How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 10)
Discussion
Tuna said:
citizensm1th said:
if we did that we can kiss goodbye to any trade deal with the eu
What nonsense. On what basis do you think they'd refuse a trade deal with the country that manages one third of the entire EU debt, and currently has a trade deficit with them worth billions? They're teetering on the edge of recession and we're leaders on a whole range of technology and pharmaceuticals.When one of their largest customers would be looking to buy directly from their competitors, you can bet a trade deal would arrive.
citizensm1th said:
Oh i have no doubt they will offer us a trade deal, it will just have a few conditions attached such as the back stop and a few billion they think we owe them. in fact they have already stated that in the event of a no deal brexit any trade deal will be conditional on the back stop and the cash.
leaving with no deal will not stop the eu insisting on the backstop
Well, then we tell them in the nicest possible terms to do one and encourage business elsewhere. leaving with no deal will not stop the eu insisting on the backstop
There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
EDIT
I'd go further and make it government policy that we will prioritise trade deals with anywhere and everywhere else and give them time to establish a foothold in the UK market before we discuss any trade deal with the EU. That should encourage others to get cracking on agreeing deals with us.
Edited by psi310398 on Friday 5th April 21:10
psi310398 said:
Well, then we tell them in the nicest possible terms to do one and encourage business elsewhere.
There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
Glad you agree that if we leave with no deal to avoid the backstop we will not have a fta with the eu as i stated.There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
citizensm1th said:
jsf said:
citizensm1th said:
jsf said:
Leaving with no deal would not need a backstop. Both UK and Ireland have said they won't implement any border infrastructure and would manage the required controls away from the border.
It's a completely contrived requirement used to strong arm the UK and should be rejected.
if we did that we can kiss goodbye to any trade deal with the euIt's a completely contrived requirement used to strong arm the UK and should be rejected.
If you think they don't want to trade with us, or use our services because a few failed politicians in Brussels get the hump, i have a bridge to sell you.
citizensm1th said:
Glad you agree that if we leave with no deal to avoid the backstop we will not have a fta with the eu as i stated.
Not until one is agreed, certainly.But I'm really not sure what the overall benefit to the UK of having one is when we are in such a massive trade deficit with the EU and in surplus elsewhere.
EDIT
Oh, and I want a clean break leave because I think that will be a good thing in itself, not to avoid the backstop.
citizensm1th said:
Oh i have no doubt they will offer us a trade deal, it will just have a few conditions attached such as the back stop and a few billion they think we owe them. in fact they have already stated that in the event of a no deal brexit any trade deal will be conditional on the back stop and the cash.
leaving with no deal will not stop the eu insisting on the backstop
Genuinely, there is no reason why we would have to accept it. leaving with no deal will not stop the eu insisting on the backstop
German Economists have run the figures, and as we have a deficit, dropping tariffs on our side unilaterally benefits us - and we are not dependent on the EU to give us an FTA.
If you haven't realised it yet, this is why the EU is desperate to keep us talking - a WTO exit puts them at a huge disadvantage and allows us to 'cherry pick' the deals we actually want.
It's funny how the Remainers absolutely refuse to acknowledge this:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr...
Article said:
No question, the customs union certainly makes it easier for multinational companies to ship parts and semi-finished goods backwards and forwards across the Channel. But the real test of the worth of the current system is whether it has done anything to improve Britain’s trade performance.
...
Given that the customs union mostly affects physical trade goods, it might be thought that goods exports to the EU would be the best-performing category of the four. In fact, it is comfortably the worst, not just in recent years but over the past two decades, during which time exports have grown by just 0.2% on average. That’s actually worse than growth in goods exports to the rest of the world (up 3.3% a year).
...
Given that the customs union mostly affects physical trade goods, it might be thought that goods exports to the EU would be the best-performing category of the four. In fact, it is comfortably the worst, not just in recent years but over the past two decades, during which time exports have grown by just 0.2% on average. That’s actually worse than growth in goods exports to the rest of the world (up 3.3% a year).
Tuna said:
If you haven't realised it yet, this is why the EU is desperate to keep us talking - a WTO exit puts them at a huge disadvantage and allows us to 'cherry pick' the deals we actually want.
so no chance of the EU not extending the brexit deadline then? If they are so desperate to keep us talking it kind of negates your argument you made in the last thread about the uk being back in the no deal zone again"If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
Another triumph of EU regulation and oversight from elsewhere on Pistonheads:
Maybe we would be justified in taking back control? Whoever the current arrangements are working for, it is not the UK consumer...
JPJPJP said:
https://www.dw.com/cda/en/european-commission-find...
German car giants VW, Daimler and BMW colluded to restrict the development of technology to clean emissions from passenger cars, the European Commission said in preliminary findings from its antitrust probe.
From 2006 to 2014, the three German automakers conspired to limit the development and rollout of emission cleaning technology for passenger cars sold in Europe.
The talks were aimed at restricting competition and "breached EU antitrust rules."
Two types of technology, specifically, were restricted: one to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel cars and another to reduce harmful particulate matter from petrol engine cars.
The companies "denied consumers the opportunity to buy less polluting cars" despite the technology being available.
The EU asleep at the wheel, yet again? Amazing just how dozy they become when German manufacturers are involved.German car giants VW, Daimler and BMW colluded to restrict the development of technology to clean emissions from passenger cars, the European Commission said in preliminary findings from its antitrust probe.
From 2006 to 2014, the three German automakers conspired to limit the development and rollout of emission cleaning technology for passenger cars sold in Europe.
The talks were aimed at restricting competition and "breached EU antitrust rules."
Two types of technology, specifically, were restricted: one to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel cars and another to reduce harmful particulate matter from petrol engine cars.
The companies "denied consumers the opportunity to buy less polluting cars" despite the technology being available.
Maybe we would be justified in taking back control? Whoever the current arrangements are working for, it is not the UK consumer...
psi310398 said:
Well, then we tell them in the nicest possible terms to do one and encourage business elsewhere.
There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
EDIT
I'd go further and make it government policy that we will prioritise trade deals with anywhere and everywhere else and give them time to establish a foothold in the UK market before we discuss any trade deal with the EU. That should encourage others to get cracking on agreeing deals with us.
I might be totally wrong on this so please correct my understanding.....so we eventually leave with Mays capitulation deal. We can’t unilaterally leave.There is nothing that the EU makes that isn't made elsewhere. If the EU wishes to price its businesses out of a lucrative market, it can fill its boots.
EDIT
I'd go further and make it government policy that we will prioritise trade deals with anywhere and everywhere else and give them time to establish a foothold in the UK market before we discuss any trade deal with the EU. That should encourage others to get cracking on agreeing deals with us.
Edited by psi310398 on Friday 5th April 21:10
At this point what stops the remaining EU states lining up to force conditions on our leaving and getting a trade deal, France fishing, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, financial trade......and at the end we have been royally humped, especially as the no deal baseline has been negated? Am I reading the WA wrong as regards to potential/likely outcome
citizensm1th said:
so no chance of the EU not extending the brexit deadline then? If they are so desperate to keep us talking it kind of negates your argument you made in the last thread about the uk being back in the no deal zone again
"If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
It is completely conceivable that they value other things more, and some of them sense that a never-ending disengagement with an abrupt exit possible at any time in the next year/24 months helps none if them. "If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
Their world will continue to turn if we do leave on the 12th and they'll shrug their collective shoulders and say "it was worth a try".
Conservative peer Michael Lord hit out at Remainer Lord Bilimoria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2msIeJg4lp8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2msIeJg4lp8
psi310398 said:
citizensm1th said:
so no chance of the EU not extending the brexit deadline then? If they are so desperate to keep us talking it kind of negates your argument you made in the last thread about the uk being back in the no deal zone again
"If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
It is completely conceivable that they value other things more, and some of them sense that a never-ending disengagement with an abrupt exit possible at any time in the next year/24 months helps none if them. "If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
Their world will continue to turn if we do leave on the 12th and they'll shrug their collective shoulders and say "it was worth a try".
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Conservative peer Michael Lord hit out at Remainer Lord Bilimoria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2msIeJg4lp8
did you see betty boothroyd savaging borishttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2msIeJg4lp8
The full results of that poll are:
If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
I,m not too sure i would take much notice of any polls, least of all one that polls 101% as this one does..
If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
I,m not too sure i would take much notice of any polls, least of all one that polls 101% as this one does..
scoobster999 said:
I might be totally wrong on this so please correct my understanding.....so we eventually leave with Mays capitulation deal. We can’t unilaterally leave.
At this point what stops the remaining EU states lining up to force conditions on our leaving and getting a trade deal, France fishing, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, financial trade......and at the end we have been royally humped, especially as the no deal baseline has been negated? Am I reading the WA wrong as regards to potential/likely outcome
The law hasn't changed (yet). We can still unilaterally leave. Even after the Cooper Bill is passed, Parliament still needs to decide to do something. At this point what stops the remaining EU states lining up to force conditions on our leaving and getting a trade deal, France fishing, Spain, Gibraltar, Germany, financial trade......and at the end we have been royally humped, especially as the no deal baseline has been negated? Am I reading the WA wrong as regards to potential/likely outcome
AIUI, it has four options (but only three in its full power to effect):
Accept the WA (as revised/negotiated afresh with the EU etc)
Revoke A50
Fail to do something and the EWA kicks in when the current extension lapses
Instruct the PM to seek another extension (but it can't negotiate itself and can't, perish the thought, prevent TM from cocking up/sabotaging the negotiation.) It can't prevent the request being turned down (and then we're out) and the UK can only accept or decline the term and conditions attached to any extension offered.
Parliament has so far failed to do anything decisive except think it has bought more time/control and there is little to suggest that odds are more than even that it will find a way forward in time to avoid us leaving on 12 April.
GT119 said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
GT119 said:
The full results of that poll are:
If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
Interesting.If you had to choose, which of the following would you most prefer?
No deal Brexit 41%
Long delay to Brexit & UK taking part in EU Parliament elections 35%
May's deal Brexit 16%
Don't know 9%
But these polls mean nothing and seem to change depending on who wants what.
The best sign was in 2016
My only interest in them is to confirm my own belief that Parliament’s position on no deal is correct and that no deal has never had majority support from the electorate.
citizensm1th said:
so no chance of the EU not extending the brexit deadline then? If they are so desperate to keep us talking it kind of negates your argument you made in the last thread about the uk being back in the no deal zone again
"If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
The default at the moment is no deal before the end of the month. If Lab/Con cannot agree to a deal, that's what will happen... unless the EU chooses to extend."If Labour and Cons have failed to find agreement, doesn't that move us back to No Deal again?"
no chance of no deal if the eu are that desperate May will get any extension she asks for if that's the case.
So far, they have extended (despite previously saying they wouldn't under any circumstances). Tusk is now talking about a 12 month extension (if i'm up to date... could be wrong there). So yes, they want to keep us talking and want to avoid no deal - anyone pretending that's for altruistic reasons is being optimistic at best.
At the same time, there is pressure in the EU membership to avoid the UK being involved in the forthcoming Euro Elections.
So I think all that I've said still holds. Just don't expect me to predict the outcome as I have no idea who or what will win out of the current factions.
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