How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 9)

[GT119]

Vanden Saab said:

Same question again. How do you think being forced to have another referendum by the EU will go down with the people who will be voting even those who reluctantly voted remain? IMHO it would be a bloodbath, remain would be decimated. I would suggest 75%+ leave

You do realise you are suggesting that 9 million remainers will suddenly decide they want to leave. Wishful thinking maybe...

[GT119]

techguyone said:

Max_Torque said:

It's also worth noting, that the older you are, the more likely you were to vote Leave, and nearly 500,000 people die of old age each year, so there are about 1.25 Million fewer of the older generation, of which ~65% voted to Leave, so that's another possibly significant swing, when added to the ~ 1M younger people now eligible to vote because they have turned 18 in the last 2.5 years.

I've heard this thing before, it sounded stupid then, and it sounds just as stupid now.

Yes older people die off so there may well be less people in the age bracket due to death.

But

Younger people won't be frozen in time, they too are getting older, so according to the logic once you reach some magic age. Let's call it 48 you magically switch from being a remainer to a leaver, there will be just as many reaching that age as those dying off. Sorry to tell you that the number of leavers won't just magically go down the longer a decision is deferred re a second referendum.

Your argument is just... stupid.

There is no evidence that this is happening on Brexit, can you point to any? The floating votes are cancelling each other out as far as I can see.

[Robertj21a]

GT119 said:

You shoot this down every time someone mentions it.

I can’t find any conclusive evidence that the existing voters are changing their stance in any meaningful way, yet the effect of deaths and new voters is very easy to see.

Can you point me to any evidence for the former rather just saying it happens on every other political issue so therefore it must be happening here?

I shoot it down every time because it's a silly argument. There's plenty of evidence that younger voters are more liberal/rebellious - but gradually change their views once they have the burden of greater responsibility - career, mortgage, children etc.
Brexit won't change that happening.

.

[Tony427]

Gribs said:

That doesn't take into account that far more leave voters than remain voters have died since the previous vote and a majority of new voters support remain. The stats suggest that if no one changed their vote at all remain would win just due to deaths of leavers. I'd also expect turn out among the young to be far higher than before as campaigning will target them heavily and over the last couple of years they seem to have become generally more politically engaged.

If leave thought they had a reasonable chance of winning they'd be calling for another referendum to avoid May's st deal that is objectively worse than remaining without even the slight possibility of being advantageous in the future like no deal. The majority of people I know are remainers and a large proportion of them prefer no deal over May's.

Could you point to the independent stats that say that Remain would win as a result of the deaths of Leavers.

[GT119]

Robertj21a said:

I shoot it down every time because it's a silly argument. There's plenty of evidence that younger voters are more liberal/rebellious - but gradually change their views once they have the burden of greater responsibility - career, mortgage, children etc.
Brexit won't change that happening.

.

Righto, so just a guess then.

I like how you are suggesting that a vote to remain is more rebellious than a vote to leave. Thanks for the laugh!

[wc98]

FiF said:

Yep, couple of good posts from ITP above which sum up the feelings of many.

Then then your short sharp put down of Elysium's response just underlines the issue Remain haven't and aren't listening. What happens next when one party just isn't listening, they become irrelevant or steps are taken to make them irrelevant.

as nick boles has just found out.

[bitchstewie]

The idea all constituency MPs should represent their constituents views solely on Brexit has always been absurd.

I didn't realise how absurd until yesterday when I did a little digging and apparently if constituency's in General Elections were measured in the same way Brexit voting was we'd have around 65% of MP's in the HoC representing "leave".

65% of MP's sitting for 5 years baed on one single issue.

Does anyone honestly think that's healthy?

[steve_k]

Elysium said:

steve_k said:

Elysium said:

If we are still in the EU at the time, then they will be our elections also.

It is an awkward situation, so they will want to know our intentions. Since they will not want to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, time for further talks is likely to be out, as is a general election due to the instability that might cause.

Time for a second referendum is probably the only justification they will accept.

I think you might be right it is the next step to reverse the result.

I think the EU will accept a second referendum because it will end the Brexit process. From their perspective there is a good chance that we will decide to remain or accept the withdrawal agreement.

Both are good outcomes for the EU.

They will accept the risk of no-deal through an extension as they face that as a certainty if they refuse.

Conveniently the EU refusing an extension without a referendum removes the decision to have one from our politicians, the EU demands made them do it and they don't want to leave without a deal.

It's all part of the elites plan to stop Brexit and is now finally unfolding.

[wc98]

bhstewie said:

You also have to smile at the knots some people tie themselves up in trying to argue that once our name is removed from the list of EU members here https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countrie... we haven't left the EU.

i have to say, just removing our name from a list of members while maintaining all the regulations would a be tad on the brexit lite side

[don'tbesilly]

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.

Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?

Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...

If the deal somehow gets to a 4th vote it will pass. At that point there will be no time for anything else.

For that reason it must be crunch time next week. I expect the Bryant amendment to be tabled ruling out further votes on the same deal. I also expect the second referendum motions to be rolled out.

The EU clearly don’t want our MEPs there. Getting rid of Farage is probably one of the only consolations they have from this process.

That pesky document still sat in the drawer.

Just as a matter of interest did you watch the Peston show last week?

Peston had Steve Baker in the chair and Peston asked about the WB, Baker's response was very interesting.

If you didn't watch it you should do, it will be on catch up somewhere.

[wc98]

Randy Winkman said:

Perhaps leaving with no deal is like getting divorced with no arrangements at all about who gets the house and kids? But at least you can have sex with other women.

you got it for the brexit analogy read trade deals with other nations in place of sex with other women. mays deal means other nations will be able to have sex with us without our consent (rape) at the same time the eu is having sex with them and us. all sounds a bit seedy to me.

[Dr Jekyll]

steve_k said:

Conveniently the EU refusing an extension without a referendum removes the decision to have one from our politicians, the EU demands made them do it and they don't want to leave without a deal.

It's all part of the elites plan to stop Brexit and is now finally unfolding.

I think even the EU realises that demanding re runs of votes that go against them isn't a good look.

[wc98]

jonnyb said:

And this is the main problem for me. At some point our country has to come back together. Which is one reason a hard brexit on WTO terms would be a disaster, how would that heal our country? 17.4m people voted to leave, but 16.2m voted to stay, and we all have to live together afterwards.

how is this even a problem ? are you out fighting with leave voters at the moment ? refusing to do business with them ? refusing to talk to them in person ? or maybe the only "divide" is when you argue with them on social media ? outside of a few nutjobs on either side i just don't see the issue.

[anonymous-user]

jonnyb said:

Nowhere were people told that leaving without a deal was even an option. People were promised an EAA type deal by the official leave campaign. It’s all over their website.

How you can say there’s any mandate for a no deal brexit is utterly delusional.

Ok, things change in the aftermath of the referendum, but let’s try and get vaguely close to what was actually promised.

What either campaign said was pretty irrelevant to the vast majority of voters, those campaigns only had a very limited effect on the people sitting on the fence. The vast majority had made their mind up years ago.

The campaign period was a joke, both sides were hopeless and mostly ignored as a pantomime.

If we end up with another vote that was simply leave or remain, the majority support wont have shifted, the question is, which way would the floaters have moved based on what we have witnessed over the last nearly 3 years.

I think it would be a much bigger vote to leave, as do my remain voting colleagues.

This is why a stitchup is going to be attempted, where you have a question that makes leave unpalatable. That would be Mays WA v remain. If that is the question democracy is dead in the UK and all hell will break loose.

[anonymous-user]

Robertj21a said:

.

I really can't believe that some people are still trotting out the silliness about older Leavers vs younger Remainers.....

.

Ok, PROVE me wrong: Lets do the numbers


Uk Births and Death figures from .gov statistics

Brexit voter profile from:
Brexit Voting vs age





Assumptions:

We will consider two years - 2016 & 2017 - and use the published Birth/Death statistics for each of those years

Assume that those born in 1998 and 1999, and who haven't died yet turn 18 in these years and vote

Those who died in these two years are removed from each age group (summation of the deaths statistics for each Set)

We will split the population into the age group "sets" as shown in the voting profile above, and that distribution (% leave / remain) is unchanged

+ equals new voter

- equals lost (dead) voter

Assume that people who don't die or become eligible to vote don't change their vote, ie we only look at the change due to births and deaths

We are not considering the distribution of voter turnout vs age, ie we will assume that the same proportion of each age Set would vote as they did in the first vote.

Set changes:

18 to 24 Leave: +252,700 Remain: +1,151,189
25 to 34 Leave: -3,296 Remain: -6,693
35 to 44 Leave: -8,867 Remain: -11,286
45 to 54 Leave: -27,262 Remain: -22,305
55 to 64 Leave: -53,981 Remain: - 42,414
65+ Leave: -670,333 Remain: -345,323

Totals:
Leave looses 511,041 votes
Remain gains 723,167 votes

i.e. a total swing of 1,234,208 votes towards Remain.




Do you disagree? If so, please show your working, assumptions and source

[wc98]

biggles330d said:

As an unashamed remain voter, I'd agree with the above. I didn't vote for it, I don't want it and don't like it, but we choose to leave the EU club utterly of our own choice and against the advise at the time of pretty much every political, business and academic commentator.
We followed the pied piper Farage, Gove and Johnson and made our bed.

All the way through the EU has been crystal clear that you can't have all the benefits and none of the pain. You can't cherry pick what you want, but so many of our politician for whatever reason seem to have total belief that we can and haven't made plans for the reality of this.

Not so long ago the EU very clearly demonstrated - rightly or wrongly - to the Greeks that it has to swollow a bitter pill to fix itself and endure much hardship as a result. Why we thought they wouldn't take the same view with us baffles me.

this also puzzles me. i would be able to understand the angst of many more remain voters if they were wholeheartedly for what the eu stands for. the fact that many emphasise the opt outs we have while arguing strongly for remaining ,knowing the direction of the eu and their salami approach to implementing increasing numbers of rules and regulations, is beyond my reasoning (though many things are ).
good post by the way.

[Elysium]

don'tbesilly said:

Elysium said:

don'tbesilly said:

There are also rumblings of a 4th if the 3rd doesn't hack it, which will take the decision right to the wire, all the time the Withdrawal Bill sits in the top drawer with a clear plan to thwart any attempts to change/amend it.

Does the EU want British MEP's in the EU parliament?

Manfred Weber certainly doesn't, Verhofstadt certainly won't, how many more share their feelings?
The French are going to be causing enough problems for the EU, ask Macron his thoughts on the EU elections.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1095578/brexit-n...

If the deal somehow gets to a 4th vote it will pass. At that point there will be no time for anything else.

For that reason it must be crunch time next week. I expect the Bryant amendment to be tabled ruling out further votes on the same deal. I also expect the second referendum motions to be rolled out.

The EU clearly don’t want our MEPs there. Getting rid of Farage is probably one of the only consolations they have from this process.

That pesky document still sat in the drawer.

Just as a matter of interest did you watch the Peston show last week?

Peston had Steve Baker in the chair and Peston asked about the WB, Baker's response was very interesting.

If you didn't watch it you should do, it will be on catch up somewhere.

I did see it and I also saw Steve baker speaking with raw emotion in parliament after the no deal vote. There is no way that he is going to back Mays deal.

I don’t think there is any leverage around the withdrawal act though. He may try to filibuster his way to no deal if it is approved next week, but that is doomed to fail.

It is the reason why May has proposed a technical extension to article 50 and on my reading a minister can amend the exit date in the withdrawal act without the need for parliament.

If the deal gets passed next week we will leave the EU on that basis.

[anonymous-user]

Max_Torque said:

It's also worth noting, that the older you are, the more likely you were to vote Leave, and nearly 500,000 people die of old age each year, so there are about 1.25 Million fewer of the older generation, of which ~65% voted to Leave, so that's another possibly significant swing, when added to the ~ 1M younger people now eligible to vote because they have turned 18 in the last 2.5 years.

It is not all old people that die, if you look at the mortality statistics and then look at the spread of votes in the middle aged sector, you will see hoping its all the old leavers that are dying off is a nonsense argument.

You should also be well aware that the youth vote split post referendum is not as remain as you may think. Jon Snow got a shock when Channel 4 asked this group the question, it was majority leave because they considered the political implications of overturning the referendum result.

[bitchstewie]

Small point but I've noticed on the radio that the Government adverts that used to refer to "Leaving the EU on the 29th March" now simply say "Leaving the EU".

[anonymous-user]

techguyone said:

I've heard this thing before, it sounded stupid then, and it sounds just as stupid now.

Yes older people die off so there may well be less people in the age bracket due to death.

But

Younger people won't be frozen in time, they too are getting older, so according to the logic once you reach some magic age. Let's call it 48 you magically switch from being a remainer to a leaver, there will be just as many reaching that age as those dying off. Sorry to tell you that the number of leavers won't just magically go down the longer a decision is deferred re a second referendum.

Your argument is just... stupid.


Oh good luck getting very many under the age of 25 to show much interest in politics to influence the younger end in any significant detail, perhaps if you could vote via FaceBook otherwise, you're on a loser there.

er, before you call someone stupid it might be worth considering your own "thinking" on the subject!

See my analysis above for reference. It assumes that no-one changes their vote, simply that old people die and young people become eligible to vote, and that those people will vote in the same proportions (ie same % to leave and stay as their age group at the time of the 1st vote).

This analysis therefore is not subjective, it is objective. It shows a significant objective swing towards remain.

Now, of course, people may change their vote in any age group, but it seems unlikely to me, given the statistical confidence of the distribution shown in the first vote (young = stay, old = remain, but large percentage points) that any "change of mind" will significantly swing new or old voters to change their minds. This is especially true as your voting preference, whilst shown to be a coupled function of your age, is not directly due to your age. So if you are 18 and you vote to stay, you are unlike to vote to leave because you are now 2 years older (ie you are now 20)