Gulf of Oman incidents

[Biker 1]

Countdown said:

The Saudis want to put the Iranians" back in their box". They;re concerned about the spreading Shia influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and the Yemen. Israel also sees Iran as its' only potential rival in the region and is extremely worried about Iran developing nukes (at the moment it can bomb Iranian targets at will, not so easy if they might nuke you) . It suits both of them to get the US to give the Iranians a good kicking.

^^This.
Why risk your own assets/service personnel when you can get Uncle Sam to do it for you? The Sunni/Shia thing has been rumbling on for 800-odd years. Saudi/Iran are involved in various proxy wars, which are basically at stalemate.

[Gecko1978]

Biker 1 said:

Countdown said:

The Saudis want to put the Iranians" back in their box". They;re concerned about the spreading Shia influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and the Yemen. Israel also sees Iran as its' only potential rival in the region and is extremely worried about Iran developing nukes (at the moment it can bomb Iranian targets at will, not so easy if they might nuke you) . It suits both of them to get the US to give the Iranians a good kicking.

^^This.
Why risk your own assets/service personnel when you can get Uncle Sam to do it for you? The Sunni/Shia thing has been rumbling on for 800-odd years. Saudi/Iran are involved in various proxy wars, which are basically at stalemate.

A stalemate I get, Attacking Iran who will then kill 10s of thousands in Saudi, just does not make sense. If Iran got nuclear weapons and it's a big if the stalemate would be lost I agree but as at today they are hampered in that aim.

[BlackLabel]

Bomb an oil facility in Saudi Arabia and condemnation flies in from world leaders at a rate of knots; bomb a wedding, funeral, school, hospital etc in Yemen and next to nothing is said about it.

An interesting world we live in.

[Penelope Stopit]

BlackLabel said:

Bomb an oil facility in Saudi Arabia and condemnation flies in from world leaders at a rate of knots; bomb a wedding, funeral, school, hospital etc in Yemen and next to nothing is said about it.

An interesting world we live in.

Yes but fortunately some people/countries don't believe much that comes from the USA or Saudi

[IanH755]

Gecko1978 said:

A stalemate I get, Attacking Iran who will then kill 10s of thousands in Saudi, just does not make sense. If Iran got nuclear weapons and it's a big if the stalemate would be lost I agree but as at today they are hampered in that aim.

You're thinking too "big" with War, it'd not be a War but a series of very small skirmishes at best.

Basically Iran just told SA "Get back in your box regarding Yemen etc or we'll hurt you financially" so now SA has to decide what small punitive action the can take in revenge without risking a full conflict whilst appearing strong to their allies. Its basic Real Politik in action, both sides (and their main allies) not wanting full war but needing to sort out the friction between themselves with a little pushing and shoving.

[Countdown]

IanH755 said:

You're thinking too "big" with War, it'd not be a War but a series of very small skirmishes at best.

Basically Iran just told SA "Get back in your box regarding Yemen etc or we'll hurt you financially" so now SA has to decide what small punitive action the can take in revenge without risking a full conflict whilst appearing strong to their allies. Its basic Real Politik in action, both sides (and their main allies) not wanting full war but needing to sort out the friction between themselves with a little pushing and shoving.

Depends on what you mean by “small”. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the neo-con faction in the US are determined to neutralise any and all Iranian power in the Gulf. And in order to do this the main thing they are have to do is to permanently eliminate the capability of the Iranians to build nukes under any circumstances. Israel and KSA don’t have the capability of doing this on their own, they need the US to do it for them.

With Trump they thought they had a malleable weak-minded POTUS who could be flattered/pressured/bullied into doing what they want. Surprisingly he’s been quite obstinate.

I think we’ll see limited action by the US before the next elections. There’s nothing that gives the US electorate a bigger hard-on than seeing their military technology in action and it will give Trump a much-needed boost in the polls.

[Blue62]

Countdown said:

Depends on what you mean by “small”. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the neo-con faction in the US are determined to neutralise any and all Iranian power in the Gulf. And in order to do this the main thing they are have to do is to permanently eliminate the capability of the Iranians to build nukes under any circumstances. Israel and KSA don’t have the capability of doing this on their own, they need the US to do it for them.

With Trump they thought they had a malleable weak-minded POTUS who could be flattered/pressured/bullied into doing what they want. Surprisingly he’s been quite obstinate.

I think we’ll see limited action by the US before the next elections. There’s nothing that gives the US electorate a bigger hard-on than seeing their military technology in action and it will give Trump a much-needed boost in the polls.

I’m not sure Trump wants a war at any price leading up to the election, it’s not clear that the US public want a war or will be swayed by one, quite the opposite. He backed out of drone strikes and has shown Israel that he can’t be relied on to deliver their agenda. When he ripped up the Nuclear treaty he made the world less safe and bears some responsibility for backing Iran into a corner.

Not that I have any allegiance, Iran is a repressive, theocratic regime that sponsors Terror through various proxies. The US supports equally repressive theocracies (Saudi among them) who sponsor terror through its allies and proxies.

[Countdown]

Blue62 said:

I’m not sure Trump wants a war at any price leading up to the election, it’s not clear that the US public want a war or will be swayed by one, quite the opposite. He backed out of drone strikes and has shown Israel that he can’t be relied on to deliver their agenda. When he ripped up the Nuclear treaty he made the world less safe and bears some responsibility for backing Iran into a corner.

I have to disagree. Drone strikes continue apace, He's acquiesced to every single possible Israeli request (moving the US embassy to jerusalem, staying quiet about the wide-scale annexation of land in the West Bank and the massive settlement building plan, ripping up the JCPOA was wholly at the behest of the israeli and neo-con lobby)

I agree that he's reluctant to go to war but probably because he's scared about how strong the backlash might be and how it affects HIS poll ratings.

[Blue62]

Countdown said:

I have to disagree. Drone strikes continue apace, He's acquiesced to every single possible Israeli request (moving the US embassy to jerusalem, staying quiet about the wide-scale annexation of land in the West Bank and the massive settlement building plan, ripping up the JCPOA was wholly at the behest of the israeli and neo-con lobby)

I agree that he's reluctant to go to war but probably because he's scared about how strong the backlash might be and how it affects HIS poll ratings.

I think we generally agree, I don't think Trump has an appetite for war because of his poll ratings and the Iranians know it, Israel is slowly learning that he can't be relied upon. You seem well versed on the issues, may I ask your particular interest?

[red_slr]

I think its more simple than all that... no country can afford a war at the moment. The actual cost of the first Gulf War was around $60Bn. However the cost to the countries in the aftermath was 100s of Bns.

The Iraq War 13 years later cost well over $1Tn and is still costing countries today. Estimates are total end cost might be well north of $2Tn.

A war with Iran, you must be looking at $3-5Tn.. for what, bragging rights down the golf course?

[hidetheelephants]

Countdown said:

Blue62 said:

I’m not sure Trump wants a war at any price leading up to the election, it’s not clear that the US public want a war or will be swayed by one, quite the opposite. He backed out of drone strikes and has shown Israel that he can’t be relied on to deliver their agenda. When he ripped up the Nuclear treaty he made the world less safe and bears some responsibility for backing Iran into a corner.

I have to disagree. Drone strikes continue apace, He's acquiesced to every single possible Israeli request (moving the US embassy to jerusalem, staying quiet about the wide-scale annexation of land in the West Bank and the massive settlement building plan, ripping up the JCPOA was wholly at the behest of the israeli and neo-con lobby)

I agree that he's reluctant to go to war but probably because he's scared about how strong the backlash might be and how it affects HIS poll ratings.

With this in mind it will be interesting to see what comes out of the Israeli election, if Bibi gets defenestrated, even if not jailed, then the cap might be kept on the bottle.

[Countdown]

Blue62 said:

I think we generally agree, I don't think Trump has an appetite for war because of his poll ratings and the Iranians know it, Israel is slowly learning that he can't be relied upon. You seem well versed on the issues, may I ask your particular interest?

My parents are originally from that area and I've always had a strong interest in politics.

[Fundoreen]

KSA and USA are probably plotting a similar retaliation when it all dies down. If trump started counting down a clock Iran may as well launch their own response first.
I dunno why they cant accept it was houthi and the blowstuffup using weapons supplied by Iran.
All the dead civilians in schools and hospitals killed by the saudi's were enabled by US and UK weapons and that doesnt seem to matter.
Wonder if the old king is even aware of what a mess his chosen one has caused.
Maybe they can have a peace conference for a change. You make more friends with a smile.

[Mothersruin]

Fundoreen said:

KSA and USA are probably plotting a similar retaliation when it all dies down. If trump started counting down a clock Iran may as well launch their own response first.
I dunno why they cant accept it was houthi and the blowstuffup using weapons supplied by Iran.
All the dead civilians in schools and hospitals killed by the saudi's were enabled by US and UK weapons and that doesnt seem to matter.
Wonder if the old king is even aware of what a mess his chosen one has caused.
Maybe they can have a peace conference for a change. You make more friends with a smile.

Lol. The truest saying I heard during over a decade of living in the Middle East was, 'The bigger the smile, the bigger the knife'.

[NRS]

Blue62 said:

Countdown said:

I have to disagree. Drone strikes continue apace, He's acquiesced to every single possible Israeli request (moving the US embassy to jerusalem, staying quiet about the wide-scale annexation of land in the West Bank and the massive settlement building plan, ripping up the JCPOA was wholly at the behest of the israeli and neo-con lobby)

I agree that he's reluctant to go to war but probably because he's scared about how strong the backlash might be and how it affects HIS poll ratings.

I think we generally agree, I don't think Trump has an appetite for war because of his poll ratings and the Iranians know it, Israel is slowly learning that he can't be relied upon. You seem well versed on the issues, may I ask your particular interest?

I think he’s anti-war, and it’s one of the few things he actually sticks by as much as possible. In general he’s an idiot who flips around more than a fish, but he has a few key things which seem to be constants overall, and war is one of them IMO.

[PRTVR]

Byker28i said:

US have released their 'evidence'



Spot the north arrow on the image



https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/15/world/middleeas...

Anybody else find the accuracy of these so called drone's amazing, precision striking the same point on each of the vessels,
Surely after the first hit there will be a blast and a fire that would impact the following drone's ?

[Countdown]

PRTVR said:

Anybody else find the accuracy of these so called drone's amazing, precision striking the same point on each of the vessels,
Surely after the first hit there will be a blast and a fire that would impact the following drone's ?

i thought that as well - however, given that the Houthis said they were behind it, I didn't think it was a "False Flag" like the tanker bombings a few months ago.

[NRS]

Was it not a combination of missiles and drones? I'd assume unless very close to the shockwave then any explosion etc should not have a big impact on the other drones/missiles.

[Fundoreen]

You would need some closer investigation by not the ksa and usa.
Yes houthi probably launched an attack and his something but these pics could be doctored.
Thse 4 domes hit in the same place could be because the ladder going up is in the same place.
Unimaginative KSA fellow could have just gone up and planted a charge in the same place on some unused/obsolete dome thing.
Im happy to believe houthi and the blowfish did it as to deny them is insinuating they are just silly foreigners.
Lets see if KSA buy any more fabulous weapons off the big picture board trump takes with him everywhere in the middle east.
Probably never had to offer a discount but the markup must be incredible.

[BlackLabel]

The Saudi armed forces, in particular their Air Force, are lavishly equipped with some of the best military gear money can buy yet when it comes to retaliation for this drone attack it’s America and it’s allies that are most likely to take action. The Saudis should fight their own wars. They are happy enough to bomb civilians in Yemen or take military action against protesters in Bahrain yet when it comes to Iran they want others to do their dirty work.

“NEW YORK (AP) — Britain has concluded that Iran was responsible for attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Sunday. He said the U.K. would consider taking part in a U.S.-led military effort to bolster the Gulf kingdom’s defenses.”

https://apnews.com/ee973164333e44f4b94ea590590f4ed...