How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[PositronicRay]

Earthdweller said:

PositronicRay said:

Earthdweller said:

Well, I’m not convinced

My 26 year old niece, a teacher, asked me the other day what Brexit meant, as she said she doesn’t really understand it

I find that sad, that she's so uninterested in the world around her. What's her subject?

Maths and science .. she’s very interested in the world and wants to see most of it, but gets on with her life despite politicians

I suppose as long as she understands the fundamentals that's all she needs. I feel it needs explain too sometimes!

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

In 2016 you predicted Brexit would bring the UK record employment in 2019?

That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines.

I would not rush to hold this up as an example of how great things are.

[Dr Jekyll]

toppstuff said:

That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines.

Some of it is, but so what?

[Earthdweller]

PositronicRay said:

Earthdweller said:

PositronicRay said:

Earthdweller said:

Well, I’m not convinced

My 26 year old niece, a teacher, asked me the other day what Brexit meant, as she said she doesn’t really understand it

I find that sad, that she's so uninterested in the world around her. What's her subject?

Maths and science .. she’s very interested in the world and wants to see most of it, but gets on with her life despite politicians

I suppose as long as she understands the fundamentals that's all she needs. I feel it needs explain too sometimes!

She’s actually a very smart cookie with a degree and masters in some form of science thing which she then did a teaching course after

She gets on with her life despite politicians and is more concerned with travelling and experiencing life rather than sitting on Internet forums bhing about things she can’t change

Can’t understand it myself

[SpeckledJim]

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

In 2016 you predicted Brexit would bring the UK record employment in 2019?

That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines.

I would not rush to hold this up as an example of how great things are.

We didn't have those things in 2016?

I know it's difficult trying to find a way to convincingly paint record high employment as a bad thing, but keep searching. There's got to be a way!

[toppstuff]

Dr Jekyll said:

toppstuff said:

That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines.

Some of it is, but so what?

The employment numbers are being offered as a badge of success and by some as a reason why it’s all gonna be peachy. We all know it’s not that simple. The numbers are not telling the real picture. It’s fragile out there right now imo.

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

We didn't have those things in 2016?

!

I don’t have the numbers to hand but I think you’ll find the percentage of zero hours and contract deals that make the headline numbers look good is up since 2016.

[andymadmak]

Some interesting data on Zero Hours contracts here:

https://fullfact.org/economy/facts-about-zero-hour...

If I am reading it correctly, only 32% of people on ZHCs want to work more hours...

[Earthdweller]

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

We didn't have those things in 2016?

!

I don’t have the numbers to hand but I think you’ll find the percentage of zero hours and contract deals that make the headline numbers look good is up since 2016.

Actually no

It’s down considerably but hey !

903k in 16
780k in 18

https://www.statista.com/statistics/414896/employe...

[B'stard Child]

OzzyR1 said:

I can't be the only one who is wholly fed-up with this?


Every time I turn on the news, Brexit is linked to or mentioned:

A business makes a strategic decision for the future (whether good or bad for the UK market). Normally wouldn't make Page 9 but now it's headline as it might be linked to Brexit?

Any currency fluctuation: Brexit?

Immigration: Brexit?

Emigration: Brexit?

Employment: Brexit

Unemployment: Brexit?

Higher taxes: Brexit?

Lower taxes: Brexit?


Sick of the whole thing, including the way both the government and opposition are more interested in scoring points from each other than doing anything constructive.

For what its worth, I voted to remain but acknowledge and accept I was on the losing side. Not looking forward to what comes next, (particularly in the short term if we leave with no deal) but the world will keep turning.

Just wish we could get on with it, whichever way we go. Uncertainty is no good for anyone.

I agree - however both main parties are trying to please everyone and failing

They don't want a "Clean Brexit" because that would ps off those who supported "remaining in the EU"

They want a "softest of soft Brexit" but hitting enough of the major points that drove the referendum result hoping that it won't ps off those who voted to "Leave the EU"

It's an impossible position they have put themselves in.........

OzzyR1 said:

Also can't help but think of all the political items that used to feature in the daily news 2 years ago: health, welfare, pensions, military, education, debt repayment, education, transport, industry, agriculture etc etc. Hardly individually mentioned nowadays and when they do it's somehow linked to fking Brexit. I believe there is a lot of legislation being pushed through on the sly while the public are distracted, some of which would get a lot more attention and perhaps opposition in normal times.

I've had enough of it and don't think I'm alone.

You aren't alone

One of my biggest reasons (out of 11) to remain in the EU as opposed to leave was that I couldn't trust the Government (and Politicians in general) to screw it all up.

In the final decision I had to weigh up if it was worth taking the chance that they would make even a half arsed job of it and as it was a "once in a generation decision" I thought it was worth the risk........

Well that gone well so far although it's not all over yet!!!

[Robertj21a]

Zero hours contracts are very popular with some people. It's others who won't believe, or even understand, it.

.

[FiF]

AC43 said:

But when I look at Brexiteers's attitudes all I see is even angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess.

How ironic.....

You missed out the word "gammon"

But when I look at Remainers' attitudes all I see is ever angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess that the negotiations are in.

And still no reasoned examination of why they lost, despite spending massively more, even by Electoral Commission figures, despite having the full weight of Government and an extra 9 million behind it just on one leaflet, despite having the historical advantage of promoting the status quo position, despite having the advantage of being able to pull the strings of the establishment far and near, the good and the great, and the not so great, to their cause.

Clearly it hurts and still does hurt, the first time the culturally liberal "middle class" which circulates round London and the university towns had lost. Since then they've done everything possible to overturn it, force a re-run or water it down to as near status quo as possible.

Even then, when I've specifically raised the question of why the vote was lost, it wasn't just the issue of an utterly sterile and awful campaign, but why the situation even got to the stage of having a vote, you pop up, avoid the question completely and double down with more adversarial comments.

Be away with you.

[SpeckledJim]

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

We didn't have those things in 2016?

!

I don’t have the numbers to hand but I think you’ll find the percentage of zero hours and contract deals that make the headline numbers look good is up since 2016.

The 2016 Gospel according to St Gideon told us that employment was going to go down, and that that was a bad thing. We all agreed, Leaver and Remainers alike, that lower employment would indeed be bad.

Now employment has actually gone up, making St. Gideon look a bit of a mug, but the more remarkable thing is actually that employment going up turns out to be a bad thing as well.

Remarkable.

Employment Down: Bad.
Employment Up: Also bad!

Very tough gig, this politics lark.

[johnxjsc1985]

I can see Harry Hill sorting this out.
"who is the angrier Remoaners or Brexiteers......fight"

[PositronicRay]

FiF said:

AC43 said:

But when I look at Brexiteers's attitudes all I see is even angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess.

How ironic.....

You missed out the word "gammon"

But when I look at Remainers' attitudes all I see is ever angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess that the negotiations are in.

And still no reasoned examination of why they lost, despite spending massively more, even by Electoral Commission figures, despite having the full weight of Government and an extra 9 million behind it just on one leaflet, despite having the historical advantage of promoting the status quo position, despite having the advantage of being able to pull the strings of the establishment far and near, the good and the great, and the not so great, to their cause.

Clearly it hurts and still does hurt, the first time the culturally liberal "middle class" which circulates round London and the university towns had lost. Since then they've done everything possible to overturn it, force a re-run or water it down to as near status quo as possible.

Even then, when I've specifically raised the question of why the vote was lost, it wasn't just the issue of an utterly sterile and awful campaign, but why the situation even got to the stage of having a vote, you pop up, avoid the question completely and double down with more adversarial comments.

Be away with you.

It was David Cameron's to lose, he did a crap job.

[FiF]

PositronicRay said:

FiF said:

AC43 said:

But when I look at Brexiteers's attitudes all I see is even angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess.

How ironic.....

You missed out the word "gammon"

But when I look at Remainers' attitudes all I see is ever angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess that the negotiations are in.

And still no reasoned examination of why they lost, despite spending massively more, even by Electoral Commission figures, despite having the full weight of Government and an extra 9 million behind it just on one leaflet, despite having the historical advantage of promoting the status quo position, despite having the advantage of being able to pull the strings of the establishment far and near, the good and the great, and the not so great, to their cause.

Clearly it hurts and still does hurt, the first time the culturally liberal "middle class" which circulates round London and the university towns had lost. Since then they've done everything possible to overturn it, force a re-run or water it down to as near status quo as possible.

Even then, when I've specifically raised the question of why the vote was lost, it wasn't just the issue of an utterly sterile and awful campaign, but why the situation even got to the stage of having a vote, you pop up, avoid the question completely and double down with more adversarial comments.

Be away with you.

It was David Cameron's to lose, he did a crap job.

Well yes, but, and it's a big but, why did things even get to the stage where he had to declare a referendum, and why did the EU feel they could send him home with pretty much nothing to show for his negotiation. Surely they could realise the distrust which had formed and why.

[Digga]

johnxjsc1985 said:

I can see Harry Hill sorting this out.
"who is the angrier Remoaners or Brexiteers......fight"

Doesn't really matter who's angrier, only who will win.

[Earthdweller]

Robertj21a said:

Zero hours contracts are very popular with some people. It's others who won't believe, or even understand, it.

.

I have a couple with different employers suits both of us perfectly

[toppstuff]

SpeckledJim said:

toppstuff said:

SpeckledJim said:

We didn't have those things in 2016?

!

I don’t have the numbers to hand but I think you’ll find the percentage of zero hours and contract deals that make the headline numbers look good is up since 2016.

The 2016 Gospel according to St Gideon told us that employment was going to go down, and that that was a bad thing. We all agreed, Leaver and Remainers alike, that lower employment would indeed be bad.

Now employment has actually gone up, making St. Gideon look a bit of a mug, but the more remarkable thing is actually that employment going up turns out to be a bad thing as well.

Remarkable.

Employment Down: Bad.
Employment Up: Also bad!

Very tough gig, this politics lark.

Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!

I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.

However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.

[bitchstewie]

Robertj21a said:

Zero hours contracts are very popular with some people. It's others who won't believe, or even understand, it.

.

I'm sure they work really well for some people.

I am a little hesitant how much of a "full time" post they count towards in employment statistics - but maybe they don't, I've never looked at that.