How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)

[loafer123]

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

[Robertj21a]

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I think I can honestly say that I've never seen any suggestion from a Leaver that we are expecting gold. On the contrary, many of us have clearly accepted that life could get a bit more difficult for, say, 5-10 years. We're not leaving in the expectation of riches, we're leaving because we have been given our first opportunity to do so - and we can ensure that future generations won't then have the same difficulties to overcome.

[powerstroke]

deadslow said:

its been a good laugh watching the Tories prove themselves unfit to govern,
.

Yes until you see labour 10% ahead in the polls !! Im sure it will be fun ...................

[chrispmartha]

Robertj21a said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I think I can honestly say that I've never seen any suggestion from a Leaver that we are expecting gold. On the contrary, many of us have clearly accepted that life could get a bit more difficult for, say, 5-10 years. We're not leaving in the expectation of riches, we're leaving because we have been given our first opportunity to do so - and we can ensure that future generations won't then have the same difficulties to overcome.

Aahh but its ok to assume the people especially younger people that voted to remain think that everything about the EU glitters, some don’t but still think it’s positives outweigh the negatives.

[chrispmartha]

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

[loafer123]

chrispmartha said:

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

I don’t assume remainers aren’t realistic about Brexit....I have never said or implied that!

I think you are projecting your own thoughts onto others.

I believe that the change the E.U. needs to undertake is too great for the UK to bear, but I quite understand that some remainers want to be in an E.U. Superstate.

[chrispmartha]

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

I don’t assume remainers aren’t realistic about Brexit....I have never said or implied that!

I think you are projecting your own thoughts onto others.

I believe that the change the E.U. needs to undertake is too great for the UK to bear, but I quite understand that some remainers want to be in an E.U. Superstate.

No sorry you didn’t so apologies for implying you did, Robert (who my original reply was aimed at) did though.

[FiF]

loafer123 said:

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

Good post, said genuinely without sarcasm.

Generally my own view with a slight deviation, in that a customs union can technically exist for a single product or sector, you might then call it a trade deal perhaps but nevertheless. A big part of the issue is people not understanding how these things work and wanting, one side very much in particular for an all encompassing one size fits all arrangement as that keeps power in their hands.

As said later this is currently too big a change for them to overcome for various reasons.

[loafer123]

FiF said:

Good post, said genuinely without sarcasm.

Generally my own view with a slight deviation, in that a customs union can technically exist for a single product or sector, you might then call it a trade deal perhaps but nevertheless. A big part of the issue is people not understanding how these things work and wanting, one side very much in particular for an all encompassing one size fits all arrangement as that keeps power in their hands.

As said later this is currently too big a change for them to overcome for various reasons.

I suspect that may be what they are working on...an agricultural Customs Union and agreed food standards.

It would deal with most of the Irish Border issue.

[ClaphamGT3]

loafer123 said:

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

Although this is curiously at odds with what the EU - and it's member nations - are actually saying and doing

[ClaphamGT3]

Tuna said:

I'm not sure that telling these people that the entire UK political system and economy will stop to appease their desires, and we dare not make changes for fear of offending them is a good idea. Deliberately conflating any changes whatsoever in Ireland with threats to the GFA is a cheap strategy and runs counter to the international policy of forthright condemnation of the troubles.

It has been reassuring to see that the recent events have been treated exactly that way - with complete condemnation as a thoughtless act - rather than by self elected guardians of the peace process claiming that it's "because Brexit".

Like the other guy further up the thread, you have just re-iterated exactly my point; Northern Ireland remains extremely vulnerable to a return to organised crime, shrouded in a miasma of sectarian sentiment. The GFA and the politics that surround it represent a very fragile peace. Threatening it through a botched Brexit will lead to one of two things - a return to crime and violence or a unification of Ireland under the republic.

[Jazzy Jag]

ClaphamGT3 said:

loafer123 said:

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

Although this is curiously at odds with what the EU - and it's member nations - are actually saying and doing

I think that they want us gone but would rather like us to stick around, close enough to pay unto the pot every year.

[Garvin]

ClaphamGT3 said:

Like the other guy further up the thread, you have just re-iterated exactly my point; Northern Ireland remains extremely vulnerable to a return to organised crime, shrouded in a miasma of sectarian sentiment. The GFA and the politics that surround it represent a very fragile peace. Threatening it through a botched Brexit will lead to one of two things - a return to crime and violence or a unification of Ireland under the republic.

If this is so important and the consequences of getting it wrong so dire then why are the ROI and EU effectively 'weaponising' it and refusing any sort of compromise? Sorting this out as a bespoke agreement with UK is surely more important to ROI and EU as well as UK than just sticking to existing EU 'rules' which, to be frank, have been 'adjusted' many times in the past when it suits.

[Squiddly Diddly]

Garvin said:

If this is so important and the consequences of getting it wrong so dire then why are the ROI and EU effectively 'weaponising' it and refusing any sort of compromise? Sorting this out as a bespoke agreement with UK is surely more important to ROI and EU as well as UK than just sticking to existing EU 'rules' which, to be frank, have been 'adjusted' many times in the past when it suits.

They have, it's called the backstop to be utilised should the UK:EU free trade area not come to fruition in time.

[FiF]

Garvin said:

ClaphamGT3 said:

Like the other guy further up the thread, you have just re-iterated exactly my point; Northern Ireland remains extremely vulnerable to a return to organised crime, shrouded in a miasma of sectarian sentiment. The GFA and the politics that surround it represent a very fragile peace. Threatening it through a botched Brexit will lead to one of two things - a return to crime and violence or a unification of Ireland under the republic.

If this is so important and the consequences of getting it wrong so dire then why are the ROI and EU effectively 'weaponising' it and refusing any sort of compromise? Sorting this out as a bespoke agreement with UK is surely more important to ROI and EU as well as UK than just sticking to existing EU 'rules' which, to be frank, have been 'adjusted' many times in the past when it suits.

It's a fair comment that the situation in Ireland is still very unstable, no one envies PSNI, just how many Tangi, Pangolin or Penman armoured Landies do they have now? Thick end of 500? It was supposed to go down to 250 under GFA, and indeed some of the Tangis under the reduction were redistributed round mainland forces.

[amusingduck]

chrispmartha said:

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

Because of their past behaviour? Greece is fked, IIRC they'll still be in bad shape from their "bailout" in 75 years or so. Greece wasn't bailed out, European banks were, and the EU was happy to "poison the political well" as Mark Blyth describes it because they'd rather people are spitting venom at the lazy workshy non-tax-paying Greeks than admit that the banks fked up. Again.

I cannot support a union that throws a whole country to the dogs for the benefit of foreign banks. The euro doesn't work without Germany paying large amounts to southern Europe, and that idea is absolutely nuclear in Germany. I'm convinced that it will get worse before it gets better, if it gets better at all, and I want to be as distanced as is practical if it goes pop.

[chrispmartha]

amusingduck said:

chrispmartha said:

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

Because of their past behaviour? Greece is fked, IIRC they'll still be in bad shape from their "bailout" in 75 years or so. Greece wasn't bailed out, European banks were, and the EU was happy to "poison the political well" as Mark Blyth describes it because they'd rather people are spitting venom at the lazy workshy non-tax-paying Greeks than admit that the banks fked up. Again.

I cannot support a union that throws a whole country to the dogs for the benefit of foreign banks. The euro doesn't work without Germany paying large amounts to southern Europe, and that idea is absolutely nuclear in Germany. I'm convinced that it will get worse before it gets better, if it gets better at all, and I want to be as distanced as is practical if it goes pop.

None of that answers my point, it’s just your reasons for voting to Leave

[amusingduck]

chrispmartha said:

amusingduck said:

chrispmartha said:

loafer123 said:

chrispmartha said:

vonuber said:

Robertj21a said:

Given the likely difficulties in the EU in years to come I would hope that the 'youngsters' have enough understanding and foresight to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

But not all those who wander are lost. Also, the old that is strong does not wither as deep roots are not reached by the frost.

Flip it around, I would hope that Brexiteerd have enough understanding to recognise that all that glitters is not gold.

I am very realistic about Brexit, but it definitely remains the preferable option for both the UK and the E.U.

I would be quite happy with both EEA and EFTA (as I have said before on here) but not a Customs Union which prevents trade deals. That is simple sovereignty.

From the E.U. perspective, they need us gone to turn into a federal superstate or fail. The outcome of that is not for us to determine and I wish them well.

I was being flippant to prove a point, you say you’re realistic about Brexit, why do you assume remainers aren't realistic about the EU and some of its downsides but still think it’s better to be in it?

Because of their past behaviour? Greece is fked, IIRC they'll still be in bad shape from their "bailout" in 75 years or so. Greece wasn't bailed out, European banks were, and the EU was happy to "poison the political well" as Mark Blyth describes it because they'd rather people are spitting venom at the lazy workshy non-tax-paying Greeks than admit that the banks fked up. Again.

I cannot support a union that throws a whole country to the dogs for the benefit of foreign banks. The euro doesn't work without Germany paying large amounts to southern Europe, and that idea is absolutely nuclear in Germany. I'm convinced that it will get worse before it gets better, if it gets better at all, and I want to be as distanced as is practical if it goes pop.

None of that answers my point, it’s just your reasons for voting to Leave

That's (one reason) why I think remainers aren't realistic about the EU and its downsides.

What is the realistic argument against the EU's willingness to ruin a member state's economy for the benefit of the bigger countries banks?

This isn't a virtue signalling "Remainers don't care about Greeks!" argument, I don't care about Greek people. Neither does the EU evidently, and that is what concerns me. The people are treated as an obstacle to progession, rather than the family they protect.

[Squiddly Diddly]

amusingduck said:

That's (one reason) why I think remainers aren't realistic about the EU and its downsides.

What is the realistic argument against the EU's willingness to ruin a member state's economy for the benefit of the bigger countries banks?

This isn't a virtue signalling "Remainers don't care about Greeks!" argument, I don't care about Greek people. Neither does the EU evidently, and that is what concerns me. The people are treated as an obstacle to progession, rather than the family they protect.

Are you saying the EU should not have bailed out Greece?

Was Greece forced to accept the bail out?

[soupdragon1]

Garvin said:

If this is so important and the consequences of getting it wrong so dire then why are the ROI and EU effectively 'weaponising' it and refusing any sort of compromise? Sorting this out as a bespoke agreement with UK is surely more important to ROI and EU as well as UK than just sticking to existing EU 'rules' which, to be frank, have been 'adjusted' many times in the past when it suits.

Weaponising it is a term you've probably heard coming from parliament, but can anyone begin to describe what that actually means?
Under a full departure from CU/SM, significant changes will happen at Dover/Calais for example, and we fully accept and understand that, yet we talk about those changes not being necessary in Ireland? It's a bizarre logic.