Light aircraft disappears with two people on board...

Light aircraft disappears with two people on board...

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BlackLabel

13,251 posts

124 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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Paris-based football agency Sport Cover - Sala was a client - have launched a gofundme campaign to raise money for a private search.


https://www.gofundme.com/f/nodejendebuscar-emilian...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-47013648

Gandahar

9,600 posts

129 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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TTmonkey said:
It’s winter, and they are dead. Probably dead within seconds of hitting the water.

To risk the lives of others in a forlorn search generated by the denial of very emotional and devastated relativs and friends is the wrong choice.

Nothing changes the fact that they are dead, and possibly still strapped in to the wreckage of the plane 600 feet below the waves.

No one should be in doubt that there is no happy ending to this story.
A good summary, though harsh, just like the waters out there.

For interest this is the US summary of how people survive in water



That's negating any injuries during a crash etc.

Unless they were wearing full immersion suits then they are dead and now it only remains to try and locate the wreckage.As an aside Argenitina is demanding a bigger search whilst they still have not located their submarine San Juan lost in 2017 with 44 people on board.

Of course if this had not been a semi famous footballer and instead Mr and Mrs Cuthbertson from 34 Poplar Drive, then nobody would have given a toss.

Such is modern day life........................


scratchchin


eharding

13,754 posts

285 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
As an aside Argenitina is demanding a bigger search whilst they still have not located their submarine San Juan lost in 2017 with 44 people on board.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/17/subm...

??

Gandahar

9,600 posts

129 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
eharding said:
Exactly, the Norwegians found it.

eharding

13,754 posts

285 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
eharding said:
Exactly, the Norwegians found it.
So I think we can assume that the Argentinians now know where it is as well?

Gandahar

9,600 posts

129 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
eharding said:
Gandahar said:
eharding said:
Exactly, the Norwegians found it.
So I think we can assume that the Argentinians now know where it is as well?
Yes, but so what? We are talking about locating not knowing where something is when someone else did that.. One thing follows another.

The first is harder by far than the latter.


ecsrobin

17,163 posts

166 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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moffspeed said:
Over harsh I reckon. There is a lot of emotion flying about here, if you are a relative or a colleague of one of these 2 guys are you likely to accept the suspension of a search when there are no answers and neither wreckage nor bodies have been found.

OK it is probably 4 days since any even vaguely-reasonable hope of survival could have been expected. However, put yourself in their place, if you were a relative or colleague of Sala would you be likely to adopt this cold, logical argument and agree to closure of a search - I think not.
What they want is a search to find bodies. That they would have to fund themselves or understand that their resting place is the ocean.

It took 50 years to find this large military aircraft in the channel Found: www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-46624382

Athlon

5,030 posts

207 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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It is a very tough time for everyone. The volunteers on the lifeboat and the guys on the sky will be feeling it as well, whatever the outcome they always want to return a loved one to the family. The lifeboat spent a long time at sea in crap conditions looking and using well practised search patterns and it will have been no fun in the air either, but using lessons from the past they must have come to the conclusion it was a lost cause or they would not have stopped.

I highly doubt any remains will be recovered from the sea. It just remains to say R.I.P. to those lost and thank you to the folk that went out to search.

Randy Winkman

16,228 posts

190 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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Did the FA really get players to wear black arm-bands this afternoon for someone who has not yet been declared dead? No wonder his family weren't happy; hence they aren't being worn in the match that's on now.

eharding

13,754 posts

285 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
quotequote all
Gandahar said:
Yes, but so what? We are talking about locating not knowing where something is when someone else did that.. One thing follows another.

The first is harder by far than the latter.
The Argentine Navy commissioned a US company to find the sub, and the search ship used by the US company was Norwegian registered. Granted, they weren't Argentine assets, but the work was done at the behest of the Argentine government. Without that impetus, the submarine would not have been found.

Anyway, the sad fact is there is now zero chance of finding any survivors from the PA-46. Whether an effort is made to find and raise the wreckage might well depend upon the various insurance companies involved wanting to establish exactly what happened, as well as the relevant national accident investigation agencies normal interest

ecsrobin said:
It took 50 years to find this large military aircraft in the channel Found: www.bbc.co.uk/news/stories-46624382
How much effort was actually put into the search though?

anonymous-user

55 months

Saturday 26th January 2019
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Eric Mc said:
This is PH - where it's cool to be an unsympathetic bd.
yes

BlackLabel

13,251 posts

124 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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Is this aviation expert correct in what he says?

“There were "alarm bells all around" the incident, aviation consultant Alastair Rosenchein told BBC Radio Wales' Good Morning Wales programme.
He said: "The one issue is whether a single-engine air craft should be flying at night, in winter, over water and with passengers. This is the real issue - it is a really bad combination."
He said despite only 1,400 of the planes being built, there was a "quite significant" number of deaths and injuries from flights involving them.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46998548

TTmonkey

20,911 posts

248 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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Eric Mc said:
I reckon they went straight in i.e. there was no "ditching".
At that time of evening , in winter, with the weather that night being awful, the pilot wouldn’t have been able to see the water before hitting it, so a ditch would have been next to impossible. Would have had to ditch it on instruments. I don’t think he had any g like the skills or experience from what’s been said about him.


Someone is to blame here for putting this footballer into a plane flown by a plumber. I’m sure that if he had known this he would not of gotten in the thing.

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
BlackLabel said:
Is this aviation expert correct in what he says?

“There were "alarm bells all around" the incident, aviation consultant Alastair Rosenchein told BBC Radio Wales' Good Morning Wales programme.
He said: "The one issue is whether a single-engine air craft should be flying at night, in winter, over water and with passengers. This is the real issue - it is a really bad combination."
He said despite only 1,400 of the planes being built, there was a "quite significant" number of deaths and injuries from flights involving them.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46998548
There is obviously a risk in flying a single engine aircraft over water, and this is exacerbated by night, winter and piston engine. But there is a definite argument that in this case there could have been additional factors in terms of pilot knowledge/experience and aircraft equipment and it's those that made the difference. It may be this is the real issue and a suitably qualified pilot with a bit of additional equipment might have made it to Cardiff with significant safety margins.

On the other hand the pilot, though apparently private not commercially qualified, was quite experienced so it seems unlikely there is some piece of knowledge that a commercial pilot would have swotted for their exams but he had somehow overlooked that would have avoided the accident.

The fact that the pilot was also a plumber is totally irrelevant.

Eric Mc

122,102 posts

266 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Icing followed by loss of control followed by plummet into the ocean with no attempt to ditch.

That's my theory.

Dr Jekyll

23,820 posts

262 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Eric Mc said:
Icing followed by loss of control followed by plummet into the ocean with no attempt to ditch.

That's my theory.
+1

Ayahuasca

27,427 posts

280 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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Dr Jekyll said:
Eric Mc said:
Icing followed by loss of control followed by plummet into the ocean with no attempt to ditch.

That's my theory.
+1
Pilot realising conditions were dangerous, turned back to Guernsey, misread altitude, hit sea and sank.

That’s my theory.

Pilot disoriented due to no visible horizon, enters a one-g descending turn, believes he is flying straight and level and instruments are misreading (they are not) until unexpectedly finds himself under water. (See Kennedy, Long Island, July 16 1999).

That’s my other theory


Pan Pan Pan

9,953 posts

112 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
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The only way I can describe how desperately cr*p flying on instruments is when `something' is wrong, (e.g The Realization that the conditions are beyond ones capabilities, / not qualified to fly on instruments,/ something wrong with the instruments, such as loss of gyro suction / something wrong with the aircraft etc) is to think what it is like for someone who has fallen from a high building, they are still alive, but know they are in dire/terminal trouble, they have an unfortunately long time to think about what is about to happen. A truly horrible situation to find oneself in. The pilot may have experienced this , but hopefully his passenger did not to such a great extent, although it did seem he was apprehensive about the flight from the off.

GT119

6,760 posts

173 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Ayahuasca said:
Dr Jekyll said:
Eric Mc said:
Icing followed by loss of control followed by plummet into the ocean with no attempt to ditch.

That's my theory.
+1
Pilot realising conditions were dangerous, turned back to Guernsey, misread altitude, hit sea and sank.

That’s my theory.

Pilot disoriented due to no visible horizon, enters a one-g descending turn, believes he is flying straight and level and instruments are misreading (they are not) until unexpectedly finds himself under water. (See Kennedy, Long Island, July 16 1999).

That’s my other theory
I think the telling bit is the WhatsApp message where the passenger stated that the plane was falling to pieces. This is most likely severe vibration due to icing on the prop and or leading edges, although it could also refer to rough running, which could also indicate ice forming in the air intake (similar to carb icing).

Given that the pilot was not attempting to fly above the weather and choose to attempt fly below it, probably to try to reduce icing, that indicates that he may not have been familiar with how to correctly use the aircraft's de-icing systems. The pilot was also unfamiliar with the ILS on the previous leg, which indicates a general lack of knowledge on type.

So icing and subsequent loss of altitude and/or control seems the most probable cause to me.

Ayahuasca

27,427 posts

280 months

Sunday 27th January 2019
quotequote all
Lst's face it there are many, many things that could have brought down the aircraft. Seagull though the windscreen? Contaminated fuel? Pilot medical emergency? Faulty altimeter? Until they raise the wreckage - which they probably won't - there is no way of knowing.

The lesson is that flying a single engined aircraft, at night, in dodgy weather, over sea, over rough sea with strong tides, whilst lacking relevant qualifications, is setting up most of the disaster dominos in a neat row. All it takes is the last, unexpected, one to fall over...