How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[citizensm1th]

gooner1 said:

citizensm1th said:

gooner1 said:

Would you mind re opening Sunderland's Nissan plant, the chaps are getting
a tad restless just standing about. Ta.

you might want to address that to B'stardchild as he opened that door,but then you knew that

But we both know it's not an open door we're discussing, it's the metaphorical
doors you closed.

No i was discussing B'stard's thought that nissan and toyota could well follow honda, even though we were told that could not happen.

you really should try to keep up, i know it is a fast moving thread but really.

[toppstuff]

Robertj21a said:

toppstuff said:

Robertj21a said:

Thank goodness that we're now down to less than 40 days to go. Hopefully this silliness will at least reduce after 29th March.......


[Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]

There will still be food in the shops, I have never believed the sky would fall in.

But I DO believe that news like that from Honda will accelerate - lots of companies making cap ex decisions for the next 10-20 years. We will lose out. This is just the beginning. I firmly believe that if we leave on WTO then there will be many more like this.

You may believe that, largely because you're wedded to the EU ideology.

I don't believe that because I prefer our country to have the freedom to decide what we want to do.


Dale

I am not wedded to EU ideology at all. I spend a lot of time there. I know its good and bad points.

I simply believe that capital expenditure from companies in the UK will flow out because we will not have enough FTA's fast enough and we will be outside the SM of the EU. I think , on balance, it will hurt more people than leaving would help.

[Digga]

citizensm1th said:

annnndddd so it circles back to nothing to do with brexit


typical for this place, i doubt however out in the wider population it will be seen as anything other than the tories making a right balls up of brexit.

Doubtful. The majority didn't believe or trust in Project Fear in the first place.

[AC43]

Digga said:

AC43 said:

Numpties.

Quick straw poll. Has anyone heard any good news in the last two years with regards to (a) manufacturing (b) banking or (c) fishing?

No, thought not.

Yes. st loads. Even the BBC has been reporting this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42633502



The Economist: https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/02/08/brita...

You try hiring a decent welder fabricator for what they were being paid about 18 months back.

Fair enough, Happy to stand corrected.

[Allanv]

alfie2244 said:

There seems to be a consistent pattern emerging......................"It's coz of Brexit!!!!!!!!!!"..................."well it would have happened anyway but Brexit hasn't helped".

Though not knowing very much about the car / aircraft industries I readily acknowledge I could be wrong .

Back in 2004 I was contracting in Honda, and there was talk of shutting down and moving back then so nothing new.

But it must be brexit or course as it is the default answer.

[Tuna]

bhstewie said:

I think you simply have to ask yourself "Would Brexit have played any part in all of these bad things that we keep reading about?".

The answer should be obvious but people will do anything to fool themselves.

The problem here is that the whole of Europe (including the UK) are teetering on the edge of a severe recession. Some of the more sensible commentators have been predicting bad news for a while, and far worse to come. Against that backdrop, assigning any one thing to "because/despite Brexit" shows the economic insight of a whelk. That applies to both sides of the argument.

Personally, I can't see companies shuttering large facilities 'because uncertainty' - you don't shift huge capital investment around when you're "not sure" what happens next. More likely is big decisions being held back - and all the evidence is that is exactly what is happening. There is no argument for prolonging the process of leaving longer than is absolutely necessary.

As I've said from day one, if we're serious about being competitive, we have to have control over the economic levers. That doesn't stop the inevitable economic cycles, but does give us the opportunity to mitigate them. The idea that continued membership of the EU magically brings jobs to the UK is clearly not true when the whole role of the EU is to make it easier for workforces to move around the continent. Equally, as we're heading into a continent-wide recession, the idea that the previous good times were all "because EU" and the bad times are now exclusive to the UK is simply not true.

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

[Tryke3]

Tuna said:

The problem here is that the whole of Europe (including the UK) are teetering on the edge of a severe recession. Some of the more sensible commentators have been predicting bad news for a while, and far worse to come. Against that backdrop, assigning any one thing to "because/despite Brexit" shows the economic insight of a whelk. That applies to both sides of the argument.

Personally, I can't see companies shuttering large facilities 'because uncertainty' - you don't shift huge capital investment around when you're "not sure" what happens next. More likely is big decisions being held back - and all the evidence is that is exactly what is happening. There is no argument for prolonging the process of leaving longer than is absolutely necessary.

As I've said from day one, if we're serious about being competitive, we have to have control over the economic levers. That doesn't stop the inevitable economic cycles, but does give us the opportunity to mitigate them. The idea that continued membership of the EU magically brings jobs to the UK is clearly not true when the whole role of the EU is to make it easier for workforces to move around the continent. Equally, as we're heading into a continent-wide recession, the idea that the previous good times were all "because EU" and the bad times are now exclusive to the UK is simply not true.

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

You are talking out of backside

[JagLover]

toppstuff said:

I am not wedded to EU ideology at all. I spend a lot of time there. I know its good and bad points.

I simply believe that capital expenditure from companies in the UK will flow out because we will not have enough FTA's fast enough and we will be outside the SM of the EU. I think , on balance, it will hurt more people than leaving would help.

In economic terms, with May and her merry clowns in charge, this might well be correct. But the vote was about far more than economics.

[PurpleMoonlight]

s2art said:

Its likely that the reasons are mainly a) Honda is tanking in Europe, b) the Japan EU FTA kicks in in the next few years c) The Canada (Honda plant) EU FTA kicks in. Honda really doesnt need Swindon, it has surplus capacity.

The fact that there is no UK EU FTA has no relevance no doubt.

[SeeFive]

s2art said:

SeeFive said:

s2art said:

SeeFive said:

toppstuff said:

Robertj21a said:

Thank goodness that we're now down to less than 40 days to go. Hopefully this silliness will at least reduce after 29th March.......


[Yes, I know it will just be replaced by every Remainer saying everything will collapse on Day 1]

There will still be food in the shops, I have never believed the sky would fall in.

But I DO believe that news like that from Honda will accelerate - lots of companies making cap ex decisions for the next 10-20 years. We will lose out. This is just the beginning. I firmly believe that if we leave on WTO then there will be many more like this.

It’s a get out of jail free card for Honda if (big if) the initial figures I have dug our are correct.

They can do what they need to do on a good business reason, blame it on Brexit or Brexit uncertainty and still have a loyal UK population buying their products believing that Honda were shafted by Brexit.

Win win. Others will surely follow as you say. A great card for business to hold.

Except that Honda are stating that this has nothing to do with Brexit.

Not disagreeing with you, but I have only seen the usual suspects blaming Brexit on here and a Tory MP stating that, not Honda themselves. AIUI the statement will not be until tomorrow. Any pointers please?

ETA: just caught up with the thread and the links.

So Honda are one company being honest and are not blaming it on Brexit according to the leaks on the statement. It is just remainers that are doing so. I get it now.

Edited by SeeFive on Monday 18th February 16:02

Its likely that the reasons are mainly a) Honda is tanking in Europe, b) the Japan EU FTA kicks in in the next few years c) The Canada (Honda plant) EU FTA kicks in. Honda really doesnt need Swindon, it has surplus capacity.

Kinda the way I am guessing it too after a little bit of digging. Their GDP per head is far better in Japan too, can’t find figures on Canada though, but cost savings will be immense.

The announcement will be interesting reading to attempt to keep UK buyers loyal.

[Piha]

PurpleMoonlight said:

s2art said:

Its likely that the reasons are mainly a) Honda is tanking in Europe, b) the Japan EU FTA kicks in in the next few years c) The Canada (Honda plant) EU FTA kicks in. Honda really doesnt need Swindon, it has surplus capacity.

The fact that there is no UK EU FTA has no relevance no doubt.

Stopping fretting, it's gonna be fine.......

[Robertj21a]

Tryke3 said:

Tuna said:

The problem here is that the whole of Europe (including the UK) are teetering on the edge of a severe recession. Some of the more sensible commentators have been predicting bad news for a while, and far worse to come. Against that backdrop, assigning any one thing to "because/despite Brexit" shows the economic insight of a whelk. That applies to both sides of the argument.

Personally, I can't see companies shuttering large facilities 'because uncertainty' - you don't shift huge capital investment around when you're "not sure" what happens next. More likely is big decisions being held back - and all the evidence is that is exactly what is happening. There is no argument for prolonging the process of leaving longer than is absolutely necessary.

As I've said from day one, if we're serious about being competitive, we have to have control over the economic levers. That doesn't stop the inevitable economic cycles, but does give us the opportunity to mitigate them. The idea that continued membership of the EU magically brings jobs to the UK is clearly not true when the whole role of the EU is to make it easier for workforces to move around the continent. Equally, as we're heading into a continent-wide recession, the idea that the previous good times were all "because EU" and the bad times are now exclusive to the UK is simply not true.

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

You are talking out of backside

That was a helpful comment - Not.

Would you care to explain why you think that ?


.

[Digga]

Tryke3 said:

You are talking out of backside

Smart analysis there.

You could have come out with some sort of crass "your mum insult" but instead you gave us the benefit of incisive and original thinking. Well done.

[loafer123]

Digga said:

Tryke3 said:

You are talking out of backside

Smart analysis there.

You could have come out with some sort of crass "your mum insult" but instead you gave us the benefit of incisive and original thinking. Well done.

He's just annoyed because he lost 7 members today, and JC no longer looks like the god-like icon he once was.

[Digga]

loafer123 said:

Digga said:

Tryke3 said:

You are talking out of backside

Smart analysis there.

You could have come out with some sort of crass "your mum insult" but instead you gave us the benefit of incisive and original thinking. Well done.

He's just annoyed because he lost 7 members today, and JC no longer looks like the god-like icon he once was.

Was one of them his primary carer?

[s2art]

PurpleMoonlight said:

The fact that there is no UK EU FTA has no relevance no doubt.

Doubt it would make any difference. If they have overcapacity its the least profitable plants that get closed. Swindon cant compete with Honda Japan.

[AC43]

London424 said:

AC43 said:

coldsnap said:

jonnyb said:

Helicopter123 said:

Roboraver said:

Now Honda is off as well but nothing to do with brexit honest guv

I'm hearing this as well.

Swindon to close in 2022 with the loss of 3,500 jobs.

A devastating blow if confirmed, although thus far no confirmation.

That said, Honda were very vocal pro-remain back in 2016 so I'm guessing the work force new what they were voting for...

It’s all going swimmingly isn’t it!

yep Swindon voted out!

Numpties.

Quick straw poll. Has anyone heard any good news in the last two years with regards to (a) manufacturing (b) banking or (c) fishing?

No, thought not.

Plenty if you don't read Remain driven media links.

I'm not sure what "Remain driven media links are" but I suppose you're right, there is a lot of negativity out there.

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

[Piha]

Tuna said:

The problem here is that the whole of Europe (including the UK) are teetering on the edge of a severe recession. Some of the more sensible commentators have been predicting bad news for a while, and far worse to come. Against that backdrop, assigning any one thing to "because/despite Brexit" shows the economic insight of a whelk. That applies to both sides of the argument.

Personally, I can't see companies shuttering large facilities 'because uncertainty' - you don't shift huge capital investment around when you're "not sure" what happens next. More likely is big decisions being held back - and all the evidence is that is exactly what is happening. There is no argument for prolonging the process of leaving longer than is absolutely necessary.

As I've said from day one, if we're serious about being competitive, we have to have control over the economic levers. That doesn't stop the inevitable economic cycles, but does give us the opportunity to mitigate them. The idea that continued membership of the EU magically brings jobs to the UK is clearly not true when the whole role of the EU is to make it easier for workforces to move around the continent. Equally, as we're heading into a continent-wide recession, the idea that the previous good times were all "because EU" and the bad times are now exclusive to the UK is simply not true.

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

[superlightr]

Tuna said:

The idea that continued membership of the EU magically brings jobs to the UK is clearly not true when the whole role of the EU is to make it easier for workforces to move around the continent. Equally, as we're heading into a continent-wide recession, the idea that the previous good times were all "because EU" and the bad times are now exclusive to the UK is simply not true.

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

Plus - I would add that the EU is financially unstable in itself. How is it going to fund our gap of contributions? How much further is it kicking the financial can down the line of Greece/Italy/Spain. Whats going to happen when those potatoes come home to roost?


Better the UK is distancing itself away from that smelly can.

[Oilchange]

He never looked like a godlike icon before.
He only ever looked like the scruffy twit from Last of the Summer Wine...