How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)
Discussion
There's a load of Brexiteering on PH, and a lot of successful folk. Much of this is hard Brexiteering however our political class wants to avoid one at all costs. If you look elsewhere on the net, there's a lot more of a split and some places pro remain.
There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or a
holes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off.
Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or a
holes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off. Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
citizensm1th said:
Are you saying tuna is wrong in asserting that they are desperate to avoid us going wto?
No, I'm saying that there will be a point in their calculus (and it is perhaps closer than we think) where the advantage to them is outweighed by the opportunity cost of the things they are not doing instead. The one thing I think we can say with certainty is that the strategy of locking us into the WA is unlikely to pay off in the next few days. If a long extension is sought, the calculation changes.Any extension comes with the additional risks of an A50 revocation and a new leadership going for a clean Brexit (possibly with a fresh mandate) at any time for 12/24 months. That is a very long period of uncertainty.
And there is still no guarantee that the UK will come to any resolution any time soon. At the end, leaving/remaining is a binary question and needs a clear answer, which is why MPs don't have the bottle to overrule the referendum result in an unqualified way.
Re-running a referendum in no way offers assurance that the "right" answer would be produced.
And what Harold Macmillan termed 'events' have a habit of obtruding - who with any certainty would predict the next refugee crisis/banking collapse? Just one of those could crystallise a massive mood swing in favour of an abrupt leave and, let's face it, even the most ardent Remainer would struggle think of an equivalent upside possibility.
I also think the EU leadership has been spooked by the Rees-Mogg suggestion that we'd be inside the tent, pissing in, for quite a while (although I'm sure he'd deplore such language). Which is, I'm quite sure, why JRM said it. The EU knows that TM will be deposed and probably estimates that her successor might well connive in such behaviour. After all, a committed Leaver is unlikely to object if the EU kicks the UK out
, which is just about the only sanction they would have, having granted an extension. Chicken Chaser said:
There's a load of Brexiteering on PH, and a lot of successful folk. Much of this is hard Brexiteering however our political class wants to avoid one at all costs. If you look elsewhere on the net, there's a lot more of a split and some places pro remain.
There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or aholes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off.
Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
Yes, this:There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or a
holes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off. Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/03/06/sl...
Or (I think) in the original German here:
https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/sd-2019-04-felbe...
Being studiously ignored by Remainers.
I've not seen any recent studies on the results of a WTO Brexit that show negative outcomes - most are somewhat older and strangely rely on the UK making no attempt to mitigate the effects of exit and just accepting it (unlike the German analysis). They have also been criticised for assuming that all UK wealth is generated by importing ever more cheap labour (which is assumed to stop under Brexit of any shade).
Edited by Tuna on Friday 5th April 22:08
digimeistter said:
GT119 said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
GT119 said:
The full results of that poll are:
If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
Interesting.If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
But these polls mean nothing and seem to change depending on who wants what.
The best sign was in 2016
My only interest in them is to confirm my own belief that Parliament’s position on no deal is correct and that no deal has never had majority support from the electorate.
Chicken Chaser said:
There's a load of Brexiteering on PH, and a lot of successful folk. Much of this is hard Brexiteering however our political class wants to avoid one at all costs. If you look elsewhere on the net, there's a lot more of a split and some places pro remain.
There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or aholes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off.
Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
Yes, if you want to avoid the knockabout, look at the Briefings for Brexit, Economists for Brexit and Brexit Central websites - these are all three partisan but generally high quality, with sane contributions from people who are at least as qualified as their opposition. There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or a
holes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off. Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
Comment Central and Politics Home have a wide spread of pro- and anti-Brexit views and can provide useful insight.
HTH
Quite pissed but reflecting back onto earlier discussions with the missus many pints ago.
Really summarising but...
Theresa May is screwed on so many levels that she has finally invited a Marxist to negotiate things with the Tories. That is a sign of how bad things are. She has no way out of this st.
We are told we are miles behind the EU preparedness in terms of no deal.
So, she just asks for extension after extension to drag it out while we prepare for the obvious end which is a no deal exit. Meanwhile, we get as prepared as we can to compete with the ultra prepared EU for no deal, until the feckless TM allows the EU to spot what she is up to. Oh my... they refuse an extension.
Then we exit WTO, and it is not “all her fault”, it is those nasty unelected beurocrats at the EU., but the impact is less as we have more time to prepare.
And unicorns roam the wild savannahs of central London, and Canary Wharf bankers doff their caps to England shirted dustbinmen while the UK massively benefits from mediocre trade deals and the EU sinks into recession and the euro collapses with all of the linked consequences and cake abounds in the UK.
Well I did say I was a bit pissed.
Really summarising but...
Theresa May is screwed on so many levels that she has finally invited a Marxist to negotiate things with the Tories. That is a sign of how bad things are. She has no way out of this s
t.We are told we are miles behind the EU preparedness in terms of no deal.
So, she just asks for extension after extension to drag it out while we prepare for the obvious end which is a no deal exit. Meanwhile, we get as prepared as we can to compete with the ultra prepared EU for no deal, until the feckless TM allows the EU to spot what she is up to. Oh my... they refuse an extension.
Then we exit WTO, and it is not “all her fault”, it is those nasty unelected beurocrats at the EU., but the impact is less as we have more time to prepare.
And unicorns roam the wild savannahs of central London, and Canary Wharf bankers doff their caps to England shirted dustbinmen while the UK massively benefits from mediocre trade deals and the EU sinks into recession and the euro collapses with all of the linked consequences and cake abounds in the UK.
Well I did say I was a bit pissed.
Chicken Chaser said:
There's a load of Brexiteering on PH, and a lot of successful folk. Much of this is hard Brexiteering however our political class wants to avoid one at all costs. If you look elsewhere on the net, there's a lot more of a split and some places pro remain.
There's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or aholes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off.
Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
The "bThere's so much divided opinion that I've given up knowing which one should be favoured. The politicians supporting hard Brexit seem to be the biggest loonies or a
holes in the commons. If Francois or Mogg told me to get involved in a get rich quick scheme, I'd tell them to fk right off. Is there material which supports a hard Brexit on WTO as favouring our economy contrary to what all the so called professionals are crying about?
ds" that caused John Major trouble during Maastricht were also labeled loonies at the time. They were on the right side of history and were proven to be telling the truth about EU expansion of powers. It was during that debate UK should have called a halt to our membership, but the people with sense were shouted down and humiliated.citizensm1th said:
so no chance of the EU not extending the brexit deadline then? If they are so desperate to keep us talking it kind of negates your argument you made in the last thread about the uk being back in the no deal zone again
"If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
that will be the case. did you miss the "patience" statement from i think barnier the other day. they will do all they can to avoid no deal without giving the impression they care.they have played a good game, made a lot easier by may's lack of spine."If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
for me hardball should have been played at the outset. for it to occur now is going to leave a bad feeling on both sides right at the start of the actual meaningful negotiations (the ones that matter, not may's current delusional meaningful nonsense that couldn't pass a u-bend never mind parliament ) though i think revoking article 50 now has a higher chance of happening than leaving on wto rules.
psi310398 said:
Well, then we tell them in the nicest possible terms to do one and encourage business elsewhere.
There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
EDIT
I'd go further and make it government policy that we will prioritise trade deals with anywhere and everywhere else and give them time to establish a foothold in the UK market before we discuss any trade deal with the EU. That should encourage others to get cracking on agreeing deals with us.
Glad you're not a diplomat, cos you ain't got a clue.There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
EDIT
I'd go further and make it government policy that we will prioritise trade deals with anywhere and everywhere else and give them time to establish a foothold in the UK market before we discuss any trade deal with the EU. That should encourage others to get cracking on agreeing deals with us.
Edited by psi310398 on Friday 5th April 21:10
Jimboka said:
digimeistter said:
Interesting Sky poll
41% want no deal.
And this is from Sky!!!
I wonder if they would regret it in a few years, when their benefits have stopped & they are eating gruel 41% want no deal.
And this is from Sky!!!
Thankfully Parliament & EU will save them from themselves, although it would be an interesting experiment !
Who'd have thought slightly less growth would lead to gruel.
Interesting thoughts from a Remainer about breaking the backstop impasse with a frontstop:
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-frontstop-approac...
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-frontstop-approac...
Integroo said:
Glad you're not a diplomat, cos you ain't got a clue.
Funny you should say that. I had a long discussion over lunch not long ago with a very experienced non-British trade diplomat on this very topic, and his view that it was exactly the right way to go, but then he represents a country where the civil service has plenty of real experience of doing trade deals very successfully.
this place is definitely at the milder end of online criticism. psi310398 said:
Interesting thoughts from a Remainer about breaking the backstop impasse with a frontstop:
https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-frontstop-approac...
Another article which will be furiously ignored by Remainers. https://briefingsforbrexit.com/a-frontstop-approac...
Funnily enough it says much of what has been said before on here by people who don't believe an exit automatically requires a hard border. It also nixes the idea that a customs union magically removes the issue of the border.
On holiday travelling around China with some Aussies who from their perspective see the Brexit issue as the country being held to ransom by a set of duplicitous mp’s. Wife was incensed that they had brought the subject up on Brexit free holiday.
We also went to a calligraphy class where we had to write our countries name in Chinese.
In Chinese script the UK is written as “ Hero Country “.
Bout time we had a few of them.
Cheers
Tony
We also went to a calligraphy class where we had to write our countries name in Chinese.
In Chinese script the UK is written as “ Hero Country “.
Bout time we had a few of them.
Cheers
Tony
Can't be bothered to find the old thread but has this tweet from Rees-Mogg today been mentioned?
"@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and st in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.
The bloke is a fking weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.
I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
"@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and s
t in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.The bloke is a f
king weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
Tuna said:
Another article which will be furiously ignored by Remainers.
Funnily enough it says much of what has been said before on here by people who don't believe an exit automatically requires a hard border. It also nixes the idea that a customs union magically removes the issue of the border.
Again, I am puzzled how you apparently voted remain, given your vociferous views towards people who did vote that way.Funnily enough it says much of what has been said before on here by people who don't believe an exit automatically requires a hard border. It also nixes the idea that a customs union magically removes the issue of the border.
OzzyR1 said:
Can't be bothered to find the old thread but has this tweet from Rees-Mogg today been mentioned?
"@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and st in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.
The bloke is a fking weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.
I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
Well yes. It was discussed to death. "@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and s
t in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.The bloke is a f
king weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
I’m intrigued by the claim that as a Tory voter you will never vote again until his ilk are out; good stuff. Are you a member of a local CA? How is your local MP been voting?
I would note that the vast majority (74% according to latest comreg poll) of Tory voters are now to no deal.
It is a highly likely scenario that if the exit day is pushed back again then pro exit parties will elect wrecking representatives. This is hardly a surprise; it’s cause and effect.
Edited by Ridgemont on Saturday 6th April 02:11
OzzyR1 said:
Can't be bothered to find the old thread but has this tweet from Rees-Mogg today been mentioned?
"@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and st in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.
The bloke is a fking weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.
I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
Maybe one of his weirdly named kids got hold of his phone and tweeted on his behalf. Or maybe he’s an idiot."@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes."
Is this the same Jacob R-M who said the UK had no power to do any of these things in the EU and that’s why we had to leave?
On top of that, his tweet sounds like it's from a teenager: if I can't get my own way I'll throw all of my toys out of the pram, scream at the top of my voice and s
t in my nappy. If I can't have it, I'll mess it up for everyone else - proper playground stuff.The bloke is a f
king weasel, a liar and a hypocrite.I have been a Tory voter since I was eligible in the 80's but will not do so again until the majority of the current MP's have gone.
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