How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

[Mrr T]

Tuna said:

Mrr T said:

So help me to understand.
The WA is leaving the EU, Y/N...

These are like the classic Groucho questions, "are you still beating your wife?"

You haven't mentioned the political declaration, and doing so really over simplifies the consequences of May's deal. Taken together, the WA and PD commit to a very specific vision of the final agreement we will reach with the EU - and various commentators argue it binds the future negotiators into that vision, as dictated by the EU.

Specifically, the WA commits us to regulatory oversight by the EU with no voting rights, and prevents us from making independent trade deals - subject to the EU's own trade deals over which (again) we will have no voting rights.

As a definition of 'leaving the EU' it is questionable at best. Economically, it appears to be extremely harmful for the UK., Y/N...

The commitment is only until we have a solution for the Irish border. So as soon the tanned PH company directors invent unicorns it will be fine.

Actually I would argue the WA gives us more influence over much EU regulation than as a member.

[Robertj21a]

Gribs said:

That doesn't take into account that far more leave voters than remain voters have died since the previous vote and a majority of new voters support remain. The stats suggest that if no one changed their vote at all remain would win just due to deaths of leavers. I'd also expect turn out among the young to be far higher than before as campaigning will target them heavily and over the last couple of years they seem to have become generally more politically engaged.

If leave thought they had a reasonable chance of winning they'd be calling for another referendum to avoid May's st deal that is objectively worse than remaining without even the slight possibility of being advantageous in the future like no deal. The majority of people I know are remainers and a large proportion of them prefer no deal over May's.

.

I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....

.

[crankedup]

psi310398 said:

crankedup said:

I agree that my comment regarding how constituencies voted had no bearing on a referendum result.My point that I was trying to make was simply that MPs have a constituency for which they represent.In my constituency the referendum result was around 55% leave/ 40 something remain.This is used by myself to see how my MP reacts to her constituents voting pattern. Others can and have reacted the same, how else are we supposed to ‘oversee’ our MPs performances.?

Interesting news just in.

Nick Boles, the Conservative MP Grantham and Stamford, has resigned his membership of his local constituency association, saying:

“I am not willing to do what would be necessary to restore a reasonable working relationship with a group of people whose values and views are so much at odds with my own” I will continue to take Tory whip “if it is offered to me on acceptable terms.”

So a Conservative MP who knows the game is up and that he won't be fighting the next election as a Conservative candidate. The first of many?

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

[Mrr T]

crankedup said:

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

[steve_k]

Elysium said:

steve_k said:

Mrr T said:

steve_k said:

June 2016 Prime Minister David Cameron:

“The British public would be voting if we leave would be to leave the EU and leave the single market. We’d then have to negotiate a trade deal from outside with the European Union... But if we leave the EU and the German finance minister was very clear, you’re either in or you’re out, leaving the single market, you’ve then got to negotiate a trade deal.”

Maybe you didn't understand or were just not listening to what the PM said.

But leavers said every thing Cameron said was a lie. So clearly this was a lie.

Read the quote

Nowhere were people told that leaving without a deal was even an option.

I don't recall any campaigner, on either side, suggesting that we would not even be able to agree terms of withdrawal.

I don't know if they did or did not, I never expected any sort of mutually acceptable deal on our future relationship until after we had left so where we are now in the negotiations is no shock.

All I see is up to now is a one sided negotiation designed to try to reverse the result.

[crankedup]

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Problem is another referendum isn't going to heal the divide.






More analysis here, behind paywall https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/ed...

In the short term it will break the deadlock and confirm what the majority want.

That won’t make the minority position any easier, but over time we will at least be able to get on with other things.

Parliament deciding to delay for no clear reason, reluctantly leaving with no-deal or holding their nose to take a bad deal, without checking with us to see what we want, will make things worse.

Is there anything that would actually ‘heal the divide’?

The point I'm trying to make is that in all probability another referendum is going to be very close. If you look at the stats, 88% of Remainers say they aren't going to change their vote, 88% of Leavers say they aren't going to change their vote, 7% of Leavers say they're going to change their vote to Remain, 8% of Remainers say they're going to change to vote Leave.

If an other referendum gave a convincing endorsement to one or other side, regardless of things are too broken now for real harmony, then the losing side has really no other option but to STFU and get on with life, whichever way it goes.

I understand, but you are still talking about 'sides'.

In this thread, just today, I have read posts from leave voters who think we should take the deal, leave voters who want no-deal and remain voters who are similarly split.

Virtually no-one seems to want this deal, everyone who is saying we should take it has simply resigned themselves to 'defeat'. Conversely, I have read posts by leave supporters in this forum threatening civil disobedience if we leave with the deal!

At this point, it is not just about leave or remain, it is about how we leave, how long we drag this out for and if the price of leaving, which is not the Brexit most people seem to have wanted, is actually worth paying.

I am personally horrified that we have pinned ourselves into a corner, where we feel obliged to agree a bad brexit deal, via a withdrawal agreement no-one likes, because we don't want to 'upset' people by asking them if it is OK.

A second referendum will almost certainly be close, given how divided we are. But at least we would find out what the majority want - deal, no-deal or remain - no matter how small that majority might be.

Anything else is just guessing. Which is why Parliament have opted to delay.

Any second referendum is looking to be increasingly unlikely.
No elections for UK MEP's in May and we leave the EU on the 1st July deal or no deal.

There is a vote next week on the deal. The Govt motion is to delay till Jun if approved or much later if it is rejected to allow us to fight EU elections

Wouldn’t have thought the EU will allow an extension that would involve the U.K. to be involved with thier upcoming Elections?

[don'tbesilly]

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Problem is another referendum isn't going to heal the divide.






More analysis here, behind paywall https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/ed...

In the short term it will break the deadlock and confirm what the majority want.

That won’t make the minority position any easier, but over time we will at least be able to get on with other things.

Parliament deciding to delay for no clear reason, reluctantly leaving with no-deal or holding their nose to take a bad deal, without checking with us to see what we want, will make things worse.

Is there anything that would actually ‘heal the divide’?

The point I'm trying to make is that in all probability another referendum is going to be very close. If you look at the stats, 88% of Remainers say they aren't going to change their vote, 88% of Leavers say they aren't going to change their vote, 7% of Leavers say they're going to change their vote to Remain, 8% of Remainers say they're going to change to vote Leave.

If an other referendum gave a convincing endorsement to one or other side, regardless of things are too broken now for real harmony, then the losing side has really no other option but to STFU and get on with life, whichever way it goes.

I understand, but you are still talking about 'sides'.

In this thread, just today, I have read posts from leave voters who think we should take the deal, leave voters who want no-deal and remain voters who are similarly split.

Virtually no-one seems to want this deal, everyone who is saying we should take it has simply resigned themselves to 'defeat'. Conversely, I have read posts by leave supporters in this forum threatening civil disobedience if we leave with the deal!

At this point, it is not just about leave or remain, it is about how we leave, how long we drag this out for and if the price of leaving, which is not the Brexit most people seem to have wanted, is actually worth paying.

I am personally horrified that we have pinned ourselves into a corner, where we feel obliged to agree a bad brexit deal, via a withdrawal agreement no-one likes, because we don't want to 'upset' people by asking them if it is OK.

A second referendum will almost certainly be close, given how divided we are. But at least we would find out what the majority want - deal, no-deal or remain - no matter how small that majority might be.

Anything else is just guessing. Which is why Parliament have opted to delay.

Any second referendum is looking to be increasingly unlikely.
No elections for UK MEP's in May and we leave the EU on the 1st July deal or no deal.

There is a vote next week on the deal. The Govt motion is to delay till Jun if approved or much later if it is rejected to allow us to fight EU elections

There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.

Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?

Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...

[Elysium]

crankedup said:

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Elysium said:

FiF said:

Problem is another referendum isn't going to heal the divide.






More analysis here, behind paywall https://digitaledition.telegraph.co.uk/editions/ed...

In the short term it will break the deadlock and confirm what the majority want.

That won’t make the minority position any easier, but over time we will at least be able to get on with other things.

Parliament deciding to delay for no clear reason, reluctantly leaving with no-deal or holding their nose to take a bad deal, without checking with us to see what we want, will make things worse.

Is there anything that would actually ‘heal the divide’?

The point I'm trying to make is that in all probability another referendum is going to be very close. If you look at the stats, 88% of Remainers say they aren't going to change their vote, 88% of Leavers say they aren't going to change their vote, 7% of Leavers say they're going to change their vote to Remain, 8% of Remainers say they're going to change to vote Leave.

If an other referendum gave a convincing endorsement to one or other side, regardless of things are too broken now for real harmony, then the losing side has really no other option but to STFU and get on with life, whichever way it goes.

I understand, but you are still talking about 'sides'.

In this thread, just today, I have read posts from leave voters who think we should take the deal, leave voters who want no-deal and remain voters who are similarly split.

Virtually no-one seems to want this deal, everyone who is saying we should take it has simply resigned themselves to 'defeat'. Conversely, I have read posts by leave supporters in this forum threatening civil disobedience if we leave with the deal!

At this point, it is not just about leave or remain, it is about how we leave, how long we drag this out for and if the price of leaving, which is not the Brexit most people seem to have wanted, is actually worth paying.

I am personally horrified that we have pinned ourselves into a corner, where we feel obliged to agree a bad brexit deal, via a withdrawal agreement no-one likes, because we don't want to 'upset' people by asking them if it is OK.

A second referendum will almost certainly be close, given how divided we are. But at least we would find out what the majority want - deal, no-deal or remain - no matter how small that majority might be.

Anything else is just guessing. Which is why Parliament have opted to delay.

Any second referendum is looking to be increasingly unlikely.
No elections for UK MEP's in May and we leave the EU on the 1st July deal or no deal.

There is a vote next week on the deal. The Govt motion is to delay till Jun if approved or much later if it is rejected to allow us to fight EU elections

Wouldn’t have thought the EU will allow an extension that would involve the U.K. to be involved with thier upcoming Elections?

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

[GT119]

mike9009 said:

Max_Torque said:

e.

It's also worth noting, that the older you are, the more likely you were to vote Leave, and nearly 500,000 people die of old age each year, so there are about 1.25 Million fewer of the older generation, of which ~65% voted to Leave, so that's another possibly significant swing, when added to the ~ 1M younger people now eligible to vote because they have turned 18 in the last 2.5 years.

So, as a Remainer, we should drag this out by another couple of years before having another vote?? Or do people become more likely to vote Brexit with senility?

The maths interests me and of course is what actually determines the outcome. I have made the point about demographic effect (deaths and new votes) several times to be told I’m an idiot for ignoring the aging effect (swing in voting preference as we get older).

Yet we now have leavers quoting polls that indicate that the aging effect isn’t that significant on the issue of Brexit.

Admittedly the aging effect doesn’t need a large % of the electorate to overcome the demographic effect but I do think that Brexit voting preferences will not follow the usual aging effect pattern.

My take on this is that the demographic effect is slowly but surely reducing the majority for leave and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

At the moment it’s probably still just in leave’s favour, in another year or two, I’m not so sure.

Edited by GT119 on Saturday 16th March 11:57

[The Li-ion King]

Courtesy of the joke thread

But very appropriate...

Bad Deal rejected twice, no deal ruled out along with People's Vote, Bad Deal to be represented again... let's tell the cashier her Chip and Pin reader must be broken, not the fact there's nothing in our account

[Elysium]

don'tbesilly said:

There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.

Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?

Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...

If the deal somehow gets to a 4th vote it will pass. At that point there will be no time for anything else.

For that reason it must be crunch time next week. I expect the Bryant amendment to be tabled ruling out further votes on the same deal. I also expect the second referendum motions to be rolled out.

The EU clearly don’t want our MEPs there. Getting rid of Farage is probably one of the only consolations they have from this process.

[gooner1]

mike9009 said:

So, as a Remainer, we should drag this out by another couple of years before having another vote?? Or do people become more likely to vote Brexit with senility?

How old are you now Mike?

[davepoth]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-47594875

Nick Boles has quit his constituency party, which may or may not be significant.

[steve_k]

Elysium said:

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

I think you might be right it is the next step to reverse the result.

[crankedup]

Mrr T said:

crankedup said:

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

Agreed, of course it’s the polar opposite situation in him being a leaver from a constituency that voted majority to remain. Hence why questions will be asked by the electorate regarding the issue.

[Elysium]

steve_k said:

Elysium said:

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

I think you might be right it is the next step to reverse the result.

I think the EU will accept a second referendum because it will end the Brexit process. From their perspective there is a good chance that we will decide to remain or accept the withdrawal agreement.

Both are good outcomes for the EU.

They will accept the risk of no-deal through an extension as they face that as a certainty if they refuse.

[GT119]

Robertj21a said:

.

I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....

.

You shoot this down every time someone mentions it.

I can’t find any conclusive evidence that the existing voters are changing their stance in any meaningful way, yet the effect of deaths and new voters is very easy to see.

Can you point me to any evidence for the former rather just saying it happens on every other political issue so therefore it must be happening here?

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

Same question again. How do you think being forced to have another referendum by the EU will go down with the people who will be voting even those who reluctantly voted remain? IMHO it would be a bloodbath, remain would be decimated. I would suggest 75%+ leave

[s2art]

crankedup said:

Mrr T said:

crankedup said:

Certainly it would appear that many MPs position is at odds with thier electorate, as such Boles has at least recognised this as his own situation. Likely outcome for some will be standing as an independent or Membership of a emerging Political Party, an assortment of odds and sods that fall between the two main Parties.
As others have said, it is the beginning of a transformed Political landscape which will develop over the next two or three GE?

When can we expect John Redwood to stand down?

Agreed, of course it’s the polar opposite situation in him being a leaver from a constituency that voted majority to remain. Hence why questions will be asked by the electorate regarding the issue.

Its not the same. Both were elected on the Tory manifesto. Redwood is sticking to it, Boles is not.

[techguyone]

Max_Torque said:

It's also worth noting, that the older you are, the more likely you were to vote Leave, and nearly 500,000 people die of old age each year, so there are about 1.25 Million fewer of the older generation, of which ~65% voted to Leave, so that's another possibly significant swing, when added to the ~ 1M younger people now eligible to vote because they have turned 18 in the last 2.5 years.

I've heard this thing before, it sounded stupid then, and it sounds just as stupid now.

Yes older people die off so there may well be less people in the age bracket due to death.

But

Younger people won't be frozen in time, they too are getting older, so according to the logic once you reach some magic age. Let's call it 48 you magically switch from being a remainer to a leaver, there will be just as many reaching that age as those dying off. Sorry to tell you that the number of leavers won't just magically go down the longer a decision is deferred re a second referendum.

Your argument is just... stupid.


Oh good luck getting very many under the age of 25 to show much interest in politics to influence the younger end in any significant detail, perhaps if you could vote via FaceBook otherwise, you're on a loser there.