How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)
Discussion
powerstroke said:
jonnyb said:
I’m not sure if you’re serious?
You do know that Vidkun Quisling died in 1945?
Not sure if you are hard of thinking or just being obtuse !You do know that Vidkun Quisling died in 1945?
Karl Marx died in 1883 we still call people Marxists .....
No such ideology is related to the term Quisling. So are you saying that Quislings are members of the National Unity Party? or Fascists? Seeing as the term predated the war. Or are you trying to be smart and say 14.8M of your fellow countrymen are traitors? Because that would just be stupid.
king arthur said:
Bear in mind where the income from the tariffs ends up. At the moment 80% of it goes to the EU. From what I've read that is currently worth about £3.4B. According to John Redwood (I know maybe not the most impartial person but let's suppose he's somewhere near until anyone can find a better estimate) the additional tariffs that will be levied on imports from EU are estimated to be worth another £12B - but he says that due to changes in behaviour that would reduce to £10B.
So the government will have an extra £13 billion plus to play with after Brexit - this is nothing to do with EU contributions. They could well decide to use that for cuts in VAT. The extra money is after all effectively another form of tax in the first place.
The fact that they could is not in dispute, the question is if they will.So the government will have an extra £13 billion plus to play with after Brexit - this is nothing to do with EU contributions. They could well decide to use that for cuts in VAT. The extra money is after all effectively another form of tax in the first place.
Personally I think not.
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
Depends what you mean by "abandon".O'Really?
If you put the border checks on Irish exports in ports in mainland Europe (which is one suggestion) then Ireland's exports to Britain are unaffected and is a question of how much disruption there is to exports to REU.
Earthdweller said:
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
No surprise there .. I’ve said it many times on here that I think that will be the result O'Really?
The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
SpeckledJim said:
Earthdweller said:
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
No surprise there .. I’ve said it many times on here that I think that will be the result O'Really?
The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
king arthur said:
SpeckledJim said:
Earthdweller said:
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
No surprise there .. I’ve said it many times on here that I think that will be the result O'Really?
The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
There are many options for future relations between the UK and the EU that leaves the Irish economy almost entirely unaffected. As has been pointed out many times the backstop is about far more than the Irish border.
Hence why I question the term "abandoned" if policy changes. according to forecasts the only significant negative outcome for the Irish economy is a "no deal" Brexit. A change in EU policy might mean that the Irish PM doesn't get to strut around giving a kicking to the old enemy but actually has little material impact on Ireland.
Murph7355 said:
crankedup said:
Elysium said:
Murph7355 said:
Final episode of "Inside Europe" on tonight. BBC2 at 2100.
Fascinating programme. I found it rather difficult to explain to my teenage son why Europe could not simply work together to accommodate the Syrian migrants. In numbers they would have been a drop in the ocean amongst 450m EU citizens.
But only politicians could take the path they did. They were far more worried about photo opportunities than they were the material outcomes of their decisions. The actions they were taking were actively encouraging migration.
The series has been interesting to say the least, and shone a big light on the "safeguards" many remainers insist exist to prevent the greater excesses of the EU - they break the rules when it suits.
Tusk seems to believe he saves the day every time and is always right, Juncker somehow came across as more level headed than I expected and the power brokers in the EU are without doubt Germany and France (to a lesser extent).
That series has done nothing but reaffirm in my mind that we are better off out of the EU. If it changes its approach then maybe one day it will be worth rejoining. Until then I dearly hope our government aren't suicidal enough to ignore the referendum. The EU has significant trouble brewing if it keeps doing what it has been.
Like yourself I learnt nothing from the programs that encourages me to consider that the EU is lttle more than a political experiment, one that is doomed to failure.The crisis that emerge seem to become almost insurmountable owing to the basics of the politics of the Union working against some Member States whilst benefitting others, imo.
SpeckledJim said:
This. One way to look at Ireland is as one of the 28 (27) equal members. Another way, and I suspect the way it is starting to look from Brussels, is to look at Ireland as a group of almost no people who buy and sell almost nothing to and from the rEU, whilst chipping precious little into the pot.
The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
The reality is that the commission regards the members as being there to further the project rather than the commission being there to represent the interests of the members.The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
crankedup said:
The child on the beach, utterly heartbreaking. An image so powerful, even more powerful than the little girl running down the road , naked and terrified. Vietnam.
Like yourself I learnt nothing from the programs that encourages me to consider that the EU is lttle more than a political experiment, one that is doomed to failure.The crisis that emerge seem to become almost insurmountable owing to the basics of the politics of the Union working against some Member States whilst benefitting others, imo.
Any big bully can always get their own way by mistreating smaller people.Like yourself I learnt nothing from the programs that encourages me to consider that the EU is lttle more than a political experiment, one that is doomed to failure.The crisis that emerge seem to become almost insurmountable owing to the basics of the politics of the Union working against some Member States whilst benefitting others, imo.
king arthur said:
Bear in mind where the income from the tariffs ends up. At the moment 80% of it goes to the EU. From what I've read that is currently worth about £3.4B. According to John Redwood (I know maybe not the most impartial person but let's suppose he's somewhere near until anyone can find a better estimate) the additional tariffs that will be levied on imports from EU are estimated to be worth another £12B - but he says that due to changes in behaviour that would reduce to £10B.
So the government will have an extra £13 billion plus to play with after Brexit - this is nothing to do with EU contributions. They could well decide to use that for cuts in VAT. The extra money is after all effectively another form of tax in the first place.
Can I suggest when you read anything by JR you stop think and consider. He is not the brightest particularly about brexit.So the government will have an extra £13 billion plus to play with after Brexit - this is nothing to do with EU contributions. They could well decide to use that for cuts in VAT. The extra money is after all effectively another form of tax in the first place.
The tariffs on UK goods entering the UK will be paid by UK buyers. The extra 10bn is just more tax in the UK.
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
Oh come on, Turbs. You KNOW (to use their headline writers' style) that The Express is a HOPELESS (ditto) comic. If one were to remove all the stories in it about Brexit or that pander to pensioners' fears (the cold weather, statins, Alzheimer's treatments, one would be left with stories about UFOs and aliens (a regular in the online version) and advertising. O'Really?
SpeckledJim said:
Earthdweller said:
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
No surprise there .. I’ve said it many times on here that I think that will be the result O'Really?
The principle says what Ireland wants is every bit as important as what Germany wants.
The economics says the weight of Ireland's opinion is equal in importance to about one sixth of Spain's.
Ireland, and particularly the border issue, is a means to an end used by the E.U.
Once Ireland and its border are no longer a pawn in the bigger picture the empathise will undoubtedly fall to protecting the project and the big players
Ireland sells very little to the other 26 states and is not a significant customer, unlike the UK
It costs the E.U. money, and to a certain extent is a pain in the ass to them like the UK
Varadkar can boast about his new friends and moving on from the old ones, but come April the 1st he might be the lonely kid in the playground
Any negative impact on Ireland I think will be seen as collateral damage by Brussels
In fact, it actually weakens Ireland’s position and makes them more controllable if/when they go begging for the €100m aid package they say they will need to cope with Brexit. I’d suggest their opt outs will be the bargaining chip
Greg66 said:
turbobloke said:
Today's headline: "Ireland now fears EU could ABANDON Dublin to save Brussels from no deal"
O'Really?
Oh come on, Turbs. You KNOW (to use their headline writers' style) that The Express is a HOPELESS (ditto) comic. If one were to remove all the stories in it about Brexit or that pander to pensioners' fears (the cold weather, statins, Alzheimer's treatments, one would be left with stories about UFOs and aliens (a regular in the online version) and advertising. O'Really?
The DE article was focusing on comments from an accountant who works for an Irish company. Your evidence-free attack should be aimed at him rather than the newspaper, which is merely reporting what was said:
Article said:
Mr Martin fears that Brussels may abandon Ireland at the eleventh-hour in order to minimise the risk of a no-deal Brexit.
Mr Martin being the company accountant for The Great Northern Distillery based near the border in Dundalk. The question remains (and I asked a question in my post if you wish to check) so the point is, is the reported event likely? (not where was the point published).turbobloke said:
The Great Northern Distlilery accountant Mr Martin said:
There’s a lot of brinkmanship at the minute. The EU seem to be right behind us.
When push comes to shove, will they still be behind us? It’s a big question.
That is indeed the question, it's the issue that matters.When push comes to shove, will they still be behind us? It’s a big question.
Are we back to the EU throwing Ireland under the bus again? Or have we never left that particular trope?
My prediction: The EU puts more importance on unity and preservation/promotion of peace than it does to Brexit. It's a couple of the founding reasons of the whole European project. They're not going to throw Ireland under the bus. Thinking otherwise is starting to look like wishful thinking. (Of course, time will tell and not so long to go now.)
My prediction: The EU puts more importance on unity and preservation/promotion of peace than it does to Brexit. It's a couple of the founding reasons of the whole European project. They're not going to throw Ireland under the bus. Thinking otherwise is starting to look like wishful thinking. (Of course, time will tell and not so long to go now.)
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