How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
amusingduck said:
To be fair he doesn't say he thinks it will happen, just that if it did happen, that would be the reason why.
Although the "will be" does sound like an expectation, rather than a hypothetical "would be"
The if is by definition hypothetical ... Although the "will be" does sound like an expectation, rather than a hypothetical "would be"
There is no reason for another extension unless it is clearly linked to a mechanic which provides some form of clarity.
“Because we want more time to think about it” won’t wash with anybody.
“Because we will arrive at a definitive position endorsed by the electorate” is more compelling
Again, for clarity, I am not saying this is going to happen but do believe that it’s the only scenario under which an extension would be acceptable.
Jimboka said:
golf_addict said:
Seems to me that, after 3+ years, if we do end up in the ridiculous situation of fuel and medical shortages, it's little do with the Brexit decision and everything to do with the May and Hammond fiasco, not allowing the civil service to put proper plans in place.
No it’s not. It will be the fault of Johnson & his band of Brextremists who have contributed nothing constructive & blocked the compromise on offer. Their own people have warned them of the consequences. They can extend or revoke. Any stupid move is entirely their choice.Which will be blocked anyway & he will be the shortest reign PM in history. But that’s not the point
Brooking10 said:
The if is by definition hypothetical ...
There is no reason for another extension unless it is clearly linked to a mechanic which provides some form of clarity.
“Because we want more time to think about it” won’t wash with anybody.
“Because we will arrive at a definitive position endorsed by the electorate” is more compelling
Again, for clarity, I am not saying this is going to happen but do believe that it’s the only scenario under which an extension would be acceptable.
A scenario that would work would be the EU agreeing to talk about future arrangements so we would leave in the future knowing exactly what will happen and Northern Ireland is then a none issue.There is no reason for another extension unless it is clearly linked to a mechanic which provides some form of clarity.
“Because we want more time to think about it” won’t wash with anybody.
“Because we will arrive at a definitive position endorsed by the electorate” is more compelling
Again, for clarity, I am not saying this is going to happen but do believe that it’s the only scenario under which an extension would be acceptable.
Brooking10 said:
amusingduck said:
To be fair he doesn't say he thinks it will happen, just that if it did happen, that would be the reason why.
Although the "will be" does sound like an expectation, rather than a hypothetical "would be"
The if is by definition hypothetical ... Although the "will be" does sound like an expectation, rather than a hypothetical "would be"
amusingduck said:
You didn't say "if", that was my interpretation
You correctly interpreted it as hypothetical then.For additional clarity the suggestion of a second, revised, referendum was not an absolute.
IF there is an extension I consider it would need to be tied to such a vote
Does that pass the Clever Duck test ?
DeepEnd said:
On the last page we learnt that some brexiters are now asking remainers how on earth we can do anything better than no deal and accusing remainers of having no solutions to avoid no deal.
This feels rather different to all the previous boasts from brexiters about getting a great deal due to the German car industry etc.
At some level, can you recognise that this is a rather big shift in position?
That's not quite an accurate assessment though is it? This feels rather different to all the previous boasts from brexiters about getting a great deal due to the German car industry etc.
At some level, can you recognise that this is a rather big shift in position?
I do find it amazing that some on the Remain side have absolutely no recognition of the part that Remain politicians and pressure groups have played in getting us to the difficult situation we are in as a nation today. Senior British politicians going to Brussels to tell the EU not to negotiate and how to sabotage Brexit had absolutely no impact did it? May and Robbins concocting their own deal with Merkel is irrelevant? Constantly seeking to insult and divide and rubbish the UK has been immaterial to the mood of the country?
I genuinely think that some Remainers have become so blinkered in their determination to overcome the 2016 result at all costs, that they are blind to the damage they are doing. Maybe they just don't want to accept that warping the negotiations in the hope of securing BRINO instead of BREXIT was a bad thing to do? After all, it has left us with a deal that the HoC has rejected 3 times, but which some here still see as the solution, despite the warnings issued by all and sundry about the backstop and the compete clauses.
Brooking10 suggests another delay so we can determine what kind of exit we want via a Referendum. So now, apparently, the same populace that should never have been allowed to vote on the matter in the first place (according to some Remainers) is to be tasked with deciding on the nuances of the specific Exit provisions. Maybe if there is a second Referendum the Government will follow NickGnomes advice and allow only those people who have passed certain tests to take part..... ( a shudderingly Nazi concept...)
But of course, this does not get Remainers what they want, so, like a Trojan horse, it's just as likely that if any Referendum were to be forthcoming, it would end up including a Remain provision, and the Exit votes will be split amongst the various options...thereby allowing a minority Remain victory. " It is a moral majority because it is the most popular single choice" will likely be the narrative.
Anything to stop Brexit. The desperation of Remainers is palpable. It's more than a bit hypocritical guys when you keep banging on about the damage that Brexit will do, whilst being utterly oblivious to the fact that your antics are likely to be making that damage worse.
andymadmak said:
That's not quite an accurate assessment though is it?
I do find it amazing that some on the Remain side have absolutely no recognition of the part that Remain politicians and pressure groups have played in getting us to the difficult situation we are in as a nation today. Senior British politicians going to Brussels to tell the EU not to negotiate and how to sabotage Brexit had absolutely no impact did it? May and Robbins concocting their own deal with Merkel is irrelevant? Constantly seeking to insult and divide and rubbish the UK has been immaterial to the mood of the country?
I genuinely think that some Remainers have become so blinkered in their determination to overcome the 2016 result at all costs, that they are blind to the damage they are doing. Maybe they just don't want to accept that warping the negotiations in the hope of securing BRINO instead of BREXIT was a bad thing to do? After all, it has left us with a deal that the HoC has rejected 3 times, but which some here still see as the solution, despite the warnings issued by all and sundry about the backstop and the compete clauses.
Brooking10 suggests another delay so we can determine what kind of exit we want via a Referendum. So now, apparently, the same populace that should never have been allowed to vote on the matter in the first place (according to some Remainers) is to be tasked with deciding on the nuances of the specific Exit provisions. Maybe if there is a second Referendum the Government will follow NickGnomes advice and allow only those people who have passed certain tests to take part..... ( a shudderingly Nazi concept...)
But of course, this does not get Remainers what they want, so, like a Trojan horse, it's just as likely that if any Referendum were to be forthcoming, it would end up including a Remain provision, and the Exit votes will be split amongst the various options...thereby allowing a minority Remain victory. " It is a moral majority because it is the most popular single choice" will likely be the narrative.
Anything to stop Brexit. The desperation of Remainers is palpable. It's more than a bit hypocritical guys when you keep banging on about the damage that Brexit will do, whilst being utterly oblivious to the fact that your antics are likely to be making that damage worse.
There is no reason why a second ref needs to include a remain option.I do find it amazing that some on the Remain side have absolutely no recognition of the part that Remain politicians and pressure groups have played in getting us to the difficult situation we are in as a nation today. Senior British politicians going to Brussels to tell the EU not to negotiate and how to sabotage Brexit had absolutely no impact did it? May and Robbins concocting their own deal with Merkel is irrelevant? Constantly seeking to insult and divide and rubbish the UK has been immaterial to the mood of the country?
I genuinely think that some Remainers have become so blinkered in their determination to overcome the 2016 result at all costs, that they are blind to the damage they are doing. Maybe they just don't want to accept that warping the negotiations in the hope of securing BRINO instead of BREXIT was a bad thing to do? After all, it has left us with a deal that the HoC has rejected 3 times, but which some here still see as the solution, despite the warnings issued by all and sundry about the backstop and the compete clauses.
Brooking10 suggests another delay so we can determine what kind of exit we want via a Referendum. So now, apparently, the same populace that should never have been allowed to vote on the matter in the first place (according to some Remainers) is to be tasked with deciding on the nuances of the specific Exit provisions. Maybe if there is a second Referendum the Government will follow NickGnomes advice and allow only those people who have passed certain tests to take part..... ( a shudderingly Nazi concept...)
But of course, this does not get Remainers what they want, so, like a Trojan horse, it's just as likely that if any Referendum were to be forthcoming, it would end up including a Remain provision, and the Exit votes will be split amongst the various options...thereby allowing a minority Remain victory. " It is a moral majority because it is the most popular single choice" will likely be the narrative.
Anything to stop Brexit. The desperation of Remainers is palpable. It's more than a bit hypocritical guys when you keep banging on about the damage that Brexit will do, whilst being utterly oblivious to the fact that your antics are likely to be making that damage worse.
Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely or realistic scenario.
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 19th August 09:37
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/p...
Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
Brooking10 said:
There is no reason why a second ref needs to include a remain option.
Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
I think that if the second referendum idea gains any kind of traction, the clamour from the most ardent Remainers to add a Remain option will be deafening. Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
It's not a question of being fixated, it's a rational and reasonable analysis, based on the behaviour of Remainers over the past 3 years.
Mrr T said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/p...
Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
I thought we'd done away with landing cards for everyone?Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.
Showboating I rather expect.
andymadmak said:
I think that if the second referendum idea gains any kind of traction, the clamour from the most ardent Remainers to add a Remain option will be deafening.
It's not a question of being fixated, it's a rational and reasonable analysis, based on the behaviour of Remainers over the past 3 years.
And if it is an option, why should anybody who wishes to leave be concerned given that the will of the people is to leave ?It's not a question of being fixated, it's a rational and reasonable analysis, based on the behaviour of Remainers over the past 3 years.
That aside you’re projecting based on your personal dislike of what has happened post vote. There is no reason why Remain should feature in such a vote, it would be positioned by Boris as the people deciding and him successfully overseeing the Brexit option as determined by the electorate.
Brooking10 said:
Any extension will be to accommodate a second referendum
Said referendum will be to confirm the type of exit and serve as a proxy GE for Boris
I agree any further extension would be tied to the UK holding a vote of some sort to resolve the current impasse here. However, initially I think the EU may be satisfied to offer one purely because the UK is going to hold a General Election; if Boris is returned they'll have a choice of reopening the Withdrawal Agreement or accepting no deal (which is exactly where they are now) but if a pro-Remain government is elected that opens the door to a further referendum and potentially Brexit being reversed altogether (which is what they really want). Said referendum will be to confirm the type of exit and serve as a proxy GE for Boris
So if a General Election in the UK is likely then IMO the EU has nothing to lose and everything to gain by offering a further extension. However, what I don't see them doing is offering another extension just because the UK says it needs more time - I think they'll want to see something significant happening here which is likely to break the log-jam and at the moment I think that "something significant" is more likely to be a GE than a further referendum.
If we do ever get as far as a further referendum I think it will be initiated by a pro-Remain government and hence I think the choice on the ballot paper will probably be between a no deal Brexit and remain. "We've tried for years but can't get a reasonable deal out of the EU so the options are between No Deal or Remain" will, I suspect, be what we're told; that will then be depicted as a choice between a cosy "stay as we are in the EU" or armageddon...
Brooking10 said:
And if it is an option, why should anybody who wishes to leave be concerned given that the will of the people is to leave ?
I explained this in the first post.Brooking10 said:
That aside you’re projecting based on your personal dislike of what has happened post vote. There is no reason why Remain should feature in such a vote, it would be positioned by Boris as the people deciding and him successfully overseeing the Brexit option as determined by the electorate.
OK, well, we have differing views. andymadmak said:
Brooking10 said:
There is no reason why a second ref needs to include a remain option.
Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
I think that if the second referendum idea gains any kind of traction, the clamour from the most ardent Remainers to add a Remain option will be deafening. Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
It's not a question of being fixated, it's a rational and reasonable analysis, based on the behaviour of Remainers over the past 3 years.
It's pretty clear that if the establishment can force a referendum, they'll also force remain onto the paper and that if it's done via the Labour Party that the other thing will not be any sort of leave that leave voters would vote for. I expect that it would be remain vs stay in the CU and SM. Ie remain vs remain.
Yet Brooking thinks remain won't even be on one side of the paper.
Your point about this remain at all costs attitude skewing debate and opinion is absolutely spot on. I would have accepted 4-5 years to leave the EU back in 2016, but now after three years pissed up the wall by remainers and a clear desire to disregard my vote, my view is that if we don't leave in October then we won't leave at all. Even from this point I could accept further delay if there was any trust that we would leave, but remainers have killed that, so it's out out for me now.
DeepEnd said:
On the last page we learnt that some brexiters are now asking remainers how on earth we can do anything better than no deal and accusing remainers of having no solutions to avoid no deal.
This feels rather different to all the previous boasts from brexiters about getting a great deal due to the German car industry etc.
At some level, can you recognise that this is a rather big shift in position?
The government came in on a manifesto of "no deal over a bad deal". Parliament has rejected the deal, ergo it's a bad deal, so...what happens next?This feels rather different to all the previous boasts from brexiters about getting a great deal due to the German car industry etc.
At some level, can you recognise that this is a rather big shift in position?
andymadmak said:
Brooking10 said:
There is no reason why a second ref needs to include a remain option.
Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
I think that if the second referendum idea gains any kind of traction, the clamour from the most ardent Remainers to add a Remain option will be deafening. Why are you fixated on this ?
It’s not a likely it realistic scenario.
It's not a question of being fixated, it's a rational and reasonable analysis, based on the behaviour of Remainers over the past 3 years.
I see blaming remainers for this shambles is the game again. It was a brexit vote that brought us here. No excuses, no deflection.
It is not remainers fault that the dynamics here are what they are - EU politics would always the german trump car industry, just as you expect your vote to trump what is best for the UK economy.
andymadmak said:
Brooking10 said:
And if it is an option, why should anybody who wishes to leave be concerned given that the will of the people is to leave ?
I explained this in the first post.Brooking10 said:
That aside you’re projecting based on your personal dislike of what has happened post vote. There is no reason why Remain should feature in such a vote, it would be positioned by Boris as the people deciding and him successfully overseeing the Brexit option as determined by the electorate.
OK, well, we have differing views. What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
DeepEnd said:
It’s such a mess a remain option would be inevitable.
I see blaming remainers for this shambles is the game again. It was a brexit vote that brought us here. No excuses, no deflection.
It is not remainers fault that the dynamics here are what they are - EU politics would always the german trump car industry, just as you expect your vote to trump what is best for the UK economy.
The fact that the EU are more concerned about politics than economics is exactly why we should be leaving.I see blaming remainers for this shambles is the game again. It was a brexit vote that brought us here. No excuses, no deflection.
It is not remainers fault that the dynamics here are what they are - EU politics would always the german trump car industry, just as you expect your vote to trump what is best for the UK economy.
The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.
Brooking10 said:
That’s abundantly clear.
What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
I don't see Boris initiating another referendum, I think that would only happen at the instigation of a pro-Remain government following a GE. And if we ever get that far I'd be amazed if Remain didn't feature as an option on the ballot paper.....What you, and the chap above, are missing is that such a move would not be “forced by the establishment” or because of “Remoaners”
It would be a calculated political tactic from Johnson, designed to cement his position and hold himself out as having met his mandate to deliver Brexit.
The problem with a certain faction is that any mention of “the R word’ immediately clouds thought and raises suspicion.
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