How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)
Discussion
Greg66 said:
Willy Nilly said:
Has there ever been anything in British politics that has been so divisive?
Catholicism and the Protestant Reformation: more divisive (and violent). Elysium said:
Sway said:
Elysium said:
SunsetZed said:
Helicopter123 said:
Amateurish said:
A50 cannot be unilaterally postponed, only with the unanimous agreement of all other EU states.
Which of course is a formality.No-deal is not in their interest and it's already apparent that there is not enough time to get a deal into legislation:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1080475/Brexit-n...
I can't imagine there will be any conditions (other than a new timescale) as we would never agree to them.
I am pretty sure we only have to ask.
Do we stand candidates and send MEPs? If not, why as we'd still be members.
If we do, what happens with their ability to vote for things relating to after we'd have "theoretically" left? Do they get excluded, even though it's just as possible that the UK would still be members once the precedents of extensions has been demonstrated?
How about the then likelihood that any agreed transition period would roll into the next EU budgetary cycle? That completely changes the game for the "€39Bn"...
It really isn't straightforward nor without consequence (perhaps unintended) to extend. The timetable is what it is for very good reason - it's the maximum duration possible whilst avoiding these things.
I think we can extend until May with the euro elections being an issue. The divorce payment is also a red herring. We have been paying throughout the notice period and will continue to do so till we finally leave.
I recall very clearly immense pressure from the EU to submit Art. 50 notice.
Agree that extension to May is likely not much issue for the EU. However, it adds more uncertainty - and what does another few weeks really matter?
On the payments and budget I completely disagree. Everything, from our continuing current payments, to the "divorce payment" are rooted in maintaining our funding for spending that was part of the multi year budgetary cycle we were fully part of defining (plus some for liabilities generated by our own representatives such as pensions).
That's why the "transition" wasn't two years. It was until the end of the budgetary cycle. Extend - and we'll be on the hook for spending commitments we will not be party to deciding.
Everything from the "membership fee" calculation, to levels of spending on EU projects, to percentages of VAT and Import Tariffs passed over - all are part of a specific cycle. That's handing a blank cheque to the EU - and do you really think they'd be stupid enough not to take advantage of it?
That is electoral suicide - and opens up even more potential for a reactionary and pissed off electorate to do stupid things if a charismatic leader comes along to offer "an alternative".
Helicopter123 said:
Amateurish said:
A50 cannot be unilaterally postponed, only with the unanimous agreement of all other EU states.
Which of course is a formality.Triggering article 50 is a formality.
Getting all the other member states to agree to an extension and changing UK legislation to amend the withdrawal act is not a formality.
Sway said:
Elysium said:
Sway said:
Elysium said:
SunsetZed said:
Helicopter123 said:
Amateurish said:
A50 cannot be unilaterally postponed, only with the unanimous agreement of all other EU states.
Which of course is a formality.No-deal is not in their interest and it's already apparent that there is not enough time to get a deal into legislation:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1080475/Brexit-n...
I can't imagine there will be any conditions (other than a new timescale) as we would never agree to them.
I am pretty sure we only have to ask.
Do we stand candidates and send MEPs? If not, why as we'd still be members.
If we do, what happens with their ability to vote for things relating to after we'd have "theoretically" left? Do they get excluded, even though it's just as possible that the UK would still be members once the precedents of extensions has been demonstrated?
How about the then likelihood that any agreed transition period would roll into the next EU budgetary cycle? That completely changes the game for the "€39Bn"...
It really isn't straightforward nor without consequence (perhaps unintended) to extend. The timetable is what it is for very good reason - it's the maximum duration possible whilst avoiding these things.
I think we can extend until May with the euro elections being an issue. The divorce payment is also a red herring. We have been paying throughout the notice period and will continue to do so till we finally leave.
I recall very clearly immense pressure from the EU to submit Art. 50 notice.
Agree that extension to May is likely not much issue for the EU. However, it adds more uncertainty - and what does another few weeks really matter?
On the payments and budget I completely disagree. Everything, from our continuing current payments, to the "divorce payment" are rooted in maintaining our funding for spending that was part of the multi year budgetary cycle we were fully part of defining (plus some for liabilities generated by our own representatives such as pensions).
That's why the "transition" wasn't two years. It was until the end of the budgetary cycle. Extend - and we'll be on the hook for spending commitments we will not be party to deciding.
Everything from the "membership fee" calculation, to levels of spending on EU projects, to percentages of VAT and Import Tariffs passed over - all are part of a specific cycle. That's handing a blank cheque to the EU - and do you really think they'd be stupid enough not to take advantage of it?
That is electoral suicide - and opens up even more potential for a reactionary and pissed off electorate to do stupid things if a charismatic leader comes along to offer "an alternative".
If we delay leaving the transition period could just shorten so it still ends on the 31st Dec 2020
Elysium said:
This is not the ‘transition’ period. That starts after we leave and it’s largely what the €39bn is for.
If we delay leaving the transition period could just shorten so it still ends on the 31st Dec 2020
I'm well aware we're not in any transition period now. We're full members still, with full representation in Parliament. If we delay leaving the transition period could just shorten so it still ends on the 31st Dec 2020
Increasing the period of uncertainty, whilst reducing the period available for implementation of unicorns at the border doesn't sound like a prudent approach.
Oh no it couldn't get any worse Albert Steptoe to ask for forgiveness and be the white knight
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
tescorank said:
Oh no it couldn't get any worse Albert Steptoe to ask for forgiveness and be the white knight
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
The link itself implies a completely different headline. https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch - Growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit prompts unscheduled update
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
mx5nut said:
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch - Growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit prompts unscheduled update
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
What do Fitch know? They'll be sorry too.Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
mx5nut said:
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch - Growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit prompts unscheduled update
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
The currency markets look pannicked and the pound has plumeted to Euro 1.15, I guess with the further bad news predicted by some on this thread, it might decrease further - perhaps 1.16.Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
Elysium said:
Sway said:
Elysium said:
SunsetZed said:
Helicopter123 said:
Amateurish said:
A50 cannot be unilaterally postponed, only with the unanimous agreement of all other EU states.
Which of course is a formality.No-deal is not in their interest and it's already apparent that there is not enough time to get a deal into legislation:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1080475/Brexit-n...
I can't imagine there will be any conditions (other than a new timescale) as we would never agree to them.
I am pretty sure we only have to ask.
Do we stand candidates and send MEPs? If not, why as we'd still be members.
If we do, what happens with their ability to vote for things relating to after we'd have "theoretically" left? Do they get excluded, even though it's just as possible that the UK would still be members once the precedents of extensions has been demonstrated?
How about the then likelihood that any agreed transition period would roll into the next EU budgetary cycle? That completely changes the game for the "€39Bn"...
It really isn't straightforward nor without consequence (perhaps unintended) to extend. The timetable is what it is for very good reason - it's the maximum duration possible whilst avoiding these things.
I think we can extend until May with the euro elections being an issue. The divorce payment is also a red herring. We have been paying throughout the notice period and will continue to do so till we finally leave.
In terms of clauses that could come with an extension do you think there would be any? Also, hypothetically let's assume that the extension until late May is granted and we're in the same position 2 months from now, do you still think an extension would be a formality?
b
hstewie said:
hstewie said:mx5nut said:
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch - Growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit prompts unscheduled update
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
What do Fitch know? They'll be sorry too.Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
Borghetto said:
mx5nut said:
Fitch puts UK credit rating on negative watch - Growing likelihood of a no-deal Brexit prompts unscheduled update
Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
The currency markets look pannicked and the pound has plumeted to Euro 1.15, I guess with the further bad news predicted by some on this thread, it might decrease further - perhaps 1.16.Brextremists continue to make us look strong on the world stage and demonstrate all those cards we hold ready for trade negotiations with the EU and ROW.
Hold the line. Stay with me. If you find yourself alone, riding in green fields with the sun on your face, do not be troubled; for you are in Elysium, and you're already dead!
tescorank said:
Oh no it couldn't get any worse Albert Steptoe to ask for forgiveness and be the white knight
https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
If Poundland did International Trade Negotiations.........https://news.sky.com/story/jeremy-corbyn-heads-to-...
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