How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)
Discussion
Greg66 said:
Ran the numbers on the number of MPs wach party would have, obviously.
If Con MPs jump ship, the problem won't be that they will (continue to?) vote against the Govt on Brexit stuff. It will be that they may not vote with the Govt on anything.
There isn't anything else of importance that they are being asked to vote on right now (I would agree with "more's the pity").If Con MPs jump ship, the problem won't be that they will (continue to?) vote against the Govt on Brexit stuff. It will be that they may not vote with the Govt on anything.
The Magnificent Seven seem to be upset about the current Labour Party's anti-semitism (thumbs up, but not sure how that will impact any votes) and the current Labour Party's ideas to take us back to 1970's USSR in terms on nationalisation etc...which I don't see impacting the Tories that badly?
dan98 said:
Even when our economy tanks, masses of jobs are lost, and the UK ends up back on it's knees just like it was in the 70s, the Brexiteers will still blame Anybody but themselves while claiming their own personal victory.
Dress it up any way you want, but Brexit soft or hard is going to be a massive disaster for this country, and this is just a hint of things to come.
Yup! Dress it up any way you want, but Brexit soft or hard is going to be a massive disaster for this country, and this is just a hint of things to come.
toppstuff said:
Robertj21a said:
Thank goodness that we're now down to less than 40 days to go. Hopefully this silliness will at least reduce after 29th March.......
[Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
There will still be food in the shops, I have never believed the sky would fall in. [Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
But I DO believe that news like that from Honda will accelerate - lots of companies making cap ex decisions for the next 10-20 years. We will lose out. This is just the beginning. I firmly believe that if we leave on WTO then there will be many more like this.
They can do what they need to do on a good business reason, blame it on Brexit or Brexit uncertainty and still have a loyal UK population buying their products believing that Honda were shafted by Brexit.
Win win. Others will surely follow as you say. A great card for business to hold.
jonnyb said:
Helicopter123 said:
Roboraver said:
Now Honda is off as well but nothing to do with brexit honest guv
I'm hearing this as well.Swindon to close in 2022 with the loss of 3,500 jobs.
A devastating blow if confirmed, although thus far no confirmation.
That said, Honda were very vocal pro-remain back in 2016 so I'm guessing the work force new what they were voting for...
Except they're not. No more Honda manufacturing in Europe at all.
Hardly an endorsement of remaining in the EU...
toppstuff said:
Reckon you could plot a line of GBP falling that would precisely correlate with that graph. Increase in manufacturing is due to weakness in sterling rather than any intrinsic advantage. Our stuff is just cheap right now.
Ahhhhh. So economics do have more than one lever some times 
Digga said:
jonnyb said:
Think that might be about to change!
All last week:- F-35: UK awarded £500m contract
- Tiger Trailers: New £22m Winsford factory
- Westfield: £30m South Korean export deal
- Kohler Mira: New £20m Worcester facility
- EDGE Innovate: New £8m factory
- Rolls-Royce: Wins major orders from Emirates
toppstuff said:
Digga said:
jonnyb said:
Think that might be about to change!
All last week:- F-35: UK awarded £500m contract
- Tiger Trailers: New £22m Winsford factory
- Westfield: £30m South Korean export deal
- Kohler Mira: New £20m Worcester facility
- EDGE Innovate: New £8m factory
- Rolls-Royce: Wins major orders from Emirates
People wedded to 'big government' seldom appreciate the aggregating effect of the diverse SME economy.
chrispmartha said:
johnxjsc1985 said:
Japan can now deal direct with Europe wit Tariffs dropping to zero so why would they produce in the UK when they can export direct from Japan blame the EU for this one not Brexit.
Erm because of Brexit we wont be part of the deal with Europe, how is the blame with the EU, take your head out of the sandconfused_buyer said:
Oh, and Civic European sales:
2007: 121,000
2018: 43,000
With or without Brexit it does seem difficult to justify a European facility making 100,000+ of a car you can only flog 40k of in Europe.
Particularly when you can just bring them in from Japan with no limitations.
Also you need to remember that when Honda opened Swindon they were bound by the JAMA agreement, which IIRC limited HUK to around 36,000 cars per year + Concerto made by Rover in Longbridge and Accord Aerodeck and Coupe from the USA, so probably around 38K units.2007: 121,000
2018: 43,000
With or without Brexit it does seem difficult to justify a European facility making 100,000+ of a car you can only flog 40k of in Europe.
Particularly when you can just bring them in from Japan with no limitations.
In that environment a UK factory made sense, now, not so much.
citizensm1th said:
just weeks ago when nissan said no more x trail we were told on here that because sunderland was such a efficient factory there was no way nissan would close it?
More brexiteer s
te proved wrong ,it is all going so well.
we can expect a lot more of this as companies divert investment to countries that actually have a market they want to sell to while we as a country get left to wither.
still in 10 years or so the EU might see us as a cheap source of labour a bit like the former eastern european nations so the future is rosey
AIUI Nissan aren't closing Sunderland. Are they?More brexiteer s
te proved wrong ,it is all going so well.we can expect a lot more of this as companies divert investment to countries that actually have a market they want to sell to while we as a country get left to wither.
still in 10 years or so the EU might see us as a cheap source of labour a bit like the former eastern european nations so the future is rosey
They are no longer going to have ANOther site build a model with falling demand. Rather they will keep building it where they are (which also happens to be the home of the manufacturer).
Not sure what any of that has to do with the EU seeing us as a cheap source of labour. It'll be rather more than 10yrs before that happens and Sunderland is re-tasked with making Dacia's I suspect.
The Honda article is more concerning IMO. But I suspect there are similar roots to it. The auto industry seems to be in a right old mess at the moment. Brexit quite possibly impacting detailed decisions, but behind an overall malaise in some quarters?
SeeFive said:
toppstuff said:
Robertj21a said:
Thank goodness that we're now down to less than 40 days to go. Hopefully this silliness will at least reduce after 29th March.......
[Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
There will still be food in the shops, I have never believed the sky would fall in. [Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
But I DO believe that news like that from Honda will accelerate - lots of companies making cap ex decisions for the next 10-20 years. We will lose out. This is just the beginning. I firmly believe that if we leave on WTO then there will be many more like this.
They can do what they need to do on a good business reason, blame it on Brexit or Brexit uncertainty and still have a loyal UK population buying their products believing that Honda were shafted by Brexit.
Win win. Others will surely follow as you say. A great card for business to hold.
Murph7355 said:
AIUI Nissan aren't closing Sunderland. Are they?
They are no longer going to have ANOther site build a model with falling demand. Rather they will keep building it where they are (which also happens to be the home of the manufacturer).
Not sure what any of that has to do with the EU seeing us as a cheap source of labour. It'll be rather more than 10yrs before that happens and Sunderland is re-tasked with making Dacia's I suspect.
The Honda article is more concerning IMO. But I suspect there are similar roots to it. The auto industry seems to be in a right old mess at the moment. Brexit quite possibly impacting detailed decisions, but behind an overall malaise in some quarters?
Agree that the x trail was going anyway, BUT the bigger worry is the future Cap Ex. Go beyond the next 5 years and it would not surprise me to see Nissan and Toyota all leaving the UK too. They are no longer going to have ANOther site build a model with falling demand. Rather they will keep building it where they are (which also happens to be the home of the manufacturer).
Not sure what any of that has to do with the EU seeing us as a cheap source of labour. It'll be rather more than 10yrs before that happens and Sunderland is re-tasked with making Dacia's I suspect.
The Honda article is more concerning IMO. But I suspect there are similar roots to it. The auto industry seems to be in a right old mess at the moment. Brexit quite possibly impacting detailed decisions, but behind an overall malaise in some quarters?
I can see zero incentive to commit future cap expenditure to a post brexit Britain and I've been saying that all along. We wont have the FTA's and we will be outside the EU SM. There is no incentive.
Murph7355 said:
citizensm1th said:
just weeks ago when nissan said no more x trail we were told on here that because sunderland was such a efficient factory there was no way nissan would close it?
More brexiteer ste proved wrong ,it is all going so well.
we can expect a lot more of this as companies divert investment to countries that actually have a market they want to sell to while we as a country get left to wither.
still in 10 years or so the EU might see us as a cheap source of labour a bit like the former eastern european nations so the future is rosey
AIUI Nissan aren't closing Sunderland. Are they?More brexiteer s
te proved wrong ,it is all going so well.we can expect a lot more of this as companies divert investment to countries that actually have a market they want to sell to while we as a country get left to wither.
still in 10 years or so the EU might see us as a cheap source of labour a bit like the former eastern european nations so the future is rosey
They are no longer going to have ANOther site build a model with falling demand. Rather they will keep building it where they are (which also happens to be the home of the manufacturer).
Not sure what any of that has to do with the EU seeing us as a cheap source of labour. It'll be rather more than 10yrs before that happens and Sunderland is re-tasked with making Dacia's I suspect.
The Honda article is more concerning IMO. But I suspect there are similar roots to it. The auto industry seems to be in a right old mess at the moment. Brexit quite possibly impacting detailed decisions, but behind an overall malaise in some quarters?
Then due to collapsing sales, it becomes apparent to Nissan that the existing Japan plant is sufficient, and no additional plant is needed.
If they had switched Sunderland off in preference to building it in France, then I think Brexit would have a case to answer. But it's not that at all.
confused_buyer said:
Oh, and Civic European sales:
2007: 121,000
2018: 43,000
With or without Brexit it does seem difficult to justify a European facility making 100,000+ of a car you can only flog 40k of in Europe.
Particularly when you can just bring them in from Japan with no limitations.
Do you have details of where they sell most of their output to?2007: 121,000
2018: 43,000
With or without Brexit it does seem difficult to justify a European facility making 100,000+ of a car you can only flog 40k of in Europe.
Particularly when you can just bring them in from Japan with no limitations.
I imagine domestic and US markets are probably the lion's share...but in the EU? My guess would be here but couldn't see any obvious numbers.
toppstuff said:
Go beyond the next 5 years and it would not surprise me to see Nissan and Toyota all leaving the UK too.
I'd agree. Japanese FDI in the UK during the 1980's was mutually convenient. We desperately needed it then and there was a good, strategic advantage for the Japanese to get involved. It is not the sort of situation which lasts forever and, fortunately, our domestic manufacturing is significantly more buoyant now.s2art said:
SeeFive said:
toppstuff said:
Robertj21a said:
Thank goodness that we're now down to less than 40 days to go. Hopefully this silliness will at least reduce after 29th March.......
[Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
There will still be food in the shops, I have never believed the sky would fall in. [Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]
But I DO believe that news like that from Honda will accelerate - lots of companies making cap ex decisions for the next 10-20 years. We will lose out. This is just the beginning. I firmly believe that if we leave on WTO then there will be many more like this.
They can do what they need to do on a good business reason, blame it on Brexit or Brexit uncertainty and still have a loyal UK population buying their products believing that Honda were shafted by Brexit.
Win win. Others will surely follow as you say. A great card for business to hold.
toppstuff said:
Agree that the x trail was going anyway, BUT the bigger worry is the future Cap Ex. Go beyond the next 5 years and it would not surprise me to see Nissan and Toyota all leaving the UK too.
I can see zero incentive to commit future cap expenditure to a post brexit Britain and I've been saying that all along. We wont have the FTA's and we will be outside the EU SM. There is no incentive.
I or out of the EU I can see both those things happening.I can see zero incentive to commit future cap expenditure to a post brexit Britain and I've been saying that all along. We wont have the FTA's and we will be outside the EU SM. There is no incentive.
As noted by speckledjim, if the investment was all being ploughed into the EU27 instead, maybe. But this is Japanese companies retrenching to Japan. Falling sales quite obviously being a big factor in this.
I also think EU knee jerk reactions on powerplants will see us all in a poor position. The balance of power on electric power plants seems to be in the Far East at present...where are we in catching that wave after signalling the demise in traditional modes?
Can the govt pull its finger out on FTAs and other incentives to mitigate? One thing is 100% for sure - inside the EU the answer is no.
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