How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[Elysium]

Robertj21a said:

Elysium said:

SpeckledJim said:

Elysium said:

I think I have dealt with most of this already.

The 2016 referendum result is clear - we should leave the EU. We don't know what was in the minds of voters, but my guess is that many will have expected the process to be well managed.

As it stands, the process has been a shambles and this has left us with the two 'bad' options for leaving. Our Parliament is struggling to work out which is the least bad and has effectively rejected both in the vain hope that some other deal emerges. That is a vain hope because the EU are saying no to renegotiation and the Govt are only pretending to care about it.

The 2016 question was answered. At that point, the majority wanted to leave the EU.

The new question is do the majority still want to leave, given the options in front of us or should we call the whole thing off. We have no idea where the majority is on that.

A second vote to leave would mean that we know which route the majority prefer. It would also shut up the remainers. If a majority want out under these circumstances then efforts to remain are pointless.

If the second vote is to remain, then a lot of 2016 leave voters will be angry, but we will know that remaining is the majority view.

If MP's stand by and let no-deal happen, or 'hold their nose' and accept May's deal, then we have no way of knowing if this is what the majority actually wanted when the voted in 2016.

At this point, I have not seen a reasoned argument against a second referendum. Which is why is really does seem that those who oppose it are going along with a bad Brexit because they don't want to risk no-Brexit at all. The issue is that 'no-Brexit' could only happen if that is the will of the majority.

Arguing that a second referendum is undemocratic is in itself profoundly undemocratic.

Edit to add - I know you say 'it solves nothing' but I can't see any logical basis for that statement.

Edited by Elysium on Monday 18th February 11:18

Quick question. In the second referendum that you'd hold, would you promise to enact the result?

The first one came with that promise, so would yours?

I can see an argument for both answers, just curious which you'd go for?

We have tried to enact the first referendum result. Unfortunately in doing so we have reached an impasse where the only two options available to us have negative consequences

If everything had gone to plan, we would be leaving with an agreed deal and I would not be advocating a second vote.

As it stands we don’t know how to select the ‘least bad’ option or if the majority actually want to leave based on either arrangement.

A second vote would resolve that very quickly and we could immediately do what the majority suggest, without any further debate or obfuscation.

1. Leave with no deal
2. Leave as per withdrawal agreement
3. Revoke art 50 and remain

So yes - we should act on the result.

So, let me get this right.

You want to have an up to date assessment on what we should do, all fair and above board etc etc

To do so, you want to offer 2 options for all those who want to Leave but only 1 option for those who wish to Remain ???

Oh, yes, totally honest and fair..............


.

You don't have it right. All you need is a two stage question:

1. Leave or Remain
2. If we Leave - Mays Deal or No Deal

Seriously - you guys are jumping at shadows if you think anyone would be stupid enough to rig a second referendum by splitting the leave vote. That is conspiracy theory nonsense.

[Jazzy Jag]

SpeckledJim said:

Jazzy Jag said:

Back in the days of JAMA and circa 36000 HUK sales we had

CRX
Civic 3 & 4 dr
Shuttle 2 and 4wd
Prelude
Accord
Aerodeck
Legend
NSX

and Concerto 4 & 5 dr.

Hondas current range isn't that diverse or exciting which may account for poor volumes

I think they've lost ground in reliability as a USP. There used to be a very good reason to buy a Honda: you didn't want to break down.

But today you have to try quite hard to buy something that'll break down. Ahem, Land Rover, ahem.

Hondas still don't break down, but that's nothing so special any more, and Hyundai do approximately the same for less.

Speaking as someone who currently has both. Yes!
Wife's car- Honda
My bike- Honda
Lawn mower- Honda
Generator- Honda

[Piha]

SpeckledJim said:

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

[bitchstewie]

Piha said:

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

I don't like your negativity. Have a little more belief will you!

[Elysium]

Murph7355 said:

Elysium said:

We have tried to enact the first referendum result. Unfortunately in doing so we have reached an impasse where the only two options available to us have negative consequences....

We are in the middle of enacting the first vote, and the HoC voted through the Withdrawal Act. Like it or not, they also voted through the default position in that Act after much debate and voting.

Of course they could repeal that act....but they haven't yet (I suspect they know how dumb they will all look...possibly either way...now).

Parliament has voted against May's deal - with the biggest defeat for a Govt in history

It has also, via the Spelmen amendment, voted against no deal:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/01/caroline-spe...

The approval of the Withdrawal Act is irrelevant. We leave the EU when the notification period in article 50 expires.

The Withdrawal Act includes an Exit Day purely to align our UK legislation with the international treaties that govern our membership. It can be amended without debate by a Govt minister.

[Ridgemont]

Piha said:

SpeckledJim said:

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

Liam Fox is the man responsible for that: DfIT announced two last week (Switzerland and the US).

That US one is a biggy. It leaves approximately only 20% of our existing trade not covered by a deal once you factor in that the EU one is experiencing a little local difficulty.

[Dindoit]

SeeFive said:

Dindoit said:

Tuna said:

assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

I haven't read every post but I don't see anyone saying things are happening purely because of Brexit. Posters have said Brexit is a factor and quoted company press releases confirming Brexit is a factor but nobody is saying it's purely Brexit.

However on the flipside there absolute are Pavlov's dogs ready to pounce and categorically state that Brexit has played no part in the situation. It's nothing to do with Brexit has and will be posted again and again. It must be exhausting for them.

Go back to about 14:17 on this thread and read a while. That was the first moment that the Honda news hit this thread. Those of a certain persuasion jumped all over it.

You're going to have to help me out here. Who said it's happening purely because of Brexit? I've looked back as you suggest but can't see anything.

Conversely,

johnxjsc1985 said:

blame the EU for this one not Brexit.

JagLover said:

According to the reports the announcement if it comes will be regardless of any Brexit deal.

B'stard Child said:

No matter which way the vote had gone in 2016 it would be the same potential impact.

s2art said:

Except that Honda are stating that this has nothing to do with Brexit.

Rivenink said:

Nothing to do with Brexit.

aaron_2000 said:

Wanna just ignore the fact that this was planned before the brexit vote? The great thing about Brexit is we can blame anything on it, no matter how irrelevant. 9/11? It was Brexit. 1987 market crash? Brexit. Can't find your keys? Just blame those damn leavers.

[edh]

Ridgemont said:

Piha said:

SpeckledJim said:

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

Liam Fox is the man responsible for that: DfIT announced two last week (Switzerland and the US).

That US one is a biggy. It leaves approximately only 20% of our existing trade not covered by a deal once you factor in that the EU one is experiencing a little local difficulty.

We announced a US trade deal? really?

Or was it the Faroe Islands?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

it also says
"The UK has also signed deals with the United States, Australia and New Zealand, but these are "mutual recognition agreements" and not free trade agreements."

Of course we don't have a US - EU deal to roll over (this is all the disgraced minister Liam Fox is trying to do, and I guess 4 is "up to 40")

[citizensm1th]

Ridgemont said:

Piha said:

SpeckledJim said:

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

Liam Fox is the man responsible for that: DfIT announced two last week (Switzerland and the US).

That US one is a biggy. It leaves approximately only 20% of our existing trade not covered by a deal once you factor in that the EU one is experiencing a little local difficulty.

Unfortunately Mr Fox upset the japanese with a rather rash letter asking them to hurry up and do a deal with us.

and the us deal he signed is not a trade deal it was a The Mutual Recognition Agreement on Conformity Assessment

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-usa-agre...

it is not a FTA.

[toppstuff]

citizensm1th said:

Unfortunately Mr Fox upset the japanese with a rather rash letter asking them to hurry up and do a deal with us.

and the us deal he signed is not a trade deal it was a The Mutual Recognition Agreement on Conformity Assessment

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-usa-agre...

it is not a FTA.

Liam Fox is an utter waste of space with the negotiation ability of an otter.

He’s probably struggling because he can’t bring his friend Adam Werrity along to every meeting like he used to.

[Ridgemont]

edh said:

Ridgemont said:

Piha said:

SpeckledJim said:

Piha said:

Or in other words, Honda can guarantee tariff free access to the EU and leave the UK..... whilst Team Brexit make continued promises that they are yet to be seen to deliver on.

Unicorns indeed.

The delivery of what benefits of being out are you actually expecting whilst we are still inside?

Silly sausage.

Weren't we promised 40 or 50 trade deals before we left? Is that bone idle David Davis negotiating them?

Silly wurst.

Liam Fox is the man responsible for that: DfIT announced two last week (Switzerland and the US).

That US one is a biggy. It leaves approximately only 20% of our existing trade not covered by a deal once you factor in that the EU one is experiencing a little local difficulty.

We announced a US trade deal? really?

Or was it the Faroe Islands?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47213842

it also says
"The UK has also signed deals with the United States, Australia and New Zealand, but these are "mutual recognition agreements" and not free trade agreements."

Of course we don't have a US - EU deal to roll over (this is all the disgraced minister Liam Fox is trying to do, and I guess 4 is "up to 40")

Sigh.

Crap reporting. There is an existing MRA which is rolled over and it is important. MRA are the core of modern FTAs.

http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87149

[B'stard Child]

Dindoit said:

SeeFive said:

Dindoit said:

Tuna said:

assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

I haven't read every post but I don't see anyone saying things are happening purely because of Brexit. Posters have said Brexit is a factor and quoted company press releases confirming Brexit is a factor but nobody is saying it's purely Brexit.

However on the flipside there absolute are Pavlov's dogs ready to pounce and categorically state that Brexit has played no part in the situation. It's nothing to do with Brexit has and will be posted again and again. It must be exhausting for them.

Go back to about 14:17 on this thread and read a while. That was the first moment that the Honda news hit this thread. Those of a certain persuasion jumped all over it.

You're going to have to help me out here. Who said it's happening purely because of Brexit? I've looked back as you suggest but can't see anything

Conversely

B'stard Child said:

No matter which way the vote had gone in 2016 it would be the same potential impact.

Oi - don’t appreciate being selectively quoted without the context of the wider point I was making

The EU signed a tarriff free arrangement with Japan where tariffs reduce to zero over a period of time - you have to agree that would place a significant risk to Honda, Nissan and Toyotas plants in the UK where they were set up to avoid the tariffs by being EU based. Why on earth would manufacturers with excess capacity continue to support plants overseas without a tariff issue?

[SeeFive]

Dindoit said:

You're going to have to help me out here. Who said it's happening purely because of Brexit? I've looked back as you suggest but can't see anything.

Conversely... snip for space purposes... valid responses to remainers comments....

I helped you with the time, and now will help by suggesting you go to specsavers or perhaps pick up an irony injection from some remainers so you understand their posts a little more in line with their rhetoric.

coldsnap said:

jonnyb said:

Helicopter123 said:

Roboraver said:

Now Honda is off as well but nothing to do with brexit honest guv

I'm hearing this as well.

Swindon to close in 2022 with the loss of 3,500 jobs.

A devastating blow if confirmed, although thus far no confirmation.

That said, Honda were very vocal pro-remain back in 2016 so I'm guessing the work force new what they were voting for...

It’s all going swimmingly isn’t it!

yep Swindon voted out!

Piha said:

Roboraver said:

Now Honda is off as well but nothing to do with brexit honest guv

Obviously nothing to do with Brexit, nothing whatsoever......

mdavids said:

It's ok, Jacob, Boris and chums will be just fine, we don't need manufacturing.

Cant be arsed to do any more c&p. That is how it rolls on here. Wild, baseless statements of brexit blame on any announcement of bad news, only to be brought back to reality later with slightly more informed analysis and debate.

Let’s wait for the announcement tomorrow to see what Honda say, but is is somewhat pre-announced already.

HTH.

[SeeFive]

B'stard Child said:

Dindoit said:

SeeFive said:

Dindoit said:

Tuna said:

assuming that every economic change in the UK is purely because of Brexit is just noise.

I haven't read every post but I don't see anyone saying things are happening purely because of Brexit. Posters have said Brexit is a factor and quoted company press releases confirming Brexit is a factor but nobody is saying it's purely Brexit.

However on the flipside there absolute are Pavlov's dogs ready to pounce and categorically state that Brexit has played no part in the situation. It's nothing to do with Brexit has and will be posted again and again. It must be exhausting for them.

Go back to about 14:17 on this thread and read a while. That was the first moment that the Honda news hit this thread. Those of a certain persuasion jumped all over it.

You're going to have to help me out here. Who said it's happening purely because of Brexit? I've looked back as you suggest but can't see anything

Conversely

B'stard Child said:

No matter which way the vote had gone in 2016 it would be the same potential impact.

Oi - don’t appreciate being selectively quoted without the context of the wider point I was making

The EU signed a tarriff free arrangement with Japan where tariffs reduce to zero over a period of time - you have to agree that would place a significant risk to Honda, Nissan and Toyotas plants in the UK where they were set up to avoid the tariffs by being EU based. Why on earth would manufacturers with excess capacity continue to support plants overseas without a tariff issue?

Durr... I think the answer is “because brexit”. Wood and trees issue for some on here even after spoon feeding them.

[Dindoit]

SeeFive said:

stuff

Nobody, not even the most ardent Leaver, has said that the reason is 100% due to Brexit. To do so would be idiotic.

However several Brexiteers are stating that these factory closures and business relocations are 100% categorically nothing to with Brexit. They will not budge and admit Brexit is a factor in the decision making whatsoever.

Blame Labour. Blame May’s deal. Blame global factors. Blame diesel. Blame Remainers. Blame EU.

The refusal to accept Brexit has played any part is as predictable as it is tiresome.

[Leithen]

Look on the bright side, Wolff's talking about fleeing the country....

[surveyor]

Dindoit said:

SeeFive said:

stuff

Nobody, not even the most ardent Leaver, has said that the reason is 100% due to Brexit. To do so would be idiotic.

However several Brexiteers are stating that these factory closures and business relocations are 100% categorically nothing to with Brexit. They will not budge and admit Brexit is a factor in the decision making whatsoever.

Blame Labour. Blame May’s deal. Blame global factors. Blame diesel. Blame Remainers. Blame EU.

The refusal to accept Brexit has played any part is as predictable as it is tiresome.

A honda employee has hit the nail on the head. These closures are not about now, but about future investment. Car companies are about to invest a lot of money in their plants to ramp up for electric / hybrid vehicles. This is new investment - do you put the money in to the country whose future is uncertain including tariffs on imports and exports ,or put it elsewhere, either to your own country or to the EU where you have a block of a number of countries which trade without tariff...

Even the most ardent Brexiteer cannot ignore the affect on big international businesses.

[bitchstewie]

surveyor said:

Even the most ardent Brexiteer cannot ignore the affect on big international businesses.

I wouldn't put money on that.

[toppstuff]

surveyor said:

A honda employee has hit the nail on the head. These closures are not about now, but about future investment. Car companies are about to invest a lot of money in their plants to ramp up for electric / hybrid vehicles. This is new investment - do you put the money in to the country whose future is uncertain including tariffs on imports and exports ,or put it elsewhere, either to your own country or to the EU where you have a block of a number of countries which trade without tariff...

Even the most ardent Brexiteer cannot ignore the affect on big international businesses.

I have been arguing this for months now. The leavers just don’t get it. They blurt out “project Fear “ about the sky crashing in at the end of March and completely miss the point.

Brexit is about the longer road. It’s about the gradual decline of our largest employers as they decide over the next 5-15 years not to invest in a country with out key FTA and outside of the E.U. single market.

Honda is not leaving the UK because primarily of brexit. They aren’t. But they are also saying that the UK is not worth waiting for. Japan is saying that our efficiency is not enough. They are saying we are not going to justify future investment. THIS is the problem of brexit. It’s our kids who are going to suffer.

Do you believe Fox will deliver FTAs to make up for it ? I don’t.

[Robertj21a]

Elysium said:

Robertj21a said:

Elysium said:

SpeckledJim said:

Elysium said:

I think I have dealt with most of this already.

The 2016 referendum result is clear - we should leave the EU. We don't know what was in the minds of voters, but my guess is that many will have expected the process to be well managed.

As it stands, the process has been a shambles and this has left us with the two 'bad' options for leaving. Our Parliament is struggling to work out which is the least bad and has effectively rejected both in the vain hope that some other deal emerges. That is a vain hope because the EU are saying no to renegotiation and the Govt are only pretending to care about it.

The 2016 question was answered. At that point, the majority wanted to leave the EU.

The new question is do the majority still want to leave, given the options in front of us or should we call the whole thing off. We have no idea where the majority is on that.

A second vote to leave would mean that we know which route the majority prefer. It would also shut up the remainers. If a majority want out under these circumstances then efforts to remain are pointless.

If the second vote is to remain, then a lot of 2016 leave voters will be angry, but we will know that remaining is the majority view.

If MP's stand by and let no-deal happen, or 'hold their nose' and accept May's deal, then we have no way of knowing if this is what the majority actually wanted when the voted in 2016.

At this point, I have not seen a reasoned argument against a second referendum. Which is why is really does seem that those who oppose it are going along with a bad Brexit because they don't want to risk no-Brexit at all. The issue is that 'no-Brexit' could only happen if that is the will of the majority.

Arguing that a second referendum is undemocratic is in itself profoundly undemocratic.

Edit to add - I know you say 'it solves nothing' but I can't see any logical basis for that statement.

Edited by Elysium on Monday 18th February 11:18

Quick question. In the second referendum that you'd hold, would you promise to enact the result?

The first one came with that promise, so would yours?

I can see an argument for both answers, just curious which you'd go for?

We have tried to enact the first referendum result. Unfortunately in doing so we have reached an impasse where the only two options available to us have negative consequences

If everything had gone to plan, we would be leaving with an agreed deal and I would not be advocating a second vote.

As it stands we don’t know how to select the ‘least bad’ option or if the majority actually want to leave based on either arrangement.

A second vote would resolve that very quickly and we could immediately do what the majority suggest, without any further debate or obfuscation.

1. Leave with no deal
2. Leave as per withdrawal agreement
3. Revoke art 50 and remain

So yes - we should act on the result.

So, let me get this right.

You want to have an up to date assessment on what we should do, all fair and above board etc etc

To do so, you want to offer 2 options for all those who want to Leave but only 1 option for those who wish to Remain ???

Oh, yes, totally honest and fair..............


.

You don't have it right. All you need is a two stage question:

1. Leave or Remain
2. If we Leave - Mays Deal or No Deal

Seriously - you guys are jumping at shadows if you think anyone would be stupid enough to rig a second referendum by splitting the leave vote. That is conspiracy theory nonsense.

Not a question of jumping at shadows, more a question that you don't now say what you said only a few hours ago ?

You've now made it into a two stage question. So why did you list it (above) as 3 questions, which would split the Leave vote ?

Seems a very strange way of trying to get people to agree things.
.