Ethiopian plane crash

Author
Discussion

2fast748

1,095 posts

196 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all

surveyor

17,844 posts

185 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
2fast748 said:
Don't get it. 2020 is only a couple of week away in any case.

Lemming Train

5,567 posts

73 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
surveyor said:
2fast748 said:
Don't get it. 2020 is only a couple of week away in any case.
If they don't fly until some time in March as predictions are going with, that's approx 125 further frames to find parking spots for if they continue production. They've just about run out of space on their own land so it's likely they'd have to start paying for storage at places like Victorville and Marana. I expect the companies at both those locations will be rubbing their fat hands together waiting for the phone to ring so they can give Boeing some obscene prices, knowing they're up st Creek.

Boeing presumably considers those costs to be prohibitive vs stopping the line, especially if the FAA continue to drag their heels with the recertification.

To give you some numbers of the current situation, they have 402 undelivered frames parked up :

232 at Grant County
72 at Kelly Field
8 at Paine Field
84 at Boeing Field (some currently production flight testing)
6 in storage at the factory at Renton

On top of this there are (based on the monthly production cut since the grounding) approx 100+ fuselage barrels at Wichita and stored on train carriages in sidings because the Renton factory can't take them. By March you'd add approx another 30 to that count if production continued as per Boeing instruction - space that I doubt Spirit have available, nor does Renton which already has 100+ fuselages stacked up ready to come on the train.

Something has to give.

Eric Mc

122,053 posts

266 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Drihump Trolomite said:
I bet right now they are wishing they had
Too right. They were trying to stretch a 50 plus year old basic design beyond its capabilities.

anonymous-user

55 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Lemming Train said:
If they don't fly until some time in March as predictions are going with, that's approx 125 further frames to find parking spots for if they continue production. They've just about run out of space on their own land so it's likely they'd have to start paying for storage at places like Victorville and Marana. I expect the companies at both those locations will be rubbing their fat hands together waiting for the phone to ring so they can give Boeing some obscene prices, knowing they're up st Creek.

Boeing presumably considers those costs to be prohibitive vs stopping the line, especially if the FAA continue to drag their heels with the recertification.

To give you some numbers of the current situation, they have 402 undelivered frames parked up :

232 at Grant County
72 at Kelly Field
8 at Paine Field
84 at Boeing Field (some currently production flight testing)
6 in storage at the factory at Renton

On top of this there are (based on the monthly production cut since the grounding) approx 100+ fuselage barrels at Wichita and stored on train carriages in sidings because the Renton factory can't take them. By March you'd add approx another 30 to that count if production continued as per Boeing instruction - space that I doubt Spirit have available, nor does Renton which already has 100+ fuselages stacked up ready to come on the train.

Something has to give.
They’re going to have to find new places to store them.



surveyor

17,844 posts

185 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
El stovey said:
Lemming Train said:
If they don't fly until some time in March as predictions are going with, that's approx 125 further frames to find parking spots for if they continue production. They've just about run out of space on their own land so it's likely they'd have to start paying for storage at places like Victorville and Marana. I expect the companies at both those locations will be rubbing their fat hands together waiting for the phone to ring so they can give Boeing some obscene prices, knowing they're up st Creek.

Boeing presumably considers those costs to be prohibitive vs stopping the line, especially if the FAA continue to drag their heels with the recertification.

To give you some numbers of the current situation, they have 402 undelivered frames parked up :

232 at Grant County
72 at Kelly Field
8 at Paine Field
84 at Boeing Field (some currently production flight testing)
6 in storage at the factory at Renton

On top of this there are (based on the monthly production cut since the grounding) approx 100+ fuselage barrels at Wichita and stored on train carriages in sidings because the Renton factory can't take them. By March you'd add approx another 30 to that count if production continued as per Boeing instruction - space that I doubt Spirit have available, nor does Renton which already has 100+ fuselages stacked up ready to come on the train.

Something has to give.
They’re going to have to find new places to store them.


Time for some multi-story airplane parking..

anonymous-user

55 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Maybe convert some of them into something more useful (at the moment)








Starfighter

4,930 posts

179 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
BBC quoting a stop on production from January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50817124

Nice little threat about the impact to suppliers and the wider economy.

Drihump Trolomite

5,048 posts

82 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Starfighter said:
BBC quoting a stop on production from January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50817124

Nice little threat about the impact to suppliers and the wider economy.
Meh, a raft of the suppliers provide to Airbus anyway who are ramping up

eldar

21,798 posts

197 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Drihump Trolomite said:
Meh, a raft of the suppliers provide to Airbus anyway who are ramping up
Are airbus actually selling more?

Starfighter

4,930 posts

179 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Some of the big names are taking a hit, most likely due to a loss of cash flow with Max shipments bring stopped. Airbus stock up 2 %
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/17/s...

Also a rebranding exercise looks to be starting.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/15/b...

jshell

11,032 posts

206 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Starfighter said:
Also a rebranding exercise looks to be starting.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/15/b...
Old news - from July.

Starfighter

4,930 posts

179 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Sorry. I missed that.
paperbag

Drihump Trolomite

5,048 posts

82 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
eldar said:
Drihump Trolomite said:
Meh, a raft of the suppliers provide to Airbus anyway who are ramping up
Are airbus actually selling more?
They aren't selling less and will likely build extra capacity.

anonymous-user

55 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Seems to me Boeing's solution for the cobbled-up Max was based around a software and training "fudge" which turned out to be a "bodge". It's far from clear IMO that revising the "bodge" so that it's only a "fudge" is going to satisfy anybody about anything.

Keeping production running demonstrated commitment to the project and must have been intended to show confidence that a "fix" was deliverable. Where things will go now is IMO hard to see.

Anyone fancy being the regulator who signs it off as "now safe to fly"?

Munter

31,319 posts

242 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
rockin said:
Anyone fancy being the regulator who signs it off as "now safe to fly"?
I think that's probably the main problem now.

If they had made the system just a little bit less crashy to start with. (say by using both AoA sensors and avoiding a single point of failure) Then all the other issues that have come to light would have been solved slowly over time with the plane in service. It simply cannot ever be allowed to potentially crash from a systems problem.

So now, if it ever makes it up in the air again it'll probably be the safest control system in the known universe. Because the FAA will be all over every possibility of everything no matter how small. The bar to jump over is going to be higher then ever, and probably higher than other planes certified after.

I think we're 50/50 looking at a lot of scrap metal in the shape of passenger airliners.

Lemming Train

5,567 posts

73 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Munter said:
I think we're 50/50 looking at a lot of scrap metal in the shape of passenger airliners.
Not a chance that will happen.

scottydoesntknow

860 posts

58 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Lemming Train said:
Not a chance that will happen.
There’s nearly 700 of them. They’ve got to fix ‘em.

Drihump Trolomite

5,048 posts

82 months

Tuesday 17th December 2019
quotequote all
Introducing the Boeing 737 iMax

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 18th December 2019
quotequote all
737 Fine toothcomb