How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)

[gooner1]

Toaster said:

Just a thought here to all those that think that the Irish backstop is something that can be disregarded

"Pelosi warns there will be no U.S.-U.K. trade deal if Brexit harms the Irish peace accord" https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pelosi-warns-...

So much for "the easiest deal in the world" and the notion that we can write our own rules and sod everyone else

Ah, Pelosi .
Remind me again who is it that is currently the U.S. President, and who , like it or not,
is probably going to be the next one?

While you're at it, could you also remind me who it is that has stated they want a hard border
erected? Couple of clues to help you along, it ain't the UK or the ROI.

[oyster]

PRTVR said:

oyster said:

PRTVR said:

oyster said:

Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m merely flagging the reality of the situation.

There is zero choice but to compromise. The arithmetic in both the nation and in Parliament dictates this.

What am I missing ?
Did not parliament put the decision to the people, the people voted to leave , where is the arithmetic that dictates compromise ?

The arithmetic is in plain sight. 52/48 is damn close to evenly split.

And have you been under a rock to not notice how split Parliament is too?

The nation is split down the middle. How can anyone not see that?

North - leave
South - remain

Old - leave
Young - remain

White - leave
BAME - remain

Rural - leave
Urban - remain

Split down the middle.

In one of the largest turnout in history more than a million more people voted to leave than remain, only one vote was required to carry the vote.
Parliament is split because basically it's full of remainers, who do not want to do what they promised to do, due partially to the Hobson choice they have been given a bad deal or no deal,
some see what they are doing as a way to overturn the referendum result,
the Liberal democrats party political broadcast said they would overturn the referendum result,
Think about that for a moment, politicians who would ignore democracy, this is the mad world we live in at the moment.
There will always be a split with a binary choice that's how mathematics works.

Despite not being a remainer myself, my pragmatic approach seems to be incurring ire from Brexiteers on here.

Politicians are in the business of getting elected. Their split simply reflects the split in the nation on Brexit. Had the result been 65/35 in favour of leaving, we'd have left by now as they would have less to fear from the 35%.

But it was 52/48, and however binary that might be, politicians' main focus is on getting re-elected. What they are trying to do is make as many people happy as possible, or more likely ps off as few people as possible.

Some of them may decide they would rather ps off the 52% than the 48%, possibly by making a judgement that some of the 52% might stay onside for other reasons (this applies to lots of Labour MPs in leave constituencies).

[slow_poke]

gooner1 said:

Toaster said:

Just a thought here to all those that think that the Irish backstop is something that can be disregarded

"Pelosi warns there will be no U.S.-U.K. trade deal if Brexit harms the Irish peace accord" https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/pelosi-warns-...

So much for "the easiest deal in the world" and the notion that we can write our own rules and sod everyone else

Ah, Pelosi .
Remind me again who is it that is currently the U.S. President, and who , like it or not,
is probably going to be the next one?

While you're at it, could you also remind me who it is that has stated they want a hard border
erected? Couple of clues to help you along, it ain't the UK or the ROI.

I wish, I really really wish, that UK brexit supporters would engage with reality over the Irish Border/Backstop question. It need to be resolved to the satisfaction of all parties if Brexit is going to be a success. It's infantile to assume no responsibility for it, or to offload responsibility to others. Worse, it's a betrayal of Brexit to let others drive this agenda whilst heads are firmly stuck in sand or up arses.

That border has been weaponised, politically. By Ireland and by the EU. That's the reality. That has to be dealt with effectively for Brexit to survive. Poo-Pooing the likes of Pelosi or Boyle as unimportant is a terrible idea. These are extremely powerful american politicans that the UK should be cultivating and courting to bring on-side. Instead the Irish have shown how to do it.

[Digga]

Piha said:

Digga said:

Piha said:

crankedup said:

I still find it amusing that budgie disappears and mx makes a sudden appearance within hours of budgies departure.Couple of other posters pull the same lamentable trick.

Serious question - I notice that some posters accuse posters with opposing views of being somebody else or being a previously banned poster. What is the fascination with this and why do certain posters insist in repeatedly doing this time and time again?

Dave?

Is that you?

• waves at Sarah*

Shhh.

Don't call me that on weekdays.

[andymadmak]

slow_poke said:

I wish, I really really wish, that UK brexit supporters would engage with reality over the Irish Border/Backstop question. It need to be resolved to the satisfaction of all parties if Brexit is going to be a success. It's infantile to assume no responsibility for it, or to offload responsibility to others. Worse, it's a betrayal of Brexit to let others drive this agenda whilst heads are firmly stuck in sand or up arses.

That border has been weaponised, politically. By Ireland and by the EU. That's the reality. That has to be dealt with effectively for Brexit to survive. Poo-Pooing the likes of Pelosi or Boyle as unimportant is a terrible idea. These are extremely powerful american politicans that the UK should be cultivating and courting to bring on-side. Instead the Irish have shown how to do it.

So the EU and the Irish have weaponised the border (I agree with you 100% on this) - but somehow it's the job of the UK to fix it single handedly? Fixing it would appear to involve giving the Irish and the EU something that the UK cannot give. Naked blackmail designed to prevent Brexit. Do you think that that is acceptable?

If they were soooooo interested in the NI peace process then perhaps the EU and the Irish should have thought about that before they weaponised the border? Perhaps the EU and the Irish are the ones responsible for jeopardising the NI peace process by weaponising the border AND refusing to consider sensible technical solutions to the movement of goods, given that the CTA already covers the movement of people?

Maybe, just maybe, you should be turning your ire regarding the situation onto the EU and the Irish?

[Scootersp]

slow_poke said:

I wish, I really really wish, that UK brexit supporters would engage with reality over the Irish Border/Backstop question. It need to be resolved to the satisfaction of all parties if Brexit is going to be a success. It's infantile to assume no responsibility for it, or to offload responsibility to others. Worse, it's a betrayal of Brexit to let others drive this agenda whilst heads are firmly stuck in sand or up arses.

That border has been weaponised, politically. By Ireland and by the EU. That's the reality. That has to be dealt with effectively for Brexit to survive. Poo-Pooing the likes of Pelosi or Boyle as unimportant is a terrible idea. These are extremely powerful american politicans that the UK should be cultivating and courting to bring on-side. Instead the Irish have shown how to do it.

It seems odd to me purely on a practical level how much this has been a factor in the whole brexit debate. Neither Ireland is changing nationality, the borders not shifting, no one wants a hard border or a reigniting of 'the troubles' do they? so it all seems like the issue is being stoked up to be a massive one when it's hard to see from my lay man point of view why it should be such an issue.

From what I have seen so far it seems almost impossible to "be resolved to the satisfaction of all parties" as like most things Brexit views are quite polar?

Does this not add weight to the EU interference thing ie we (any country) can't extract ourselves or arrange things directly ie UK to Ireland without the EU involvement?

[crankedup]

oyster said:

PRTVR said:

oyster said:

PRTVR said:

oyster said:

Don’t shoot the messenger. I’m merely flagging the reality of the situation.

There is zero choice but to compromise. The arithmetic in both the nation and in Parliament dictates this.

What am I missing ?
Did not parliament put the decision to the people, the people voted to leave , where is the arithmetic that dictates compromise ?

The arithmetic is in plain sight. 52/48 is damn close to evenly split.

And have you been under a rock to not notice how split Parliament is too?

The nation is split down the middle. How can anyone not see that?

North - leave
South - remain

Old - leave
Young - remain

White - leave
BAME - remain

Rural - leave
Urban - remain

Split down the middle.

In one of the largest turnout in history more than a million more people voted to leave than remain, only one vote was required to carry the vote.
Parliament is split because basically it's full of remainers, who do not want to do what they promised to do, due partially to the Hobson choice they have been given a bad deal or no deal,
some see what they are doing as a way to overturn the referendum result,
the Liberal democrats party political broadcast said they would overturn the referendum result,
Think about that for a moment, politicians who would ignore democracy, this is the mad world we live in at the moment.
There will always be a split with a binary choice that's how mathematics works.

Despite not being a remainer myself, my pragmatic approach seems to be incurring ire from Brexiteers on here.

Politicians are in the business of getting elected. Their split simply reflects the split in the nation on Brexit. Had the result been 65/35 in favour of leaving, we'd have left by now as they would have less to fear from the 35%.

But it was 52/48, and however binary that might be, politicians' main focus is on getting re-elected. What they are trying to do is make as many people happy as possible, or more likely ps off as few people as possible.

Some of them may decide they would rather ps off the 52% than the 48%, possibly by making a judgement that some of the 52% might stay onside for other reasons (this applies to lots of Labour MPs in leave constituencies).

I believe that most have grasped that. It is the very facts that you identify that are causing the political problems facing the Nation. MPs more concerned with thier own situation rather than the National democracy. Thier efforts will almost certainly be rewarded by the electorates boots up thier backsides.

[crankedup]

Piha said:

crankedup said:

I still find it amusing that budgie disappears and mx makes a sudden appearance within hours of budgies departure.Couple of other posters pull the same lamentable trick.

Serious question - I notice that some posters accuse posters with opposing views of being somebody else or being a previously banned poster. What is the fascination with this and why do certain posters insist in repeatedly doing this time and time again?

Apart from the mild amusement, why do some posters, all on the remain camp, do this. In one fairly recent example a remain poster answered to himself under his two names. For the life of me why is this, what possible gain is available from it.
Of course it’s neither here nor there and is just part of the froth.

[gooner1]

slow_poke said:

That border has been weaponised, politically. By Ireland and by the EU. That's the reality. That has to be dealt with effectively for Brexit to survive.

Snipped to get to the crux of the matter.

Ireland and the EU did indeed weaponise the border politically.
Now let them de-weaponise it, or let the EU carry out their threat of building a hard border.

I believe a senior member of the EU has already suggested that a customs border need
not be in the location under debate.

[Scootersp]

crankedup said:

I believe that most have grasped that. It is the very facts that you identify that are causing the political problems facing the Nation. MPs more concerned with thier own situation rather than the National democracy. Thier efforts will almost certainly be rewarded by the electorates boots up thier backsides.

I think in years gone by the odd policy promise not being followed through and has gone relatively unnoticed by the public or a raised eyebrow and 'typical politician' thought goes through your head, I think though that a referendum with a one question asked directly to us, has a far more personal impact if it's ignored.

I am probably one of the least 'engaged' people I know re politics but even I can see the potential for anger/resentment from this, as a remain voter it still feel it's sort of wrong, I think the politicians underestimate this, but over time perhaps feeling will diminish and they we escape any real damage to the walls of their 'bubble'.

[jtremlett]

Toaster said:

...So much for "the easiest deal in the world" and the notion that we can write our own rules and sod everyone else

I'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

[don'tbesilly]

Squiddly Diddly said:

don'tbesilly said:

Brexit is still causing PM sleepless nights, not something he experienced back in 2016.

Wrong, as always.

About what - the name change?
The sleepless nights?
Or the ability to sleep through the whole day?

[Garvin]

jtremlett said:

'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

No need to be “heavily sick” of it. Yes it’s a juvenile attempt at spin or, even worse, a complete lack of comprehension of what was actually said. Just treat it with the contempt it richly deserves, contemplate on the intellectual ability of the poster and then treat anything else they post accordingly. Simples.

[gooner1]

jtremlett said:

'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

These are not just lies, these are specially selected NP&E Remainer lies.

[Squiddly Diddly]

jtremlett said:

'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

Not really.

He knew it would be very difficult but didn't want to say so as that was contrary to his leaver utopia message, so he put in a caveat that politicians (of which he is one) would obstruct it.

Essentially he lied to you.

Similar to Rees-Mogg's over 50 years.

Edited by Squiddly Diddly on Thursday 18th April 12:35

[don'tbesilly]

Garvin said:

jtremlett said:

'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

No need to be “heavily sick” of it. Yes it’s a juvenile attempt at spin or, even worse, a complete lack of comprehension of what was actually said. Just treat it with the contempt it richly deserves, contemplate on the intellectual ability of the poster and then treat anything else they post accordingly. Simples.

The Remain campaign or whoever is behind the posters pulls the same stunts with the posters which some delight in posting up, none of them reflect the truth/reality of 2016 or the quotes prior to the referendum,everyone is either a partial quote, or a misrepresentation of such but it makes for good propaganda.

[amusingduck]

Squiddly Diddly said:

jtremlett said:

'm heartily sick of that being quoted without the rest of what he actually said which was "The only reason we wouldn't come to a free and open agreement is because politics gets in the way of economics" and completely changes the sense of it and very obviously the politics has got in the way.

Not really.

He knew it would be very difficult but didn't want to say so as that was contrary to his leaver utopia message, so he put in a caveat that politicians (of which he is one) would obstruct it.

Essentially he lied to you.

Have you ever actually watched the video? Doesn't seem like it

[crankedup]

Scootersp said:

crankedup said:

I believe that most have grasped that. It is the very facts that you identify that are causing the political problems facing the Nation. MPs more concerned with thier own situation rather than the National democracy. Thier efforts will almost certainly be rewarded by the electorates boots up thier backsides.

I think in years gone by the odd policy promise not being followed through and has gone relatively unnoticed by the public or a raised eyebrow and 'typical politician' thought goes through your head, I think though that a referendum with a one question asked directly to us, has a far more personal impact if it's ignored.

I am probably one of the least 'engaged' people I know re politics but even I can see the potential for anger/resentment from this, as a remain voter it still feel it's sort of wrong, I think the politicians underestimate this, but over time perhaps feeling will diminish and they we escape any real damage to the walls of their 'bubble'.

Completely agree, if people are honest with themselves most would agree that this situation is
politically extremely serious. Yes over the decades those manifesto promises broken have caused short term noise and discontentment. As you mention, this fades and life goes on for all concerned.
This time it feels very different, a major political promise, a National referendum with an outcome being disrespected by the HoC. Protests from the leave camp have been very gently
brewing, no real noise, threat, protests, until now. Brexit Party is going to decimate the voting patterns that we have seen in decades. Those unable to stomach Brexit must recognise the damage being created by the political situation and perhaps will vote for independents at the next GE.?

[wisbech]

gooner1 said:

Ah, Pelosi .
Remind me again who is it that is currently the U.S. President, and who , like it or not,
is probably going to be the next one?

While you're at it, could you also remind me who it is that has stated they want a hard border
erected? Couple of clues to help you along, it ain't the UK or the ROI.

Under the US constitution- treaties need to be ratified by 2/3 of the Senate - not the president, not even a majority

An executive agreement on trade would need both houses approval (but not 2/3)

Either way, you need Pelosi. If she says no, enough Democrat senators will vote no to a treaty, and as she controls the HoR, obviously the executive route is out...

[Helicopter123]

crankedup said:

I still find it amusing that budgie disappears and mx makes a sudden appearance within hours of budgies departure.Couple of other posters pull the same lamentable trick.

Do we really need to do this all over again?

Last time around, Mods looked at it, and were completely satisfied that no-one was posting under multiple names.

Those who continued with their snide comments eventually got banned.

It would be a shame for some of you to end up in the same place again.