How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 8)

[Tuna]

Toaster said:

And these clowns created the Brexit mess in the first place..........and people think we can negotiate........

And therein lies the subtle difference being able to do something and wanting to do it

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Greg66 said:

Tuna said:

And the irony of ironies is that Corbyn and May are beginning to sing from the same song sheet. You can see the middle ground forming. This from the people who put down red lines and made sincere commitments to protect the UK. They're both desperate to plaster over the cracks in the hope it might give them a chance in the GE - and sod the consequences further down the line.

Didn't one of the arch-Leavers here say that May's greatest failing was not having sought cross-party consensus early doors? Well, perhaps this is a cae of "be careful what you wish for"...

There's a huge difference between early doors consensus (which would have enabled some grown up negotiating), and last minute panic (which is what we're seeing now). Corbyn's in the near perfect position of only having to offer something 'slightly softer' than May to look like he's protecting his electorate whilst not endorsing a single thing she's offering. It's a perfect storm from the EU's point of view.

If they had agreed early on a negotiating position, May wouldn't have been able to run parallel discussions to Davis and switch tack half way through - the opposition would have had a field day. As it is, we've talked ourselves into the worst of all worlds.

I don't know about you, but in the negotiations I wanted our politicians to be protecting the country's interests, not their arses.

I think everyone - Leavers and Remainers - wanted that. But the perfect storm we have now is little different to the perfect storm we had in 2017. May has made a virtue out of inflexibility and Corbyn is as far removed from a palatable Leader of the Opposition when it comes to doing a deal with Conservatives as it is possible to imagine.

Dare one say it - but had Miliband, or H Benn, or any one of a range of less rabidly left wingers been Labour leader, and had someone more flexible than May been PM we would have been (I suspect) in a rather different position now. For Brexit to land when we had a Govt with a majority so thin that it could not afford to ignore its anti-EU wing and an Opposition that has never hated the Conservatives with a greater passion is deeply unfortunate timing.

The fact that it's taken everyone to get to this point before the cross-party chat even begins underscores conclusively for me why cross-party consensus two years ago would never have happened (at least with the two principal actors that we have).

[johnxjsc1985]

How did we get to a situation where May is now positioning herself as a go-between with the EU and Parliament she is supposed to be leading the negotiations.
I see Soubry is still positioning herself as harpie in chief what a horrible woman.

[citizensm1th]

johnxjsc1985 said:

How did we get to a situation where May is now positioning herself as a go-between with the EU and Parliament she is supposed to be leading the negotiations.
I see Soubry is still positioning herself as harpie in chief what a horrible woman.

Because mays one guiding principle in all of this is to keep tory party in one piece by hook or by crook.
She really does not care how brexit goes as long as the tories can walk away after in one piece

[Dindoit]

PurpleMoonlight said:

Ireland is building border inspection points at Dublin Port.

I can help wondering if they feel they have to do that, why not at the NI border too?

“The NI border”

Have you looked on a map recently to see what it looks like, this border? I confess I hadn’t until a recent trip there.

There are 280 odd roads crossing an imaginary line. One main A/N road crosses 7 times in 20km. I made a 15 minute trip from one small town to another and crossed it 4 times. The scale of “the border” is one of the most misunderstood things about this discussion.

[Tuna]

Greg66 said:

I think everyone - Leavers and Remainers - wanted that. But the perfect storm we have now is little different to the perfect storm we had in 2017. May has made a virtue out of inflexibility and Corbyn is as far removed from a palatable Leader of the Opposition when it comes to doing a deal with Conservatives as it is possible to imagine.

Dare one say it - but had Miliband, or H Benn, or any one of a range of less rabidly left wingers been Labour leader, and had someone more flexible than May been PM we would have been (I suspect) in a rather different position now. For Brexit to land when we had a Govt with a majority so thin that it could not afford to ignore its anti-EU wing and an Opposition that has never hated the Conservatives with a greater passion is deeply unfortunate timing.

The fact that it's taken everyone to get to this point before the cross-party chat even begins underscores conclusively for me why cross-party consensus two years ago would never have happened (at least with the two principal actors that we have).

I'd agree with much of that apart from the point in bold. None of what May has done has been forced by Brexiteers - she successfully saw off Davis and Boris, she replaced the initial deal with one far closer to BRINO, she has faced off the ERG and has pretty much eliminated any analysis of how closely her deal fits the Referendum and GE Manifesto from the media. Even JRM is conceding any negotiated points in return for backstop changes.

Her deal is softer than anything mentioned in the Mansion House speech (which at the time was hardly controversial). The unacceptable parts of the deal are mainly the concessions she has made to try to retain as close to membership status to the EU as possible.

To paint it as though she's gone for any sort of 'hard' Brexit against the will of Remainers completely misrepresents the current situation.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Dindoit said:

“The NI border”

Have you looked on a map recently to see what it looks like, this border? I confess I hadn’t until a recent trip there.

There are 280 odd roads crossing an imaginary line. One main A/N road crosses 7 times in 20km. I made a 15 minute trip from one small town to another and crossed it 4 times. The scale of “the border” is one of the most misunderstood things about this discussion.

I fear you are misunderstanding my point.

It's not that they aren't build something at each crossing point, but that they aren't building anything anywhere to cover the NI border. And neither is the UK.

[SpeckledJim]

Dindoit said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Ireland is building border inspection points at Dublin Port.

I can help wondering if they feel they have to do that, why not at the NI border too?

“The NI border”

Have you looked on a map recently to see what it looks like, this border? I confess I hadn’t until a recent trip there.

There are 280 odd roads crossing an imaginary line. One main A/N road crosses 7 times in 20km. I made a 15 minute trip from one small town to another and crossed it 4 times. The scale of “the border” is one of the most misunderstood things about this discussion.

Another reason to put the border in the channel. Only about 10 crossings there, and a great deal more formality...

[anonymous-user]

jonnyb said:

The E.U. can’t really win though can it?

When it tries to get member states to cooperate on issues that are Europe wide it’s accused of furthering it’s desire for a federal Europe, being undemocratic, and elitist.

When it leaves issues to member states, as in this issue, it’s accused of failing.

One wonders what the headlines of the Daily Mail would have been if the E.U. had told the UK that we would have to take 50,000 Syrian refugees.

This is why the EU should never have taken any sovereignty from member states and should have remained as a trading body for Europe.

Member states should be responsible for matters of the state, the EU should have no political power.

Its currently a mess as the buck gets passed around and the people making decisions dont have the mandate to do so.

[Troubleatmill]

Toaster said:

ROFL don't try and defend Chris Grayling or this government over that Ferry fIasco, Seaborne freight that had no money, no employees, no ships, no track record, no employees, no ports, one telephone line no website or sailing schedual. Two of the directors wouldn't pass normal due diligence process, one of the directors is under investigation by a government department and on top of that Eurotunnel is suing the government over this procurement process.In addition they never looked at Seabourne Freights T's and C's if you recall they were lifted form a Pizza company

And these clowns created the Brexit mess in the first place..........and people think we can negotiate........

I going to write a letter Dear Chris I have a rowing boat that can be used to ferry freight across the channel could I have 800K please LOL

Edited by Toaster on Tuesday 12th February 13:30

You are more than likely correct.
Odds are if it walks like a duck....

But. - The guy who I asked to build my house - didn’t do any building work- He just outsourced everything.

I would like to know why the financial backers bailed.
Eg... unable to rent ferries.
.... no more profit in it given “no more checks at Dover / Calais”
.... risk profile now too high
.... it’s a white elephant.
Etc etc

Personally - I would not have awarded it to them. And if I were in business - I wouldn’t have tendered for it.

[Dr Jekyll]

SpeckledJim said:

Dindoit said:

PurpleMoonlight said:

Ireland is building border inspection points at Dublin Port.

I can help wondering if they feel they have to do that, why not at the NI border too?

“The NI border”

Have you looked on a map recently to see what it looks like, this border? I confess I hadn’t until a recent trip there.

There are 280 odd roads crossing an imaginary line. One main A/N road crosses 7 times in 20km. I made a 15 minute trip from one small town to another and crossed it 4 times. The scale of “the border” is one of the most misunderstood things about this discussion.

Another reason to put the border in the channel. Only about 10 crossings there, and a great deal more formality...

Potentially every beach is an entry point, but the WTO don't jump up and down because we don't post customs officers at every beach, or even every harbour and airfield. So why should country lanes in NI be an issue?

[crankedup]

Toaster said:

Troubleatmill said:

Turfy said:

How many ferry companies do not own their ferries?

That was my point. You don’t need to.
You just need to be able to rent available ones.

I’m sure there are airlines renting other companies planes (with a nice new livery added)

ROFL don't try and defend Chris Grayling or this government over that Ferry fIasco, Seaborne freight that had no money, no employees, no ships, no track record, no employees, no ports, one telephone line no website or sailing schedual. Two of the directors wouldn't pass normal due diligence process, one of the directors is under investigation by a government department and on top of that Eurotunnel is suing the government over this procurement process.In addition they never looked at Seabourne Freights T's and C's if you recall they were lifted form a Pizza company

And these clowns created the Brexit mess in the first place..........and people think we can negotiate........

I going to write a letter Dear Chris I have a rowing boat that can be used to ferry freight across the channel could I have 800K please LOL

Edited by Toaster on Tuesday 12th February 13:30

The ghost of Carillion!
Plenty of businesses operate as such with the few at the top raking in a personal fortune and fk everybody else, including the job it seems.

[Helicopter123]

Brexit Plan B: "Revoke Article 50"

- Cost: £0
- Saving vs no deal mitigation: £billions
- Planning time: none
- Additional preparations: none
- Soldiers on streets: 0
- Fake ferry companies involved: 0
- Irish border situation: 100% resolved
- Passport colour: any

• This is currently the top posted comment on the BBC website.

Edited by Helicopter123 on Tuesday 12th February 16:12

[andymadmak]

Helicopter123 said:

Brexit Plan B: "Revoke Article 50"

- Cost: £0
- Saving vs no deal mitigation: £billions
- Planning time: none
- Additional preparations: none
- Soldiers on streets: 0
- Fake ferry companies involved: 0
- Irish border situation: 100% resolved
- Passport colour: any

Been on the BBC website again ?

At least credit the original poster rather than try to pass it off as your own.

[PurpleMoonlight]

Helicopter123 said:

Brexit Plan B: "Revoke Article 50"

- Cost: £0
- Saving vs no deal mitigation: £billions
- Planning time: none
- Additional preparations: none
- Soldiers on streets: 0
- Fake ferry companies involved: 0
- Irish border situation: 100% resolved
- Passport colour: any

And a happy Budgie?

[SpeckledJim]

Helicopter123 said:

Brexit Plan B: "Revoke Article 50"

- Cost: £0
- Saving vs no deal mitigation: £billions
- Planning time: none
- Additional preparations: none
- Soldiers on streets: 0
- Fake ferry companies involved: 0
- Irish border situation: 100% resolved
- Passport colour: any

- Damage to UK democracy and international credibility: Enormous

- Care about damage to UK democracy among some of those who've never been on the wrong side of it before and don't like it: Sadly, dishearteningly, demoralisingly little

[Vaud]

SpeckledJim said:

- Damage to UK democracy and international credibility: Enormous

International credibility damage would be minor and short term. Most Europeans would think "daft idea to leave in the first place..."

[youngsyr]

SpeckledJim said:

youngsyr said:

I'd go further than that - if there was a solution for an electronic only border between two sovereign countries then it would already exist.

youngsyr said:

There is over $600 bn of trade each year between USA and Canada. If they haven't found a better solution in the century or so that they've been close allies then I rate the chances of the UK/RoI/EU finding one within the next two years at precisely zero.

This is the exact same logical fallacy that you brought to bear the other day with your 'Greece and Italy haven't collapsed already so they won't collapse in the future' treatise.

Do you think perhaps you're not very imaginative when it comes to envisaging change?

How is it a logical fallacy?

My belief is simply that if the US hasn't found a solution to an electronic border, despite a massive incentive to do so, then the chances of our government, the Irish government or the EU sorting one out in short order are non-existant.

Who would you back to get any issue that has a commercial impact solved - 100 years of the US government or 2 years of the EU government?

[Dr Jekyll]

Helicopter123 said:

Brexit Plan B: "Revoke Article 50"

- Cost: £0
- Saving vs no deal mitigation: £billions
- Planning time: none
- Additional preparations: none
- Soldiers on streets: 0
- Fake ferry companies involved: 0
- Irish border situation: 100% resolved
- Passport colour: any

• This is currently the top posted comment on the BBC website.

Edited by Helicopter123 on Tuesday 12th February 16:12

Just how many billions would they charge us in budget contributions if we decided it was impossible ever to leave?

[SpeckledJim]

youngsyr said:

SpeckledJim said:

youngsyr said:

I'd go further than that - if there was a solution for an electronic only border between two sovereign countries then it would already exist.

youngsyr said:

There is over $600 bn of trade each year between USA and Canada. If they haven't found a better solution in the century or so that they've been close allies then I rate the chances of the UK/RoI/EU finding one within the next two years at precisely zero.

This is the exact same logical fallacy that you brought to bear the other day with your 'Greece and Italy haven't collapsed already so they won't collapse in the future' treatise.

Do you think perhaps you're not very imaginative when it comes to envisaging change?

How is it a logical fallacy?

My belief is simply that if the US hasn't found a solution to an electronic border, despite a massive incentive to do so, then the chances of our government, the Irish government or the EU sorting one out in short order are non-existant.

Who would you back to get any issue that has a commercial impact solved - 100 years of the US government or 2 years of the EU government?

I'd back whoever is actually under pressure to do it. No pressure = no action.

The USA is a weird combination of bleeding edge, and complete dinosaur. Especially at the govt. level. The EU is a wobbly blob of obfuscation and muddled responsibility, multiplied by 28 competing interests.

The failure of the US government and EU to do something is almost a recommendation, so hopeless are they at bringing about change.

Pressure, if brought to bear, will cut the crap and get something done.