How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)
Discussion
JNW1 said:
sunbeam alpine said:
The level of support for a "Hard" Brexit on PH amazes me.
I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.
A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?
Can only speak for myself but when I voted leave I did so in the belief a mutually beneficial deal could be struck between the UK and the EU; not a deal that gave the UK all the benefits of membership without being a member but something that was in the best interests of both parties. I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.
A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?
However, I was nevertheless aware we could end-up in a No Deal scenario and hence my expectation was our government would plan adequately for that eventuality; in fact, I'd have expected them to plan for that if for no other reason than to demonstrate to the EU that we would be leaving with or without a deal (which may have in turn focused the EU's mind on agreeing something acceptable to the UK).
Regardless of whether we left with or without a deal I was under no illusions that it could have an adverse affect economically and that was the one reason why I hovered around whether or not to vote remain. However, on balance I decided our medium and long-term future was better out of the EU (I don't support the vision of ever closer political union and integration) so I voted leave.
Therefore, despite what a lot of remainders suggest, I knew there were potential adverse consequences to my vote and in my view we should now be leaving with No Deal at the end of this month but in a planned and orderly way. The fact we're worried about "crashing out" is in my view entirely a consequence of the way the government and Parliament have handled the whole exit process (and it's a worry that was avoidable IMO).
anonymous said:
[redacted]
Interesting - I can't see what would cause a crash - possibly a gradual slowdown but I think that's what's happened over the past year anyway (certainly where I am, Surrey/SW London). I know a lot of people my age (mid 30s) who have been holding off moving over the past year until they know what's happening (who can blame them!). With Brexit effectively being priced in and likely some version of May's deal the likely outcome I can even see another mini-boom as people realise the sky hasn't fallen in and start getting on with it all at once with demand outstripping supply.Tony427 said:
" If you as a business man haven't done all the planning required by now, you don't deserve to be in business."
While I agree with this in principle, the sheer mess that has been made of the negotiations has made this pretty much impossible.The turnover I will lose comes from a trading relationship which started last year. I'll survive without it, but who likes to lose money? (especially when it's relatively easy money).
The viability of the product isn't only determined by it's price - but also by other raw material prices (which won't be effected by Brexit) - and the price of the product relative to other raw materials. The product is currently about at the maximum price, so a price rise due to tariffs would have to be mirrored by a fall in world raw material prices, which is unlikely.
I can't take in a large stock (product has relatively short shelf life).
The latest discussion I had with the supplier's MD yesterday confirmed that they have arranged contract manufacture somewhere in the EU, but they haven't yet signed the contract! If the contract manufacture goes ahead they will cease production in the UK, leading to 9 job losses. This will be decided next week.
SunsetZed said:
Elysium said:
Elysium said:
I don’t believe that a referendum can succeed now without a no-deal option.
However, I suspect May will want this on the order paper as a last ditch effort to get the ERG to support the deal, gambling that it will be defeated before the final vote.
It just occurred to me that the ERG might support this amendment with the further addition of a no-deal option. However, I suspect May will want this on the order paper as a last ditch effort to get the ERG to support the deal, gambling that it will be defeated before the final vote.
I think we have a 2 horse race:
1. Approval of Mays deal without amendment
2. Approval of Mays deal subject to a referendum (deal, no deal or remain).
1. No Deal 38%
2. Deal 22%
3. Remain 40%
Who wins? If you're answer is remain then I can't see the ERG supporting that.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8647787/brexi...
but I don't know how the other Brexiteers will react. If she loses again, then it looks like a 2 year extension or longer
ITP said:
psi310398 said:
don'tbesilly said:
Yet the ERG will get the blame for voting down May's deal for the third time, because Cox is desperate to get the DUP onside, and then the ERG will follow suit.
I'll wager that if the deal gets voted down by the ERG/DUP, the media will then blame same for it all falling to pieces.
Or credit. I'll wager that if the deal gets voted down by the ERG/DUP, the media will then blame same for it all falling to pieces.
The WA is pretty universally seen as a turd. And full membership is clearly preferable to colony status.
I were ERG, I'd rather remain (revoke A50) and cause trouble from within than sign up indefinitely to the provisions of the WA and associated bits of paper. There's nothing stopping the running of a 'treason of the clerks' campaign and going for Brexit again after a GE, possibly in coalition with TBP. It took the best part of 50 years to get the last referendum - taking another ten and causing Brussels any amount of problems in the meantime does not seem terribly unattractive, compared to the WA.
And whatever happens, including a clean departure on the 29th, there will be unfinished business. Better to have open options than closed ones IMV.
It would be much better to stay in then have an election in a couple of years once a new party can be formed and go again from there. Let’s face it, if the current government, and the opposition will be decimated at the next election due to their skulduggery, this is obvious.
Look what happened to the Lib Dem’s just for going back on a promise about tuition fees.......
In theory the ERG can be easily bribed, May just needs to promise to step down in return for their votes, let's hope she doesn't...
psi310398 said:
sunbeam alpine said:
The level of support for a "Hard" Brexit on PH amazes me.
I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.
A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?
I'm almost certain that it will end up costing me, especially as I own property in the EU. Indeed, it already has as I pay my bills and taxes there in Euros. I posted a while back (vol 6 or 7, I think) that a no-deal Brexit which resulted in tariffs in agriculture would cost me personally about €2500 per month, and threaten 9 jobs at one of my UK-based suppliers. It would also put both my brother and sister-in-law's jobs in the UK under threat.
A general question (if I may) to members who are supporting Brexit "at any cost" - how can you be so certain that you will not be personally affected by the UK crashing out?
And, yes, some (subsidised/tariff protected) production sectors will suffer more than others in the same way that weaning junkies off heroin is never a pleasant experience. However, AIUI, there are plans in place to relieve pressures as adjustments are made. And lower tariffs, less price distortion and access to world-wide markets will help consumers immensely. It will even force EU producers to lower their prices if they wish to sell to the UK.
So, in the medium and longer term, I genuinely believe we're better off out of it. All of us.
The same trolley over here in Belgium would cost at least 50% more. Does this reflect your experience in Italy? (I know you spend quite a lot of time there).
sunbeam alpine said:
Tony427 said:
" If you as a business man haven't done all the planning required by now, you don't deserve to be in business."
While I agree with this in principle, the sheer mess that has been made of the negotiations has made this pretty much impossible.That meant a fundamental redesign of our core systems. This involves some 50 different systems. Some where written 30 year's ago in COBAL. For the last 2 year's the project has cost millions taken enormous amount of resources. Employment in FS is booming because of brexit, all of it moving jobs outside the UK.
It will be ready in time but all revenue generating activity has been on hold.
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
steve_k said:
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
There is no second referendum in the offingWould the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
The question however, would not be leave or remain as we are past that point and negotiations have taken place.
It is the losers that generally request a rerun.
All in all pretty pointless question.
steve_k said:
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
They are clutching at any straw possible. Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
Quite simply. We do not need another referendum.
The question was asked and answered.
The problem is we have circa 400 Remainers in Parliament the majority won their seats under a Leave manifesto - who quite simple want us to remain.
Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
Troubleatmill said:
steve_k said:
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
They are clutching at any straw possible. Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
Quite simply. We do not need another referendum.
The question was asked and answered.
The problem is we have circa 400 Remainers in Parliament the majority won their seats under a Leave manifesto - who quite simple want us to remain.
Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
By the way the old one failed.
Troubleatmill said:
The problem is we have circa 400 Remainers in Parliament the majority won their seats under a Leave manifesto - who quite simple want us to remain.
Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
I see that as a cost saving - the restoration/refurbishment costs of the HoP are going to spiral out of control Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
Flatten it - prime real estate on the banks of the thames - perfect for redevelopment
Build a new Parliament in the middle of the country for a fraction of the cost
Reduces the expenses claims for all those MP's and Lords (no expensive second London property required)
And stops the buggers being so Londoncentric
Only wins in my book
B'stard Child said:
Troubleatmill said:
The problem is we have circa 400 Remainers in Parliament the majority won their seats under a Leave manifesto - who quite simple want us to remain.
Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
I see that as a cost saving - the restoration/refurbishment costs of the HoP are going to spiral out of control Guy Fawkes has the right idea.
Flatten it - prime real estate on the banks of the thames - perfect for redevelopment
Build a new Parliament in the middle of the country for a fraction of the cost
Reduces the expenses claims for all those MP's and Lords (no expensive second London property required)
And stops the buggers being so Londoncentric
Only wins in my book
Either would have been a good idea.
Refurbishing whilst MPs in occupation is a scandalous waste of tax payer money.
My preference was to turn it into a museum of our politics through the ages with maybe an hotel.
Would have made a mint with tourism.
Build a new fit for purpose parliament building somewhere relatively close by as most of the ministries are in the locality.
Edited by Nickgnome on Friday 15th March 18:21
Elysium said:
I just read a comment piece in today’s times that makes a lot of sense.
The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Wilson amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.
This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’
The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.
It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
Good post, and this would work in that it gets May's deal through (I would think) subject to final approval by the people.The people’s vote and labour second ref supporters referred to the Kyle Wilson amendment as a preferential route to a second ref.
This was supposed to be tabled on Tuesday when the EU deal was put to the second meaningful vote. However it was withdrawn. The amendment would see labour support the deal in return for an undertaking that it would go to a plebiscite (second ref) who would choose between ‘the deal’ and ‘remain’
The Times piece suggests that this could now reappear for the third meaningful vote as a high stakes manoeuvre for Corbyn and May.
It makes a lot of sense as it crystallises a number of things.
Nickgnome said:
steve_k said:
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
There is no second referendum in the offingWould the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
The question however, would not be leave or remain as we are past that point and negotiations have taken place.
It is the losers that generally request a rerun.
All in all pretty pointless question.
steve_k said:
Nickgnome said:
steve_k said:
If it goes to a second referendum with the same options leave or remain would a win by remain with a result 51% v 49% be void due to the previous referendum result been a higher majority?
Would the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
There is no second referendum in the offingWould the same remainers who are currently pushing for a second referendum ignore this result and ask for a third or say the job is done now the result has been overturned ?
The question however, would not be leave or remain as we are past that point and negotiations have taken place.
It is the losers that generally request a rerun.
All in all pretty pointless question.
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