How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)
Discussion
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
Stop with your project fear.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
FiF said:
PositronicRay said:
FiF said:
AC43 said:
But when I look at Brexiteers's attitudes all I see is even angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess.
How ironic.....
You missed out the word "gammon"How ironic.....
But when I look at Remainers' attitudes all I see is ever angrier people blaming absolutely everyone but themselves for the mess that the negotiations are in.
And still no reasoned examination of why they lost, despite spending massively more, even by Electoral Commission figures, despite having the full weight of Government and an extra 9 million behind it just on one leaflet, despite having the historical advantage of promoting the status quo position, despite having the advantage of being able to pull the strings of the establishment far and near, the good and the great, and the not so great, to their cause.
Clearly it hurts and still does hurt, the first time the culturally liberal "middle class" which circulates round London and the university towns had lost. Since then they've done everything possible to overturn it, force a re-run or water it down to as near status quo as possible.
Even then, when I've specifically raised the question of why the vote was lost, it wasn't just the issue of an utterly sterile and awful campaign, but why the situation even got to the stage of having a vote, you pop up, avoid the question completely and double down with more adversarial comments.
Be away with you.
It worked a treat.
Sway said:
Elysium said:
UK GDP growth down in Q4 18:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/...
Forecast shows further downward trend for Q1 19:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-gr...
Euro area heading for recession in 2019:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth
The UK report pretty much solely focuses on Brexit as the cause, with a small mention of a slowdown across the major economies globally. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy/...
Forecast shows further downward trend for Q1 19:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-gr...
Euro area heading for recession in 2019:
https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp-growth
The Eurozone figures are the same (average), yet completely different narrative...
Brexit is causing market uncertainty, which is not good when we are already on the edge of recession.
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
In 2016 you predicted Brexit would bring the UK record employment in 2019?
That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines. I would not rush to hold this up as an example of how great things are.
ks the actual figures show zero hours jobs figures flatlining and over 300,000 extra full time paye jobs. No doubt this will be seen as a personal attack on the poster...
Vanden Saab said:
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
In 2016 you predicted Brexit would bring the UK record employment in 2019?
That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines. I would not rush to hold this up as an example of how great things are.
ks the actual figures show zero hours jobs figures flatlining and over 300,000 extra full time paye jobs. No doubt this will be seen as a personal attack on the poster...
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
Put the things that are up and the things that are down together, and we're pretty much fine. Or at least, approximately as fine as we were in February 2016.
If employment doesn't bring you solace, what indicator would be the one that you'd place more stock in?
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.
MDMetal said:
The thing is employment figures aren't imagined by some govt department it's companies hiring people so it's hard to see how hiring more people (or creating more roles) is bad? With respect to Zero hours the point is surely and always should be not to force people into contracts or jobs they don't want to be in. One hopes as the number of free people dries up it forces companies to improve their terms so people aren't forced into ways of working they don't want. Obviously Zero hours work fine for some people so great that they have that option.
In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.
The other two positive indicators are wages are increasing, and productivity is increasing - that means that there is competition in the work place for workers (so not just zero hours sops being thrown out to the masses), and companies are investing in better equipment and processes. Both of those together suggest the economy is relatively healthy. In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.
I say relatively, because anecdotally there is some investment being held back during these uncertain times. That would point to a 'Brexit dividend' the moment we have a clear deal on the table (regardless of what the deal actually is). It would be a mistake to claim that the unlocking of held back investment is down to the quality of the deal itself.
toppstuff said:
Vanden Saab said:
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
In 2016 you predicted Brexit would bring the UK record employment in 2019?
That’s a nice headline but you and I both know it isn’t quite what it appears. Increases in zero hours contracts, agency work etc are beneath these headlines. I would not rush to hold this up as an example of how great things are.
ks the actual figures show zero hours jobs figures flatlining and over 300,000 extra full time paye jobs. No doubt this will be seen as a personal attack on the poster...
ks in the last volume and it was pointed out that you were wrong then. It is not aggression just irritation that you keep posting bks time after time. MDMetal said:
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.
Works very well politically, especially for those on the left as it not only raises employment figures but also you can then accuse the next government of savage cuts whilst ignoring how bloated the organisations got on your watch.
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
toppstuff said:
Don’t get me wrong I think the employment numbers are great ! I’m just a little concerned that some are taking too much comfort from them. I’m not sure they are telling the full picture that’s all.
Including you toppstuff old bean. You only introduced the ZHC schtick because you felt it demonstrated employment numbers were being fudged and hence Gideon's predictions might not have been so wide of the mark if it weren't for the fudge....(I know you didn't believe Gideon...but you obviously believe some hit should have happened by now otherwise why wriggle?).
Now it's been evidenced that is not the case at all...and it's others are reading too much into them
Employment figures will continue to ebb and flow. Hopefully our leaders, once they get through the Brexit thing, will start focussing on the number of people on in work benefits rather than employment figures. To me, it's only marginally better to have someone in a job than not if you're still paying out loads of money in benefits to them. What type of contract they are on is largely meaningless.
But that has nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit. Not in 2013 when these things ramped up, not now and not in in 2025
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
We didn't have those things in 2016?
!
I don’t have the numbers to hand but I think you’ll find the percentage of zero hours and contract deals that make the headline numbers look good is up since 2016. !
Now employment has actually gone up, making St. Gideon look a bit of a mug, but the more remarkable thing is actually that employment going up turns out to be a bad thing as well.
Remarkable.
Employment Down: Bad.
Employment Up: Also bad!
Very tough gig, this politics lark.
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
The alternative to stay in the EU and disregard the risk of a enlarged Federal State and ever encroaching loss of identity. Obviously the majority chose path 1.
SunsetZed said:
MDMetal said:
toppstuff said:
SpeckledJim said:
toppstuff said:
Do not make the assumption that because I voted remain I believe all the doom and gloom. I do not !!
I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
I'm not assuming you believed all of PF.I think the predictions of doom right after brexit are rubbish just like you do.
However I also believe that we will fail to get the FTAs we want fast enough. I am concerned the medium term pain could be considerable and no one seems prepared to admit that it is likely. And when it does come I think people will be very unhappy indeed - or at least I think that this is a risk. A risk people aren’t taking seriously.
If employment had fallen sharply since mid 2016, I think it's reasonable to assume you'd be pointing at that as a bad consequence of the Brexit vote. I would be.
Since the reverse has happened, I don't think it's squareable to not say it's a good thing.
In the end what do we want? As many people as possible to have a well paying job in a role they want with a contract that gives them what they want.
Works very well politically, especially for those on the left as it not only raises employment figures but also you can then accuse the next government of savage cuts whilst ignoring how bloated the organisations got on your watch.
Gassing Station | News, Politics & Economics | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff