expect to last about 40 minutes, which is about the time it's likely to take a rescue helicopter to reach your last reported position. Then they have to spot you. Immersion suits help, but you really need to be in a life raft.

mcelliott

8,677 posts

182 months

Thursday 24th January 2019
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XCP said:
Am I right in thinking survival time in the sea this time of year is measured in terms of minutes?
Probably once you factor in shock and not being dressed in suitable clothing, and also it being pitch black with a big chop on the sea and a raging current.

ecsrobin

17,140 posts

166 months

Friday 25th January 2019
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Dr Jekyll said:
XCP said:
Am I right in thinking survival time in the sea this time of year is measured in terms of minutes?
Yes, and even in the height of summer it's usually not that great in UK waters. I was told years ago that in summer you might expect to last about 40 minutes, which is about the time it's likely to take a rescue helicopter to reach your last reported position. Then they have to spot you. Immersion suits help, but you really need to be in a life raft.
Sea temp around jersey is 9degrees currently. A person in normal clothing could survive for up to 14 hours.

Vaud

50,613 posts

156 months

Friday 25th January 2019
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ecsrobin said:
Sea temp around jersey is 9degrees currently. A person in normal clothing could survive for up to 14 hours.
Much less I'm afraid. No chance for 14 hours in the water.

http://www.ussartf.org/cold_water_survival.htm

ecsrobin

17,140 posts

166 months

Friday 25th January 2019
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Vaud said:
ecsrobin said:
Sea temp around jersey is 9degrees currently. A person in normal clothing could survive for up to 14 hours.
Much less I'm afraid. No chance for 14 hours in the water.

http://www.ussartf.org/cold_water_survival.htm
That is expected not maximum survival.

14 hours is from the international aeronautical maritime search and rescue manual 2016 based on data from previous scenarios from UK and US statistics as published by the international maritime organization.

14 hours is based on normal clothing and maximum survivability. Being slim (footballer) will reduce the time along with trying to swim plus strong currents.

Vaud

50,613 posts

156 months

Friday 25th January 2019
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ecsrobin said:
That is expected not maximum survival.

14 hours is from the international aeronautical maritime search and rescue manual 2016 based on data from previous scenarios from UK and US statistics as published by the international maritime organization.

14 hours is based on normal clothing and maximum survivability. Being slim (footballer) will reduce the time along with trying to swim plus strong currents.
Fair enough. So either way, he is no longer with us.

rallycross

12,815 posts

238 months

Friday 25th January 2019
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Its a sad story, the Daily Wail is now claiming the flight was due to leave early morning and the passenger changed plans making it a night flight and the pilot and plane had to wait all day for him to be ready, could be total BS but if true is a sad twist to this story (cant expect the passenger to be aware of the risks of changing it to an evening flight).

poo at Paul's

14,153 posts

176 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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All these muppet like Marraspanner and Lionel Messy saying we should resume the search, they're fking morons and are using this to promote themselves on social media. Come on they guys, you send the Harbourmaster at Gurnsey a few million to carry on, maybe rent in a couple of planes to carry on with the fruitless search, waste your money and their time.
Muppets. Stick to what you know summat about, ie cheating and falling over like massive jessies.

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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poo at Paul's said:
Muppets. Stick to what you know summat about, ie cheating and falling over like massive jessies.
hehe

The Mad Monk

10,474 posts

118 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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Don't fly in helicopters.

If flying in fixed wing aircraft, only fly on scheduled flights.


Pan Pan Pan

9,932 posts

112 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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The Mad Monk said:
Don't fly in helicopters.

If flying in fixed wing aircraft, only fly on scheduled flights.
One of the factors about flying in any aircraft is that if something (or as is more often the case a series pf things) goes wrong they usually don't take prisoners. I have been flying fixed wing and helicopters for over 50 years, and I am still alive (I think)
If someone dies in an aircraft accident it is very often down to just plain bad luck on their part, ,
As a form of transport aircraft generally have a good track record compared to other forms of transport. (Take cars or even trains and ocean liners for instance) I would agree that a greater chance of pilot error is possible with privately flown aircraft, but pilot error is not unknown in commercial aircraft, nor even is pilot suicide.

mcelliott

8,677 posts

182 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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poo at Paul's said:
All these muppet like Marraspanner and Lionel Messy saying we should resume the search, they're fking morons and are using this to promote themselves on social media. Come on they guys, you send the Harbourmaster at Gurnsey a few million to carry on, maybe rent in a couple of planes to carry on with the fruitless search, waste your money and their time.
Muppets. Stick to what you know summat about, ie cheating and falling over like massive jessies.
Thick as mince footballers so to be expected, Sarnia air search plane flew for 3 days solid, along with the Alderney lifeboat, in very testing conditions.

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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How much for netjets from Nantes to Cardiff: shiny new jet with two pilots and all the gear

I bet £10k would just about do it

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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JPJPJP said:
How much for netjets from Nantes to Cardiff: shiny new jet with two pilots and all the gear

I bet £10k would just about do it
I had to charter a medical jet from The Algarve to Manchester and it was fully staffed - came in just over 20k.

We had a conference in Corfu and chartered from Gloucester and it was 8k return. It would out that cheap as the pilot said he would stay at the hotel with his Mrs for 3 days so we didn't have to pay for the dead leg.

In the footballing scheme of things the cost of doing it properly is fk all.

moffspeed

2,706 posts

208 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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mcelliott said:
Thick as mince footballers so to be expected, Sarnia air search plane flew for 3 days solid, along with the Alderney lifeboat, in very testing conditions.
Over harsh I reckon. There is a lot of emotion flying about here, if you are a relative or a colleague of one of these 2 guys are you likely to accept the suspension of a search when there are no answers and neither wreckage nor bodies have been found.

OK it is probably 4 days since any even vaguely-reasonable hope of survival could have been expected. However, put yourself in their place, if you were a relative or colleague of Sala would you be likely to adopt this cold, logical argument and agree to closure of a search - I think not.

Eric Mc

122,058 posts

266 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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This is PH - where it's cool to be an unsympathetic bd.

TTmonkey

20,911 posts

248 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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It’s winter, and they are dead. Probably dead within seconds of hitting the water.

To risk the lives of others in a forlorn search generated by the denial of very emotional and devastated relativs and friends is the wrong choice.

Nothing changes the fact that they are dead, and possibly still strapped in to the wreckage of the plane 600 feet below the waves.

No one should be in doubt that there is no happy ending to this story.

Eric Mc

122,058 posts

266 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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I reckon they went straight in i.e. there was no "ditching".