How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[Digga]

AC43 said:

I'm not sure what "Remain driven media links are" but I suppose you're right, there is a lot of negativity out there.

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

Filter out the bullst and hype and concentrate on the raw, economic data for UK, Germany, France and Italy. Pretty much tells you what's what.

Ignore the stories that try to attribute failures or victories alike to Brexit. The truth is much more nuanced - things were never 'certain' in the first place. The world changes.

[Robertj21a]

AC43 said:

I'm not sure what "Remain driven media links are" but I suppose you're right, there is a lot of negativity out there.

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

Do you live in London or the South East ?

[SpeckledJim]

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

[SeeFive]

AC43 said:

I'm not sure what "Remain driven media links are" but I suppose you're right, there is a lot of negativity out there.

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

Are you Nutter and Budgie’s dad, or Topstuff’s son?

Seriously, you really need some balanced input or your depression will run your life into the ground. It ain’t all rosy, but it also isn’t as black as it is painted either.

[Dindoit]

Tuna said:

assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

I haven't read every post but I don't see anyone saying things are happening purely because of Brexit. Posters have said Brexit is a factor and quoted company press releases confirming Brexit is a factor but nobody is saying it's purely Brexit.

However on the flipside there absolute are Pavlov's dogs ready to pounce and categorically state that Brexit has played no part in the situation. It's nothing to do with Brexit has and will be posted again and again. It must be exhausting for them.

[Allanv]

SeeFive said:

AC43 said:

I'm not sure what "Remain driven media links are" but I suppose you're right, there is a lot of negativity out there.

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

Are you Nutter and Budgie’s dad, or Topstuff’s son?

Seriously, you really need some balanced input or your depression will run your life into the ground. It ain’t all rosy, but it also isn’t as black as it is painted either.

Apart from here where I get bored and jump in, no one anywhere I have been in the last 2 or so years have spoken the words "Brexit" to me.
I suppose we all have better things to talk about. All our friends and family asked how we voted but not why and that was it.

[SpeckledJim]

AC43 said:

And as you can no doubt tell, I struggle to see the positives. Same with everyone I talk to. Yes, I know I need to "change the people I hang out with" but it's quite hard to change my entire family, all my neighbours all the parents at my kids' two schools and pretty much everyone I work with.

There's zero chance that everyone you talk to about Brexit has the same views on it as you.

They just don't fancy having a row.

Circumstances depending, I'd happily allow you to conclude a conversation with me about Brexit with the distinct impression that I agree with your every single thought on the matter.

I don't, of course, I just don't fancy a row.

[sunbeam alpine]

In many ways, the Brexiteers on PH remind me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail -

Toyota - 'tis but a scratch...
Honda - It's just a flesh wound...

[SpeckledJim]

sunbeam alpine said:

In many ways, the Brexiteers on PH remind me of the Black Knight in Monty Python & the Holy Grail -

Toyota - 'tis but a scratch...
Honda - It's just a flesh wound...

Honda are moving back to Japan, because they have gained tariff-free access to the EU from Japan, and because their sales have completely collapsed across Europe.

They don't need EU (or UK ex EU) manufacturing facilities any more.

And I'm sure their Board Member for Marketing & PR stuck his oar in to say "If we're going to have to break this unpleasant, potentially brand-damaging news any time in the next 12 months, then now is a terrific time to do it."

[bitchstewie]

Tuna said:

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

You're doing that thing you do of claiming people said things they didn't say.

I haven't said "every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit" because that would both dumb and untrue.

I have said that uncertainty around Brexit would have played a part particularly given things like tariffs.

Porsche have asked customers to sign contracts around tariffs so that's just obvious.

[TTmonkey]

Is there any real good news out there at the moment....?

Whatever the reasons for pulling out, things are looking pretty terrible at the moment accross the car sector.

[Murph7355]

bhstewie said:

I think you simply have to ask yourself "Would Brexit have played any part in all of these bad things that we keep reading about?".

The answer should be obvious but people will do anything to fool themselves.

I think you also have to ask the question the other way...even if in the EU:

- With falling demand for the XTrail would Nissan have persisted with ANOther build site (in this instance Sunderland)?
- With the figures you've seen on here around Honda's production and EU demand, ditto?

Obviously neither is great news. But I don't see "no Brexit" saving either. That Sunderland continues, for now, to be a strategic site for Nissan should be applauded, Brexit or no Brexit as there is a heavy pattern developing.

It looks to me like we need to diversify somewhat. As Digga suggests, maybe that has happened over the last 30yrs. Is it enough? Who knows. Will Brexit help? On the face of it, maybe not. But that depends what moves our government makes next

PurpleMoonlight said:

s2art said:

Its likely that the reasons are mainly a) Honda is tanking in Europe, b) the Japan EU FTA kicks in in the next few years c) The Canada (Honda plant) EU FTA kicks in. Honda really doesnt need Swindon, it has surplus capacity.

The fact that there is no UK EU FTA has no relevance no doubt.

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

It might. But look at the numbers posted and look where their markets are right now. Why build 100k+ vehicles here for 40k demand in close proximity when the bulk is likely to be domestic market/US based.

Perhaps if we'd all bought Civics....but then I'm not sure anything's worth THAT


It seems a costly mistake not to have been heavily into electric drivetrain technology in this country. The Dysons and other UK luminaries involved in vehicles like this may have been able to capitalise and make use of all that experienced car building know how. As it is, it feels we've been caught flat footed...?

Not a Brexit thing either, as the other EU countries hardly seem ahead of that curve either from what I can see.

[toppstuff]

bhstewie said:

Tuna said:

So the childish talk of "blaming" people, or assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

You're doing that thing you do of claiming people said things they didn't say.

I haven't said "every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit" because that would both dumb and untrue.

I have said that uncertainty around Brexit would have played a part particularly given things like tariffs.

Porsche have asked customers to sign contracts around tariffs so that's just obvious.

You can't say things like "thats just obvious" as any remain-tilting argument needs evidence to support it, while "project fear"statements in support of brexit need no corroborating evidence at all. Thats just how it works here. Tuna will remind you of this shortly.

[Murph7355]

TTmonkey said:

Is there any real good news out there at the moment....?

Whatever the reasons for pulling out, things are looking pretty terrible at the moment accross the car sector.

Go back over the last few pages and as Digga notes, look at the higher level economic data (especially cf EU27). It's not all gloom, though gloom is there if you wish to look for it/have it rammed down your throat

[SeeFive]

Dindoit said:

Tuna said:

assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

I haven't read every post but I don't see anyone saying things are happening purely because of Brexit. Posters have said Brexit is a factor and quoted company press releases confirming Brexit is a factor but nobody is saying it's purely Brexit.

However on the flipside there absolute are Pavlov's dogs ready to pounce and categorically state that Brexit has played no part in the situation. It's nothing to do with Brexit has and will be posted again and again. It must be exhausting for them.

Go back to about 14:17 on this thread and read a while. That was the first moment that the Honda news hit this thread. Those of a certain persuasion jumped all over it.

Also, MSM headlines... http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Flybmi+Brexit

Yes the articles read different but the headline provides a clue to the angle of the MSM.

Pavlov’s dogs or boys crying wolf? Cuts both ways.

[SpeckledJim]

TTmonkey said:

Is there any real good news out there at the moment....?

Whatever the reasons for pulling out, things are looking pretty terrible at the moment accross the car sector.

The good news is the general up-tick in major indicators, and the solid momentum (no pun intended) of the wider economy.

The car industry, worldwide, is in real trouble, and nowhere more so than in Europe. Powered by bullst and borrowing for 10 years, out of touch with the near-term requirements of the market, and massively over-catered for the number of cars we will actually buy.

If generals always fight the last war, and politicians fight the last campaign, we're seeing car companies sleep-walk into building yesterday's car.

[slow_poke]

TTmonkey said:

Is there any real good news out there at the moment....?

Whatever the reasons for pulling out, things are looking pretty terrible at the moment accross the car sector.

Let's be hard-hearted and cold minded about this - Brexit is going to make winners and losers. The UK fishing fleets were always likely to be thrown under a bus (trawler?) in future negotiations, now it's looking like the UK automotive industry is in the line of fire too for different reasons. But the big beast the UK HAS to protect is its service industries.

[Jazzy Jag]

Back in the days of JAMA and circa 36000 HUK sales we had

CRX
Civic 3 & 4 dr
Shuttle 2 and 4wd
Prelude
Accord
Aerodeck
Legend
NSX

and Concerto 4 & 5 dr.

Hondas current range isn't that diverse or exciting which may account for poor volumes

[crankedup]

Oilchange said:

He never looked like a godlike icon before.
He only ever looked like the scruffy twit from Last of the Summer Wine...

At least the ‘twit’ from Last of Summer Wine was a very likeable character of fiction, Whereas !

[SpeckledJim]

Jazzy Jag said:

Back in the days of JAMA and circa 36000 HUK sales we had

CRX
Civic 3 & 4 dr
Shuttle 2 and 4wd
Prelude
Accord
Aerodeck
Legend
NSX

and Concerto 4 & 5 dr.

Hondas current range isn't that diverse or exciting which may account for poor volumes

I think they've lost ground in reliability as a USP. There used to be a very good reason to buy a Honda: you didn't want to break down.

But today you have to try quite hard to buy something that'll break down. Ahem, Land Rover, ahem.

Hondas still don't break down, but that's nothing so special any more, and Hyundai do approximately the same for less.